Cerro de Pasco Resources is a development-stage Peruvian resource company whose plan is to reprocess the enormous above-ground mine-waste of the 100-year-old Cerro de Pasco mining complex in central Peru — rather than dig a new mine. Its flagship is the Quiulacocha tailings storage facility, a historical exploration target of roughly 423 million ounces of silver-equivalent (silver, zinc, lead, copper, gold, plus the critical metals gallium and indium); a separate, 100%-owned asset, the Excelsior stockpile on the El Metalurgista concession, already carries a compliant NI 43-101 inferred resource of 42.9 million ounces of silver. What makes the story distinctive is that the metal is already broken and above ground, and bench/pilot metallurgy has recovered ~94% of the silver into a single high-grade concentrate. For a reader: think of it as an option on turning a giant waste pile into a silver-led polymetallic resource — high potential leverage to silver, but still pre-economic-study and years from any production.
What it owns. A 100%-owned concession over more than a century of silver-rich tailings and stockpiles at Cerro de Pasco, central Peru. The thesis is that material already mined, crushed and sitting on surface can be reprocessed without the capital, permitting and dilution of a greenfield mine. That is a genuinely good idea and it is why this name carries a Medium quality score despite having no economics.
What changed, and it is mostly good. Phase 1 bulk sampling completed in December 2025 — about 12.3 tonnes moved to Lima under frozen conditions to preserve the sample[2] — the 2025 technical, environmental and permitting workstreams are consolidated, and a social-licence agreement is signed with the Quiulacocha community[4]. The company is working toward a PFS.
The balance sheet is unusual for this cohort and it deserves saying. FY2025 net income of US$24.6M came from selling non-core assets[3], which is how the programme is funded: C$22,378,293 of net cash against effectively no debt[1]. Most developers at this stage fund themselves by issuing paper into a falling share price. This one did not.
A single-asset tailings developer has no market share to win or lose, so the usual framing does not apply. The real competitive axis is access to capital and permits against other Peruvian silver developers, and on that axis CDPR is ahead of its cohort: funded from asset sales rather than dilution, with community agreement in hand. Its moat, such as it is, is that the material is already on surface and nobody else can own this particular pile.
Quality 62 — unchanged.
There is no anchor, and I am going to say that rather than manufacture one. With no economic study and no published resource estimate[2], P/NAV and the warranted-multiple framework have no denominator. So the valuation score is not a multiple against anything — it is a judgement about what C$498M is buying.
What it buys: a century of accumulated silver-rich tailings on a 100%-owned concession, C$22,378,293 of net cash, community agreement, and a PFS in progress. What it does not buy: a single published tonne of resource or a single dollar of modelled NPV. Price-to-book is 10.9[1].
Why Fair and not Expensive. The optionality is real and the balance sheet is clean, which is more than most pre-economics developers can say. But a reader should hold this loosely: 'Fair' here is an opinion about promise. If the maiden MRE disappoints, there is no valuation floor under this price, because there is no valuation floor at all.
Valuation 42 — down three. The price rose 25% and what is proven did not change, so the same promise now costs a quarter more.
Silver, and the macro is behind it. The 9 September report has Materials Overweight on all three horizons with gold Strong Overweight throughout[5]. CDPR has no production, so the metal price does not touch cash flow — it moves the value of the option, which is the whole asset.
Drivers 60 — up four.
Materials Overweight on all three horizons, in an energy-shock stagflation regime at 48% probability[5]. A silver-leveraged hard-asset developer is close to the best-positioned thing in that regime — which is the mirror image of the technology names elsewhere in this batch.
Pressure Tailwind, conviction 62 — up six.
Source: sector map (GICS Information Technology → XLK) · Macro report 2026-09-09 · Macro report 2026-09-09
The strongest of the three pillars, and the closest this name has come to reactivating. C$0.75 is up 25% since the last report and sits above both the 20-day (C$0.725) and the 50-day (C$0.653), against a 52-week range of C$0.415 to C$0.90[1].
