Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, mining and selling roughly 5.3 million ounces of gold a year (2026 guidance) plus meaningful copper, silver, zinc and lead by-products from a portfolio of Tier-1 assets across the US, Canada, Australia, Africa and Latin America. Its core business is simple: pull ore from long-life mines, refine it, and sell the metal into the spot market — so its economics live and die on the gap between the gold price and its all-in sustaining cost (AISC). What sets Newmont apart is scale and asset quality: no single mine dominates the book, giving it the broadest, most diversified Tier-1 gold base in the industry, a bottom-half cost position (~$1,680/oz AISC for 2026), and a fortress balance sheet — net cash after a completed $4.5B non-core divestiture programme. For a reader, think of it as the blue-chip, low-leverage way to own the gold price — durability and cash generation over growth.
Lifecycle: Cash Cow. Newmont is a mature, cash-generative producer harvesting a diversified Tier-1 gold base, returning capital via dividend + an enlarged buyback rather than chasing growth. We score it on the cash-cow lens — FCF generation and yield, AISC margin, ROIC and balance-sheet strength — not on revenue growth. Q2 2026 (reported 23 Jul) confirmed the thesis: record free cash flow, gold by-product AISC $1,621/oz (below guide), and full-year guidance reaffirmed.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / margin trajectory | Q2 revenue $6.12B (+15.1% YoY) on higher realised gold, partly offset by lower volumes (2026 is a planned production trough). TTM net margin ~34%, EBITDA margin ~50% on real numbers. Margin expanding on price. | 80 |
| Cash generation | Record Q2 FCF; TTM FCF/share ~$8.3, FCF/EV yield ~9-10%, OCF margin ~50%. Cash conversion >100% of net income. | 88 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net cash (cash $9.0B vs debt $5.6B), D/E 0.15, interest coverage ~132×, current ratio 2.55, cash ~$8.45/sh. Fortress book after the $4.5B divestiture deleveraging. | 92 |
| Reserve life / AISC margin | Long-life Tier-1 assets; Q2 AISC $1,621, FY guide $1,680/oz vs gold ~$4,066 → ~59% cash margin. Production ~5.26M oz (2026 trough), rising thereafter. | 85 |
| ROIC & capital allocation | ROE ~26%, ROA ~16%, ROIC top-quartile vs peers; completed non-core divestitures ($4.5B), $6.0B buyback executed + a new $6.0B authorisation, share count falling ~4%/yr. Divestitures shrink the base — the one discipline caveat. | 78 |
Moat score ~53 — a gold miner's moat is its assets and cost position, not brand or lock-in. Newmont's edge is scale and diversification (the deepest Tier-1 base in the industry), which lowers single-asset risk but does not confer pricing power.
| Producer | 2026 AISC/oz | Position vs NEM |
|---|---|---|
| Newmont (NEM) | ~$1,680 | Largest scale (~5.26M oz), most diversified Tier-1 base; cost mid-pack. |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO) | ~$1,400–1,550 | Lowest-cost of the majors — higher-grade Canadian assets; the cost benchmark NEM trails, and the name winning the premium multiple. |
| Kinross (K.TO / KGC) | ~$1,730 | Slightly higher cost, smaller scale. |
| AngloGold Ashanti (AU) | ~$1,751 | Higher cost; a Donatien-tracked peer on the same gold tape. |
| Barrick (ABX.TO / B) | ~$1,760–1,950 | Highest cost of the group; NEM's clear cost advantage vs Barrick. |
Feeds the moat: NEM's Cost-Advantage sub-score (58) reflects being below Barrick/AngloGold/Kinross but above Agnico — a scale-driven mid-pack, not a bottom-quartile, cost edge. Share is stable; the competitive risk is Agnico's structurally lower cost curve (a relative-multiple threat), not share loss.
