MacroEconomic Summary — Economics Dashboard

⚠ Disclaimer: Quantitative macro framework for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.

Dominant Regime

Stagflation → Contraction

45%

→ Held — conviction rising as Q4 GDP prints 0.5%

Stagflation

45%

→ Unchanged

Deflationary Bust

30%

→ Unchanged · conviction rising

Soft Landing

15%

→ Unchanged

Reacceleration

10%

→ Unchanged

Key market drivers this week

Private Credit & Shadow Banking ⇧ CRITICAL

DOM 5 — CRITICAL

Biggest change this run: the NYT "slow-motion bank run" coverage of the private credit market crystallised — BX and APO are down materially YTD, shadow default rates holding at 6.4%, Blackstone BCRED redemption queue at 8% of NAV. This is now the #1 systemic risk and the primary force pulling the Deflationary Bust scenario conviction higher. Watch HYG and LQD — they are the transmission channel. Full analysis ↗

US Economic Health ⇧ Upgraded

DOM 4 — HIGH

Q4 2025 GDP came in at +0.5% vs the +4.4% prior — an ~4pp shock. Unemployment at 4.3%, consumer credit tightening, LEI still negative. This is not a slowdown, it's a step-change — and it lands the day before a critical CPI print. The evidence now broadly supports the stagflation-to-contraction trajectory. Full analysis ↗

Global Monetary Policy

DOM 4 — HIGH

Fed on hold at 3.64% — trapped between surging inflation and a spreading credit event. With Q4 GDP at 0.5% and private credit at Critical, the cut path is now driven by the credit transmission, not headline inflation. The April 10 CPI is the first real data test of this trap. Full analysis ↗

Iran / Hormuz (ceasefire)

DOM 3 — MODERATE

Ceasefire has held 48 hours. Oil has retraced further, but the Hormuz tail-risk is still live and the ceasefire is explicitly 2-week. Any breach re-activates this driver back to High 4 instantly — which is why we keep it in the calendar-trigger set. Full analysis ↗

US-China Tariff War

DOM 3 — MODERATE

Effective tariff rate 36%. Cost pass-through is now fully embedded in the March CPI/PPI data stream we're about to see. This is a core reason our CPI forecast is above consensus. Full analysis ↗

Capital flow summary — where money is moving

⇧ Inflows — where to deploy

⇧⇧

Gold (GLD)HIGH

4 independent rationales: Private Credit CRITICAL flight-to-quality + CB structural buying + fiscal debasement + de-dollarisation. Highest-conviction signal in the model. IN across all horizons.

⇧⇧

TIPSHIGH

Tariff pass-through fully visible in April 10 CPI + fiscal monetisation risk + Q4 GDP shock compressing real rates. Institutional real money is the biggest buyer. IN short & medium.

⇧⇧

Defense ETFs (XAR)HIGH

NATO €800B structural rearmament + Iran tail-risk (ceasefire 2-week) + one of the few sectors outperforming in BOTH stagflation and deflationary bust scenarios. IN across all horizons.

⇧

JPY / Safe FXMED

Credit-event risk-off bid + BOJ rate hike path + April 17 Japan CPI. Fades as BOJ cycle matures.

⇧

Silver (SLV)MED

5th consecutive annual supply deficit, solar consuming 160M oz/yr. Structural medium–long inflow.

⇩ Outflows — where to reduce

⇩⇩

High Yield (HYG)HIGH

Worst net signal in the model. Private Credit CRITICAL + shadow defaults 6.4% leaking into public HY + Q4 GDP 0.5% recession path + tariff margin compression. OUT across all horizons.

⇩⇩

US Equities (SPY)HIGH

Q4 GDP 0.5% shock + Private Credit CRITICAL + tariff margin squeeze + CPI print tomorrow = multiple compression and earnings downgrades. OUT short & medium.

⇩⇩

US Tech (QQQ)HIGH

Q4 GDP shock + tariff chip restrictions + credit-contagion SaaS customer risk. OUT short only; AI tailwind reasserts long.

⇩⇩

EM Equities (EEM)HIGH

Triple pressure: Q4 US growth shock drags global demand + tariff war disrupts export chains + April 16 China GDP test on deck. OUT short & medium.

⇩

US Dollar (UUP)MED

CB reserve managers reducing USD from 59% toward 52% by 2030. Slow but durable structural outflow. OUT medium & long.

⚡ Divergences & Feedback Loops

⚡ TLT: Real buying vs Fast selling

Real money (pensions, SWFs) buying TLT as private credit flight-to-quality + anticipating Fed cuts mid-2026.
Fast money shorting on inflation + fiscal supply (10Y at 4.38%, rising).

→ Real money likely prevails 3–6m. Credit event = TLT spikes. Full analysis ↗

⚡ Oil (USO): Hormuz tail-risk vs demand destruction

Real money trimming length as ceasefire holds + Q4 GDP shock signals demand weakness.
Fast money short on the 2-week ceasefire holding.

