Cerro de Pasco Resources is a development-stage Peruvian resource company whose plan is to reprocess the enormous above-ground mine-waste of the 100-year-old Cerro de Pasco mining complex in central Peru — rather than dig a new mine. Its flagship is the Quiulacocha tailings storage facility, a historical exploration target of roughly 423 million ounces of silver-equivalent (silver, zinc, lead, copper, gold, plus the critical metals gallium and indium); a separate, 100%-owned asset, the Excelsior stockpile on the El Metalurgista concession, already carries a compliant NI 43-101 inferred resource of 42.9 million ounces of silver. What makes the story distinctive is that the metal is already broken and above ground, and bench/pilot metallurgy has recovered ~94% of the silver into a single high-grade concentrate. For a reader: think of it as an option on turning a giant waste pile into a silver-led polymetallic resource — high potential leverage to silver, but still pre-economic-study and years from any production.
Lifecycle & sector: Materials — silver-led polymetallic developer (tailings/stockpile reprocessing). Scored on the pre-production / maiden-resource lens (asset scale & quality, metallurgy, runway, permitting, management), NOT on P/E, EBITDA or FCF, which are meaningless pre-revenue.
Classification correction this run: prior reports labelled the whole company ‘pre-resource / no compliant resource’. That is accurate for the flagship Quiulacocha but omitted the Excelsior stockpile (El Metalurgista, 100%-owned), which carries a compliant NI 43-101 inferred MRE of 42.9 Moz Ag + 437 kt Zn + 184 kt Pb (eff. Aug-2020, TR filed Mar-2021). The company is therefore at maiden-inferred-resource stage on a secondary asset, pre-resource on the flagship, and pre-economic-study on both. This is a label fix, not a signal-changing discovery — no economics were missed (none exist).
| Sub-signal | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Asset scale / optionality | Quiulacocha ~423 Moz AgEq historical target (non-compliant) + critical metals (Ga, In); Excelsior 42.9 Moz Ag compliant inferred. Genuinely large, above-ground. | 78 |
| Metallurgy / processing | Bench + continuous mini-pilot at SGS: ~94% Ag and >92.5% sulphide recovery into a single high-grade concentrate; two-concentrate flowsheet conceptual. | 75 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net cash ~C$23.4M, debt ~nil; ~2yr runway. Strong for the stage, but funds only exploration/definition, not development. | 68 |
| Resource definition stage | Flagship still pre-MRE (drilling 116 holes toward maiden MRE H2-2026); economic study (NPV/IRR) absent on both assets. | 45 |
| Jurisdiction / permitting / mgmt | Peru single-country risk on a legacy-liability site; environmental exploration permit + full Quiulacocha access + community deals secured. Execution credible but unproven at scale. | 52 |
Moat average ≈ 56, but the moat is latent — it only converts to real economics once a resource + study exist. The cost-advantage read is what lifts Quality above the base.
| Competitor / threat | Type | Share / capital trajectory | Erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other silver / tailings-reprocessing juniors (Andean polymetallic + primary-silver developers) | Capital competition | Stable — CDPR’s DFC + Sprott backing is a relative edge in a tight junior-financing market | Capital rotates to peers that publish a compliant resource / PEA first |
| Silver price / macro tape | Driver substitution | Stabilising — SLV bounced off ~US$50 to ~US$54; the 8wk plunge has decelerated | A renewed weak silver tape compresses the whole developer complex regardless of asset quality |
| Self (execution / definition risk) | Internal | N/A | A delayed or low-grade maiden MRE is the real 'competitor' to the thesis |
Net effect on the moat: threat level moderate, share trajectory stable on capital access. Cost-advantage kept at 70 (metallurgy still to be proven at scale); competition does not move the pillar — the binding constraint is stage, not rivalry.
