NASDAQ:DLO DLocal Limited

Three-Pillar Scorecard

Hard Gate & Do-Not-Buy Status

Pillar 1: Business Quality — 85/100

Sector Profile: Fintech / Digital Payments — Metrics: Revenue growth, gross margin, NRR, FCF conversion, ROIC, user/merchant expansion

Sub-Signal Scores

Competitive Moat Scorecard — 62/100

ROIC & Capital Allocation — 78/100

Pillar 2: Valuation Attractiveness — 80/100

Valuation Multiples vs References

FCF Yield — Universal Anchor

Reverse DCF / Implied Growth

Analyst Target Cross-Check

Pillar 3: Entry/Exit Timing — 62/100

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Monthly trend remains solidly bullish from the secular recovery off $7.61 lows, but weekly momentum is fading and daily/hourly timeframes have turned bearish — consistent with a short-term pullback within a larger uptrend. The stock bounced +13.1% off the March 17 low of $11.37 but has pulled back from $13.03. Key level to watch: daily support at $12.19 as a potential buy zone, and $14.00 as the breakout level that would confirm trend reversal.

Risk-Reward Assessment

Relative Strength

Macro Regime (Dynamic Weight: 15% — Medium Sensitivity)

Sentiment Layer (Weight: 18%)

Catalyst Layer (Weight: 17%)

Catalyst Clustering Score: 62/100 — Moderate density. One high-impact event (earnings) within 38 days. Multiple medium-impact catalysts spread across 2026. No chaotic clustering.

Economic Event Risk

DLocal has medium macro sensitivity as an EM fintech. The most relevant event is the FOMC decision on April 30 — continued dovish stance supports EM capital flows and growth stock valuations. CPI on April 10 is important as a leading indicator for the Fed's path. No events within 7 days requiring urgent caution.

Underlying Driver Analysis

Price Chart — 9 Months Daily

Scenario Summary

What would change the signal: If Q1 2026 earnings on May 14 show gross margin recovery above 36% AND TPV growth above 55%, timing would shift higher and all three horizon signals would strengthen. Conversely, if gross margins fall below 32% or guidance is cut, the signal would weaken to HOLD.

Entry/Exit Rules

Key Price Levels

Volatility Context

DLO's beta of 1.04 suggests market-like systematic risk, but the 120% 52-week range and 7% weekly volatility indicate significant idiosyncratic moves driven by earnings, EM sentiment, and FX dynamics.

Calibration Snapshot

{
  "ticker": "DLO",
  "date": "2026-04-06",
  "time": "06:47",
  "version": "v4",
  "user_context": {
    "horizon": "all_horizons",
    "allocation_pct": null,
    "portfolio_role": null
  },
  "price_at_rating": 12.86,
  "signal_short": "BUY",
  "signal_medium": "STRONG_BUY",
  "signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
  "primary_signal": "ALL_HORIZONS",
  "quality_score": 85,
  "quality_pre_adjustment": 80,
  "quality_detail": {
    "revenue_trajectory": 90,
    "profitability": 60,
    "cash_generation": 92,
    "balance_sheet": 95,
    "ndr": 95,
    "moat_score": 62,
    "moat_detail": {
      "pricing_power": 45,
      "network_effects": 60,
      "switching_costs": 70,
      "cost_advantage": 65,
      "intangible_assets": 70
    },
    "roic_score": 78,
    "roic_pct": 35,
    "capital_allocation": 75,
    "management_skin_in_game": 70
  },
  "valuation_score": 80,
  "valuation_pre_adjustment": 77,
  "valuation_detail": {
    "forward_pe": 13.7,
    "ev_revenue": 2.88,
    "pe_ttm": 20,
    "peg_ratio": 0.43,
    "fcf_yield": 6.1,
    "implied_growth_rate": 16.5,
    "consensus_growth_rate": 27,
    "historical_valuation_decile": 3,
    "analyst_median_target": 16.83,
    "analyst_high_target": 21.00,
    "analyst_low_target": 14.75
  },
  "timing_score": 62,
  "timing_pre_adjustment": 54,
  "timing_detail": {
    "mtf_confluence": 48,
    "risk_reward_score": 65,
    "relative_strength_vs_spy": -6.0,
    "relative_strength_vs_sector": -4.0,
    "catalyst_clustering_score": 62,
    "dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15,
    "macro_score": 55,
    "sentiment_score": 64,
    "catalyst_score": 62
  },
  "driver_score": 80,
  "driver_label": "Strong Tailwind",
  "driver_name": "EM Digital Payments Growth",
  "overall_confidence": 60,
  "fair_value_est": 16.83,
  "stop_loss": 11.15,
  "target_price": 21.00,
  "support_1": 12.19,
  "support_2": 11.37,
  "resistance_1": 14.00,
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "next_catalyst": "Q1 2026 Earnings - May 14, 2026",
  "next_check_date": "2026-05-06"
}