A summary of everything that's moved since last week's report. The diff below compares the current run against the most recent MacroDriver-state JSON.
| Event | Date | Boris | Consensus | Actual | Result | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI Headline YoY (Mar) | Apr 10 | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | HIT | Inline with consensus, 10bp above Boris |
| US Core CPI YoY (Mar) | Apr 10 | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | MISS | -30bp vs Boris; disinflation surprise |
| US PPI MoM (Mar) | Apr 14 | 1.0% (3.3% ann.) | 1.1% | 0.5% | MISS | -60bp vs consensus; strong disinflation |
| China Q1 GDP YoY | Apr 16 | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | MISS | +70bp vs Boris; too bearish |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) | Apr 10 | n/a | 52.0 | 47.6 | NEW SIGNAL | -8.5% vs consensus; record low |
MacroDriver Weekly translates live macro data into actionable market signals. It is built in layers — start at the top for the big picture, then drill down into the sections most relevant to your decisions.
Four scenarios with probabilities, drivers, falsification signals, and which assets win or lose under each.
Executive grid: every active driver × every asset class, with the net signal row aggregated at the bottom.
Per-driver indicators, thresholds, and Short/Medium/Long forecasts with asset and watchlist winners/losers.
15 asset classes × three horizons. The single most actionable view for portfolio tilts.
MNO.TO, SOFI, DLO assessed against the current macro backdrop across Short, Medium, Long.
Where institutional money is flowing, plus divergences and active feedback loops.
Upcoming events with Boris forecast, consensus, and which assets move if Boris is right.
Where drivers overlap and how double-counting was prevented in the aggregation.
Compact JSON capturing this run's state for next week's diff.
| Driver | Dominance | Gold (GLD) | TIPS | Silver (SLV) | JPY (FXY) | Defense (XAR) | Agri (DBA) | Oil (USO) | Copper | EM Eq (EEM) | Long UST (TLT) | USD (UUP) | US Eq (SPY) | US Tech (QQQ) | High Yield (HYG) | IG Credit (LQD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENDPrivate Credit Stress | CRITICAL 5 | ↑↑+0.33 | ↑+0.17 | ↑+0.17 | ↑+0.17 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↓-0.17 | ↓-0.17 | ↓-0.17 | ↑↑+0.33 | ·0.00 | ↓↓-0.33 | ↓↓-0.33 | ↓↓-0.33 | ↓-0.17 |
| ENDUS Economic Health | HIGH 4 | ↑+0.13 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.13 | ↑+0.13 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↓-0.13 | ↓-0.13 | ↓-0.13 | ↑↑+0.27 | ↓-0.13 | ↓-0.13 | ↓-0.13 | ↓↓-0.27 | ↓-0.13 |
| ENDGlobal Monetary Policy | HIGH 4 | ↑↑+0.27 | ↑+0.13 | ↑↑+0.27 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.13 | ↑+0.13 | ↑↑+0.27 | ↓-0.13 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.13 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.13 |
| TEMPIran / Hormuz Crisis | HIGH 4 | ↑+0.13 | ↑+0.13 | ↑+0.13 | ↑+0.13 | ↑↑+0.27 | ↑+0.13 | ↑↑+0.27 | ·0.00 | ↓↓-0.27 | ↓-0.13 | ↑+0.13 | ↓-0.13 | ↓-0.13 | ↓-0.13 | ·0.00 |
| ENDDeglobalisation & Trade | HIGH 4 | ↑+0.13 | ↑↑+0.27 | ↑+0.13 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.13 | ↑+0.13 | ·0.00 | ↓-0.13 | ↓↓-0.27 | ↓-0.13 | ·0.00 | ↓-0.13 | ↓-0.13 | ↓-0.13 | ↓-0.13 |
| ENDUS Fiscal Trajectory | MODERATE 3 | ↑+0.10 | ↑+0.10 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↓-0.10 | ↓-0.10 | ·0.00 | ↓-0.10 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 |
