Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ:LUNR) HOLD
Intuitive Machines is the only commercial company to have landed on the Moon, and the business has turned up — record revenue, a growing backlog, a firmer balance sheet. Medium-term that is a BUY, long-term a STRONG BUY: accumulate for the cycle. But short-term it is a HOLD — the chart is still falling, so wait to add.
Re-presenting the Donatien Investment report on Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR), dated 20 July 2026, at US$13.83. Short-term HOLD; medium-term BUY; long-term STRONG BUY.
The business turned a corner
Intuitive Machines is a Houston space company and, so far, the only commercial operator to soft-land a craft on the Moon. It earns money from lunar landers, orbital and data services and space infrastructure, almost all of it anchored to the United States government's return-to-the-Moon programme. In the first quarter it posted record revenue of one hundred and eighty-six million dollars, sits on a backlog of about one-point-one billion, and completed a five-hundred-million-dollar raise that funds it toward self-funding by 2027 or 2028. It is still pre-profit, and reported earnings are distorted by warrant accounting, so read the operating trend — and that trend has clearly turned up.
Cheaper after a 70% crash
Here is the unusual part. While the shares fell about seventy per cent from their May peak, the backlog and the contract awards went up — the price dropped as the business improved. That fall was a sector-wide de-rating, triggered by the SpaceX listing draining capital from smaller space names, not by anything wrong at Intuitive Machines. On the forward guide the stock trades at roughly two-point-three times revenue, cheap for a company growing revenue at nearly ninety per cent a year, and about sixty-seven per cent below the forty-two-dollar analyst consensus. That washout is what earns the medium and long-term buy.
But the chart says wait
So why only hold in the short term? Because the chart has not turned. The daily trend is still down, momentum is negative, and relative strength is among the worst in the space group, down more than forty per cent in a month. The daily relative-strength index is at twenty-six, deeply oversold, and the intraday tape has bounced — but a bounce is not a trend change. Our discipline is simple: a short-term buy needs the tape to confirm, and it has not. So the short call is capped at hold, buy on confirmation, while the medium and long horizons are an accumulate-on-weakness buy. Scale in slowly; do not chase a falling knife.
What could go wrong
This is a speculative, pre-profit space stock, and the risks are real. The share count has more than doubled in about fifteen months, and more dilution is likely if the cash burn runs longer than planned — the company is funded only to 2027 or 2028. The next lunar mission, I-M-three, is a genuine binary event later this year that could move the stock more than twenty per cent in either direction. And the competition is intensifying: Firefly Aerospace and Astrobotic, now backed by Voyager, are chasing the same NASA awards. The bear case is a fall to nine dollars, about a third lower. Size this small.
Risk vs Reward
Weigh the two sides honestly. The base case sees the stock at twenty-seven dollars over twelve months, about ninety-five per cent higher, if the next mission goes acceptably and revenue confirms the billion-dollar guide — a fifty per cent probability. The bull case is forty-four dollars, more than triple today's price, if the mission succeeds and a short squeeze fires, at twenty-eight per cent. The bear case is nine dollars, about a third lower, if the mission fails or another raise is forced, at twenty-two per cent. The asymmetry is skewed to the upside, but the downside is binary and real.
The verdict
The verdict is a short-term hold, a medium-term buy and a long-term strong buy. Own Intuitive Machines for the cycle and accumulate on weakness — the business has turned up and the valuation is washed out. But in the short term, wait for the tape to confirm before adding; there is no reward in stepping in front of a downtrend and a binary mission. A hold now; accumulate for later.
Read the full report on donatien.ca →
