Kinross Gold is a Toronto-headquartered senior gold producer that mines and refines gold (with by-product silver) from a diversified portfolio of assets across the Americas and West Africa — principally Tasiast (Mauritania), Paracatu (Brazil), La Coipa (Chile), and Fort Knox, Round Mountain, Bald Mountain and the Great Bear development project (US/Canada). Its core business is simple: it converts ore into refined gold sold at the prevailing spot price, so its profits move almost one-for-one with the gold price less its cost of production. What distinguishes Kinross is scale (roughly 2.0 million gold-equivalent ounces a year), a long reserve/resource life, a de-risked balance sheet (net cash after years of debt reduction), and a growth pipeline (Great Bear in Ontario, Round Mountain Phase X, Lobo-Marte in Chile) that is unusual among mid-cap peers. For a reader, think of it as a diversified, mid-tier, cash-generative gold miner — more leveraged to the gold price than a low-cost leader like Agnico, but far cheaper on cash-flow multiples.
Lifecycle: mature cash cow. Kinross is a diversified senior gold producer running ~2.0 Moz/yr across seven-plus operating mines on three continents. After a multi-year debt-reduction programme it now sits in a net-cash position (~US$1.9B), funds a growing dividend and buyback, and is self-financing a high-return growth pipeline (Great Bear in Ontario, Round Mountain Phase X, Lobo-Marte in Chile). The business quality here is about durability and cash conversion, not secular growth — it is a price-taker whose edge is a long reserve life, a de-risked balance sheet, and a cost position good enough to stay strongly cash-generative deep into the cycle.
| Quality sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability (ROE / ROA) | ROE 37.0% · ROA 21.4% — exceptional, gold-price-aided | 88 |
| Margins | Operating margin 52.5% · net margin 37.5% · Q2 AISC margin US$2,662/oz (realized $4,483 – AISC $1,821) | 86 |
| Balance sheet | Net cash ~US$1.9B · current ratio 2.9 · D/E low ex-lease | 85 |
| Cost position (AISC) | FY26 guide AISC US$1,730/oz — MID-tier (Agnico ~$1,300, Barrick ~$1,450, Newmont ~$1,600) | 62 |
| Asset quality / jurisdiction | Diversified but weighted to Mauritania (Tasiast) & Brazil (Paracatu) — EM risk premium | 60 |
| Reserve life / pipeline | Long-life reserves + Great Bear/Round Mountain X/Lobo-Marte growth — above mid-cap norm | 78 |
| Capital discipline | Deleveraged, restored dividend + buyback; FY26 capex US$1.5B disciplined | 80 |
| Peer | Scale | AISC (approx.) | P/NAV (approx.) | Positioning vs K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kinross (K.TO) | ~2.0 Moz/yr | US$1,730 | ~0.85x | Cheapest of the group on cash-flow; mid-tier cost; EM-weighted |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM) | ~3.4 Moz/yr | ~US$1,300 | ~1.5x+ | Low-cost, tier-1 jurisdiction leader — premium multiple, the quality benchmark |
| Barrick (ABX.TO) | ~3.9 Moz/yr | ~US$1,450 | ~0.9x | Larger, copper optionality, more jurisdiction noise (Mali) |
| Newmont (NEM) | ~6.0 Moz/yr | ~US$1,600 | ~1.0x | Largest; higher cost post-Newcrest; execution-recovery story |
Share trajectory stable, competitive threat low. Kinross's investment case is explicitly a valuation-discount / gold-leverage case relative to Agnico, not a quality-leadership case — which is why the signal leans on Valuation and the gold Driver rather than on moat.
Kinross is cheap on every cash-based measure, and Q2's record free cash flow (US$727M attributable, >US$1.5B in H1) has made it cheaper still since the last report even as the share price barely moved. The anchor for a producer is P/NAV and cash-flow yield, not the earnings multiple — and on those Kinross trades at a discount to its own history and to Agnico.