Warranted-multiple anchor (Materials / miner). Discount rate r = 4.55% (10Y UST, per the 20 Jul macro) + 4.5% ERP + 0.0% (Quality ≥65) = 9.05%. Disciplined growth g_near = min(0.75× ~5% consensus, 6% Materials cap) = 3.75%; g_term 3%. Two-stage warranted P/E ≈ 17.6×. Actual clean P/E ~12.0× → ratio 0.68× = Attractive band (≤0.80). Cross-check on the sector-primary EV/EBITDA: ~6.3× vs the 8× "rich" guardrail = 0.79× — also Attractive. Note: we recompute EV/EBITDA off real Q2 revenue (~$6.12B) — FMP's data feed carries a corrupted Q2 revenue of $3.45B that understates its TTM EBITDA; the ~6.3× figure uses the real ~$15B TTM EBITDA. Neither the ratio nor the guardrail is anywhere near Expensive; Gate 3 is clear.
Base-case gold deck (stated once, used consistently): the warranted valuation and the Base scenario both assume gold holds a disciplined ~$3,700/oz — below spot ($4,066) and well below Newmont's own $4,500/oz 2026 planning assumption. The AISC-margin benchmark above is scored against spot ($4,066); the valuation is anchored to the deck ($3,700). Two golds, two purposes, both explicit.
| Lens | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| FCF yield (FCF/EV) | ~9-10% (record Q2 FCF) — at/above the >8% "very attractive" line for a miner. | Attractive |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM, real) | ~6.3× vs 8× guardrail; below mid-cycle for a Tier-1 major. | Attractive |
| Clean P/E | ~12.0× (adjusted EPS; reported TTM ~$7.94 is only mildly noisy — Q2'26 reported $2.06 ≈ adjusted $2.10 with no one-off, Q4'25 depressed by a large tax). Warranted 17.6×. | Attractive |
| Forward P/E | ~8.8× (fwd EPS ~$10.6) — cheap for the scale leader. | Attractive |
| P/Book | 2.80× — the one full-looking metric; justified by ~26% ROE and gold leverage. | Fair |
| Own-history decile | Mid-range (decile ~3-4) — not a cyclical trough, not a peak. | Fair |
| Analyst consensus | $93.19 vs a recent post-Q2 cluster ~$135–140 (last-month avg $134.6, last-qtr $138.75, median $140, high $175); ~48% upside; 28 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell, FMP A−. (Range is wide — Yahoo's feed shows a low of $67, a reminder the whole call rides gold.) | Attractive |
Implied-growth read: at $93.19 on ~12× clean earnings the market implies near-zero real earnings growth; our disciplined estimate (3.75% near-term) is modestly positive — the price embeds less growth than the fundamentals support, i.e. the cheapness is real, not a value trap. The catch is that "earnings" here ride the gold price, so the discount widens if gold keeps sliding (see Drivers).
Primary driver: the gold price (secondary: real rates / USD, which drive gold). Newmont is a geared bet on the direction of gold, not just its height — so we read the tape before scoring.
Step 2b — commodity price-TREND overlay (GLD, through 23 Jul): spot ~$4,066/oz. GLD $371.90, ~16% below its mid-April peak ($443). Spot is ~4.7% below a FALLING 50-DMA (GLD ~$390, slope −11 over ten sessions); 8-week momentum −9.0%, 4-week +0.7% (stabilising off the mid-July $365 low), 2-week −1.4%. This is an intermediate downtrend that is basing — the level is high, the trend is soft but no longer accelerating down. We do not score a clean Strong Tailwind off a bullish structural narrative + a high spot level while the tape is below a falling 50-DMA.
| Horizon | Gold read | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Short (0–4w) | Below a falling 50-DMA, 8-wk momentum −9%; macro Gold short = N. The metal is a live risk, not amplified. (Driver ~44 — still a Headwind, though less severe than the 16 Jul read as the 4-wk momentum has turned flat-positive.) | Headwind — caps short, no amplification |
| Medium (6–12m) | Basing but no confirmed trend turn; macro Gold medium = O, but the driver score (60) is below the ≥65 amplification bar. Structural case not yet unambiguous on the tape. | Neutral — no amplification (base BUY stands) |
| Long (3–5y) | De-dollarisation + central-bank accumulation + fiscal-debasement bid; macro Gold long = O, XLB long = SO. | Tailwind — STRONG-BUY eligible |
Score composition: Historical (25%): strong multi-year uptrend, recently interrupted — ~65. Current level (50%): gold far above AISC — ~85 on level, but Step 2b docks it for the falling 50-DMA → effective ~55. Forward (25%): consensus constructive long-term, choppy near-term — ~60. Blended ~60 (Neutral) — but the honest signal is per horizon: short Headwind, medium Neutral, long Tailwind.
