Cerro de Pasco Resources Inc. (TSXV:CDPR) HOLD
Cerro de Pasco Resources wants to reprocess a century of above-ground mine waste in Peru for silver, and the metal is already broken and on surface — pilot tests recovered about 94 percent of it. But it is a pre-economic-study developer with no NPV to value it on, so the call is HOLD on every horizon, and the analysis is Stopped. Bear C$0.40, bull C$1.10.
This re-presents the Donatien Investment report on Cerro de Pasco Resources (TSXV:CDPR), dated 4 August 2026, at C$0.60. It is a high-risk, pre-economic-study silver developer — HOLD on all three horizons, analysis Stopped (a protected watch-name auto-stopped with no BUY in any horizon).
The asset
What makes this story distinctive is that the metal is already mined. Cerro de Pasco plans to reprocess a century of above-ground waste at the old Cerro de Pasco complex in central Peru, rather than dig a new mine. Its 100-percent-owned Excelsior stockpile carries a compliant inferred resource of about 42.9 million ounces of silver, and bench and pilot work has recovered roughly 94 percent of that silver into a single high-grade concentrate. The flagship Quiulacocha tailings is bigger still, but not yet counted. Business quality scores a middling 62 — the asset is real, the stage is early.
The stage and the price
Here is the catch, and it is why this cannot be more than a hold. There is no economic study — no preliminary economic assessment, no NPV — on either asset, so there is nothing to anchor the valuation to. The flagship Quiulacocha is still pre-resource, with a maiden estimate not expected until the second half of 2026; the large 423-million-ounce figure that circulates is a non-compliant exploration target, not a number you can bank on. At roughly 336 million Canadian dollars of enterprise value, you are paying for the proven part plus an un-priced option — fully valued for the stage, which is why valuation scores just 45.
The call
So the call is hold on every horizon, and with no buy anywhere the analysis status is Stopped. The tape is basing between roughly 55 and 62 cents after unwinding off the January highs, but price is still below both the 50- and 200-day lines, so there is no confirmed entry — timing scores 48. The balance sheet helps: about 23 million Canadian dollars of net cash and a two-year runway, though funding the path to development will almost certainly need a dilutive raise. The catalyst that could change the story is the maiden Quiulacocha resource, due in the second half of the year. One to watch, not to chase.
What could go wrong
The risks are loud and they are structural. This is a pre-economic-study developer, years from any production, so the whole thesis rides on a maiden resource landing well — and it could disappoint or slip. It is cash-burning, so a financing is likely, probably at a discount and diluting holders. Silver itself is the swing factor: a break back below about 45 US dollars would re-arm the commodity bear and compress the entire silver-developer complex regardless of asset quality. Add single-country Peru political and permitting risk on a legacy-liability site, and a thin micro-cap tape where a single fill can move the price. The bear case is about 40 cents.
Risk vs Reward
Over the next year the base case is about 75 cents, a 50 percent probability — the maiden resource lands broadly as expected, metallurgy holds at pilot scale, and silver stays range-bound. The bull case is about one dollar ten at 28 percent, if the resource confirms a large, compliant silver deposit and silver re-rallies. The bear case is about 40 cents at 22 percent, if silver rolls over again or the resource disappoints and forces a dilutive raise. That is a probability-weighted centre near 77 cents — modestly above the current 60 — but the spread is wide and binary on the maiden estimate, which is itself the reason the signal is hold, not a directional bet.
The verdict
So it is a hold on all three horizons, and the analysis is Stopped with no buy anywhere. This is a real, distinctive, above-ground silver asset with high recoveries, net cash and large un-priced optionality — but it is early, pre-economic-study, and dependent on a maiden resource and on the silver price. There is no confirmed entry and no economic anchor to call it cheap. The things to watch are a reclaim of the 61-cent 50-day line and the maiden Quiulacocha resource in the second half of the year. Educational, not advice — this is a speculative, high-volatility name to watch, not to chase.
Read the full report on donatien.ca →
