| Metric | SOFI Value | Sector Median | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (FY2025) | +38% YoY | ~12-15% | 88 | $3.6B record revenue, well above fintech median. Accelerating from prior years. |
| 2026 Revenue Guidance | +30% ($4.66B) | ~10-15% | 82 | Above-consensus guidance. Q1 2026 at $1.04B (+35% YoY). |
| Net Income Margin (Q4 2025) | 17% | ~10-20% | 72 | $174M net income in Q4. First full year of profitability ($0.39 EPS). |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin (FY2025) | 29% | ~15-25% | 78 | $1.1B EBITDA (+58% YoY). Margin expanding rapidly. |
| Member Growth (Q4 2025) | +1M new members | n/a | 85 | Record quarterly member additions. Total members growing at scale. |
| Balance Sheet Health | D/E 0.17, net cash $3B | D/E 0.5-1.5 (banks) | 85 | Substantially deleveraged from D/E 0.31 in Q3. Very strong liquidity. |
| Free Cash Flow | Negative | Varies | 40 | Structural for growing bank (loan originations consume cash). Not a traditional FCF business yet. |
Pricing Power (55): Competitive fintech space limits aggressive repricing. Bank charter provides some NIM advantage over non-bank competitors. Network Effects (55): Cross-sell ecosystem (loans + banking + investing + credit card) creates mild engagement loops but not a true two-sided marketplace. Switching Costs (60): Direct deposit + multiple products = moderate friction. Not as sticky as enterprise SaaS but better than single-product fintechs. Cost Advantage (65): Bank charter enables lower-cost deposit funding vs non-bank lenders. This is a structural, durable advantage. Intangibles (50): Growing brand among millennials/Gen-Z. Bank charter is a regulatory barrier to entry. Limited patent moat.
| Sub-Signal | Value | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 5.66% | 45 | Below mature bank median (10-15%), but rapidly improving from negative ROE just 2 years ago. Trajectory matters more than level at this stage. |
| Capital Allocation | Reinvesting in growth | 60 | Disciplined growth reinvestment. No dividends (appropriate at this stage). Galileo/Technisys platform investments expanding TAM. |
| Management Skin in Game | CEO bought $1M Mar 2 | 55 | CEO Noto owns ~11.7M shares and bought 56K more at ~$17.88 in March. However, broader insider selling has been heavy (SBC-related, -$643M net over 2yr). |
| Multiple | SOFI Value | Peer / Sector Median | Historical Decile | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 26.4x | Credit Services: 8.5x / Fintech: ~20-27x | 4th (mid-low range) | 55 |
| PEG Ratio | 0.88 | 1.0-1.5 (typical) | — | 78 |
| EV/Revenue | 4.6x | SaaS: 8-12x / Banks: 2-3x | 5th | 65 |
| Price/Book | 3.01x | Banks: 1.0-1.5x | 4th | 50 |
At the current price of $15.85, with an enterprise value of approximately $16.4B (market cap ~$19.4B minus net cash ~$3B), the market is implying approximately 15-18% annual revenue growth over the next 5 years (assuming terminal margins of ~20% and a 10% discount rate).
However, SoFi is guiding for 30% revenue growth in 2026, and consensus analysts expect 20-25% growth over the medium term. The market is pricing in significantly LESS growth than both the company and analysts expect. This suggests the market is either: (a) skeptical about growth sustainability, or (b) pricing in macro/credit risk. Either way, the implied growth is conservative relative to demonstrated execution.
Score: 75/100 — Market expectations are pessimistic relative to consensus.
FCF Yield: N/A (negative FCF)
SoFi's negative free cash flow is structural for a bank in growth mode — loan originations consume capital that generates future NII. This is not the same as a tech company burning cash on operations. As the loan book seasons and growth moderates, FCF should turn positive. Weighted other valuation references more heavily to compensate.
| Source | Consensus | Median Target | Range | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street (31 analysts) | Hold (6 Buy, 11 Hold, 5 Sell) | $25.54 - $27.75 | $12.00 - $38.00 | +61% to +75% |
Note: Analyst targets may include stale estimates. The wide range ($12-$38) reflects high uncertainty around growth trajectory and macro sensitivity. Recency-weighted, the median is ~$25.5.
Estimated Fair Value: $18.00 - $21.00
Based on: Forward EPS $0.60 at 30-35x P/E (justified by 30% growth rate and PEG ~1.0). Current price of $15.85 represents 14-33% discount to estimated fair value.