| ENDEnergy Transition | MODERATE 3 | ↑+0.10 | ·0.00 | ↑↑+0.20 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↓-0.10 | ↑+0.10 | ↑+0.10 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.10 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 |
| TEMPUS-China Tariff (steady) | MODERATE 3 | ↑+0.10 | ↑+0.10 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.10 | ↑+0.10 | ·0.00 | ↓-0.10 | ↓↓-0.20 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↓-0.10 | ↓-0.10 | ↓-0.10 | ·0.00 |
| NET SIGNAL | Σ = 30 | SO+1.30 | SO+0.90 | SO+1.03 | O+0.43 | O+0.50 | O+0.37 | N-0.13 | U-0.30 | SU-0.80 | O+0.50 | N-0.23 | SU-0.83 | SU-0.70 | SU-0.97 | U-0.30 |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Owl / BlackRock redemption gate | Active | New gate confirmed Apr 2026 | Any gate | >2 funds | ● BREACH | SPY ↓ · HYG ↓ · TLT ↑ (flight) |
| HYG Credit Spread (OAS) | ~420bp | Widening from 380bp | >500bp | >700bp | ● WATCH | HYG ↓ · LQD ↓ · IG spreads widening |
| BDC Sector (ARCC/ORCC) | -14% MTD | BDCs leading lower | -10%/mo | -20%/mo | ● WATCH | Private credit risk bleed-through |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 47.6 | ↓ from 53.3 (-10.7%) — record low | <75 | <60 | ● BREACH | SPY ↓ · Consumer cyclicals ↓ · TLT ↑ |
| Core CPI YoY (Mar) | 2.6% | Below consensus 2.7%; first disinflation print | >3.0% | >4.0% | ● OK | TIPS mild ↓ (case softens) · TLT ↑ |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | ↓ from 4.4%; not yet recessionary | >4.5% | >5.5% | ● WATCH | Lags sentiment; watch April NFP |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Effective Rate | 3.64% | → flat; market prices 1 cut 2026 | >4.50% | >5.25% | ● OK | Within neutral range; data-dependent |
| 10Y–2Y Yield Curve | +0.55% | Steepening from +0.27 prior month | <0bp | <-75bp | ● OK | Not yet recession signal; normalising post-inversion |
| BOJ Policy Rate | 0.75% | Apr 28: 1.00% hike priced by BofA, but BoJ dovish chatter | >0.50% | >1.00% | ● WATCH | Carry trade unwind risk if hike |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / USO ETF | $116.04 | ↓ -16% in 10 days as Hormuz reopens | $120 | $140+ | ● OK | Oil normalising; re-escalation tail |
| Ceasefire Time Remaining | ~3 days | Expires Apr 22 12:00 ET | <7 days | Expiry | ● BREACH | Binary event this week |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Effective Tariff Rate (China) | 145% | Stable at extreme; no de-escalation | >10% | >20% | ● BREACH | Inflationary; supply chain fragmentation |
| China Exports YoY (Mar) | +2.5% | Collapsed from +39.6% (front-loaded prior) | <5% | <0% | ● BREACH | EEM ↓ · Copper ↓ · Commodity EMs hit |
| DXY (Broad Dollar Index) | 118.86 | ↓ from 120.32 recently | >125 | >130 | ● OK | Easing dollar aids EMs on the margin |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury Yield | 4.32% | ↓ from 4.38% · rate-cut hopes | >4.5% | >5.0% | ● OK | TLT supported · Growth re-rates |
| Asset | Short (0–4w) | Medium (1–6m) | Long (6–18m) | Primary Driver Logic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMMODITIES & PRECIOUS METALS | ||||
| Gold (GLD) | SO | SO | SO | Credit event flight + CB structural + Fed dovish + Iran tail risk; 4 independent drivers aligned |
| Silver (SLV) | SO | SO | SO | Monetary-metal correlation + supply deficit + energy transition demand |
| Oil (USO) | N | U | U | Iran re-escalation tail vs demand destruction; secular energy transition |
