| Pillar | Previous | Current | Delta | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | 69 | 72 | +3 | FY2025 confirmed: revenue $3.6B (+38% YoY), EBITDA $1.1B (29% margin), net income $481M. Stronger than initially modelled. |
| Valuation | 67 | 70 | +3 | Price $16.27 vs $18-21 fair value range = 9% below bottom. Fwd P/E ~31x on improving trajectory. Better-than-prior discount calibration. |
| Entry/Exit Timing | 47 | 45 | -2 | MACD now Day 2/3 positive (improving) but price $16.27 still 2.8% below SMA20 ~$16.73. Gap narrowing; one more confirmation day needed. |
| Underlying Driver | 64 | 65 | +1 | Rate cut trajectory intact; Fed Funds 3.64% and declining supports lending demand and refi cycle longer-term. |
Sector Profile: Fintech / Digital Banking (Maturing Stage) — Metrics: Revenue growth, ROE, NIM, efficiency ratio, member/product growth, FCF, credit quality. Hybrid approach: blending tech growth metrics with banking profitability benchmarks.
| Sub-Signal | Raw Data | Sector Context | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Trajectory | FY 2025: +38% YoY → $3.6B Q4 2025: +40% YoY → $1.0B |
Fintech growth median: 15-25% | 82 | Strong for a maturing fintech crossing $3.5B. Growth accelerating in Q4. Fee-based revenue +53% YoY to $443M — reducing reliance on spread income. |
| Profitability | Net margin: 13% (FY2025) EBITDA margin: 29% (+7ppt YoY) Net income: $481M (+142% YoY) |
Mature fintech: 15-25% net margin | 72 | Profitability inflecting strongly — crossed $1B EBITDA for first time. Net margin expanding; approaching mature-fintech benchmarks. ROE estimated ~8.7% (below 12% target, but trajectory correct). |
| Cash Generation | EBITDA $1.1B (29% margin) FCF estimated $400-450M FY 2024 net income: $198M → FY2025 $481M (+143%) |
FCF margin target: >15% | 65 | EBITDA conversion strong, but full FCF harder to parse for bank (capital deployment in loans). Earnings trajectory exceptional (+143% YoY). Net income firmly positive and accelerating. |
| Balance Sheet / Credit Quality | Bank charter: FDIC insured CET1 ratio: est. ~11-12% (healthy) Focus on high-income borrowers |
CET1 >10% strong; NPL ratio key | 64 | Credit quality has been a concern (student/personal loan book exposed to macro). Targeting higher FICO borrowers. VIX 23.87 + tariff uncertainty = elevated credit watchlist. No distress signals, but monitoring warranted. |
| Member & Product Growth | Members: 13.7M (+35% YoY) Products: 20.2M (+37% YoY) Q4 product adds: 1.6M (record) |
Super-app: products/member ratio rising | 88 | Exceptional engagement. Products/member ratio growing = cross-sell flywheel working. 1M members added in Q4 alone. This is the core compounding engine of the SoFi story. |
| Component | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC / ROE (40%) | 55 | ROE ~8.7% (below 12% mature-fintech target, but rapidly improving from ~3% in 2024). ROIC trajectory is correct; timeline to 12%+ ROE = 2027-2028 per analyst models. Penalty for current sub-target ROE, but trending in right direction. |
| Capital Allocation (30%) | 68 | Reinvesting aggressively in Technology Platform segment (SoFi's B2B API business) which now generates high-margin recurring revenue. No dividends (reinvesting for growth). Share count growing modestly from SBC — acceptable at this growth stage. |
| Management Quality (30%) | 72 | CEO Anthony Noto (ex-Twitter, Goldman Sachs) has rebuilt SoFi around profitability discipline. Q4 EPS $0.13 — 4th consecutive profitable quarter. Guidance credible: Q1 2026 EPS $0.12. Management track record improving markedly. |
| Multiple | Current | Sector Median | Context | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | 41.7x ($16.27 / $0.39 EPS) | Fintech growth: 30-60x | At 38% revenue growth, PEG = 1.1x — fairly valued. Was 200x+ pre-profitability. | 62 |
| Forward P/E | ~31.3x (Q1 guidance $0.12/q annualised → ~$0.52) | Fintech maturing: 25-40x fwd | Re-rating potential to 40x+ if growth trajectory holds. PEG fwd = 0.82x (attractive). | 72 |
| Price vs. Fair Value | $16.27 vs. $18-21 range (watchlist) | 9% below range bottom | Intrinsic value range $18-21 reflects DCF at 25-30% growth assumption. Currently trading below even the conservative case. | 75 |
| Price vs. Analyst Consensus | $16.27 vs. ~$19.20 consensus | 18% discount to mean target | Wide target range ($3 to $37). Consensus HOLD; 35% of analysts are Buy/Strong Buy. Target set on Apr 6 at $25.91 by one source — bullish outlier. | 70 |
At $16.27, the market is implying approximately 20-25% annual revenue growth over 5 years (10% WACC, 18% terminal FCF margin).
