Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) WAIT
The world's largest gold miner is cheap and high-quality - but with gold falling and earnings days away, the short-term call is WAIT. Medium is BUY, long STRONG BUY.
Newmont at $94.81 on 10 July 2026. The biggest gold producer in the world, trading cheaply after a sharp June sell-off. The long-term case is strong and the valuation is attractive - but gold's price is falling and earnings land on the 23rd, so the honest short-term call is to WAIT for the event rather than pre-position.
Cheap, high-quality
Valuation scores 80 - very attractive - and Quality 75. Newmont is the largest gold miner in the world, with a diversified, low-cost asset base and a strengthened balance sheet after asset sales and buybacks. It sells off hard in June as gold rolled over, which is exactly why the valuation is now compelling: on enterprise value to cash flow it trades under six times. The business is in good shape; the timing is the issue.
Why WAIT short-term
Two things put the short-term call at WAIT. First, gold is falling - down about thirteen per cent from its peak and below a falling average - the same downtrend that caps every gold miner right now. Second, Newmont reports earnings on the 23rd of July, a binary event days away. With a soft tape and a known catalyst imminent, the disciplined move is to wait for the print rather than guess. Our next update is scheduled right after the inflation data on the 15th.
Medium BUY, long STRONG BUY
Step back from the noise and the setup is attractive. The medium-term signal is BUY and the long-term STRONG BUY: gold's structural bid from central-bank buying is intact, the equity is cheap, and Newmont is the quality name in the space. Note the medium call was trimmed from STRONG BUY to BUY this update, purely because the medium-term gold signal went neutral. Cheap plus quality plus a structural tailwind - once the near-term risks clear.
What could go wrong
Gold's downtrend is LIVE - the driver risk is now. Earnings on 23 Jul could gap the stock either way. Miners are geared - amplify gold's moves. Bear case $80 - about 16% below today.
Risk vs Reward
Against the current US$94.81, the report frames a bull case at US$175 (+85%), a base case at US$140 (+48%) and a bear case at US$80 (-16%). See the full report for the probability weight behind each path.
The verdict
The world's largest gold miner is cheap and high-quality - but with gold falling and earnings days away, the short-term call is WAIT. Medium is BUY, long STRONG BUY.
Read the full report on donatien.ca →