Regime: Stagflation-lite (energy-supply-shock driven, Iran/Hormuz), narrow contested lead. Materials XLB is N (short) / O (medium) / SO (long); Gold asset class N (short) / O (medium) / O (long). Real-money is accumulating gold (central banks / fiscal debasement) while fast-money took hawkish profits on the downtrend — the divergence resolves short-capped-on-tape, structural-bid-medium/long. Net: a genuine Tailwind at medium/long (Trend-Following a supported sector), neutral-to-soft short. The 29 Jul FOMC (rate path / real rates) is the main near-term swing for the gold bid — a hawkish hold firms USD + real rates (gold headwind); a dovish signal reasserts the metal.
Source: sector-map (XLB) + Gold asset-class · Macro report 2026-07-20
NEM's own tape is soft but stabilising. Price $93.19 sits below the 50-DMA ($100.67) and the 200-DMA ($104.08), with weekly and daily trends both down and a daily support-breakdown flag; MTF confluence is bearish. The monthly frame is still an uptrend (secular gold bull intact) — classic higher-TF-bull / lower-TF-pullback, a buy-the-dip setup only once price stops making lower lows.
The constructive tells: the stock made a marginally higher low ($88.75 on 16 Jul, $89.13 on 19 Jul) and bounced to $95.75 before easing to $93.19; the daily MACD histogram has turned positive (a nascent momentum improvement); RSI 45 is neutral (room to run). It did NOT crater on the 23 Jul earnings print despite the revenue miss — the beat on EPS/FCF held it. Relative strength: lagging — ~−18% vs SPY over three months, roughly in line with XLB. Risk-reward: nearest support $88.75 (~1.2 ATR below); a break there opens the $76 weekly level. That defined support is what makes a confirmation entry attractive if it holds.
Earnings gate CLEARED: Q2 printed 23 Jul (beat EPS/FCF, guidance reaffirmed) — the blackout is over, so timing confidence lifts to ~55% (from 40%). But price is still below the 50-DMA in a daily downtrend, so short-term stays WAIT — buy on confirmation (a reclaim of the 50-DMA on volume, or a confirmed higher low that holds $88.75).
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC decision (Warsh) | High | Hold 3.50–3.75% | Hold | ✅ Yes | Rate path drives real rates → gold; NEM is high-macro-sensitivity Materials — the scheduling trigger |
| 2026-07-30 | US Q2 GDP (advance) | High | ~2.0% ann. | — | ✅ Yes | Growth read feeds the stagflation-vs-soft-landing regime that sets the gold bid |
| 2026-07-31 | US Core PCE (Jun) | High | +0.2% MoM | — | ✅ Yes | The last clean disinflation print before gasoline re-accelerates; a soft print supports gold |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Newmont Q2 2026 earnings | Adj EPS $2.10 | $2.05 | Beat (+2.4%); rev $6.12B miss | Stock −1.6% on the print; record FCF, guidance reaffirmed |
The earnings catalyst has passed (23 Jul beat on EPS/FCF, revenue miss). The next cluster is macro and gold-driving: FOMC (29 Jul) then GDP (30 Jul) and Core PCE (31 Jul). These set the near-term real-rate / gold tape — which is why short-term is WAIT and the next update is scheduled the day after FOMC.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 57 | +, rising | S: $60 R: $135 | Resist. breakout | 0.6× |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 44 | −, falling | S: $92 R: $112 | None | 0.9× |
| Daily | Strong down ↓ | Bearish | 45 | −, turning up | S: $88.75 R: $112 | Support breakdown | 1.2× |
| Hourly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 44 | ~flat | S: $91.8 R: $96.9 | None | low |
| 15-min | Strong down ↓ | Neutral | 46 | ~flat | S: $92.5 R: $95.3 | None | low |
| Confluence: Bearish (higher-TF bull, lower-TF pullback basing) · MTF Score 42 | |||||||
The monthly gold-bull structure is intact, but the weekly and daily frames are in confirmed downtrends and the daily broke support — momentum is against a fresh long here, though the daily MACD histogram is turning up and price is basing on a marginally higher low. The tell to watch is a daily reclaim of the 50-DMA (~$101) on volume, or a confirmed higher low that holds $88.75 support; either flips timing from 'falling knife' to 'buy the dip.' Until then, the tape says patience.