Company delivered 38% growth in FY2025 and is guiding to continued strong expansion. The discount-to-implied-growth ratio supports the BUY case for medium/long horizons. Key risk: credit cycle deterioration from tariff-driven slowdown.
| Indicator | Value | Signal | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | ~37-40 (Apr 6 est.) Apr 2 actual: 33.63 |
NEUTRAL — Recovering | 58 | Above oversold (30) but not yet in bullish zone. Recovering from 22.5 low on Mar 27. Momentum improving. |
| MACD Histogram | +0.022 (Apr 2, Day 1 positive) Est. +0.04-0.08 (Apr 6, Day 2) |
BULLISH — Day 2/3 | 62 | Watchlist rule requires 3 consecutive positive histogram bars for technical entry confirmation. Day 2 of 3 today. One more day needed (Apr 7). |
| Price vs SMA20 | $16.27 vs est. ~$16.73 SMA20 Gap: -2.8% |
NOT MET | 35 | Entry requires price ≥ SMA20. Gap has narrowed significantly (was 7% one week ago, now 2.8%). SMA20 declining ~$0.15/day; approaching from above as price recovers. |
| Price vs SMA50 | $16.27 vs ~$19.12 SMA50 Gap: -15% |
BEARISH | 25 | Well below SMA50 — medium-term downtrend intact. SMA50 at ~$19.12 (Apr 2: $19.35, declining). No golden cross in sight near-term. |
| Price Action / Structure | Low $14.93 (Mar 29) → $16.27 today Recovery: +8.9% |
FORMING BASE | 55 | Potential capitulation low at $14.93 (Apr 2 intraday). Only $0.43 above stop loss $14.50. Price closing above $16 is a constructive sign. Need volume confirmation. |
| Volume / OBV | OBV: -995.3M (Apr 2) Today vol: 42.6M (below prev 53.2M) |
BEARISH | 28 | OBV deeply negative — sustained distribution. Today's recovery (+2.3%) on lower volume than prior session = not yet a conviction reversal. Volume needs to pick up on up days. |
| Stop-Loss Buffer | $16.27 - $14.50 stop = $1.77 (10.9%) | MODERATE | 55 | 10.9% buffer is adequate for a volatile stock in downtrend. Note: Apr 2 intraday low $14.93 was only $0.43 above stop — stop was nearly triggered. Risk is real. |
| Driver Signal | Current Reading | Direction | Impact on SOFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% (cutting cycle) | ↓ Positive | Declining rates stimulate loan demand (refi, personal loans). Short-term NIM compression offset by volume growth. Net positive 6-12 months out. |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.35% | → Neutral | Mortgage portfolio manageable. Yield curve normal (51bp spread) = bank economics healthy. |
| Consumer Confidence | VIX 23.87 (elevated) | ↑ Caution | Tariff uncertainty → consumer anxiety → potential slowdown in loan demand and rise in delinquencies. Key credit quality watch factor. |
| Unemployment | ~4.1% (low) | ↓ Positive | Low unemployment = good loan performance, SoFi's target borrowers (high-income) especially insulated. |
| ↑ | Business Quality | +3 | Rate environment supports lending demand; consumer credit quality robust at current unemployment |
| ↑ | Valuation | +3 | Improving earnings trajectory from operational leverage; rate cycle supports multiple expansion |
| ↓ | Entry/Exit Timing | -2 | VIX elevated; tariff uncertainty adds short-term volatility risk; earnings 23 days away |
Q1 2026 earnings beat Apr 29: EPS $0.14-0.16 vs $0.12 guide. Members cross 14M. Credit quality holds. Management raises FY2026 guidance.
Target: $21-24 (+29% to +47% from current) within 6 months. Re-rates to 40x forward P/E.
Trigger: MACD Day 3 positive + price cross SMA20 ~Apr 7-8. Then hold through earnings.
Earnings miss Apr 29: Credit provisions rise on tariff-driven consumer stress. EPS $0.08 or below. Members miss. Macro deterioration hits loan origination.
Target: $13.50-14.50 (-11% to -17% from current). Stop at $14.50 is activated.
Defence: Stop-loss $14.50 limits downside to $1.77/share (10.9%) from current price.
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"timestamp": "2026-04-06-EOD",
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"fy2025_ebitda_margin_pct": 29,
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}