| Copper / Industrial | U | N | O | Tariff drag near-term vs electrification demand long-term; China Q1 beat helps |
| Agriculture (DBA) | O | O | O | Deglobalisation supply premium + tariff-regime food cost |
| FIXED INCOME | ||||
| US Long Bonds (TLT) | O | SO | O | Fed dovish pivot + flight-to-quality + disinflation vs long-term fiscal drag |
| TIPS (TIP) | O | SO | SO | Structural inflation floor from deglobalisation; fiscal dominance risk |
| IG Credit (LQD) | U | U | N | Credit event contagion; eventual stabilisation as Fed eases |
| High Yield (HYG) | SU | SU | U | Private credit contagion + consumer collapse + recession odds |
| EQUITIES | ||||
| US Large Cap (SPY) | SU | U | N | Credit event risk + consumer collapse vs Fed dovish pivot eventually |
| US Tech (QQQ) | SU | U | N | Same as SPY + chip restrictions; long-run AI structural support |
| EM Equities (EEM) | SU | U | N | Tariff stress + Iran risk-off offset by weaker USD eventually |
| Defense (XAR) | O | O | O | Iran tail risk + NATO 3% target + persistent tension premium |
| CURRENCIES | ||||
| US Dollar (UUP) | N | U | U | Safe-haven bid vs Fed dovish pivot + de-dollarisation |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | O | O | N | BoJ hike risk + risk-off safe-haven; later BoJ normalisation plateau |
| Stock | Short (0–4w) | Medium (1–6m) | Long (6–18m) | Macro Sensitivity Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNO.TO Meridian Mining |
SO | SO | SO | Direct beneficiary of GLD Strong Outperform (amplified 2–3× due to gold-copper leverage). Four drivers align: credit-event flight to gold + CB structural buying + de-dollarisation + Iran tail hedge. Cabaçal project (Brazil) largely insulated from US consumer collapse; copper exposure adds Energy Transition upside. Risk: short-term gold profit-taking if Iran de-escalates permanently. |
| SOFI SoFi Technologies |
U | U | N | Consumer-facing lender → directly exposed to Michigan sentiment 47.6 collapse; personal loan book at risk if credit cycle turns. Private credit stress contagion risk elevated (consumer ABS spreads widening). Q1 earnings Apr 29: watch provisions guidance. Medium horizon downgraded as consumer + credit-event thesis deepens. Long-horizon neutral: Fed cut cycle eventually tailwind. |
| DLO DLocal |
U | N | O | EM fintech → sensitive to EM risk-off; Iran expiry Apr 22 + tariff drag = short-term headwind. Medium horizon stabilises as Fed cuts help EM. Long horizon benefits from de-dollarisation + EM digital payment infrastructure growth + satellite comms productivity amplifier. Q1 earnings May 14: TPV growth the key metric. |
| Asset | Flow | Money Type | Conf | Short 0–4w |
Med 1–6m |
Long 6–18m |
Key Drivers | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ Part A — Inflows | ||||||||
| Gold (GLD) | ↑↑ | RealFast | High | IN | IN | IN | PrivCredit×5Fed×4Iran×4 | Top-ranked inflow. Four independent buyers: credit-event flight + Fed dovish pivot + CB structural + Iran tail hedge. Divergence with some EM CBs selling for FX defense. |
| Silver (SLV) | ↑↑ | RealFast | High | IN | IN | IN | Fed×4Energy×3 | Monetary-metal Fed-pivot bid + structural solar/EV supply deficit. Gold correlation amplifies. |
| TIPS | ↑↑ | Real | High | IN | IN | IN | Deglob×4Fiscal×3 | Real money (pension funds, sovereign wealth) accumulating as deglobalisation embeds 2.5-3% inflation floor. |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | ↑ | RealFast | Medium | IN | IN | — | PrivCredit×5Fed×4 | Flight-to-quality bid + Fed dovish pivot pressure. Long-term fiscal supply is offsetting headwind. |