ROIC / capital allocation: N/A (pre-revenue, ROE −22%). Judged on drilling-to-resource discipline and non-dilutive funding capture — credible so far.
| Lens | Read |
|---|---|
| EV / market cap | Mkt cap ~C$385M; net cash ~C$23.4M → EV ~C$336M (~US$245M). |
| In-situ (compliant only) | Excelsior 42.9 Moz Ag inferred + 437 kt Zn + 184 kt Pb. EV/oz-Ag on the compliant resource alone is high — i.e. the market is paying mostly for the un-compliant Quiulacocha option. |
| P/Book | ~8.7× — meaningless for an asset-light explorer (book carries little of the resource value); noted, not scored. |
| FCF yield | Negative (−C$11.3M FCF) — pre-revenue; N/A as an anchor. |
| Analyst target | C$1.25 (single analyst) vs C$0.60 = +108% implied. Real coverage depth = 1 → low weight, treat as directional only. |
Implied-growth read (narrative): with no NPV, the market price is effectively an option premium on Quiulacocha reaching a compliant, economic resource. At ~C$336M EV you are paying an option, not a discounted stream — the disciplined read is ‘fully valued on what is proven, with the upside un-priced but un-anchored’.
Primary driver: the silver price (with zinc/lead by-products). CDPR is a geared, pre-revenue bet on the direction of silver — the metal sets the value of a future concentrate and the market’s appetite for the whole silver-developer complex.
| Horizon | Read (Step 2b price-TREND overlay) | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | SLV spiked to ~US$105 (late Jan), then a long unwind to ~US$50 (mid-Jul). Violent, but off an extreme. | Neutral |
| Current / short (50%) | SLV ~US$53.95 (3 Aug), below a falling 50-DMA (~US$56.4), but stabilising: bounced off ~US$50 (15 Jul); 4wk ≈ −0.9%, 8wk ≈ −8.6% — decelerated sharply from the −26% 8wk plunge at the last report. | Neutral (was Headwind) |
| Forward / medium-long (25%) | Macro report (30 Jul) rates silver short O / medium SO / long SO; structural deficit + monetary-hedge case intact. | Tailwind |
Driver score 56 — Neutral. Per-horizon: short Neutral (a live-but-decelerating downtrend; SLV still under a falling 50-DMA removes any short-term amplification), medium/long Tailwind-leaning on the structural case. Below the ≥65 line, so not eligible to amplify — and moot here since every base signal is HOLD. The base BUY/HOLD/SELL is unchanged by the driver.
The 30 Jul macro report rates silver short O / medium SO / long SO in a 'stagflation-lite' regime where precious metals are favoured — a mild Tailwind for a silver developer (up from the prior U/N/O Neutral read). Pressure = Tailwind, but because every base signal is HOLD, it cannot amplify (HOLD never amplifies) and the driver (56) is below the ≥65 co-condition anyway. The armed 'S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind' tail does NOT apply — CDPR is a Peru silver micro-cap, not in that cohort, so no systemic-tail inheritance.
Source: sector-map (silver asset-class proxy; explicit Materials sector signal absent) · Macro report 2026-07-30
| Sub-signal | Read |
|---|---|
| Price vs MAs | C$0.60 at/just below 50-DMA (~C$0.61) and below 200-DMA (~C$0.66). Weakening-to-basing. |
| 52-week position | ~38% of the C$0.415-0.90 range — lower-middle; beaten down off the Jan/Mar highs, not at the lows. |
| Structure | Held the C$0.55-0.56 July swing low and turned up; today +7.1% to C$0.60 on ~1.0× average volume (not a confirmed breakout). |
| Relative strength | Tracking a stabilising silver complex; no independent leadership. Neutral. |
| Risk-reward / stop distance | Nearest logical stop ~C$0.52 (below the swing low) ≈ 1.5 ATR — moderate; entry is not at a high-conviction support-bounce yet. |
Sentiment / catalyst: single-analyst coverage (target C$1.25); no earnings (pre-revenue). The live catalyst is the maiden Quiulacocha MRE (H2-2026, undated) plus interim drill assays — event-driven, so short-term timing stays Neutral until the tape confirms.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 (rolling) | US CPI / PCE / FOMC path | Med | — | — | ⚠ Indirect | Sets the real-rate + USD backdrop for silver, CDPR’s driver |
| H2-2026 (undated) | Maiden Quiulacocha MRE | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | First compliant resource on the flagship — the key re-rating catalyst |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Macro report refresh | Silver O/SO/SO | — | Upgrade | Positive: mild Tailwind for the silver-developer complex |
No dated, high-impact event inside the 14-day window. The maiden Quiulacocha MRE (H2-2026) is the decisive catalyst but carries no fixed date, so it does not pull the next-update forward. Macro silver prints (CPI/PCE/FOMC) matter only indirectly, via the driver.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Weakening | Neutral | ~46 | Flat/neg | S: 0.55 R: 0.75 / 0.88 | None | 1.0x |
| Weekly | Downtrend → basing | Neutral | ~45 | Turning up | S: 0.55 R: 0.66 | None | 1.0x |
| Daily | Basing | Neutral | ~48 | Turning up | S: 0.56 R: 0.62 | None | 1.0x |
| Hourly | Up (day) | Bullish | ~60 | Positive | S: 0.57 R: 0.61 | Intraday pop | 1.1x |
| Confluence: Mixed / basing · MTF Score 45 | |||||||
Higher timeframes are still soft (below the 50/200-DMA) but the decline has flattened into a base at C$0.55-0.62; the daily has turned up and the report-day pop is intraday strength, not a confirmed higher-timeframe breakout. A daily close back above the ~C$0.61 50-DMA on above-average volume would be the first genuine trend signal. Intraday intervals (hourly/15-min) are proxied on a thin micro-cap; weight the monthly/weekly/daily read.
