Hubbell Incorporated is a 137-year-old American manufacturer of electrical and grid infrastructure products, run through two segments: Utility Solutions (distribution, transmission, substation and telecom hardware sold to electric utilities) and Electrical Solutions (wiring, connectors, enclosures, lighting and controls for industrial, commercial and data-center use). Its core business is making the specified, code-driven, often sole-sourced components that physically connect and protect the electrical grid — small-dollar parts that are critical to large projects, which gives Hubbell durable pricing power and utility spec-in lock-in. What sets it apart is a top-two position in North-American grid hardware plus a fast-growing data-center-power franchise, riding the grid-modernisation, electrification and AI-power capex super-cycle. For a reader: think of Hubbell as a picks-and-shovels supplier to the electricity build-out — less glamorous than the utilities or chipmakers it serves, but embedded in their spending.
Lifecycle & sector: Industrials · Electrical Equipment (grid/utility + electrical products). Classified Mature: revenue now growing double-digits on the electrification wave, ~20-21% operating margins, steady FCF, disciplined bolt-on M&A. Scored on ROIC, margins, moat and the Industrials benchmark, not on hyper-growth metrics. Quality rises 78→79 after a clean Q2 beat-and-raise: Utility book-to-bill ~1.2x, data-center sales up ~65%, and the FY26 adjusted-operating-margin guide lifted to 23.1-23.4% (+40-70bps). Demand visibility and margin trajectory both improved.
| Sub-signal | HUBB | Read vs peers / history | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | Q2'26 $1.712B (+15% YoY; organic +10%, M&A +5%); FY26 guide raised to +16-18% sales / +9-11% organic | Well above mature-industrial norm; grid modernisation, load growth & data-center power drive it | 80 |
| Profitability vs peers | Q2 GAAP op margin ~20.4% (gross 35.8%); adjusted op margin guide 23.1-23.4% (+40-70bps YoY) | Strong for electrical equipment; adjusted margins expanding despite tariff/mix headwinds | 80 |
| Cash generation | FCF ~$0.9B TTM; FCF/OCF ~84%; capex light (~2.7% of sales) | Solid conversion; funds the dividend + bolt-ons. NSI adds FCF from FY27 | 74 |
| Balance-sheet health | Interest coverage ~13x, current ratio 1.61; pro-forma net debt/EBITDA ~3.2-3.4x post-NSI | Healthy; leverage stepped up for the $1.1B NSI deal but well within IG norms | 68 |
| Returns on capital (ROIC/ROE) | ROIC ~15-16% vs WACC ~9%; FMP ROE 5/5, ROA 4/5 | Consistently above cost of capital — the hallmark of the franchise | 82 |
Moat average ≈ 65 — wide in utility grid hardware, narrower in commercial electrical where merchant rivals compete. The two competition-exposed dimensions (Switching Costs, Cost Advantage) are scored down from the named-competitor read below.
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory (HUBB vs rival) | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eaton (ETN) | Direct electrical/grid rival, ~5x the scale | HUBB stable; Eaton broader in electrical & a bigger data-center-power franchise | Scale + breadth pressure Cost Advantage in commercial electrical & DC power |
| nVent Electric (NVT) | Direct electrical-connection & enclosure rival | HUBB stable; overlapping connector/enclosure lines (NSI narrows the gap in Hubbell's favour) | Price/product competition in electrical connections; caps Pricing Power at the margin |
| Schneider / ABB / Siemens Energy | Broad-line grid & automation majors | HUBB stable in niche grid hardware; the majors dominate substations/switchgear | Compete for the same utility & data-center capex budgets; limit HUBB's addressable ceiling |
Net: a defensible, spec-driven grid-hardware moat that Q2 orders reaffirmed, sitting inside an increasingly crowded data-center-power arena. Share stable, threat moderate — feeds the Switching-Cost (70) and Cost-Advantage (58) sub-scores directly.