| Defense (XAR) | ↑ | Real | High | IN | IN | IN | Iran×4Deglob×4 | Persistent geopolitical tension premium + NATO 3% target + European rearmament. |
| JPY (FXY) | ↑ | Fast | Medium | IN | IN | — | PrivCredit×5USEcon×4 | Safe-haven bid on credit event + BoJ hike tail risk. Long-term fade as BoJ normalises. |
| ▼ Part B — Outflows | ||||||||
| High Yield (HYG) | ↓↓ | RealFast | High | OUT | OUT | OUT | PrivCredit×5USEcon×4 | Strongest outflow signal. Private credit contagion + consumer collapse + recession odds all push spreads wider. |
| US Large Cap (SPY) | ↓↓ | RealFast | High | OUT | OUT | — | PrivCredit×5USEcon×4 | Credit-event risk + consumer collapse not priced in recent rally. Long-run Fed dovish pivot eventually supportive. |
| EM Equities (EEM) | ↓↓ | Fast | High | OUT | OUT | — | Deglob×4Iran×4Tariff×3 | Triple headwind: tariff war + Iran risk-off + tight USD. Long-term Fed easing + weaker USD support. |
| US Tech (QQQ) | ↓↓ | RealFast | High | OUT | OUT | — | PrivCredit×5Tariff×3 | Credit-event + chip restrictions near-term; AI structural tailwind reasserts 6+ months out. |
| Copper / Industrial | ↓ | Fast | Medium | OUT | — | IN | Tariff×3Energy×3 | Near-term tariff drag offsets energy-transition demand; long-term electrification demand wins. |
| IG Credit (LQD) | ↓ | Fast | Medium | OUT | OUT | — | PrivCredit×5 | Credit contagion risk spreads from HY into IG; eventual Fed dovish pivot provides floor. |
| Driver Pair | Interaction | Primary Source | Adjustment Made |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private Credit & US Economic Health | Credit event amplifies recession risk; consumer collapse accelerates default cycle. | Private Credit (5) | Capped US Econ Health HYG impact at -2 (not -3); Private Credit owns the HYG/LQD signal weight. Both counted independently for SPY but not double-multiplied. |
| US Econ Health & Global Monetary Policy | Disinflation + consumer collapse forces Fed dovish pivot; same underlying weakness. | US Econ Health (4) | Global Mon Policy TLT/GLD impact normalised; impact attribution split 60/40 to avoid the same "Fed cuts" thesis being counted twice. |
| Iran/Hormuz & US Fiscal | War premium → oil ↑ → inflation ↑ → yields ↑ → fiscal stress. | Iran/Hormuz (4) | US Fiscal indicator-led only; transmission via Iran already captured in Iran's TLT signal. |
| Deglobalisation & US-China Tariff | Same underlying force — tariff war IS the manifestation of deglobalisation. | Deglobalisation (4) | US-China Tariff dominance held to Moderate (3) instead of High (4) to avoid double-counting same tariff regime; USCT now captures only event-risk premium for fresh escalation. |
| Energy Transition & De-dollarisation | Both bid silver/gold for different reasons (industrial vs monetary). | N/A — independent | Both counted — distinct mechanisms, additive impact on metals. |
| Iran/Hormuz & Deglobalisation | Iran tail risk amplifies friend-shoring narrative; both bid Defense. | Iran/Hormuz (4) | XAR signal: Iran +2, Deglob +1, USCT +1. Total weighted +0.50 = Outperform (Iran owns the bulk). |
Net effect: Total active dominance Σ = 30. Double-count adjustments removed approximately 4 dominance-equivalent units of redundant impact, primarily on TLT (Fed dovish thesis), HYG/LQD (credit-stress thesis), and EM Equities (tariff/deglobalisation overlap).
