The pillars conflict in the same instructive way they did across the precious-metals complex this week: a top-decile business (arguably the highest-margin model in mining) riding a top-decile driver and a friendly economy, but at a premium price and after a sharp 4-day bounce into a live Fed meeting. That is why the three horizons diverge — Quality/driver/economy dominate the long horizon (STRONG BUY), the premium valuation and an extended, unconfirmed bounce keep the medium horizon a disciplined BUY/accumulate, and a high-impact FOMC one day out overrides the short horizon to WAIT.
Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fired. Leverage+rising-rates (no debt) ✓ · Valuation extreme (P/E not top-decile) ✓ · Negative earnings revisions (estimates rising with metals) ✓ · Insider selling spike (none observed) ✓ · Structural threat (none) ✓. Hard-gate state: CLEAR (✓).
Sector: Precious-metals streaming / royalty (gold ~55–60% of revenue, silver ~35%, plus palladium & cobalt). Lifecycle: Mature cash generator — it provides upfront capital to miners in exchange for the right to buy future production at a fixed low price (~US$450/oz gold-equivalent, ~US$4.50/oz silver, with inflation escalators). Profitable and free-cash-generative, with a built-in growth pipeline of 13 development-stage streams. Scored on streamer-appropriate metrics (cash margin, EBITDA margin, FCF, balance sheet), not on the optically huge but price-driven +92% YoY revenue.
| Sub-Signal | Value | Sector Benchmark | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash operating margin (benchmark) | ~88% (realized price − fixed cost) | >40% of price = exceptional | 96 | Buys gold at ~US$450 vs ~US$4,360 spot, silver at ~US$4.50 vs ~US$70 — a fixed-cost structure no producer can match. |
| Profitability vs peers | EBITDA 87.5% · op 71.8% · net 65.5% | Top of the entire mining sector | 93 | Margins structurally above producers (AEM ~72% EBITDA) because there is no operating-cost or capex inflation. |
| Cash generation | OCF ~US$2.3B TTM (~84% of sales) | FCF distorted by stream M&A — see below | 72 | Operating cash conversion elite; headline FCF (~US$1.0B) is depressed because cash is redeployed into new streams (growth). |
| Balance-sheet health | Net cash ~US$2.16B · D/E 0.08% · cur. 4.53× | Net cash = strongest tier | 97 | Effectively debt-free; interest coverage 446×. Best-in-class survivability and dry powder for new deals. |
| Portfolio breadth / diversification | 23 producing + 13 development streams | More assets = lower single-mine risk | 85 | A streamer's "reserve life" is portfolio breadth — operating risk sits with 30+ counterpart mines, not WPM. |
Moat average ≈ 70 — materially higher than a producer's, and the streamer's genuine edge. Its durable advantages are a structural fixed-cost moat (cost advantage 90), locked life-of-mine contracts (switching costs 78), and a compounding portfolio of intangible streaming agreements. Like any miner it cannot set the price of gold or silver, so pricing power is (correctly) neutral.
| Component (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC / returns (40%) | ROE 21.5%, ROA 14.0%; FMP ROE & ROA sub-scores both 5/5. Top-quartile and rising as metals lift realized prices against a fixed cost. | 84 |
| Capital-allocation discipline (30%) | The whole business is capital allocation — accretive new streams funded from cash flow + a debt-free balance sheet (recent additions in gold/copper/cobalt). Dividend tied to a % of trailing operating cash flow (payout ~17%) — conservative, self-funding, room to grow. | 82 |
| Management skin-in-the-game (30%) | Experienced, well-regarded team; negligible SBC dilution; long record of disciplined deal-making rather than chasing volume. New CEO (Hodaly) is a long-tenured internal promotion — continuity. | 72 |
FMP financial-health rating: B+ (3/5) — DCF 4, ROE 5, ROA 5, D/E 3, with the only drags being the valuation sub-scores (P/E 1, P/B 1). The independent rating confirms our high Quality read and previews the Valuation tension below — high quality, full price.