NEM below its 50-DMA (~$101); support at $88.75. Post-earnings bounce off the mid-July low. Recent daily closes.
Gold turns back up decisively (Fed forced dovish at the 29 Jul FOMC, or a fresh CB-buying / de-dollar leg) and reclaims $4,500+. NEM's ~59% AISC margin and net-cash balance sheet give it high torque; the $6.0B buyback compounds per-share value. Re-rates toward the analyst high of $175 (+84%). Falsified never — this is the upside path.
Gold holds our disciplined ~$3,700–4,000 deck with the structural bid intact but no new leg. Newmont delivers ~5.26M oz at ~$1,680 AISC, generates ~9-10% FCF yield, and closes the gap to the recent analyst cluster (~$135–140, +44%) as buyback accretion and the discount-to-Tier-1-major narrow. Most probable.
The LIVE near-term risk: gold's correction extends — a hawkish FOMC (29 Jul) / firmer real rates + an Iran de-escalation bleed the safe-haven premium and gold breaks toward $3,000–3,200. As a geared producer NEM de-rates faster than the metal, losing the $88.75 support toward $76 (−18%). Not a distant tail — gold is already below a falling 50-DMA. Falsified if gold reclaims its 50-DMA / makes a higher high.
Forecast: Fundamental group is now blocked by ONE sub-condition only (the short-gold driver) — the earnings gate cleared on 23 Jul — so it flips to MET (→ a Half-Size starter) the moment gold steadies (short driver ≥50: a reclaim of the GLD 50-DMA, or a confirmed higher low in the metal). Plausibly within 1–3 weeks, catalyst-dependent on the 29–31 Jul FOMC/GDP/PCE cluster. Technical group needs either a 50-DMA reclaim (~$101, ~8% up — a few weeks) or, more reachably, a confirmed higher low that holds $88.75. Catalyst group has passed (negative reaction). Base case: a Half-Size Fundamental entry becomes available first, once gold turns; a fuller entry waits on a technical turn.
Forecast: Stop-Loss ($88): possible in the near term — support is only ~5% below and gold is soft; a break becomes likely on a hawkish FOMC or a gold breakdown. Watch $88.75 into 29–31 Jul. Thesis-Invalidation: unlikely in 4–6 weeks (needs gold under ~$3,200, ~21% down). Profit-Target ($140): not near — ~50% above and RSI 45.
Position sizing not computed — no allocation or portfolio role was specified for this refresh. The Conviction Ladder reads Wait: no entry group is fully met today (Fundamental is blocked only by the soft short-term gold driver, now its single remaining gate after the earnings blackout cleared), so the guidance is to wait for a path to open — either gold steadying (flips Fundamental to MET → a Half-Size starter) or a technical higher low that holds $88.75 — then scale in. Specify an allocation for a sized recommendation.
