AngloGold Ashanti plc is one of the world's largest gold producers, running a diversified portfolio of roughly a dozen operations across Africa, the Americas and Australia (Geita, Iduapriem and the currently-suspended Obuasi in Ghana, Sukari in Egypt via the 2025 Centamin deal, Tropicana in Australia, Cerro Vanguardia in Argentina and the Nevada joint ventures). Its core business is simple: mine and process ore into refined gold sold at the prevailing spot price, so profit is the gap between that price and its all-in sustaining cost of production. What sets it apart is scale and asset diversity — a multi-country, multi-mine base that spreads single-asset risk — paired with a UK domicile and a primary NYSE listing that give it a large, liquid shareholder register. For a reader, think of it as a high-operating-leverage bet on the gold price: when gold runs well above its cost base, free cash flow compounds quickly; when gold falls, the same leverage works in reverse.
Lifecycle: Cash Cow / Mature producer. AngloGold is a large, profitable, diversified gold miner. It is scored on the mining lens — AISC margin, FCF yield, balance-sheet strength and capital allocation — not on growth multiples.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability vs peers | Operating margin 51%, net margin 32%, ROE 44.7%, ROA 24.9% — top-tier for a producer | 86 |
| Cash generation | TTM FCF ~$3.96bn (FCF yield ~9.6%); Q2 cash from ops +49% YoY to $1.8bn; Q2 FCF $727m (+36%), H1 FCF ~$1.9bn | 88 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net cash; debt/EBITDA well under 1x; interest coverage ~30x; current ratio 2.7 | 90 |
| Cost trend (AISC) | Q2 AISC ~$2,039/oz, UP on inflation, fuel, FX and the Obuasi suspension — a margin-compression watch even at ~50% margin | 62 |
| Production | Q2 ~744koz, −7% YoY (Obuasi temporarily suspended); FY guidance reaffirmed | 60 |
Moat score ~49 — a gold miner has no durable moat beyond its orebody and cost position; the "moat" here is asset diversity and a low-enough cost base to stay cash-generative through the cycle.
| Peer | Production (approx) | AISC trend | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont (NEM) | ~5.5-6moz/yr | rising | Larger, more diversified; also cost-pressured |
| Barrick (B/ABX) | ~3.9moz/yr | rising | Copper optionality; similar cost creep |
| Gold Fields (GFI) | ~2moz/yr | rising | Comparable scale, similar cost trend |
| Kinross (KGC/K) | ~2moz/yr | rising | Lower cost at some assets; smaller footprint |
ROIC & capital allocation: ROIC comfortably above cost of capital at current gold; capital allocation strengthened this quarter — a new $2.0bn buyback and an interim dividend hiked to $0.72/share, funded from record FCF. Management skin-in-the-game modest (~55). Capital allocation ~76.
Warranted-multiple anchor (miner, EV/EBITDA / P/NAV proxy). Discount rate r = 10-Y 4.75% + 4.5% ERP + 0% (Quality ≥ 65) = 9.25%; disciplined growth g_near 6% (Materials cap), g_term 3%. Two-stage warranted multiple ≈ 7.9x EV/EBITDA. Actual clean EV/EBITDA (TTM) ≈ 5.7x → ratio 0.72 → Attractive band, well under the miner guardrail (EV/EBITDA ≥ 8x).
| Lens | Reading | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Warranted anchor (40%) | Actual 5.7x ÷ warranted 7.9x = 0.72 | Attractive |
| Clean P/E | ~10.9x (TTM diluted EPS ~$7.49; non-op a drag, so clean ≈ reported); forward P/E ~8.2x | Cheap |
| FCF yield | ~9.6% (TTM FCF ~$3.96bn / mkt cap ~$41.4bn) | Attractive |
| Dividend | Yield ~5.5%; payout ~62% of earnings, covered by FCF | Supportive |
| Own-history decile | ~3rd decile of its own 5-yr range | Cheap end |
| PEG (clean) | ~0.73 (P/E ~10.9 vs ~15% consensus growth) | Cheap |
| Analyst consensus (15%) | FMP median $110 / consensus $95.2 (high $128, low $42); Yahoo mean $114, median $114.5; grades = Buy (JPM OW, Citi Buy, RBC/Scotia Outperform) | +34% to median |
Primary driver: the gold price. As a price-taking producer, AngloGold's economics are dominated by spot gold versus its AISC. At ~$4,070/oz vs ~$2,039/oz AISC the level is strongly favourable (level score ~85) — but Step 2b requires the price trend, per horizon.
