Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) WAIT
A wait at $93.19 on the short term — gold is correcting, so hold off on a fresh entry — but Newmont is a cheap, cash-gushing gold major whose medium call is BUY and whose long-term call is STRONG BUY.
Newmont is the world's largest gold producer. Gold is still historically high near four thousand dollars an ounce, but it has been correcting off its spring peak — which is why the short-term signal is wait even as the long-term case is strong.
Cheap, and gushing cash
Newmont mines gold at an all-in cost around 1,680 dollars an ounce against a spot price near 4,000 — a margin of almost 60 percent on every ounce. That is producing enormous free cash flow, which is funding buybacks and debt reduction. On clean earnings it trades around 12 times, and valuation scores 80 — genuinely attractive for the largest, best-diversified gold miner in the world. Quality scores 76. On the fundamentals this is cheap.
Gold's correction says wait
A gold miner is a geared bet on gold, so we read the metal's trend, not just its level. Gold is high in absolute terms, but it has been correcting — it sits below a falling 50-day average, down mid-teens percent from its spring peak. For the near term that is a headwind. So rather than a hold, we say wait: do not open a fresh position in the miner while the metal is still rolling over. Let the correction settle first.
The long-term case is a strong buy
Longer term, the case is a strong buy. Central-bank buying, de-dollarisation and the prospect of lower real interest rates are a durable structural bid for gold, and the largest low-cost producer is a leveraged, cash-generative way to own that theme. So the medium call is a buy and the long-term call is a strong buy. The near-term wait is simply about respecting the correction in the metal before committing new capital.
What could go wrong
The risk is the gold price, magnified by the miner's leverage. If gold keeps correcting toward the low end of its range, Newmont falls harder than the metal — the bear case is around 76 dollars, roughly 18 percent below today. Newmont also has a history of operational hiccups and write-downs, so execution matters. Against that: an enormous cost margin, a cheap valuation and a durable demand story give strong support — which is why the medium and long calls are buys and only the near-term entry says wait.
Risk vs Reward
Against the current US$93.19, the report frames a bull case at US$172 (+85%), a base case at US$134 (+44%) and a bear case at US$76 (-18%). See the full report for the probability weight behind each path.
The verdict
So: wait on the short term, a buy on the medium, and a strong buy on the long term. Newmont is a cheap, cash-gushing gold major with a durable structural tailwind. The only reason the short-term signal is wait rather than buy is that gold itself is correcting — let that settle, and this is a name to accumulate for the long run.
That's my read on Newmont. Financial Freedom. Together.
Read the full report on donatien.ca →