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"exchange": "NYSE",
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"api_ticker": "NEM",
"company": "Newmont Corporation",
"currency": "USD",
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"date": "2026-07-25",
"time": "1641",
"version": "v6",
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"section": "Gold Miners",
"price_at_rating": 93.19,
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"signal_short": "WAIT",
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"driver_short_score": 44,
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"driver_long_score": 72,
"driver_commodity_trend": "GLD 23 Jul $371.90; gold spot ~$4,066/oz; ~16% below the mid-April peak ($443 GLD); spot ~4.7% BELOW a FALLING 50-DMA (GLD SMA50 ~$390, slope -11 over ten sessions); 8wk momentum -9.0%, 4wk +0.7% (stabilising off the mid-July $365 low), 2wk -1.4%. Live intermediate downtrend, now basing. Short=Headwind (caps short driver, removes short amplification), Medium=Neutral (macro Gold-medium is O but the driver score 60 is below the 65 amplification bar), Long=Tailwind (CB buying / de-dollarisation / fiscal-debasement bid intact).",
"lifecycle_stage": "cash_cow",
"moat_score": 53,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin (Mining)",
"industry_benchmark_value": 59,
"industry_benchmark_score": 90,
"moat_score": 53,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 80,
"capital_allocation": 78,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 9.5,
"forward_pe": 8.8,
"ev_ebitda": 6.3,
"clean_pe": 12.0,
"implied_growth_rate": 0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 5,
"historical_valuation_decile": 3
},
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"risk_reward_score": 52,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -18.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -2.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 45,
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},
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 0,
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"val_multiple_basis": "clean/adjusted P/E (reported TTM diluted ~$7.94; Q2'26 reported $2.06 \u2248 adjusted $2.10 \u2014 NO material one-off distortion: FMP's +$1.9B 'other income' line is a data-feed artifact mirroring its corrupted Q2 revenue $3.45B, a reconciling plug NOT a divestiture gain; Q4'25 depressed by a large tax. Scored on adjusted. Base-case gold deck $3,700/oz; AISC margin scored vs spot $4,066. Cross-checked EV/EBITDA ~6.3x (recomputed off real Q2 revenue $6.12B, NOT FMP's corrupted $3.45B) vs 8x guardrail, forward P/E 8.8x, FCF yield ~9-10%)",
"base_case_gold_deck_usd_oz": 3700,
"spot_gold_usd_oz": 4066,
"aisc_usd_oz": 1680,
"discount_rate_r": 9.05,
"risk_free_10y": 4.55,
"g_near": 3.75,
"g_term": 3.0,
"warranted_ratio": 0.68,
"val_band": "attractive",
"clean_peg": 0.8,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "low-moderate",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 68,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map (XLB Materials short N / medium O / long SO) + Gold asset-class (short N / medium O / long O)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
"analyst_consensus_target": 138,
"analyst_target_high": 175,
"analyst_target_low": 120,
"analyst_target_median": 140,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 48.1,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 76,
"analyst_coverage_count": 37,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 1,
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"overall_confidence": 55,
"quality_confidence": 80,
"valuation_confidence": 84,
"timing_confidence": 55,
"driver_confidence": 60,
"economic_alignment_confidence": 70,
"fair_value_est": 134,
"stop_loss": 88,
"target_price": 138,
"scenario_bull": 172,
"scenario_base": 134,
"scenario_bear": 76,
"scenario_base_target": 134,
"scenario_bull_target": 172,
"scenario_bear_target": 76,
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
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"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
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"short_cap_reason": "Short base is a capped BUY (High Quality + Attractive Valuation + Neutral Timing), but both the Technical and Catalyst entry groups are unmet \u2014 price $93.19 is below the $100.67 50-DMA in a daily downtrend, and the 23 Jul earnings reaction was negative (\u22121.6% on the revenue miss), so the Catalyst path did not fire. No confirmed timing path; short stays WAIT \u2014 buy on confirmation (a 50-DMA reclaim on volume, or a confirmed higher low that holds $88.75, ideally with gold reclaiming its own 50-DMA).",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
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"next_update_date": "2026-07-30",
"next_update_basis": "FOMC (29 Jul, Warsh) +1 trading day \u2014 the rate-path / real-rates decision is the gold driver's regime event and can flip the near-term gold trend for this high-sensitivity Materials name in a WAIT short; Q2 GDP (30 Jul) + Core PCE (31 Jul) cluster right behind. Earlier than the +14d ceiling (8 Aug).",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-30",
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}
Post-earnings refresh. Q2 2026 (23 Jul) beat on adjusted EPS ($2.10 vs $2.05) with record free cash flow, AISC $1,621/oz below guide, and full-year guidance reaffirmed; revenue $6.12B missed on lower volumes and the stock eased ~1.6%. Signals are unchanged — Short WAIT (below the 50/200-DMA, gold below a falling 50-DMA; buy on confirmation), Medium BUY (cheap + quality; gold-medium driver 60 <65, no amplification), Long STRONG BUY (structural de-dollar bid + XLB long SO). The real deltas are the earnings-blackout gate clearing (caution→clear), timing confidence lifting (40→55), and overall confidence (42→55). Entry ladder stays Wait — Fundamental is now blocked by only the short-gold driver.