| Metric | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| P/NAV (primary anchor) | ~0.85x | Discount to senior-producer group; below Agnico ~1.5x |
| EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 7.0x | Cheap; lower still on spot |
| Clean P/E (TTM) | 8.7x | Down from 9.5x (20 Jul) as earnings grew |
| Forward P/E | 7.9x | Assumes gold near spot |
| FCF yield (CAD-consistent) | ~10.5% | FY run-rate ~US$3.0B FCF / C$38.4B cap |
| Clean PEG | ~0.75 | Growth gold-price-aided; treat with care |
| Dividend yield | 0.68% | Small; payout ratio ~6% — room to grow |
| P/B | 3.0x | Elevated — book understates gold reserves |
The single dominant driver is the gold price, and it is genuinely two-sided right now — which is exactly why the score lands at 63 rather than above the 65 amplification line. We derive it bottom-up:
| Driver component | Reading | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| Price LEVEL | Realized US$4,483/oz in Q2 (+37% YoY) vs AISC US$1,821 → US$2,662/oz margin; spot ~US$4,070 still ~US$2,250 margin — exceptional | pushes UP |
| Price TREND (mandatory overlay) | GLD US$371.3 below falling 50-DMA (386) and 200-DMA (412); weekly downtrend; 4wk ~flat, 8wk down. Monthly uptrend intact — a live downtrend | CAPS it |
| Structural (de-dollarisation / CB buying) | Central-bank accumulation + reserve diversification intact — durable multi-year tailwind | pushes UP (long) |
| Geopolitical safe-haven | LIVE — gold broke >US$4,070 on 31 Jul on Mideast airstrike headlines; episodic bid | marginal UP |
Honest score = 63. The record margin and structural de-dollarisation bid would justify a high-60s driver on level alone — but the mandatory commodity-trend overlay finds gold in a live downtrend below its falling 50/200-DMA, and per the skill a downtrend removes short amplification and holds the driver below 65. That is the sole reason medium stays BUY rather than STRONG BUY (valuation is already "attractive," not Full/Expensive, so valuation is not the constraint). If gold reclaims its 50-DMA on the current safe-haven bid, the driver crosses 65 and medium upgrades — that is the specific catalyst to watch.
| Horizon | Gold read | Amplification |
|---|---|---|
| Short (1–3mo) | Downtrend below falling 50-DMA — Headwind | NO amp (removes short amplification) |
| Medium (1–6mo) | Structural Tailwind, trend still repairing | Modest — driver 63 < 65, no STRONG-BUY amp |
| Long (6–18mo) | Structural bull (CB buying, de-dollarisation) dominates | Amplifies to STRONG BUY |
Materials maps to XLB Outperform (medium) / Strong-Outperform (long) in the current macro report — the de-dollarisation / real-asset gold bid is the sector's dominant driver. Economic-alignment pressure is a Tailwind and roughly matches the stock's own gold Driver. Per the amplification rule, a Tailwind alignment amplifies to STRONG BUY on medium/long ONLY if the Driver score ≥ 65 and valuation is not Full/Expensive. Valuation is attractive (pass), but Driver = 63 (< 65) because gold is in a live downtrend — so the amplification fires on the LONG horizon (structural bull dominates) but NOT on medium, which holds at BUY. Trend-Following (aligned with a live sector tailwind), conviction 64.
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-20
Timing is the clear weak pillar. K.TO is in a strong_downtrend on the daily, below its 20/50/200-day moving averages (33.5 / 35.9 / 40.1), and the weekly is a downtrend. Against that, the tape is stabilizing: daily MACD histogram has turned up (+0.20), RSI is a neutral 42.6 (not capitulating), the 15-minute is "recovering," and price has held the ~C$31–31.25 support through the Q2 print. Confluence is bearish but no longer accelerating.