| Multiple | Current | Reference | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA (primary, streamer) | 23.3× | Streamers ~20–28×; producers ~8–12× | Mid-pack for a streamer but a steep premium to producers — the structural quality/optionality tax. |
| P/NAV (streamer) | ~2.0–2.3× (est.) | Streamers ~1.8–2.5× | In the normal streamer band; not stretched within its own peer set, but high vs the broader sector. |
| Forward P/E | ~22.8× | 2026E EPS ~US$5.39 / 2027E ~US$5.66 | Optically reasonable for the model — but the "E" rides peak metals; EPS growth flattens after 2028. |
| Trailing P/E / P/B | 32.3× / 6.3× | FMP P/E & P/B sub-scores 1/5 | Rich on trailing; the statistical-cheapness screens fail — typical for a high-quality streamer. |
| PEG (growth-adjusted) | ~0.43 | <1 = cheap relative to growth | EPS +128% YoY (metals + new streams) makes the multiple look cheap against near-term growth. |
| Cash yield (anchor) | OCF yield ~4.1% on EV | FCF yield ~1.7% is misleading — see note | Use OCF: headline FCF is depressed by cash deployed into new streams (growth), not weakness. |
At C$179.72 with a net-cash balance sheet and ~US$2.3B TTM operating cash flow, the market is roughly capitalising current cash generation at a high-single-digit discount rate plus modest ongoing stream growth — i.e. it is pricing in sustained near-record gold and silver alongside continued accretive deal-making. Consensus agrees in the near term: EPS is modelled at ~US$5.39 (2026E) → US$5.66 (2027E) → US$5.79 (2028E), then flattening to ~US$5.18 (2029–30E) as analysts assume metals normalise. So the forward-P/E "reasonableness" leans on peak earnings; on mid-cycle metals the multiple is full. That — not any balance-sheet concern — is why Valuation is Fair rather than Attractive despite the strong target support below.
| Metric | CAD (TSX:WPM, primary) | Upside vs C$179.72 | Cross-check (FMP, USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus / mean | C$263.03 | +46.4% | US$170 (+32.6% on US$128.24) |
| Median | C$255.52 | +42.2% | US$170 |
| High / Low | C$324.20 / C$224.86 | low still +25.1% | US$180 / US$160 |
| Coverage / rec. | 7 analysts (Yahoo) · "Strong Buy" (1.31) | FMP grades: 16 Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell → 80% bullish. | |
The standout, source-agnostic signal: every published target is above the current price — even the lowest (≈C$225, +25%). The two feeds disagree on magnitude — Yahoo's CAD set (mean C$263, 7 analysts) is more bullish and fresher than FMP's more conservative US$170 consensus — so we lead with "all targets above spot, ~30–46% upside depending on source" rather than the headline +46%, and apply a confidence haircut for the source spread and thin Yahoo coverage. Grades consensus (FMP) 16 Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell → 80% bullish (Buy with ~20% holds → solid). Recent actions are mostly maintains with two upgrades inside six months (UBS Neutral→Buy 3/27; RBC Sector Perform→Outperform 12/10) — sentiment steady-to-improving, not euphoric. FMP health rating B+, dragged only by the P/E (1) and P/B (1) valuation sub-scores — independently corroborating "high quality, full price."