nonOperatingIncomeExcludingInterest ~$5.8M in Q2) is only ~2-3% of net income; reported EPS ≈ clean EPS. No AI-style mark-up inflation. The adjusted EPS ($5.52 vs $4.51 GAAP in Q2) adds back acquisition-intangible amortisation — a real recurring cost, so we anchor the ceiling on the trailing GAAP/clean ~28.0x, not the flattering adjusted number. The richness is real, not an artefact.| Multiple | HUBB | Reference read | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E (clean GAAP) | ~28.0x | Above the 23x Industrials guardrail line — Expensive | 34 |
| Forward P/E (FY26 adj / FY27) | 23.2x ($20.40) / 20.9x ($22.68) | Now at the 23x line, not above — richness compressing on the raise | 46 |
| PEG (fwd) | ~1.9-2.1 | Full vs ~11-13% adjusted-EPS growth; better than the >2.3 of prior refreshes | 42 |
| Own 5-yr valuation decile | Decile ~4-5 (52-wk $403.82-$565.5; price ~48% of range) | Middle-to-lower of its own range — off the June decile-8 extreme | 54 |
| EV/EBITDA | ~20.4x | Full for an industrial | 38 |
HUBB is tethered to grid modernisation + electrification capex — utility transmission & distribution spend, grid reliability/hardening, and now the data-center power build-out. Q2 made the driver visible in the numbers: data-center sales +65% YoY, Electrical Solutions organic +18%, Utility book-to-bill ~1.2x. This is a multi-year, policy- and demand-backed capex super-cycle, not a one-quarter spike.
| Horizon | Driver read | Effect on signal |
|---|---|---|
| Short (1-3 mo) | Order momentum strong, but the stock has already priced a lot; post-earnings the tape faded the beat | Tailwind present, not amplifying a HOLD |
| Medium (6-12 mo) | FY26 organic guide +9-11%; utility & data-center demand durable; NSI integration adds electrical scale | Supportive tailwind |
| Long (3-5 yr) | Structural electrification / grid-capex / AI-power super-cycle — the core long thesis | Strong structural tailwind |
Industrials sit XLI Neutral (short) / Neutral (medium) / Outperform (long) in the latest macro map, with a structural grid-electrification / AI-power tailwind underpinning the long horizon. Near-term pressure is roughly Neutral (rate-sensitive, cyclical), long-run a Tailwind. HUBB is a trend-following long-horizon expression of that sector call (conviction 62): you are leaning with the electrification capex cycle, not against it. The stance supports holding through the current technical wobble but, like the driver, cannot lift a valuation-capped HOLD.
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-20
| Sub-signal | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend score | Monthly/weekly still uptrend, but the daily has rolled over into a downtrend / support-breakdown: price $473 is below the daily SMA20 ($483), SMA50 ($488) and SMA200 ($481). Weekly MACD histogram −4.2, daily MACD −4.8. Tool confluence: bearish | 44 |
| Risk-reward (daily) | Price wedged below all three key daily MAs; nearest support $464/$453. A reclaim of $488 (SMA50) is the confirmation trigger; a stop below $453 is ~1.1x the daily ATR ($18). No clean favourable base | 46 |
| Relative strength | ~−10% over the last six weeks (from ~$523 on 17 Jun) while the S&P was roughly flat-to-up — a clear laggard; 52-wk position ~48% | 40 |
| Macro overlay (Industrials, 15% wt) | XLI Neutral (short) / Neutral (medium) / Outperform (long) — a long-run sector tailwind, neutral near-term | 58 |
| Sentiment (grades + news) | Grades 'Hold' (0 up / 0 down in 30d); news constructive (beat-and-raise, DC +65%) but the tape sold the news | 50 |
| Catalyst layer | Q2 earnings now passed (28 Jul) — the near-term catalyst is spent, and it resolved against the price. Next print ~late Oct | 50 |