Timing 58 — up 10. Improving, and it is the pillar carrying the composite.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 (rolling) | US CPI / PCE / FOMC path | Med | — | — | ⚠ Indirect | Sets the real-rate + USD backdrop for silver, CDPR’s driver |
| H2-2026 (undated) | Maiden Quiulacocha MRE | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | First compliant resource on the flagship — the key re-rating catalyst |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Macro report refresh | Silver O/SO/SO | — | Upgrade | Positive: mild Tailwind for the silver-developer complex |
No dated, high-impact event inside the 14-day window. The maiden Quiulacocha MRE (H2-2026) is the decisive catalyst but carries no fixed date, so it does not pull the next-update forward. Macro silver prints (CPI/PCE/FOMC) matter only indirectly, via the driver.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | Downtrend | Bearish | — | neg | S: C$15.69 R: C$0.72 | none | — |
| vs 20-day | Below | Bearish | — | — | SMA20 C$0.72 | none | — |
| vs 50-day | Below | Bearish | — | — | SMA50 C$0.65 | none | — |
| 52-week | Downtrend | Bearish | — | neg | S: C$15.69 R: C$66.99 | none | — |
| Confluence: Bearish on every timeframe · MTF Score 15 | |||||||
There is no ambiguity to parse here. Price sits below the 20-day (C$0.72) and the 50-day (C$0.65), both falling, at a 52-week low of C$15.69 intraday against a 52-week high of C$66.99[1]. Friday's 5.9 per cent gain off the low is a bounce in a downtrend, and the published C$22.00 stop was breached well above here[6].
CDPR.V daily closes, last 90 sessions to 11 Sep 2026, with the 50-day average. The window opens at C$0.63 and closes at C$0.75 — the shares have lost roughly -19% across it, with the high at C$0.79 and the low at C$0.53. Price is far below a falling 50-day at C$0.65[1].
The maiden resource estimate lands and is large, and the PFS that follows puts a modelled NPV against it for the first time. A tailings project with no mining, no waste stripping and material already on surface can carry a high multiple once the tonnes are real. Silver holds, with Materials Overweight throughout[5]. 80% from here.
The MRE lands, it is respectable rather than transformative, and the shares drift with the silver complex while the PFS is written. Cash funds the programme without a raise. 13% from here.
The maiden estimate disappoints on grade or recoverable tonnes, or permitting slips. There is no valuation floor under this price because there is no published resource to put one on[2], so the move would be back toward the C$0.415 low. -44% from here.
Forecast: Entry conviction: Half-Size — one of three groups met (Technical), and the framework does not produce a BUY here. The fundamental group cannot be met at all until a resource estimate exists, which is the honest structural position of a pre-economics developer. The maiden MRE is what opens this name up, in both directions.
Forecast: Exit action: Hold. No exit trigger is live: the stop is well below, the community and permitting position has strengthened rather than weakened, and no financing has been announced.
One entry group of three is met, so the framework's position here is half-size at most and the signal is HOLD rather than BUY. The risk that matters is not the stop — it is that a pre-economics developer has no valuation floor. C$0.75 against a C$0.58 stop is 29%, but a disappointing maiden resource estimate would not respect that level on the way through it.
{
"ticker": "CDPR.V",
"date": "2026-09-12",
"version": "v6",
"brand": "",
"company": "Cerro de Pasco Resources Inc.",
"currency": "CAD",
"exchange": "TSXV",
"exchange_ticker": "TSXV:CDPR",
"isin": "CA1568281051",
"api_ticker": "CDPR.V",
"finder_ticker": "CDPR",
"finder_exchange": "TSXV",
"analysis_status": "stopped",
"lifecycle_stage": "developer \u2014 maiden-inferred-resource (Excelsior, secondary) / pre-resource (Quiulacocha flagship) / pre-economic-study",
"sector": "Materials",
"gics_sector": "Materials",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"price_at_rating": 0.75,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"quality_score": 62,
"valuation_score": 42,
"timing_score": 58,
"driver_score": 60,
"moat_score": 56,
"driver_commodity_trend": "Silver-leveraged, and the macro report has Materials Overweight on all three horizons with gold Strong Overweight throughout[[src:macro]]. The precious-metals complex is the driver here; CDPR has no production, so the commodity affects the value of the option rather than any current cash flow.",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 62,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector map (GICS Materials \u2192 XLB: short O / medium O / long O per the 9 Sep 2026 macro report) \u2014 Overweight on all three horizons, and a silver-leveraged developer sits well in an energy-shock stagflation regime at 48% probability.",
"macro_report_date": "2026-09-09",
"overall_confidence": 45,
"val_band": null,
"warranted_multiple": null,
"actual_multiple": null,
"warranted_ratio": null,
"discount_rate_r": null,
"risk_free_10y": null,
"g_near": null,
"g_term": null,
"val_multiple_basis": "NO COMPUTABLE ANCHOR, stated rather than skipped. There is no economic study and no published resource estimate, so P/NAV and the warranted-multiple framework have no denominator. The valuation score is therefore a judgement about what C$498M buys: a 100%-owned tailings concession with a century of accumulated silver-rich material, C$22.4M of cash, and a price-to-book of 10.9. It is scored Fair rather than Expensive because the optionality is real and the balance sheet is clean \u2014 but a reader should understand that 'Fair' here is an opinion about promise, not a multiple against anything.",
"fcf_yield": null,
"implied_growth_rate": null,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": null,
"clean_pe": null,
"clean_peg": null,
"fair_value_est": 0.78,
"stop_loss": 0.58,
"target_price": 0.75,
"scenario_base_target": 0.85,
"scenario_bull_target": 1.35,
"scenario_bear_target": 0.42,
"scenario_probabilities": {
"bull": 28,
"base": 50,
"bear": 22
},
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Pre-economic-study \u2014 the defining risk and it is structural. There is no PEA, no PFS and no published resource estimate, yet the market capitalisation is C$498M. Every valuation statement in this report is therefore an opinion about promise rather than a calculation against a number. The maiden MRE is what changes that, and it is undated.",
"Single asset, single jurisdiction \u2014 Quiulacocha and El Metalurgista in central Peru. No diversification of geology, permitting or politics.",
"Cash burn \u2014 free cash flow of C$-13,032,907 a year against C$22,434,742 of cash is roughly 1.7 years. Comfortable today, but a PFS programme is not cheap and the next raise is a question of when rather than whether.",
"Thin coverage \u2014 one analyst, one target (C$1.25). Average volume 568,979 shares on a C$0.75 stock is real liquidity for the cohort, but the price discovery behind it is shallow."
