Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, mining and selling roughly 5.3 million ounces of gold a year (2026 guidance) plus meaningful copper, silver, zinc and lead by-products from a portfolio of Tier-1 assets across the US, Canada, Australia, Africa and Latin America. Its core business is simple: pull ore from long-life mines, refine it, and sell the metal into the spot market — so its economics live and die on the gap between the gold price and its all-in sustaining cost (AISC). What sets Newmont apart is scale and asset quality: no single mine dominates the book, giving it the broadest, most diversified Tier-1 gold base in the industry, a bottom-half cost position (~$1,680/oz AISC for 2026), and a fortress balance sheet with net debt near zero. For a reader, think of it as the blue-chip, low-leverage way to own the gold price — durability and cash generation over growth.
Lifecycle: Cash Cow. Newmont is a mature, cash-generative producer harvesting a diversified Tier-1 gold base, returning capital via dividend + an expanded buyback rather than chasing growth. We score it on the cash-cow lens — FCF generation and yield, AISC margin, ROIC and balance-sheet strength — not on revenue growth.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / margin trajectory | TTM net margin 34.6%, EBITDA margin 69%; Q1'26 revenue $7.18B (record), operating income $4.36B. Margins expanding on a higher gold price. | 82 |
| Cash generation | FCF/share ~$11.3, FCF/EV yield ~12%, OCF margin 50%. Cash conversion >100% of net income. | 88 |
| Balance-sheet health | D/E 0.16, net debt ~zero, interest coverage ~68×, current ratio 2.44, cash $8.1/sh. | 90 |
| Reserve life / AISC margin | Long-life Tier-1 assets; AISC ~$1,680/oz vs gold ~$4,140 → ~59% cash margin. Production ~5.3M oz (2026). | 85 |
| ROIC & capital allocation | ROIC top-quartile vs peers; enhanced capital-return framework (dividend + increased repurchase authorisation), share count falling ~5%/yr. | 76 |
Moat score ~53 — a gold miner's moat is its assets and cost position, not brand or lock-in. Newmont's edge is scale and diversification (the deepest Tier-1 base in the industry), which lowers single-asset risk but does not confer pricing power.
| Producer | 2026 AISC/oz | Position vs NEM |
|---|---|---|
| Newmont (NEM) | ~$1,680 | Largest scale (~5.3M oz), most diversified Tier-1 base; cost mid-pack. |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO) | ~$1,400–1,550 | Lowest-cost of the majors — higher-grade Canadian assets; the cost benchmark NEM trails. |
| Kinross (K.TO / KGC) | ~$1,730 | Slightly higher cost, smaller scale. |
| AngloGold Ashanti (AU) | ~$1,751 | Higher cost; analysed on the same gold tape this run. |
| Barrick (ABX.TO / B) | ~$1,760–1,950 | Highest cost of the group; NEM's clear cost advantage vs Barrick. |
Feeds the moat: NEM's Cost-Advantage sub-score (58) reflects being below Barrick/AngloGold/Kinross but above Agnico — a scale-driven mid-pack, not a bottom-quartile, cost edge. Share is stable; the competitive risk is Agnico's structurally lower cost curve, not share loss.
Warranted-multiple anchor (Materials / miner). Discount rate r = 4.56% (10Y UST, 8 Jul) + 4.5% ERP + 0.0% (Quality ≥65) = 9.06%. Disciplined growth g_near = min(0.75× ~5% consensus, 6% Materials cap) = 3.75%; g_term 3%. Two-stage warranted P/E ≈ 17.6×. Actual clean P/E 12.2× → ratio 0.69× = Attractive band (≤0.80). Cross-check on the sector-primary EV/EBITDA: 5.8× vs the 8× “rich” guardrail = 0.72× — also Attractive. Neither the ratio nor the guardrail is anywhere near Expensive; Gate 3 is clear.
| Lens | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| FCF yield (FCF/EV) | ~12% — well above the >8% “very attractive” line for a miner. | Attractive |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 5.8× vs 8× guardrail; below mid-cycle for a Tier-1 major. | Attractive |
| Clean P/E | 12.2× (≈ reported — non-op income is negative, so no inflation to strip). Warranted 17.6×. | Attractive |
| P/Book | 2.95× (P/TBV ~3.2×) — the one full-looking metric; justified by ROE and gold leverage. | Fair |
| Own-history decile | Mid-range (decile ~4) — not a cyclical trough, not a peak. | Fair |
| Analyst consensus | $94.81 vs consensus $144 (median $140, high $175, low $120) — ~52% upside, 27 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell, FMP A−. | Attractive |
Implied-growth read: at $94.81 on 12.2× clean earnings the market is implying near-zero real earnings growth; our disciplined estimate (3.75% near-term) is modestly positive — the price embeds less growth than the fundamentals support, i.e. the cheapness is real, not a value trap. The catch is that “earnings” here ride the gold price, so the discount widens if gold keeps sliding (see Drivers).