→ Binary: ceasefire holds → $95–105 demand-driven; breaks → $150+ supply shock. Full analysis ↗

🔄 Most Active Feedback Loop

Credit → Growth → Default → Credit. Private credit (2021–22 vintage) facing coverage ratios below 1.0×. Defaults → lenders tighten → growth slows → more defaults. Accelerating. Bank Q1 earnings April 14 are the key test.

Jump to: Forecast Calendar Economic Regime Asset Class Forecast Watchlist Forecast Full Report ↗

2Economic Forecast Calendar

9–17 April 2026 · Know what's coming and what it means before it happens. Each scheduled event shows the market consensus, the MacroDriver forecast, and — if the forecast is correct — which assets are likely to move and in which direction. Use this to position ahead of catalysts rather than react after them. · Boris forecast vs market consensus · Scenario weights: Stagflation 45% | Deflationary Bust 30% | Soft Landing 15% | Reacceleration 10%

📅 Week of 9–17 April 2026

APR

US CPI — March 2026 (TOMORROW)CRITICAL

The single dominant catalyst of the week and arguably the month. This is the first headline inflation read to capture the full March tariff pass-through, embedded Iran energy cost increases, and — critically — the first print landing after the Q4 GDP shock (0.5% vs 4.4% prior). It will determine whether the Fed faces stagflation (hot print) or contraction (cool print). The entire scenario weighting is conditional on this print.

Market Expectation

2.6% YoY headline; 2.7% core YoY — modest tariff pass-through

Boris Forecast

3.2% YoY headline (Boris well above consensus); 2.9% core. Tariff + residual Iran energy costs fully in March data. If correct, Fed Q2 cut pricing collapses, stagflation conviction snaps higher.

If correct → ▼ TLT -2%▲ TIPS +2%▲ GLD +2–3%▼ SPY -2%▼ SOFI -3%▲ MNO.TO +4–6%

MEDIUM · 55%

APR

US PPI — March 2026 · Bank Q1 Earnings BeginHIGH

PPI leads CPI by 2–3 months and shows upstream tariff + energy cost pressure. On the same day the big US banks start reporting Q1 — JPM, Wells, Citi — and the market's first read on whether private credit stress has leaked into the public bank loan book. The combination makes April 14 the second-most-critical day of the week.

Market Expectation

2.8% YoY PPI; bank NIMs stable, provisions modestly higher

Boris Forecast

3.3% YoY PPI; banks guide provisions higher on CRE and private-credit-adjacent exposures. Credit concerns dominate the narrative.

If correct → ▼ HYG -1.5%▼ LQD -0.5%▲ TIPS +1%▲ GLD +1.5%▼ SOFI -2.5%

MEDIUM · 50%

APR

China Q1 GDPHIGH

First full quarter under the new tariff regime. Will reveal the real drag on Chinese exports and whether the PBOC stimulus response has stabilised domestic demand. A weak print reinforces deglobalisation + EM headwind; a strong print offers partial relief to EEM and industrial metals.

Market Expectation

4.7% YoY — modest slowdown, stimulus partially offsetting tariff drag

Boris Forecast

4.3% YoY — tariff drag larger than consensus, PBOC stimulus still lagging. Confirms EM Underperform positioning.

If correct → ▼ EEM -2%▼ Copper -1.5%▼ DLO -2%▲ GLD +1%

MEDIUM · 50%

3Economic Asset Class Forecast

Your macro-driven playbook for positioning across 15 asset classes. Each row shows whether an asset is expected to outperform or underperform the market over three distinct time horizons — Short (0–4 weeks), Medium (1–6 months), and Long (6–18 months). Read across the row to see how the outlook shifts as temporary drivers fade and structural forces take over.