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"competitive_share_trajectory": "not applicable in the usual sense \u2014 a single-asset tailings developer has no market share to win or lose. The competitive question is access to capital and permits against other Peruvian silver developers, and on that axis CDPR is ahead of the cohort: funded from asset sales rather than dilution, with social-licence agreements signed with the Quiulacocha community in December 2025.",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"economic_study_status": "Excelsior stockpile (El Metalurgista, 100%): NI 43-101 INFERRED MRE FOUND \u2014 30.1 Mt @ 44 g/t Ag \u2192 42.9 Moz Ag + 437 kt Zn + 184 kt Pb (eff. 31 Aug 2020, TR filed 18 Mar 2021). Quiulacocha flagship: resource CONFIRMED ABSENT \u2014 116-hole drilling toward maiden MRE H2-2026; ~423 Moz AgEq is a non-compliant exploration target. Economic study (PEA/PFS/DFS/NPV): CONFIRMED ABSENT on BOTH assets (company site + SEDAR+ + dedicated queries). Anchor N/A \u2192 valuation on asset/optionality.",
"analyst_consensus_target": 1.25,
"analyst_target_high": 1.25,
"analyst_target_low": 1.25,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 108.3,
"analyst_coverage_count": 1,
"systemic_tail_inheritance": "none \u2014 not in the AI-concentration cohort (Peru silver micro-cap)",
"next_update_date": "2026-09-26",
"next_update_basis": "Standing 14-day ceiling. The dated catalyst is the maiden mineral resource estimate for Quiulacocha, still undated, which is the single event that would give this name a computable valuation anchor for the first time. Bring the update forward the day it lands.",
"prior_report": "calibration-CDPR.V-20260804-1326.json",
"prior_primary": "HOLD",
"changes_note": "HOLD held on all three horizons \u2192 stays Stopped (protected pick). Q 60\u219262, V 42\u219245, T 46\u219248, Driver 52\u219256, Econ 52\u219256 (pressure Neutral\u2192Tailwind on 30 Jul macro silver O/SO/SO). Silver short-trend Headwind\u2192Neutral. Classification correction: Excelsior compliant NI 43-101 inferred MRE (42.9 Moz Ag) recognised \u2014 prior company-level 'no resource' label was imprecise (true only for the flagship). No economic study anywhere \u2192 anchor still N/A.",
"composite_short": 55,
"composite_medium": 54,
"composite_long": 55,
"mechanical_repair": "2026-09-10: fields the framework DETERMINES were repaired mechanically by scripts/repair_derived_fields.py \u2014 composite_short None -> 50; composite_medium None -> 52; composite_long None -> 55. No signal, gate, scenario, target or prose was touched, and any valuation_score clamp that would have crossed a Decision-Matrix band was refused rather than applied. Cause: the pillars and the banner score were authored in different places and nothing reconciled them; build_stock_report.py now derives these at render so it cannot recur. On a valuation_score clamp the WARRANTED RATIO is treated as the anchor and the score moves to the NEAREST edge of the band that ratio implies \u2014 the ratio is computed from actual/warranted and is the more mechanical of the two, and clamping to the nearest edge preserves as much of the original author's judgement as the constraint allows.",
"report_file": "CDPR.V_Signal_v6_20260912_1800.html",
"price_asof": "2026-09-11",
"market_cap_cad": 498200832,
"shares_outstanding": 664267776,
"shares_outstanding_m": 664.267776,
"nav_divisor_shares": 664267776,
"economic_study": "CONFIRMED ABSENT, and confirmed by searching rather than by an empty field. No PEA, PFS or DFS exists for Quiulacocha or El Metalurgista. Targeted searches of the company's releases and the study-specific terms return no NPV or IRR at any date. What DOES exist, and what the absence means: CDPR completed Phase 1 bulk sampling in December 2025 (about 12.3 tonnes moved to Lima under frozen conditions), consolidated its technical, environmental and permitting workstreams through 2025, and states it is working toward a PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY STUDY. A maiden mineral resource estimate for Quiulacocha is still pending. This matters because the whole valuation pillar rests on it: there is no computable anchor here, and the market capitalisation is being paid for optionality on a resource that has not yet been published.",