Timing score: 48 / 100 — weak/neutral (down from 54). Composition: MTF 0.30 + risk-reward 0.20 + macro 0.15 + sentiment 0.18 + catalyst 0.17. Honest read: a genuine beat-and-raise was sold — the stock gapped from ~$498 to ~$461 on the print and now sits below every key daily moving average in a fresh daily downtrend. Good business, poor near-term entry edge.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | High | ~49 | 48.5 | Yes | Industrial demand proxy; a sub-50 print pressures cyclicals like HUBB |
| 2026-08-01 | US Non-farm Payrolls (Jul) | High | +110k | +147k | Indirect | Growth/rate read; affects the discount rate on long-duration industrials |
| 2026-08-13 | US CPI (Jul) | High | ~2.8% y/y | 2.9% | Indirect | Feeds the 10-Y and thus the warranted multiple |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | HUBB Q2 2026 earnings | Adj EPS $5.52 / sales $1.712B | ~$5.35 / ~$1.66B | Beat + raise | Stock fell ~7% on the print (priced-in richness) |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC decision | Hold | Hold | In line | No change; rates steady, neutral for HUBB |
The two near-term catalysts (Q2 earnings, FOMC) are both spent and resolved neutral-to-against the price. The next stock-specific catalyst is the Q3 print in late October; macro prints (ISM, payrolls, CPI) are the main event risk until then.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | ↑ | 55 | +0.4 | R 565 / S 429 | Resist-breakout | 1.07x |
| Weekly | Uptrend | ↑ | 46 | hist −4.2 | R 533 / S 453 | Rolling over | 1.59x |
| Daily | Downtrend | ↓ | 45 | hist −1.2 | R 496 / S 453 | Support-breakdown | 1.49x |
| Hourly | Strong downtrend | ↓ | 47 | hist +0.9 | R 494 / S 461 | Support-breakdown | — |
| 15-min | Strong downtrend | ↓ | 46 | hist −0.7 | R 485 / S 468 | Mixed | — |
| Confluence: Bearish (near-term) · MTF Score 42 | |||||||
Higher-timeframe trend (monthly/weekly) is still up, but every lower timeframe (daily/hourly/15-min) has broken down and price is below all three key daily moving averages. This is a stock in a corrective pullback within a longer uptrend — not a breakdown of the multi-year thesis, but not a place to chase either. The $453 weekly support is the line that matters.
HUBB daily close, mid-May to 30 Jul 2026. Note the 17 Jun peak (~$540), the steady bleed since, and the 28 Jul earnings gap-down (~$498 → ~$461) despite the beat-and-raise. Price now sits below the 200-DMA (~$481) at the $453 support shelf's doorstep.
Data-center power (+65% in Q2) and utility backlog keep compounding; further guidance raises let the forward multiple hold ~23x on rising EPS, and the stock re-rates toward the Street's $551-557 consensus/median. NSI synergies land ahead of plan. Needs the daily downtrend to reverse first.
The most probable path: grid/electrification demand stays strong and FY26 adjusted EPS (~$20.40) delivers, but the Expensive cap and the 'priced-in' dynamic keep the stock range-bound — it works back toward ~$500 (a modest ~6% from spot) over 6-12 months rather than chasing the Street's targets. HOLD is the honest call.
A rate shock, a cyclical/industrial slowdown, or an NSI integration stumble de-rates the forward multiple toward ~20x; the $453 weekly support gives way and price tests the $403-415 base. The rich starting valuation is the vulnerability.
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ $497 (0.25×$560 + 0.55×$500 + 0.20×$415). That sits ~5% above spot and ~9% above the disciplined warranted fair value (~$455) — the wedge is the growth optimism. A HOLD with a mild positive skew that the Expensive gate and the broken daily trend keep from becoming a BUY.
Forecast: No entry path is open. The earliest realistic trigger is the Technical group — a reclaim of the $488 SMA50 with positive momentum, OR a clean higher-low off $453 — likely 2-4+ weeks away given the daily downtrend. The Fundamental path needs price back near ~$455 (a ~4% pullback) while the valuation stays capped, so it would open on weakness, not strength.