Asset Class	Short (0–4w)	Medium (1–6m)	Long (6–18m)	Key Rationale
Equities
US Large Cap (SPY)	Strong Underperform	Underperform	Neutral	Short: Q4 GDP 0.5% growth shock + Private Credit CRITICAL contagion + tariff margin squeeze + CPI print tomorrow. Medium: credit event pathway dominant; earnings downgrades accelerating. Long: Fed forced to ease, recovery priced in.
US Growth/Tech (QQQ)	Strong Underperform	Underperform	Neutral	Short: Q4 GDP shock + Private Credit CRITICAL + tariff chip restrictions. Medium: credit contagion still dominant; AI tailwind partial offset. Long: AI productivity supercycle structural.
EM Equities (EEM)	Strong Underperform	Underperform	Neutral	Short: Q4 GDP shock pulls global demand lower + tariff war + China slowdown. Medium: China GDP April 16 key test; stimulus response still lagging. Long: de-dollarisation + China stimulus partially offset deglobalisation.
Fixed Income
Long Treasuries (TLT)	Outperform	Outperform	Neutral	Short: Private Credit CRITICAL flight-to-quality bid + Q4 GDP shock accelerates rate-cut pricing. Medium: Fed forced to cut faster than dot plot. Long: fiscal supply headwind offsets easing — neutralises over 6–18m.
TIPS	Strong Outperform	Strong Outperform	Outperform	Strongest fixed income signal across all horizons: tariff pass-through embedded in April 10 CPI print + fiscal monetisation + Q4 GDP shock driving real-rate compression all support inflation protection demand.
High Yield (HYG)	Strong Underperform	Strong Underperform	Underperform	Worst fixed income signal: Private Credit now CRITICAL 5 + shadow defaults 6.4% leaking into public HY + Q4 GDP shock cements recession path. Long: credit cycle resolution reduces to Underperform.
IG Credit (LQD)	Underperform	Underperform	Neutral	Credit spread widening from private credit contagion offsets partial flight-to-quality. Long: if credit cycle resolves, spreads normalise.
Commodities
Gold (GLD)	Strong Outperform	Strong Outperform	Strong Outperform	Strongest signal of all 15 assets across all horizons: Private Credit CRITICAL flight-to-quality + CB structural buying + fiscal debasement + de-dollarisation — four independent rationales converge.
Silver (SLV)	Outperform	Outperform	Strong Outperform	Short/Medium: gold correlation + supply deficit (5th consecutive year). Long: solar manufacturing 160M oz/yr + supply deficit deepening = structural Strong Outperform.
Oil (USO)	Neutral	Underperform	Underperform	Short: ceasefire holding + Q4 GDP 0.5% growth shock = demand destruction dominant. Medium/Long: recession path + energy transition reduces structural demand.
Agriculture (DBA)	Outperform	Outperform	Neutral	Short/Medium: Iran food cost shock + tariff trade fragmentation + climate background. Long: normalises as shocks resolve.
Copper / Ind Metals	Underperform	Neutral	Outperform	Short: demand slowdown dominant. Medium: tariff de-escalation + China stimulus stabilise. Long: electrification supercycle — EV/grid/solar structural Outperform.
Defense ETFs (XAR)	Strong Outperform	Strong Outperform	Strong Outperform	NATO €800B structural rearmament + Iran tail-risk (ceasefire 2-week only) + 10-year defense capex supercycle. One of the few sectors outperforming in both the stagflation AND deflationary bust scenarios.
Currencies & Alternatives
US Dollar (UUP)	Underperform	Underperform	Underperform	Fed cutting into structural de-dollarisation trend. CB reserve managers reducing USD allocation 59% → 52% by 2030. Consistent Underperform across all horizons.
JPY / Safe FX	Strong Outperform	Outperform	Neutral	Short: Private Credit flight-to-quality + BOJ rate hike path + April 17 Japan CPI. Medium: BOJ hiking continues. Long: carry trade fully unwinds, rate differential normalises — reverts to Neutral.

4Economic Watchlist Forecast

How the current macro environment is affecting your specific holdings. Each stock is assessed against the active drivers based on its sector, geography, and business model — showing whether the macro backdrop is a tailwind, headwind, or neutral across Short, Medium, and Long horizons. Use this to decide where to add, reduce, or hold within your portfolio.

Stock	Macro Profile	Short (0–4w)	Medium (1–6m)	Long (6–18m)	Key Macro Rationale
MNO.TO (CAD) Meridian Mining PLC Last: C$1.72	Junior gold miner · Cabaçal project, Brazil · 100% gold leverage · No revenue yet · Pre-production	Strong Outperform	Strong Outperform	Strong Outperform	Pure gold leverage (2–3× GLD moves) with gold at record highs. Four independent tailwinds stacked: Private Credit CRITICAL flight-to-quality, CB structural buying, de-dollarisation, fiscal debasement. Junior leverage amplifies gold signal. C$1.72 vs analyst targets C$2.97–$3.50. IL submission H1 2026 as catalyst.
SOFI SoFi Technologies Last: $16.11	US fintech · Consumer/student loans · Rate-sensitive · Q1 earnings April 29 · NASDAQ domestic	Underperform	Neutral	Neutral	Short: Private Credit CRITICAL + Q4 GDP shock 0.5% + consumer credit tightening + unemployment 4.3% = direct hit to SOFI's loan book. Stop at $14.50; earnings April 29 a near-term catalyst risk. Medium: Fed cuts (accelerated by growth shock) provide net-interest-margin relief. Long: AI transformation of fintech provides competitive pressure.
DLO dLocal Limited Last: $12.74	EM payments platform · Brazil, Mexico, EM · USD-functional · Tariff war EM exposure · NASDAQ listed	Neutral	Neutral	Outperform	Short/Medium: EM risk-off headwind (EEM Strong Underperform) + China GDP April 16 catalyst + Q4 US growth shock globally negative. Hold above $12.19 support. Long: De-dollarisation structural tailwind — EM payment digitisation + non-USD settlement growth + USD decline benefits DLO's business model fundamentally. Q1 earnings May 14 key catalyst.

Data Source Status

✓ get_key_economic_indicators — all series live

✓ get_economic_series — FEDFUNDS/CPI/UNRATE/DGS10/VIX/M2/DXY OK

✓ get_economic_calendar — 21 days forward window

✓ get_stock_snapshot (15 ETFs) — all proxies priced 9 Apr close

✓ search_financial_news (8 queries) — driver scrub complete

✓ watchlist.json / prior state — MacroDriver-20260407 loaded