CDPR.V 6-month daily (C$). Basing at C$0.55-0.62 after the unwind off the Jan/Mar ~C$0.88 highs; nearest overhead is the ~C$0.61 50-DMA.
Maiden Quiulacocha MRE (H2-2026) confirms a large, compliant, silver-led resource AND silver re-rallies (SLV back above ~US$60); a path to a maiden PEA/NPV opens and the name re-rates toward the single-analyst C$1.25. Requires both the resource print and a friendly silver tape.
Maiden MRE lands broadly as expected, metallurgy holds at pilot scale, silver stays range-bound ~US$50-55 (SLV); gradual, optionality-driven re-rating off the current base — no NPV yet, so upside stays capped until an economic study.
Silver rolls over again (SLV retests ~US$46-48, re-arming the commodity bear) and/or the maiden MRE disappoints on grade-tonnage or slips, forcing a dilutive raise into a junior risk-off tape. Competitive/driver trigger: a weak silver complex compresses the whole developer group regardless of asset quality.
Forecast: Fundamental group is gated on an economic study (a P/NAV anchor) and cannot fire before a maiden Quiulacocha MRE + PEA — earliest 2027, so Unlikely near-term. Technical is the only reachable trigger: a daily reclaim of the ~C$0.61 50-DMA on above-average volume — plausible within 2-4 weeks IF silver holds ~US$52-54 (SLV), but Low confidence on thin liquidity and a still-falling 50-DMA. Catalyst is event-dependent on the undated maiden MRE (H2-2026). Net: no entry path realistically opens inside this update cycle — Conviction = Wait.
Forecast: Stop (C$0.52) is ~13% below spot and below the swing low — Unlikely in 4-6 weeks unless silver breaks down. The live risk trigger is a renewed silver decline; watch SLV ~US$50 then ~US$45.
Buying now means paying an option premium before the maiden MRE prints and before the tape has confirmed — no entry group is met, silver is still under a falling 50-DMA, and any development step needs fresh (dilutive) capital. What you own for it: a real, above-ground, high-recovery silver asset with large un-priced Quiulacocha optionality and net cash. Read: waiting for the 50-DMA reclaim (or the maiden MRE) materially improves the deal — acting now is paying for optionality with no near-term edge.
No exit rule is triggered at C$0.60 — the stop, thesis-invalidation and profit-target are all clear — so there is no mechanical reason to act. This is a hold/watch zone: you shield capital if silver rolls over or the MRE slips, at the cost of the optionality if the resource prints well.