Intraday data unavailable (Polygon free tier). Weights reallocated: Monthly 35%, Weekly 30%, Daily 35%.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Weakening | → Neutral | ~38 | -, falling | S: $14.93 R: $25.00 | None | — |
| Weekly | Downtrend | ↓ Bearish | ~30 | -, falling | S: $14.93 R: $19.00 | Breakdown | — |
| Daily | Strong Downtrend | ↓ Bearish | 33.6 | -1.11, hist +0.02 | S: $14.93 R: $16.89 | None | 0.9x |
| Confluence | Mostly Bearish — MTF Score: 20 | ||||||
The monthly chart is weakening after a strong 2024-2025 rally from the $5 lows to the $32 highs. Weekly and daily timeframes are firmly in downtrend territory with price well below all major moving averages (SMA20 $17.01, SMA50 $19.35, SMA200 $23.82). However, the daily RSI at 33.6 is approaching oversold territory, and the MACD histogram has turned slightly positive for the first time in weeks — the earliest hint of momentum exhaustion in the selloff. Key level: the $14.93 swing low is the last line of defense before new lows.
| Sub-Signal | Value | Score | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop Distance (ATR units) | 1.05 ATR to $14.93 support | 75 | Tight stop possible — favorable risk-reward entry zone |
| Proximity to Support | Within 6% of 52-week low | +15 bonus | Near major weekly/monthly support at $14.93 |
| RSI (14-day) | 33.6 | 55 | Approaching oversold (<30). Not yet triggering bounce signal. |
| MACD Histogram | +0.022 (turning positive) | 50 | Early bullish divergence. Histogram has been rising for 3 days. |
| Volume / OBV | OBV declining | 30 | Persistent distribution. No accumulation signal yet. |
| Benchmark | 1-Month Return | 3-Month Return | SOFI vs |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI | -13.8% | -42.3% | — |
| SPY (S&P 500) | -4.5% | -4.0% | Underperforming by -9.3pp (1M), -38.3pp (3M) |
| KRE (Regional Banks) | -2.6% | +1.2% | Underperforming by -11.2pp (1M), -43.5pp (3M) |
52-week range position: 5.2% (near the absolute bottom). Relative strength score: 5/100 — SOFI is severely underperforming both the broad market and its financial sector peers on every timeframe.
| Indicator | Value | Assessment | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% (from 4.33% a year ago) | Cutting cycle — favorable for fintech/lending | 80 |
| VIX | 24.54 | Elevated — risk-off mood but not extreme | 40 |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | +0.51% | Normal, positive — healthy for banks | 70 |
| Sector Rotation | KRE +1.2% YTD, SOFI -42.3% | Banks in favor, SOFI lagging its own sector | 35 |
Macro average: 56/100. The rate-cutting cycle is a clear tailwind for SoFi's lending business, but elevated VIX and SOFI's severe underperformance relative to its own sector suggest company-specific or sentiment-driven selling rather than pure macro pressure.
| Signal | Data | Recency | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus | Hold (6 Buy / 11 Hold / 5 Sell) | Current | 50 |
| CEO Insider Buying | $1M purchase on Mar 2, 2026 at ~$17.88 | 34 days (0.8x weight) | 65 |
| News Tone | Limited SOFI-specific coverage in last 14 days | — | 50 |
Sentiment average: 55/100. Mixed. The CEO buying stock during the selloff is a positive signal (skin in the game at lower prices), but the Hold consensus and thin recent news coverage suggest the street is waiting for the Q1 earnings catalyst to reassess.
| Event | Date | Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠ Q1 2026 Earnings | April 29, 2026 | HIGH | 24 days away. Q1 guidance: $1.04B revenue (+35% YoY). Historical post-earnings moves: 5-15%. |
| FOMC Rate Decision | May 6-7, 2026 (expected) | MEDIUM | Rate-sensitive stock. Market expecting hold or cut. |
Catalyst clustering score: 60/100 (moderate — one clear catalyst within 30 days). The April 29 earnings report is the primary catalyst. SoFi has a pattern of beating estimates (Q4 2025 beat on both revenue and EPS), which could serve as a positive catalyst if the trend continues.
Note: FMP economic calendar API key expired. Events sourced from FRED data and web search.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 | CPI (YoY) | High | ~2.7% | 2.8% | Yes | Inflation trend affects Fed rate path → directly impacts SOFI's NIM |
| Apr 15 | Retail Sales (MoM) | Medium | — | — | Medium | Consumer spending signal for SOFI's lending and banking products |
| Apr 29 | SOFI Q1 Earnings | HIGH | $1.04B rev | $1.01B (Q4) | Yes | Company-specific catalyst. Guidance update will reset sentiment. |
| May 2 | Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) | High | — | — | Yes | Employment health → consumer credit quality → SOFI loan performance |
| May 6-7 | FOMC Rate Decision | High | Hold/Cut | Hold (3.64%) | Yes | Directly impacts SOFI's funding costs and NIM outlook |
Two high-impact events within the next 30 days are directly relevant to SOFI: the April CPI report (which could influence Fed rate path expectations) and SOFI's own Q1 earnings on April 29. The May FOMC meeting follows shortly after. This creates a concentrated catalyst window — consider sizing smaller or staging entries around these events.