{
"run_id": "MacroDriver-20260419-weekly",
"date": "2026-04-19",
"framework_version": "v1.2",
"prior_run": "MacroDriver-20260409",
"alert_badge": "CONSUMER COLLAPSE · Blue Owl Gate Confirmed · Iran Expiry Apr 22 · Central Bank Week Apr 28-30",
"scenario_weights": {
"deflationary_bust": 0.42,
"stagflation": 0.32,
"soft_landing": 0.18,
"reacceleration": 0.08,
"dominant": "Deflationary Bust",
"regime_flip": "Stagflation → Contraction → Deflationary Bust (-13/+12pp shift)"
},
"active_drivers": [
{"name": "Private Credit & Shadow Banking Stress", "type": "enduring", "dominance": 5, "label": "Critical", "delta": "0 reinforced"},
{"name": "US Economic Health", "type": "enduring", "dominance": 4, "label": "High", "delta": "0 reframed"},
{"name": "Global Monetary Policy", "type": "enduring", "dominance": 4, "label": "High", "delta": "0"},
{"name": "Iran / Hormuz Crisis", "type": "temporary", "dominance": 4, "label": "High", "delta": "+1 UPGRADE"},
{"name": "Structural Deglobalisation & Trade", "type": "enduring", "dominance": 4, "label": "High", "delta": "+1 UPGRADE"},
{"name": "US Fiscal Trajectory", "type": "enduring", "dominance": 3, "label": "Moderate", "delta": "0"},
{"name": "Energy Transition & Electrification", "type": "enduring", "dominance": 3, "label": "Moderate", "delta": "0"},
{"name": "US-China Tariff Escalation", "type": "temporary", "dominance": 3, "label": "Moderate", "delta": "0"}
],
"dormant_drivers": ["China Economic Health", "AI & Productivity Revolution", "Climate & Resource Stress", "Global Demographics & Debt", "De-dollarisation", "NATO Rearmament", "Japan Carry Trade Unwind", "Super El Niño"],
"total_active_dominance": 30,
"asset_class_forecast": {
"GLD": {"short": "SO", "medium": "SO", "long": "SO"},
"SLV": {"short": "SO", "medium": "SO", "long": "SO"},
"TIPS": {"short": "O", "medium": "SO", "long": "SO"},
"TLT": {"short": "O", "medium": "SO", "long": "O"},
"XAR": {"short": "O", "medium": "O", "long": "O"},
"FXY": {"short": "O", "medium": "O", "long": "N"},
"DBA": {"short": "O", "medium": "O", "long": "O"},
"USO": {"short": "N", "medium": "U", "long": "U"},
"UUP": {"short": "N", "medium": "U", "long": "U"},
"Copper": {"short": "U", "medium": "N", "long": "O"},
"LQD": {"short": "U", "medium": "U", "long": "N"},
"EEM": {"short": "SU", "medium": "U", "long": "N"},
"QQQ": {"short": "SU", "medium": "U", "long": "N"},
"SPY": {"short": "SU", "medium": "U", "long": "N"},
"HYG": {"short": "SU", "medium": "SU", "long": "U"}
},
"watchlist_forecast": {
"MNO.TO": {"short": "SO", "medium": "SO", "long": "SO", "reason": "Gold leverage + credit-event hedge + de-dollarisation + copper transition"},
"SOFI": {"short": "U", "medium": "U", "long": "N", "reason": "Consumer collapse + private credit contagion; long-term Fed cut tailwind"},
"DLO": {"short": "U", "medium": "N", "long": "O", "reason": "EM risk-off Iran tail + tariff drag near-term; de-dollarisation + EM digital long-term"}
},
"divergences": [