| Horizon | Gold trend read | Driver role |
|---|---|---|
| Short (1-3m) | Basing in a downtrend — GLD 50-DMA falling ($394.8 on 19 Jul → $383.5 on 3 Aug); spot ~$4,070 at/just below the falling 50-DMA; 8-wk momentum ~−6% but decelerating | Headwind — short amplification OFF |
| Medium (6-12m) | Neutral-to-soft: macro upgraded Gold to SO medium, but no 50-day reclaim yet | Neutral / soft-Tailwind — no amplification |
| Long (3-5y) | Structural uptrend intact — central-bank/real-money bid, de-dollarisation; macro Gold long = SO, USD long = U | Tailwind — amplifies to STRONG BUY |
Latest macro (30 Jul, regime 'stagflation-lite — energy shock re-armed') rates Gold O/SO/SO across Short/Medium/Long and USD N/N/U. That is a Neutral short pressure (mixed stagflation cross-currents, gold basing) turning to a Tailwind on Medium and Long as the gold call strengthens and the dollar softens. Pressure enabled the LONG amplification to STRONG BUY (Tailwind + driver long-tailwind + Attractive valuation); it did not enable Short (Neutral) or Medium (soft) amplification — those base signals stand.
Source: sector-map (Materials / Gold) · Macro report 2026-07-30
Neutral-to-weak tape, but improving off a post-earnings bounce. AU trades ~$81.86, below both its 50-DMA (~$84.1, falling) and 200-DMA (~$91.2, rising). The daily and weekly trends are down; the monthly is up. After Q2 results, the stock tested $73.40 intraday (30 Jul, heavy volume) and has bounced ~+11% — daily MACD histogram has flipped positive (+0.66 above signal), daily RSI has recovered to ~51, and the hourly/15-min are in short-term uptrends.
| Timeframe | Trend | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Structural uptrend intact |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Below 20/50-wk EMA; correcting |
| Daily | Downtrend, basing | Below 50/200-DMA; MACD hist flipping positive |
| Hourly / 15-min | Uptrend | Post-earnings bounce off $73.40 |
Relative strength: AU has lagged SPY over the past quarter (~−6% RS) but recently began to outpace the tape as gold based; RS vs the gold-miner sector roughly flat (~−3%).
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | US CPI (Jul) | High | — | — | Yes | Gold/miners are rate-sensitive; a hot print pressures gold, a soft one supports the medium call |
| 2026-08-21 | Jackson Hole | Med | — | — | Yes | Fed-path signals move real yields and gold |
| ~late Oct | AngloGold Q3 2026 results | High | — | — | Yes | Next company catalyst — AISC trend, Obuasi restart, buyback progress |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | AngloGold Q2/H1 2026 results | H1 NI $2.28bn (~2x YoY); EBITDA +46% to $2bn; new $2bn buyback; div $0.72 | Strong beat | Positive | Cleared the earnings gate; stock bounced off $73.40 |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC | Held / policy-tight | In line | Neutral | Real yields firm — part of gold's basing |
The binary company catalyst (Q2/H1 results) is behind us and cleared positively — record cash generation, a new $2.0bn buyback and a dividend hike, with FY production guidance reaffirmed despite the Obuasi suspension. The next company event is Q3 (~late Oct); nearer-term, CPI and Jackson Hole drive the gold tape.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Up | 58.6 | hist −0.8 | res breakout | yes | 0.09x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Down | 46.6 | −2.1 | below 50-wk | no | 0.40x |
| Daily | Downtrend (basing) | Flat | 50.8 | hist +0.66 | below 50/200-DMA | yes | 1.47x |
| Hourly | Uptrend | Up | 54.1 | +0.51 | above 50/200-h | yes | 0.30x |
| 15-min | Uptrend | Up | 46.9 | flat | above 200 | yes | 0.84x |
| Confluence: Mixed — structural (monthly) up, intermediate (weekly/daily) down, near-term bouncing · MTF Score 46 | |||||||
The split tape is the whole story: AngloGold is in a structural uptrend that is mid-correction. The near-term bounce off the $73.40 post-earnings low is real (MACD histogram flip, RSI recovery) but has not yet reclaimed the falling 50-DMA (~$84), so the near-term direction is unconfirmed for a short-term entry.
AU daily, Jul 1 – Aug 2 2026. Below a falling 50-DMA (~$84); tested $73.40 post-earnings (30 Jul) and bounced ~+11%.
Gold reclaims its uptrend (spot back above $4,300-4,500) as real yields fall and the CB/real-money bid resumes; Obuasi restarts on schedule, AISC creep stabilises, and the $2bn buyback shrinks the share count into rising FCF. Re-rates toward the Street high ($128-134). ~+65%.
Gold holds its ~$3,950-4,150 basing range, FY guidance is delivered, and record FCF funds the dividend and buyback. Multiple stays Attractive-to-Fair and the equity drifts up toward the median analyst target (~$110-114) as the near-term tape confirms. ~+37%.