| Horizon (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Gold ran from ~US$1,800 (2022) to ~US$4,360 (2026) and silver from ~US$22 to ~US$70 — a generational dual-metal bull; WPM net income roughly doubled YoY. | 95 |
| Current state (50%) | Spot gold ~US$4,360 / silver ~US$70 vs fixed contractual costs ~US$450 / ~US$4.50 → ~88–94% cash margin. As favourable as it gets, and structurally protected by the fixed cost base. | 93 |
| Forward outlook (25%) | Macro report rates GLD Strong Outperform across all horizons and SLV Outperform→Strong Outperform (de-dollar CB bid, stagflation hedge, Iran/Hormuz premium). Tempered by record price levels, silver's volatility, and a positive 2.15% real yield that could bite on a hawkish Fed. | 72 |
Driver score = 95·0.25 + 93·0.50 + 72·0.25 ≈ 87 → Strong Tailwind, amplification-eligible (≥65). It does not change the base BUY/HOLD/SELL or the three fundamental pillar scores — it only enables a base BUY to become STRONG BUY when the economy also pushes the same way (it does, §6). Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained gold break below ~US$2,000/oz (and silver below ~US$20) would compress — but not erase — WPM's fixed-cost margin and invalidate the premium multiple; the Severe-Driver-Collapse gate would only arm at metal prices near the contractual cost, which is fanciful. Both are far from spot. Confidence 70% (−10 for metals' inherent forward volatility, sharpened by silver; current state crystal-clear).
WPM is not a named line in the macro report's Economic Watchlist Forecast, so the read comes from the Driver-Sector Impact Matrix: WPM is Materials (XLB), and the report rates XLB Strong Outperform / Strong Outperform / Strong Outperform across Short/Medium/Long — the only sector that is SO on all three horizons — with capital flow IN / IN / IN. Both of WPM's metals line up: GLD is SO/SO/SO and SLV is O/SO/SO, so a gold+silver streamer is, if anything, even better aligned than a pure-gold name. The dominant regime is Stagflation (oil shock + hawkish Fed), in which precious metals are the report's highest-conviction multi-year beneficiaries (de-dollarisation, sovereign-debt/fiscal dominance, Iran/Hormuz, central-bank accumulation).
Anchoring on the Medium horizon, the pressure is a clear Tailwind; going long rides the economic trend (Trend-Following), conviction 82. The one near-term cross-current is the same one the Timing pillar flags: a hawkish Fed (Warsh's first FOMC, Jun 17) could lift real yields and produce a short, sharp metals pullback even as the structural tailwind persists. Amplification effect: the Tailwind did fire at the Long horizon — combined with the driver (87), it lifts the base BUY to STRONG BUY. At Medium the base is a borderline BUY and we deliberately decline the STRONG amplification on valuation grounds (premium streamer multiples + an extended, unconfirmed bounce); the Tailwind is noted but not applied. Source: sector-map; macro report 2026-06-13. Confidence 75%.
| Sub-signal (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | Monthly & weekly uptrend (monthly resistance breakout); daily "weakening" but has just reclaimed the 200-DMA (US$123.3 ≈ C$173) after a support breakdown; hourly uptrend. Tool confluence: "bullish." | 62 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | Price is ~+20% above the C$150 swing low after a 4-day surge; the logical stop (C$150) is ~3.5 daily ATR away (~C$8.6/day). Chasing here is unfavourable — much better to buy a pullback or the C$173 reclaim zone. | 48 |
| Macro overlay (20%, High sensitivity) | Materials in-favour (rotation IN); precious metals the regime's top trade; but a hawkish Fed is a near-term real-yield cross-current. | 68 |
| Sentiment (15%) | Grades mostly maintain with two upgrades inside 6mo (UBS→Buy, RBC→Outperform); Yahoo recommendation "Strong Buy" (1.31); news tone positive on the metals spike (Iran/Hormuz, silver to multi-decade highs). | 62 |
| Catalysts (15%) | No earnings within 14 days; no clustered company events. Calm — barring the macro FOMC overlay handled in §8. | 70 |