| Timing sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Daily trend | strong_downtrend, below SMA20/50/200 | 30 |
| Weekly trend | downtrend, below EMA20/50 | 35 |
| Monthly trend | uptrend intact (EMA50 19.9 far below) | 72 |
| Momentum (RSI/MACD) | RSI 42.6 neutral; daily MACD hist turning up | 48 |
| Relative strength | In line with GDX/sector; gold miners weak group (DUST +28% MoM) | 45 |
| Support integrity | Held ~C$31.0–31.25 through earnings | 55 |
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) | High | — | — | Yes | Real-yield / USD read — the gold price's key macro lever |
| 2026-08-13 | US CPI (Jul) | High | — | — | Yes | Inflation surprise moves real yields → gold → K |
| 2026-09-16 | FOMC decision | High | — | — | Yes | Rate path sets the opportunity cost of holding gold |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Kinross Q2 2026 earnings | US$0.71 (adj US$0.71) | US$0.66 | +7.6% EPS beat | Beat — record H1 FCF, guidance reaffirmed; stock sold the news |
| 2026-07-31 | Gold spot | ~US$4,070/oz | — | Broke >US$4,100 on Mideast airstrike headlines | Safe-haven bid live; still below falling 50-DMA |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC (late Jul) | Hold | Hold | As expected | No change to the real-yield backdrop |
The gold price — and therefore Kinross — trades off real yields and the USD. The 1 Aug payrolls and 13 Aug CPI are the near-term swing events: a soft print reclaims the 50-DMA (driver crosses 65, medium upgrades); a hot print extends the downtrend and keeps short at HOLD.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | ↑ | 56.2 | 6.94 / 7.39 (hist -0.44) | S 32 / R 53.6 | Resistance breakout | 0.79x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | ↓ | 42.6 | -1.78 / -0.71 | S 30.9 / R 40.3 | — | 0.95x |
| Daily | Strong downtrend | ↓↓ | 42.6 | -0.79 / -0.98 (hist +0.20) | S 31.25 / R 36.3 | Support breakdown | 1.88x |
| Hourly | Downtrend | ↓ | 53.6 | -0.18 / -0.23 (hist +0.05) | S 31.6 / R 33.9 | — | 1.89x |
| 15-min | Recovering | → | 65.1 | 0.07 / -0.03 (hist +0.10) | S 32.0 / R 33.6 | Resistance breakout | 3.86x |
| Confluence: Bearish (stabilizing) · MTF Score 38 | |||||||
Five-timeframe confluence is bearish: the monthly remains a structural uptrend, but the weekly and daily are downtrends and the daily is a strong_downtrend below all its moving averages. The near-term frames (hourly/15-min) show the tape stabilizing and starting to recover after the Q2 print. Net: a structural uptrend under near-term pressure — consistent with a fundamental BUY held to HOLD on the short horizon by weak timing.
K.TO daily close, May–Jul 2026 (CAD). Strong downtrend from ~C$44 to ~C$32, holding the C$31 support through the 29-Jul Q2 print; below the falling 50- and 200-DMA.
Gold reclaims its 50-DMA and breaks to new highs (>US$4,800/oz) on de-dollarisation, renewed central-bank buying and a sustained geopolitical bid. Kinross delivers its 2.0 Moz guidance, FCF compounds above US$3B, and the market re-rates the P/NAV discount toward the peer group (~1.1–1.2x). Approaches the analyst high (C$64.6). Gold leverage works to the upside.
Gold holds a US$3,900–$4,300 range — elevated but rangebound. Kinross executes 2.0 Moz at AISC ~US$1,730, generates ~US$3B FCF, funds growth + buyback, and the discount narrows modestly toward P/NAV ~1.0x. Re-rates to roughly the analyst mean (C$54)/our fair value C$50 as the downtrend base-builds. Most probable path.
Gold reverts to US$3,300–$3,500 as real yields firm and the USD rebounds — the peak-earnings risk crystallizes: realized price falls, FCF compresses, and the optically cheap multiple re-rates lower on falling earnings. A jurisdiction shock (Mauritania/Ghana tax or permitting) would compound it. Breaks the C$31 support toward the low-C$20s.
Forecast: 1 of 3 groups met (Fundamental) → Half-Size. The Technical group unlocks a full-size add on a C$35.9 50-DMA reclaim or a confirmed higher-low off C$31 — estimate 2–4 weeks if gold's safe-haven bid holds; Fundamental is already met, so scaling in on weakness toward C$31 is the playbook.
Forecast: Stop unlikely near-term — price C$32.38 sits ~14% above the C$28 stop and the C$31 support held through earnings. No exit condition live.
Half-Size. One entry group (Fundamental) is met → a half position is warranted now, with the second half reserved for a Technical confirmation (50-DMA reclaim or a confirmed higher-low off C$31). This is a scale-in-on-confirmation, not a full-conviction buy — the near-term tape is a strong_downtrend.