"data_as_of": {
"price": "2026-09-11",
"financials": "2025-06-30",
"macro": "2026-09-09",
"corporate_actions": "2026-09-12"
},
"scenario_probs": {
"bull": 30,
"base": 45,
"bear": 25
},
"corporate_action_check": "Sweep 4 Aug - 12 Sep 2026. No financing, placement, bought deal or debt facility found. Context from the prior period that the balance sheet still reflects: the FY2025 accounts report net income of US$24.6M driven by the sale of non-core assets, which is what funds the current programme \u2014 this is a developer that sold assets rather than issued paper, and that is unusual enough in this cohort to be worth saying.",
"threshold_fragility": null,
"valuation_model": null,
"superseded_values": [],
"superseded_exempt": {},
"carried_verbatim": [],
"base_signal_short": "HOLD",
"base_signal_medium": "HOLD",
"base_signal_long": "HOLD",
"auto_stop_reason": "Donatien Pick with no BUY on any horizon \u2014 the Decision Matrix returns HOLD at Medium quality, Fair valuation and Improving timing. Stays visible and re-activates automatically on a later BUY. Note the timing pillar is now the strongest of the three, so this is the closest the name has come to reactivating.",
"lint": {
"exit": 1,
"assertions": 54,
"errors": 2,
"warnings": 10,
"could_not_run": [
"CCY-PE-SKIPPED",
"CONF-SKIP",
"FW-RATIO-SKIPPED"
],
"at": "2026-09-12T13:28",
"report": "CDPR.V_Signal_v6_20260912_1800.html"
},
"val_band_na_reason": "NO BAND, and that is the honest answer rather than a gap. A valuation band is derived from the ratio of an actual multiple to a warranted one, and this name has neither: there is no economic study and no published resource estimate, so there is no denominator. An earlier draft of this report wrote 'fair' here, which asserted a band over an anchor the same report says does not exist \u2014 exactly the escape hatch this framework polices. The valuation SCORE of 42 stands as a judgement about what the market capitalisation buys; the BAND is recorded as absent until the maiden resource estimate gives it a denominator.",
"entry_conviction_note": "One of three entry groups is met \u2014 Technical, on price above both the 20- and 50-day averages with higher lows from the C$0.415 base. Fundamental cannot be met at all while there is no computable anchor, and Catalyst needs the maiden MRE to get a date. One group is Half-Size at most, and the signal is HOLD rather than BUY regardless.",
"valuation_lenses": {
"anchor": {
"value": null,
"weight": 0.55,
"note": "ABSENT \u2014 no economic study, no resource estimate, no denominator. Recorded as absent rather than skipped, because a silent skip and a checked absence look identical afterwards."
},
"sector_median": {
"value": "pre-economics Peruvian silver developers trade on EV per in-situ ounce, which requires an ounce count this company has not published",
"weight": 0.2,
"note": "Unusable for the same reason as the anchor. Naming the lens and why it cannot be applied."
},
"peg": {
"value": null,
"weight": 0.1,
"note": "NOT APPLICABLE \u2014 no earnings, no growth rate."
},
"analyst_cross_check": {
"value": "1 analyst, target C$1.25",
"weight": 0.15,
"note": "RECORDED, NOT SCORED. A single target 67% above the price is a data point, not a consensus."
}
},
"valuation_lens_note": "THREE OF FOUR LENSES ARE UNAVAILABLE ON THIS NAME, and that is the finding rather than a deficiency in the workup. A pre-economics developer with no published resource cannot be valued by multiple, by peer median or by PEG. The score is a judgement and the 35% valuation confidence says so.",
"valuation_confidence": 35,
"probability_weighted_target": 0.9
}
HOLD held across all three horizons — stays Stopped (a protected Donatien Pick auto-Stopped on no-BUY, not removed). Modest de-risking since 20 Jul: silver short-trend stabilised (Headwind→Neutral), Economic Alignment upgraded to a mild Tailwind on the 30 Jul macro silver O/SO/SO, and the Excelsior compliant inferred MRE recognised (label correction). None of it clears the ≥65 quality/valuation bars, so the base matrix stays HOLD.