Forecast: No exit trigger is live for a holder — the position is a HOLD, not a sell. The stop sits at ~$448 (~5% below spot, just under the $453 shelf); a breach there flips the near-term structure decisively bearish.
Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified for this watchlist refresh. As a general note, the Expensive valuation and the live daily downtrend argue for no new size here; an existing holder sizes normally with the $448 stop.
{
"ticker": "HUBB",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:HUBB",
"api_ticker": "HUBB",
"isin": "US4435106079",
"date": "2026-07-31",
"version": "v6",
"company": "Hubbell Incorporated",
"currency": "USD",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "HUBB",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"sector": "Industrials",
"gics_sector": "Industrials",
"country": "United States",
"price_at_rating": 473.22,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"quality_score": 79,
"valuation_score": 40,
"timing_score": 48,
"driver_score": 80,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "ROIC vs WACC + Backlog Growth (Industrials)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "ROIC ~15-16% vs WACC ~9%; utility book-to-bill ~1.2x; DC sales +65%",
"industry_benchmark_score": 85,
"moat_score": 65,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 80,
"capital_allocation": 72,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 3.6,
"implied_growth_rate": 9.0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 12.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 4,
"forward_pe_fy26": 23.2,
"ev_ebitda": 20.4
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 42,
"risk_reward_score": 46,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -10.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -4.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 50,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15
},
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 3,
"clean_pe": 28.0,
"clean_peg": 2.1,
"val_band": "expensive",
"warranted_multiple": 22,
"actual_multiple": 28.0,
"warranted_ratio": 1.27,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean trailing GAAP P/E (above the 23x Industrials guardrail line)",
"discount_rate_r": 9.0,
"risk_free_10y": 4.4,
"g_near": 9.0,
"g_term": 3,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 62,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral (near) / Tailwind (long)",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
"analyst_consensus_target": 551.33,
"analyst_target_high": 600.0,
"analyst_target_low": 503.0,
"analyst_target_median": 557.5,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 16.5,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Hold",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 41,
"analyst_coverage_count": 17,
"fmp_rating": "B",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"overall_confidence": 52,
"fair_value_est": 455,
"stop_loss": 448,
"target_price": 500,
"scenario_base_target": 500,
"scenario_bull_target": 560,
"scenario_bear_target": 415,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [
"Valuation Ceiling"
],
"gates_caution": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-08-14",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (Q2 earnings 28 Jul + FOMC 29 Jul passed; Q3 ~late Oct beyond window)",
"next_check_date": "2026-08-14",
"prior_report": "calibration-HUBB-20260720-1900.json",
"prior_primary": "HOLD",
"changes_note": "HOLD/HOLD/HOLD held. Q2 (28 Jul) beat-and-raise: adj EPS $5.52 (+12%), sales +15% (organic +10%), data-center sales +65%, Electrical organic +18%, Utility book-to-bill ~1.2x; FY26 adj-EPS guide raised to $20.25-20.55 and adj op margin to 23.1-23.4%. Yet the stock fell ~7% on the print (priced-in richness) and now trades below all daily MAs in a fresh daily downtrend. Valuation stays Expensive via the 23x Industrials guardrail floor (trailing clean ~28x), but the warranted ratio improved 1.36->1.27 and forward P/E 24.4->23.2 on the de-rate+raise: Val 38->40. Timing 54->48 (daily breakdown, -10% relative strength). Quality 78->79 (backlog/DC/margin confirm). Valuation-Ceiling gate still TRIGGERED -> caps HOLD; earnings-event gate cleared. Entry Wait. Fair value 430->455. Price -2.4% ($484.98->$473.22)."
}
HOLD/HOLD/HOLD held across all three horizons. The refresh's story: a clean Q2 beat-and-raise that the market sold, leaving a marginally cheaper (still Expensive) valuation and a deteriorated near-term technical picture. Quality 78→79, Valuation 38→40, Timing 54→48. The Valuation-Ceiling gate stays triggered; no Do-Not-Buy trigger.