SoFi is a fintech bank — its economics are driven primarily by the interest rate environment (which determines net interest margin on its loan book and deposits) and secondarily by consumer credit health (which determines loan performance and origination volume).
Neutral (high end) — No pillar adjustment applied
| Horizon | Assessment | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical (12-24 mo) | Fed cut from 4.33% to 3.64%. NIM expanding. Consumer credit stable but delinquencies rising modestly. | 70 | 25% |
| Current State | Fed on hold at 3.64%. Yield curve positive (+0.51%). Personal loan delinquencies at 3.99% (up from 3.57% YoY). Newer loan vintages performing better. | 60 | 50% |
| Forward Outlook | Market expects further rate cuts in 2026. Consumer credit expected to stabilize. Fintech market share still growing (42% of personal loans). | 65 | 25% |
| Pillar | Pre-Adjustment | Driver Adjustment | Post-Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 69 | +0 (Neutral) | 69 |
| Valuation Attractiveness | 67 | +0 (Neutral) | 67 |
| Entry/Exit Timing | 47 | +0 (Neutral) | 47 |
The rate environment is net positive for SoFi (cutting cycle, positive yield curve), but rising consumer credit delinquencies provide an offset. The driver sits at the top of the "Neutral" band — close to becoming a tailwind but not there yet. If the Fed resumes cutting and delinquencies stabilize, this driver would shift to Tailwind territory and boost all three pillars.
Q1 2026 earnings beat + raised guidance confirms 30%+ growth trajectory. Fed cuts again in summer, expanding NIM. Consumer credit stabilizes. The market re-rates SOFI toward its median analyst target of ~$25.5 as growth proves durable. The bank charter advantage becomes more apparent as non-bank fintechs struggle with funding costs.
Consumer credit deteriorates further — personal loan delinquencies spike above 5%. SoFi's loan quality comes under scrutiny. Growth decelerates below 20% as macro headwinds hit lending volumes. Share dilution from SBC continues to erode per-share value. The stock de-rates to 15-20x forward earnings, implying $9-12.
What would change the signal: If Q1 earnings on April 29 beat estimates AND the company raises full-year guidance above $4.66B, the Timing pillar could shift from Neutral to Improving as sentiment resets — changing the medium-term signal from BUY to STRONG BUY. Conversely, a miss or guidance cut would trigger a HOLD downgrade across all horizons.
| Level | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Fair Value (low) | $18.00 | 30x forward P/E on $0.60 EPS |
| Fair Value (high) | $21.00 | 35x forward P/E on $0.60 EPS |
| Stop-Loss | $14.50 | Below 52-week low ($14.93) minus 0.5 ATR |
| Support 1 | $14.93 | 52-week low / recent swing low |
| Support 2 | $16.48 | Prior swing low (March 16) |
| Resistance 1 | $16.89 | EMA20 (daily) |
| Resistance 2 | $19.35 | SMA50 (daily) |
| Resistance 3 | $23.82 | SMA200 (daily) |
| Analyst Median Target | $25.50 | 31-analyst consensus |
| Metric | SOFI | SPY (Benchmark) |
|---|---|---|
| ATR (14-day) | $0.90 (5.7% of price) | ~$8.50 (1.3% of price) |
| Annualized Volatility | ~60-65% | ~16-18% |
| Max Drawdown (6 mo) | -51.6% (from $32.73 high) | -7.9% |
| Approximate Beta | ~2.5x | 1.0x |
SOFI is approximately 2.5x more volatile than the S&P 500. A position in SOFI will experience daily swings of ~5-6% of position value. The stock has drawn down over 50% from its November 2025 high, demonstrating the extreme volatility inherent in high-beta growth fintechs.
Note 1 — Dilution Watch: Shares outstanding grew 13.7% YoY to 1.252B (Q4 2025). Much of this is from stock-based compensation and convertible note conversion. While not yet triggering the Dilution Gate (would need 2+ consecutive years >5%), this is a material concern for per-share value creation. Investors should monitor whether revenue and earnings growth outpace dilution.
Note 2 — Price Dislocation: SOFI's -42% YTD performance is striking given that KRE (regional banks) is +1.2% and the company beat Q4 estimates. This suggests the selloff is driven by: (a) multiple compression from elevated 2025 valuations (stock peaked at $32+), (b) broader growth-stock de-rating, and (c) potentially forced selling / momentum unwind. The magnitude of the dislocation relative to fundamentals is unusual.
Note 3 — Negative FCF is Structural: Traditional FCF analysis doesn't apply cleanly to a bank that's growing its loan book. Every loan originated consumes capital upfront but generates NII over its lifetime. SoFi's "negative FCF" is actually investment in future revenue streams. As growth moderates and the loan book seasons, FCF should turn meaningfully positive.