Primary driver: the gold price (secondary: real rates / USD, which drive gold). Newmont is a geared bet on the direction of gold, not just its height — so we read the tape before scoring.
Step 2b — commodity price-TREND overlay (GLD, through 8 Jul): spot ~$4,140/oz. GLD $378.18, ~13% below its early-May peak ($434). Spot is below a falling 50-DMA (GLD ~$402); 4-week momentum −3.2%. It has bounced +3.4% over the last two weeks off the late-June low (GLD ~$365) and sits right on its 20-DMA — a stabilisation, not a resumed uptrend. This is an intermediate downtrend with a near-term bounce: the level is high, the trend is soft. (Same GLD read used for the AngloGold run this cycle.)
| Horizon | Gold read | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Short (0–4w) | Below a falling 50-DMA, −3% 4-wk momentum; macro Gold short = N. The metal must be respected as a live risk, not amplified. | Headwind — caps short, no amplification |
| Medium (6–12m) | Bounce off support but no confirmed trend turn; macro Gold medium = Neutral (N). The structural case is not unambiguous at this horizon. | Neutral — no amplification (base BUY stands) |
| Long (3–5y) | De-dollarisation + central-bank accumulation + fiscal-debasement bid; macro Gold long = O, XLB long = SO. | Tailwind — STRONG-BUY eligible |
Score composition: Historical (25%): strong multi-year uptrend, recently interrupted — ~65. Current level (50%): gold far above AISC — ~85 on level, but Step 2b docks it for the falling trend → effective ~55. Forward (25%): consensus constructive long-term, choppy near-term — ~60. Blended ~60 (Neutral) — but the honest signal is per horizon: short Headwind, medium Neutral, long Tailwind.
Regime: Higher-for-Longer / Stagflation-lite. Materials XLB is N (short) / O (medium) / SO (long); Gold asset class N/N/O. Real-money is accumulating gold (CB/fiscal) while fast-money sold the hawkish downtrend — the divergence resolves short-capped-on-tape, structural-bid-medium/long. Net: a genuine Tailwind at medium/long (Trend-Following a supported sector), neutral-to-soft short. A hawkish CPI surprise (14 Jul) or a firmer USD is the main near-term headwind to the gold bid.
Source: sector-map (XLB) + Gold asset-class · Macro report 2026-07-09
NEM's own tape is soft. Price $94.81 sits below the 50-DMA ($104.98) and the 200-DMA ($103.65), with weekly and daily trends both down and a daily support-breakdown flag. The monthly frame is still an uptrend (secular gold bull intact), but every lower timeframe has rolled over — classic higher-TF-bull / lower-TF-pullback, which is a buy-the-dip setup only once price stops making lower lows. It hasn't yet.
Relative strength: lagging — underperforming SPY (~−6% 3-mo) and roughly in line with XLB. 52-week range position ~50% ($55–$135 range). Risk-reward: nearest support $91.7–$92 (~1 ATR below); a break there opens the $76 weekly level. That tight support is the one constructive feature — a defined-risk entry if it holds.