Relative strength & range: WPM has strongly outperformed SPY over 12 months on the metals bull, lagged during the recent pullback, and has now snapped back hard (52-week range position ~57%, i.e. mid-upper, −21% off the C$226.68 high). Position-risk: the C$149.99 swing low (Jun 10) is the line in the sand; price has reclaimed the ~C$173 200-DMA but the bounce is steep and unconfirmed above the C$185 (US$132) daily 50-DMA — a pullback toward C$165–173 would offer a far better entry than chasing C$180 into the Fed.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC rate decision + projections + presser (Warsh's first) | High | Hold 3.75% | 3.75% | ✅ Critical — metals are real-yield sensitive; macro flags ~25% hike risk & removal of easing language |
| 2026-06-17 | Retail Sales MoM (May) | High | +0.5% | +0.5% | ⚠️ Indirect — growth/risk read |
| 2026-06-25 | Core PCE MoM (May) | High | +0.2% | +0.2% | ✅ Inflation → Fed path → real yields → metals |
| 2026-06-30 | CB Consumer Confidence / JOLTs | High | — | 93.1 / 7.62M | ⚠️ Medium |
| 2026-07-01 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | High | 52.5 | 54.0 | ⚠️ Medium — materials demand read |
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment (Jun) | High | +70K / 4.5% | +172K / 4.3% | ✅ Labour softening → Fed path → metals |
Recent surprises (last 7 days): a US–Iran draft ceasefire opening the Strait of Hormuz drove gold and silver sharply higher (silver to multi-decade highs ~US$70); CPI YoY (May) ~4.2% (sticky); PPI hot. The tape is stagflationary — supportive of precious metals as an inflation/debasement hedge, but also fuel for a hawkish Fed and higher real yields that can pressure metals short-term. Override: because mining/materials is High-sensitivity and a high-impact FOMC is <3 trading days out, the short-term signal is set to WAIT-FOR-EVENT regardless of composite, and the report's next-update is pinned to FOMC +1 day (2026-06-18).
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | MACD | Key S/R (USD) | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | 62.7 | +, rising | R 165.8 | Resistance breakout | 0.68× |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | 50.3 | −, falling | S 113.4 · R 145.6 / 154.2 | Resistance breakout | 0.49× |
| Daily | Weakening → | 49.2 | −, flat | S 106.8 · MA200 123.3 / MA50 132.3 | Support breakdown | 1.53× |
| Hourly | Uptrend ↑ | 63.6 | +, fading | S 117.3 · R 129.2 | Resistance breakout | — |
| 15-min | Weakening → | 39.2 | flat/− | S 125.0 · R 127.7 | Resistance breakout | — |
| Confluence: bullish secular trend with a daily correction now reversing — weighted MTF score ≈ 62 (tool flag: "bullish," driven by the monthly breakout + 200-DMA reclaim). | ||||||
Monthly and weekly structures remain in uptrends and the monthly is at a resistance breakout, while the daily fell below its 50- and 200-day moving averages in the correction but has just reclaimed the 200-DMA (US$123.3 ≈ C$173) on the bounce — the signature of a correction repairing within a larger bull. Price surged off the C$150 (US$107-area) swing low on elevated daily volume (1.53×). Net read: a constructive picture, but the four-day +20% spike is unconfirmed above the C$185 (US$132) daily 50-DMA and event-exposed — better to buy a pullback into C$165–173 than to chase the rip.
Gold holds/extends above US$4,400 and silver above US$70; real yields ease on a dovish Fed pivot; a new accretive stream is announced. WPM retests the C$226.68 high and pushes to the analyst median (C$255.5). Driver + economy fire on all cylinders; the fixed-cost margin compounds.
Gold/silver range-bound at a high level; WPM holds the 200-DMA reclaim and re-rates toward fair value (~C$200) and into the lower analyst band as cash flow and stream additions compound. Steady accumulation on dips pays.
Hawkish Fed lifts real yields; risk-off USD strength triggers a 15–25% metals correction (silver, higher-beta, leads down). WPM retests/breaks the C$150 swing low and the premium multiple de-rates. Margins stay vast (no distress) — a valuation reset, not a solvency event.
Key levels (CAD): Stop C$150 · Support C$173 (200-DMA) / C$165 / C$150 (swing low) · Fair value ~C$200 · Resistance C$185 (50-DMA) / C$200 / C$227 (high) · Analyst low C$225 · mean C$263 · median C$256.
Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified for this batch analysis. Volatility context for when you do size: beta ~1.16 vs SPY (and high metals beta, amplified by the silver mix), daily ATR ~C$8.6 (~4.8% of price), and a demonstrated ~34% peak-to-trough drawdown in the last quarter. Catalyst clustering is calm (score ~70) apart from the FOMC overlay, so no clustering-based size cut applies. For medium/long horizons, a staggered 3-tranche entry — e.g. into a pullback at the C$165–173 200-DMA zone, on a daily reclaim of the C$185 50-DMA, and at a C$150 swing-low retest — would average in and avoid chasing the current rip into a live event.
calibration-WPM.TO-20260616-1703.json so the next run can compute deltas and the watchlist monitor can render the Hard-Gate / Entry / Exit cells without parsing HTML. This is the first report for WPM.TO — no prior calibration, so no "Changes Since Last Report" box.{
"ticker": "WPM.TO", "exchange_ticker": "TSX:WPM", "isin": "CA9628791027",
"company": "Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.", "date": "2026-06-16", "version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going", "finder_ticker": "WPM", "finder_exchange": "🇨🇦 TSX · 🇺🇸 NYSE",
"section": "Silver Miners", "lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"price_at_rating_cad": 179.72, "price_at_rating_usd": 128.24, "fx_cad_per_usd": 1.401,
"signal_short": "WAIT_FOR_EVENT", "signal_medium": "BUY", "signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"composite_short": 60, "composite_medium": 65, "composite_long": 71,
"quality_score": 85, "valuation_score": 53, "timing_score": 57,
"driver_score": 87, "driver_label": "Strong Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following", "economic_alignment_conviction": 82,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind", "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-13",
"quality_detail": {"industry_benchmark_name": "Cash Operating Margin per Ounce (streaming)", "industry_benchmark_value": 88,
"industry_benchmark_score": 96, "moat_score": 70, "roic_percentile_vs_peers": 84,
"capital_allocation": 82, "management_skin_in_game": 72, "fmp_rating": "B+", "fmp_overall_score": 3},
"valuation_detail": {"ocf_yield_ev": 4.1, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "forward_pe": 22.8, "trailing_pe": 32.3, "ev_ebitda": 23.3, "pb": 6.3, "peg": 0.43,
"analyst_consensus_target_cad": 263.03, "analyst_target_high_cad": 324.20, "analyst_target_low_cad": 224.86,
"analyst_consensus_target_usd_fmp": 170, "analyst_target_upside_pct": 46.4, "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy", "analyst_bullish_pct": 80,
"analyst_coverage_count": 7, "recent_upgrades_30d": 0, "recent_downgrades_30d": 0},
"timing_detail": {"mtf_confluence": 62, "risk_reward_score": 48, "catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.20, "rel_strength_52w_pct": 57},
"confidence": {"quality": 80, "valuation": 66, "timing": 65, "driver": 70, "economic": 75, "overall": 65},
"hard_gate_state": "clear", "gates_triggered": [], "gates_caution": [], "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"amplification": {"short": "overridden_WAIT (FOMC <3d)", "medium": "BUY (STRONG declined, premium valuation + extended bounce)", "long": "BUY->STRONG_BUY (driver 87 + Tailwind)"},
"fair_value_est_cad": 200, "stop_loss_cad": 150, "target_base_cad": 210, "target_bull_cad": 255, "target_bear_cad": 150,
"entry_criteria_total": 5, "entry_criteria_met": 2, "exit_criteria_total": 3, "exit_criteria_met": 0,
"focus_qualifies": false,
"next_update_date": "2026-06-18", "next_check_date": "2026-06-18",
"next_update_basis": "FOMC 2026-06-17 +1d (precious metals rate-sensitive, high-impact within 3-day window)"
}