{
"ticker": "CDPR.V",
"date": "2026-08-04",
"version": "v6",
"brand": "",
"company": "Cerro de Pasco Resources Inc.",
"currency": "CAD",
"exchange": "TSXV",
"exchange_ticker": "TSXV:CDPR",
"isin": "CA1568281051",
"api_ticker": "CDPR.V",
"finder_ticker": "CDPR",
"finder_exchange": "TSXV",
"analysis_status": "stopped",
"lifecycle_stage": "developer \u2014 maiden-inferred-resource (Excelsior, secondary) / pre-resource (Quiulacocha flagship) / pre-economic-study",
"sector": "Materials",
"gics_sector": "Materials",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"price_at_rating": 0.6,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"short_hold_reason": "full_hold",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"quality_score": 62,
"valuation_score": 45,
"timing_score": 48,
"driver_score": 56,
"moat_score": 56,
"driver_commodity_trend": "Silver (SLV) US$53.95 (3 Aug), stabilising after basing ~US$50 mid-Jul; 4wk \u2248 \u22120.9%, 8wk \u2248 \u22128.6%; still below a falling 50-DMA (~US$56.4) but the decline decelerated sharply from the \u221226% 8wk plunge at the last report. Short trend Neutral (was Headwind); medium/long structural Tailwind. Macro silver short O / medium SO / long SO (30 Jul).",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 56,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
"overall_confidence": 45,
"val_band": "na",
"warranted_multiple": null,
"actual_multiple": null,
"warranted_ratio": null,
"discount_rate_r": null,
"risk_free_10y": null,
"g_near": null,
"g_term": null,
"val_multiple_basis": "asset/optionality \u2014 no economic study, P/NAV & warranted-multiple anchor N/A",
"fcf_yield": null,
"implied_growth_rate": null,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": null,
"clean_pe": null,
"clean_peg": null,
"fair_value_est": 0.65,
"stop_loss": 0.52,
"target_price": 0.75,
"scenario_base_target": 0.75,
"scenario_bull_target": 1.1,
"scenario_bear_target": 0.4,
"scenario_probabilities": {
"bull": 28,
"base": 50,
"bear": 22
},
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Project Quantification (Quiulacocha pre-resource; Excelsior inferred-MRE only; no economic study)",
"Valuation Anchor (P/NAV N/A \u2014 no NPV)",
"Dilution (cash-burn, ~2yr runway)",
"Governance/Jurisdiction (Peru, legacy-liability site)",
"Liquidity (thin micro-cap)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"economic_study_status": "Excelsior stockpile (El Metalurgista, 100%): NI 43-101 INFERRED MRE FOUND \u2014 30.1 Mt @ 44 g/t Ag \u2192 42.9 Moz Ag + 437 kt Zn + 184 kt Pb (eff. 31 Aug 2020, TR filed 18 Mar 2021). Quiulacocha flagship: resource CONFIRMED ABSENT \u2014 116-hole drilling toward maiden MRE H2-2026; ~423 Moz AgEq is a non-compliant exploration target. Economic study (PEA/PFS/DFS/NPV): CONFIRMED ABSENT on BOTH assets (company site + SEDAR+ + dedicated queries). Anchor N/A \u2192 valuation on asset/optionality.",
"analyst_consensus_target": 1.25,
"analyst_target_high": 1.25,
"analyst_target_low": 1.25,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 108.3,
"analyst_coverage_count": 1,
"systemic_tail_inheritance": "none \u2014 not in the AI-concentration cohort (Peru silver micro-cap)",
"next_update_date": "2026-08-18",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (pre-economic-study developer; Quiulacocha maiden MRE H2-2026 undated, no impactful dated event in window)",
"prior_report": "calibration-CDPR.V-20260720-1930.json",
"prior_primary": "HOLD",
"changes_note": "HOLD held on all three horizons \u2192 stays Stopped (protected pick). Q 60\u219262, V 42\u219245, T 46\u219248, Driver 52\u219256, Econ 52\u219256 (pressure Neutral\u2192Tailwind on 30 Jul macro silver O/SO/SO). Silver short-trend Headwind\u2192Neutral. Classification correction: Excelsior compliant NI 43-101 inferred MRE (42.9 Moz Ag) recognised \u2014 prior company-level 'no resource' label was imprecise (true only for the flagship). No economic study anywhere \u2192 anchor still N/A."
}
HOLD held across all three horizons — stays Stopped (a protected Donatien Pick auto-Stopped on no-BUY, not removed). Modest de-risking since 20 Jul: silver short-trend stabilised (Headwind→Neutral), Economic Alignment upgraded to a mild Tailwind on the 30 Jul macro silver O/SO/SO, and the Excelsior compliant inferred MRE recognised (label correction). None of it clears the ≥65 quality/valuation bars, so the base matrix stays HOLD.