What Changed This Update 12 Jul 2026 → 16 Jul 2026 · general run + B4b bench sweep

A full Stock-Analyst general run against the 14 Jul macro and portfolio. The valuation anchor did the heavy lifting: two prime AI-cohort names crossed into an outright DO NOT BUY (Palantir, Broadcom) and Microsoft de-rated to HOLD as rates rose and price ran — while CF Industries earned a genuine upgrade on a confirmed breakout. The gold and iron-ore miners were re-scored honestly against a falling commodity tape, so their medium-term amplification was withheld. CNQ.TO joins the watchlist; four Stopped names fall away.

Signal changes

• DowngradePLTR (Palantir) — HOLD → DO NOT BUY, all horizons. ~169x clean earnings is ~6x its warranted multiple — Gate 3 plus DNB Trigger 2 (deep-expensive and the armed AI-concentration tail).
• DowngradeAVGO (Broadcom) — HOLD → DO NOT BUY, all horizons. ~64x clean against ~27x warranted (2.4x) — the same DNB Trigger 2(b) with the armed cohort tail.
• DowngradeMSFT (Microsoft) — BUY / BUY / STRONG BUY → HOLD all. A clean valuation-band crossing to Fair (~1.0x warranted) as the 10-Y rose and price hit ~$400 — no gate, just the matrix. The DNB stayed dormant (Fair, not Expensive).
• UpgradeCF (CF Industries) — Short HOLD → BUY, Long BUY → STRONG BUY. A confirmed 50/200-DMA breakout on a widening nitrogen-to-gas spread; still Fair, so amplification is allowed.
• UpgradeDLO (DLocal) — Long BUY → STRONG BUY as the EM-recovery driver and an Attractive valuation align.
• TrimAEM.TO & RIO — Medium STRONG BUY → BUY. Gold and iron ore are rolling over; the commodity-trend overlay withholds medium-term amplification, so only the long horizon carries STRONG BUY.
• TrimIFC.TO (Intact) — Short BUY → HOLD. The breakout to a 52-week high came on thin (~0.5x) volume — the short technical-confirmation cap says buy on confirmation.
• GateABCL (AbCellera) — binary-event gate now triggered (the ABCL635 Phase-2 readout entered its Q3 window); Short and Medium capped at HOLD, Long BUY holds.

Portfolio Watchlist & membership

• Grid +CF enters Materials · US on its new live short-term BUY.
• Grid −MSFT (Technology · US) and IFC.TO (Financials · CA) leave the grid — both short signals flipped to HOLD.
• PromotedCNQ.TO (Canadian Natural Resources) joins the watchlist — the Stock-Finder rated it Watchlist in Energy after the oil shock; first report HOLD / BUY / BUY.
• RemovedADPT, C, JPM, UNH — Stopped names that fell due and were dropped (the Finder no longer rates them Watchlist-grade).
• B4b sweep13 bench-candidates promoted to try to fill the four empty funded grid cells (Industrials, Info-Tech, Financials, Comm-Services · US): FIX, POWL, MU, APP, INTU, ALAB, ACGL, CME, CB, ICE, ARES, SYF, TTWO. None is a live short-term BUY, so all four cells stay empty (the honest read of a HOLD-heavy tape) — every name joins as a tracked incumbent, and six carry a Medium/Long BUY (TTWO, ACGL, CB, INTU, ARES, SYF). One outlier: ALAB (Astera Labs) came back an outright DO NOT BUY — ~106x forward earnings, Gate 3 plus DNB Trigger 2(b) on the armed AI-concentration tail. Every report cleared the two-layer independent-audit gate.

Refreshed with no signal change: MNO.TO, AU, NEM, NU, MELI, SOFI, WCP.TO. All 17 reports cleared the two-layer correctness audit (author self-audit plus three independent fresh-agent auditors) before publish; sector weights are sourced from the 14 Jul portfolio state.