{
"ticker": "K.TO",
"date": "2026-07-31",
"time": "1200",
"version": "v6",
"company": "Kinross Gold Corporation",
"currency": "CAD",
"exchange": "TSX",
"exchange_ticker": "TSX:K",
"isin": "CA4969024047",
"api_ticker": "K.TO",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "KGC",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6 TSX \u00b7 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"lifecycle_stage": "mature_cash_cow",
"sector": "Materials",
"gics_sector": "Materials",
"country": "Canada",
"price_at_rating": 32.38,
"price_currency": "CAD",
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 79,
"valuation_score": 79,
"timing_score": 44,
"driver_score": 63,
"driver_commodity_trend": "GLD US$371.3 below falling 50-DMA (386) & 200-DMA (412); weekly downtrend, monthly uptrend; spot ~US$4,070, safe-haven bid LIVE (Mideast airstrikes, gold >US$4,100). K.TO strong_downtrend below all daily MAs (SMA20 33.5/SMA50 35.9/SMA200 40.1) but stabilizing (MACD hist turning up). Short=Headwind (no amp); medium modest Tailwind (driver 63<65 \u2192 BUY held, NOT STRONG BUY); long structural Tailwind (CB buying, de-dollarisation) \u2192 STRONG BUY.",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 64,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
"moat_score": 52,
"fcf_yield": 10.5,
"clean_pe": 8.7,
"clean_peg": 0.75,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 1,
"val_multiple_basis": "P/NAV ~0.85x anchor / EV-EBITDA 7.0x / clean P-E 8.7x (producer)",
"val_band": "attractive",
"peak_earnings_caveat": "Trailing multiples flattered by near-record realized gold (US$4,483) on a falling trend; trough-multiple-on-peak-earnings risk \u2014 valuation held at attractive not higher; bear C$26 prices reversion.",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "low",
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "in_line",
"relative_strength_vs_sector": "in_line",
"catalyst_clustering_score": 32,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2,
"overall_confidence": 52,
"fair_value_est": 50,
"stop_loss": 28,
"target_price": 50,
"scenario_base_target": 50,
"scenario_bull_target": 62,
"scenario_bear_target": 26,
"scenario_base_prob": 55,
"scenario_bull_prob": 22,
"scenario_bear_prob": 23,
"prob_weighted_fair_value": 47,
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_cap_reason": "Technical cap \u2014 Attractive valuation + Fundamental entry group met (deep value), but Technical & Catalyst groups unmet in a strong_downtrend. Quality-starter override N/A: base signal is BUY (not a Fair-val HOLD) and timing is a strong_downtrend (not Neutral) \u2014 so this is the technical cap, not a starter override.",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Jurisdiction/Geopolitical (Mauritania/Ghana/Brazil/Chile)",
"Commodity trend (gold below falling 50/200-DMA \u2014 caps short amp + driver <65)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"analyst_consensus_target": 53.98,
"analyst_target_high": 64.65,
"analyst_target_low": 40.8,
"analyst_target_median": 54.7,
"analyst_target_currency": "CAD",
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 66.7,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_coverage_count": 8,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"fmp_rating": "A",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"q2_2026_actuals": {
"revenue_usd_m": 2238.1,
"net_income_usd_m": 844.2,
"adj_net_income_usd_m": 847.8,
"eps_usd": 0.71,
"production_aueq_oz": 492326,
"realized_gold_usd_oz": 4483,
"aisc_usd_oz": 1821,
"attributable_fcf_usd_m": 727,
"h1_fcf_usd_m": 1500,
"fy26_guide_prod_moz": 2.0,
"fy26_guide_aisc_usd": 1730,
"fy26_guide_capex_usd_m": 1500
},
"next_update_date": "2026-08-14",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (Q2 reported 29 Jul; Q3 ~late Oct beyond window)",
"next_earnings_date": "2026-10-28",
"prior_report": "calibration-K.TO-20260720-1915.json",
"prior_primary": "BUY",
"changes_note": "HOLD/BUY/STRONG_BUY held vs 20 Jul (4th straight). Q2 beat (EPS US$0.71 +7.6%, record H1 FCF >US$1.5B, realized US$4,483, AISC US$1,821; FY guide reaffirmed 2.0Moz/AISC US$1,730). Earnings gate CLEARED. Price +2.3% to C$32.38, still strong_downtrend below all daily MAs. Valuation 78\u219279 (clean P/E 9.5\u21928.7, held attractive on peak-earnings caveat); Driver 61\u219263 (record margins vs falling gold trend, <65 so medium stays BUY). Short HOLD = technical cap; quality-starter override N/A (base BUY, timing not Neutral). Off Materials-CA grid (short HOLD)."
}