Gold breaks the basing range toward $3,400-3,500 on firmer real yields / a stronger dollar; the same operating leverage compounds AISC pressure and the Obuasi delay, compressing FCF. High-cost ounces get repriced first. ~−24%.
Forecast: Technical group ~1-3 weeks IF the post-earnings bounce holds and reclaims the ~$84 50-DMA (price ~$82, 50-DMA falling ~$0.2/day → convergence near $83); a failed bounce back under $77 resets the clock. Fundamental group already met — a half-size starter on the fundamental path, balance added on the technical reclaim.
Forecast: Stop is ~9% below spot; unlikely absent a gold break of the basing range. Profit-trim zone ~$110+ is ~34% away — not near-term.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
{
"ticker": "AU",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:AU",
"isin": "GB00BRXH2664",
"api_ticker": "AU",
"date": "2026-08-04",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "AU",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"company": "AngloGold Ashanti plc",
"currency": "USD",
"price_at_rating": 81.86,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 74,
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin (Mining)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "~50% of spot (gold ~$4,070/oz, AISC ~$2,039/oz)",
"industry_benchmark_score": 90,
"moat_score": 49,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 66,
"capital_allocation": 76,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_score": 74,
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 9.6,
"implied_growth_rate": 1.0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 15.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 3
},
"warranted_multiple": 7.9,
"actual_multiple": 5.7,
"val_multiple_basis": "EV/EBITDA (TTM), miner P/NAV proxy",
"discount_rate_r": 9.25,
"risk_free_10y": 4.75,
"g_near": 6.0,
"g_term": 3.0,
"warranted_ratio": 0.72,
"val_band": "attractive",
"timing_score": 50,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 46,
"risk_reward_score": 55,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -6.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -3.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 50,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2
},
"driver_score": 85,
"driver_label": "Level-strong, trend-weak",
"driver_commodity_trend": "gold basing in a downtrend: GLD 50-DMA falling ($394.82 on 19 Jul \u2192 $383.52 on 3 Aug, ~\u2212$11/10 sessions); spot ~$4,070/oz (prior-agent capture) at/just below the falling 50-DMA and ~8% below the rising 200-DMA proxy; 8-wk momentum ~\u22126% but decelerating (4-wk flat) as gold bases ~$3,950-4,150; downtrend decelerating, NOT reversed; structural uptrend intact only on the long horizon (macro Gold O/SO/SO, USD N/N/U)",
"driver_horizon_read": {
"short": "Headwind",
"medium": "Neutral/soft-Tailwind",
"long": "Tailwind",
"amplifies": "long-only",
"note": "85 is the current-state LEVEL score (spot vs AISC); the per-horizon trend overlay caps Short at Headwind (short amplification OFF) while gold trades below a falling 50-DMA, leaves Medium neutral-to-soft (macro Gold medium=SO but no 50-day reclaim), and only Long carries a clean Tailwind (structural de-dollar / CB real-money bid, macro Gold long=SO, USD long=U)"
},
"overall_confidence": 56,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 68,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_pressure_by_horizon": {
"short": "Neutral",
"medium": "Tailwind",
"long": "Tailwind"
},
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": -9.2,
"clean_pe": 10.9,
"clean_peg": 0.73,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable-to-rising",
"competitive_threat_level": "low",
"fair_value_est": 110.0,
"stop_loss": 74.0,
"target_price": 112.0,
"scenario_base_target": 112,
"scenario_bull_target": 135,
"scenario_bear_target": 62,
"analyst_consensus_target": 95.2,
"analyst_target_high": 128,
"analyst_target_low": 42,
"analyst_target_median": 110.0,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 34.4,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 64,
"analyst_coverage_count": 14,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_hold_reason": "technical_pending",
"short_cap_reason": "Short base leans BUY (Attractive valuation + High quality + Neutral timing) but both the Technical and Catalyst entry groups are UNMET \u2014 AU trades below a falling 50-DMA (~$84) and gold is basing below its own falling 50-DMA, so the near-term tape is not confirmed and the fundamental-only path caps Short at HOLD (technical-confirmation cap). The earnings-event risk that capped the prior Short has cleared (Q2 beat). Buy on confirmation: a 50-DMA reclaim near $84 on volume, or a confirmed higher-low bounce off $74-77.",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-08-18",
"next_check_date": "2026-08-18",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d \u2014 Q2/H1 2026 results cleared 31 Jul (strong beat, new $2.0bn buyback, dividend hiked to $0.72); no impactful company event inside the 14-day window; Q3 2026 results ~late Oct. Materials is macro-sensitive (CPI 12 Aug, Jackson Hole ~21 Aug) but recurring releases are not scheduling triggers in the general case."
}