Earnings gate: Q2 on 23 Jul (13 days) with a >5% historical move → timing confidence capped at ~42%. Short-term flagged WAIT for the print.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | CPI (Jun) | High | Core MoM +0.3% | +0.3% | ✅ Yes | Materials/gold: a hot core print firms USD + real rates → gold headwind |
| 2026-07-23 | Newmont Q2 earnings | High | EPS ~$2.17 | — | ✅ Yes | Binary event; >5% historical post-earnings move — the scheduling trigger |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC decision (29–30 Jul) | High | Hold (live hike risk) | Hold | ✅ Yes | Rate path drives gold; NEM is high-macro-sensitivity Materials |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 10Y UST | 4.56% | — | +8bp on the week | Mild headwind — higher real rates pressure gold |
Two high-impact events cluster before the next refresh: CPI (14 Jul) then NEM's own earnings (23 Jul), with FOMC (29–30 Jul) just beyond. CPI sets the near-term gold tape; earnings is the direct catalyst. This is why short-term is WAIT and the next update is scheduled the day after earnings.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 58 | +, rising | S: $60 R: $135 | Resist. breakout | 0.2× |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 44 | −, falling | S: $92 R: $112 | None | 0.6× |
| Daily | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 42 | −, flat | S: $91.7 R: $112 | Support breakdown | 0.7× |
| Hourly | Strong down ↓ | Bearish | 52 | ~flat | S: $91.2 R: $95.3 | None | low |
| 15-min | Recovering → | Neutral | 50 | ~flat | S: $93.5 R: $95.3 | None | low |
| Confluence: Bearish (higher-TF bull, lower-TF pullback) · MTF Score 44 | |||||||
The monthly gold-bull structure is intact, but the weekly and daily frames are in confirmed downtrends and the daily just broke support — momentum is against a new long here. The tell to watch is a daily reclaim of the 50-DMA (~$105) on volume, or a tested higher low off $91–$92 support; either would flip timing from 'falling knife' to 'buy the dip.' Until then, the tape says patience.
NEM below its 50-DMA (~$105); support at $91.7–$92. Illustrative recent closes.
Gold turns back up decisively (Fed forced dovish, or a fresh CB-buying/de-dollar leg) and reclaims $4,500+. NEM's ~59% AISC margin and near-zero leverage give it high torque; buyback compounds per-share value. Re-rates toward the analyst high of $175 (+85%).
Gold holds a high plateau (~$4,000–$4,300) with the structural bid intact but no new leg. Newmont delivers ~5.3M oz at ~$1,680 AISC, generates ~12% FCF yield, and closes the gap to consensus $140 (median, +48%) as the discount to a fortress-balance-sheet Tier-1 major narrows. Most probable.
The LIVE near-term risk: gold's correction extends — a hot CPI (14 Jul) / hawkish FOMC firms USD + real rates and gold breaks toward $3,600–$3,800. As a geared producer NEM de-rates faster than the metal, losing the $91.7 support toward $80 (−16%). Not a distant tail — gold is already below a falling 50-DMA. Falsified if gold reclaims its 50-DMA / makes a higher high.
Forecast: Fundamental group flips to MET the moment gold stabilises (driver ≥50) — catalyst-dependent on the CPI (14 Jul) / earnings (23 Jul) tape, plausibly within 1–3 weeks if gold holds its 20-DMA. Technical group needs either a 50-DMA reclaim (~$105, ~11% up — several weeks at best) or, more reachably, a confirmed higher low off $91–$92 (could form on any successful test of support). Catalyst group resolves 23 Jul on the earnings reaction. Base case: a Half-Size Fundamental entry becomes available first, once gold steadies; a fuller entry waits on a technical turn.
Forecast: Stop-Loss ($91): possible in the near term — support is only ~4% below and gold is soft; a break becomes likely on a hot CPI or a poor earnings reaction. Watch $91.7 closely into 14–23 Jul. Thesis-Invalidation: unlikely in 4–6 weeks (needs gold under ~$3,400, ~18% down). Profit-Target ($140): not near — ~48% above and RSI 42.
Position sizing not computed — no allocation or portfolio role was specified for this refresh. The Conviction Ladder reads Wait: no entry group is fully met today (Fundamental blocked only by the soft short-term gold driver), so the guidance is to wait for a path to open — either gold steadying (flips Fundamental to MET → a Half-Size starter) or a technical higher low off $91–$92 — then scale in. Specify an allocation for a sized recommendation.
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"analyst_target_upside_pct": 51.9,
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"analyst_bullish_pct": 75,
"analyst_coverage_count": 36,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
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"next_update_date": "2026-07-15",
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Clean refresh. The headline change is a medium-horizon downgrade STRONG BUY → BUY, driven not by the business (Quality flat, Valuation cheaper) but by the driver: macro Gold-medium is Neutral, and gold trades below a falling 50-DMA, so the medium horizon no longer qualifies for amplification. Long stays STRONG BUY on the structural de-dollar bid + XLB long SO; short stays WAIT on the weak tape + earnings gate.