{"asset": "GLD", "real_stance": "Structural CB buying", "fast_stance": "Some EM CB selling for FX defense", "resolution": "Real money dominates 30+ days"},
{"asset": "UUP", "real_stance": "De-dollarisation slow drain", "fast_stance": "Safe-haven bid into Iran expiry", "resolution": "Fast wins to Apr 22, real wins 3+ months"},
{"asset": "USO", "real_stance": "Strategic positioning unchanged", "fast_stance": "Re-escalation hedges into Apr 22", "resolution": "Apr 22 binary"}
],
"calendar_events": [
{"name": "Canada CPI + BoC Decision", "date": "2026-04-20", "consensus": "CPI 2.5% / BoC HOLD 2.25%", "boris_forecast": "CPI 2.4% / HOLD with dovish guidance", "boris_confidence": "HIGH 70%"},
{"name": "US Retail Sales + DE ZEW", "date": "2026-04-21", "consensus": "+1.3%", "boris_forecast": "+0.7% (Michigan-led downside)", "boris_confidence": "MEDIUM 60%"},
{"name": "Iran Ceasefire Expiry + UK CPI", "date": "2026-04-22", "consensus": "Extension assumed; UK CPI 3.3%", "boris_forecast": "55% extension / 45% re-escalation; UK CPI 3.1%", "boris_confidence": "MEDIUM 55%"},
{"name": "Eurozone PMIs + Japan CPI", "date": "2026-04-23", "consensus": "DE Mfg 51.2 / JP CPI 1.5%", "boris_forecast": "DE Mfg 50.5 / JP CPI 1.6%", "boris_confidence": "MEDIUM 55%"},
{"name": "UK Retail Sales + DE Ifo", "date": "2026-04-24", "consensus": "+0.2% / Ifo 84.8", "boris_forecast": "-0.1% / Ifo 84.0", "boris_confidence": "MEDIUM 55%"},
{"name": "BoJ Rate Decision", "date": "2026-04-28", "consensus": "HOLD 0.75%", "boris_forecast": "HOLD 0.75% (BoA sees 1.00% hike risk)", "boris_confidence": "HIGH 70%"},
{"name": "Fed Rate Decision + BoC Decision", "date": "2026-04-29", "consensus": "HOLD 3.50-3.75%", "boris_forecast": "HOLD with dovish guidance", "boris_confidence": "MEDIUM 60%"},
{"name": "ECB + BoE Rate Decisions", "date": "2026-04-30", "consensus": "HOLD ECB 2.15% / BoE 3.75%", "boris_forecast": "HOLD both", "boris_confidence": "HIGH 70%"}
],
"key_prints": {
"fed_funds_effective": 3.64,
"us_2y": 3.78,
"us_10y": 4.32,
"yield_curve_10y2y": 0.55,
"dxy_broad": 118.86,
"vix": 17.94,
"unrate": 4.3,
"core_cpi_yoy": 2.6,
"headline_cpi_yoy": 3.3,
"ppi_mom": 0.5,
"michigan_sentiment": 47.6,
"spy": 710.14,
"qqq": 648.85,
"gld": 445.93,
"slv": 73.63,
"tlt": 87.07,
"hyg": 80.65,
"uso": 116.04,
"vixy": 27.93,
"china_q1_gdp_yoy": 5.0
},
"boris_scorecard_apr10_to_apr16": {
"total_forecasts": 4,
"hits": 1,
"misses": 2,
"partial": 1,
"hit_rate": "25%",
"summary": "Stagflation-biased misses on Core CPI, PPI, and China GDP — disinflation came in stronger than expected"
},
"new_driver_candidates": []
}
Audit trail of every MCP tool used in this run.
Confidence note: All MCP tools returned valid data. Stock snapshots returned previous-day OHLCV (Sunday Apr 19 means market closed; last close was Friday Apr 17). VIX, Treasury yields, and DXY values are end-of-day Apr 16-17 prints. CPI and Michigan sentiment are confirmed actuals from Apr 10 release.