Vicor designs and manufactures modular power components — high-density "brick" DC-DC converters and vertical-power-delivery modules that step electrical power down efficiently right at the point of use. Its core business is converting bulk 48V or 800V rack power into the low, high-current voltages that processors, GPUs and defence electronics demand, and it does so at a power density and efficiency that few rivals match. What sets Vicor apart is a deep, self-manufactured IP estate in factorised power architecture — an edge that an International Trade Commission exclusion order has now turned into a licensing business, forcing certain competitors and their contract manufacturers to license Vicor's 48V/vertical-power patents or stop importing infringing parts. For a reader, think of it as a small, US-based, vertically-integrated power-electronics specialist whose technology sits between the data-centre bus bar and the AI chip — high-margin, cyclical, and now collecting royalties on its own inventions.
Lifecycle: Growth (cyclical). Vicor is a profitable hardware/semiconductor-adjacent name at a sharp cyclical recovery inflection. It went through a genuine rough patch — Q2 2024 was loss-making (−$1.2M net; operating income just $0.2M) and Q1 2025 near-breakeven ($93.97M rev, operating income −$0.15M). It has since accelerated: revenue $94.0M → $141.0M → $110.4M → $107.3M → $113.0M across the last five quarters (Q2'25 was boosted by a licensing catch-up), with FY26 consensus ~$596M (+26% YoY) — note management's own guide is nearer ~$570M including royalties, so the Street sits a touch above the company; the gap is licensing-timing, not a demand disagreement. Score metrics against BOTH trough and peak, per the cyclical rule.
| Sub-signal | Value | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin (TTM) | 58.8% | Healthy for hardware; below the >60% fabless-semi “strong” line but rising off a ~50% trough. Licensing revenue carries ~100% margin and lifts the blend. | 75 |
| Operating margin (TTM, clean) | ~21% | Recovered from ~0% at the 2024 trough to ~21% — real operating leverage as volume returns. Semis “strong” is >30% (mid-cycle). | 72 |
| Cash generation | FCF ~$90M/yr, P/FCF 140× | Positive and growing, but capex is rising to fund the AI ramp; FCF yield thin (0.7%) purely a function of the rich price, not weak cash. | 62 |
| Balance sheet | Net cash ~$400M, D/E 0.01, current 14.3× | Fortress. No debt, ~$8.9/sh cash. Zero solvency risk through any downturn. | 95 |
| ROE / ROA (FMP) | ROE 4/5, ROA 5/5 | Top-tier capital efficiency; FMP overall rating B (3/5), dragged only by P/E 1/5 and P/B 1/5 — i.e. valuation, not quality. | 80 |
Moat average ≈ 67 — anchored by a genuinely strong, now-litigated IP estate, offset by a lack of scale/cost advantage.
ROIC is strongly positive and rising off the trough (net cash means invested capital is low; NOPAT recovering). Capital allocation is conservative-to-a-fault: no dividend, minimal buybacks, cash hoarded to self-fund the Andover “ChiP” fab and the AI ramp. Founder-CEO Patrizio Vinciarelli has meaningful ownership (alignment positive). Insider selling — stated loudly: in early July 2026 the CEO sold roughly $13.7M of stock across three days — ~$7.1M on 1 Jul, ~$6.38M on 2 Jul, and $211,680 on 6 Jul (the smallest slice; the earlier reports understated it by pointing only at that line). We assess Trigger 4 against the full ~$13.7M, not the headline sliver. The disposals were made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted 26 Feb 2026 (a pre-arranged, MNPI-insulating schedule), and after them Vinciarelli still directly holds ~8.35M shares — so the alignment stays intact and the trigger, on balance, still does not fire. It is nonetheless a real, sizeable sale into strength and we flag it as a live watch-item: a Trigger-4 concern would harden if further large, off-plan or accelerating sales follow the print.
Valuation is the whole story here, and it is the reason the signal is capped. Vicor is a great business at a demanding price. The reported P/E of ~90× already looks rich — and it understates the true multiple, because reported earnings are inflated (see the earnings-quality decomposition below).
Implied-growth read (narrative colour): at $272 the market is pricing roughly 30–35%+ sustained 5-yr earnings growth off a licensing-boosted base — well above our disciplined 15% estimate. The price embeds more growth than a cyclical, competitively-contested power-component core can durably support once the ~$300M ITC-settlement licensing windfall (booked through 2026) normalises.
| Lens | Reading | Weight | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warranted-multiple anchor | 46× vs 20.9× warranted = 2.2× → Expensive; above 28× guardrail | 40% | 18 |
| Sector median (Semis fwd P/E ~28–32×) | 89× reported / 46× FY27 both above median | 20% | 25 |
| Own-history decile | Near/at the top of its 5-yr multiple range after a ~5× run (off the ~$42 52-week low) — decile 9–10 | 15% | 15 |
| FCF yield | ~0.7% (P/FCF 140×) — <1% = very expensive | — | 10 |
| Analyst consensus target | $387.5 median (+42%); 6 Buy / 1 Hold. Momentum-driven, targets chasing the licensing print — note contrarian caution at extreme bullishness. | 15% | 78 |
Vicor's fortunes ride the AI & data-centre power-delivery capex cycle — the same GPU-power demand that lifts the whole 48V/vertical-power supply chain — with a secondary driver in its IP-licensing royalties. Both are currently favourable.
| Horizon | Assessment | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (12–24mo) | Demand inflected from a 2024 trough to a red-hot 2025–26; book-to-bill flipped >2.0 | Improving hard |
| Current state | 1-yr backlog +70% QoQ to $300.6M; Q2'26 guide raised to $142M (from $126M) on product + royalty income; solid AI-datacenter/EV/defence demand | Strong |
| Forward (6–12mo) | Hyperscaler AI capex still climbing; but licensing catch-up normalises through 2026 and MPWR/Infineon contest the mid-tier | Favourable, with a finite-windfall caveat |
Driver score 72 = Tailwind, amplification-eligible — but amplification is BLOCKED. A base BUY with a ≥65 tailwind and a Tailwind economy would normally amplify to STRONG BUY. Here the base signal is already HOLD (valuation ceiling), and HOLD never amplifies. Separately, the hard rule bars STRONG BUY for any name in the Full/Expensive valuation band regardless of driver strength. So the strong driver raises conviction in the business, not the signal. The driver does not change the three fundamental pillar scores.
Regime: Higher-for-Longer / Stagflation-lite. XLK (Technology) reads short Neutral / medium Outperform / long Outperform — supportive at the medium/long horizons that matter for a quality compounder, neutral near-term. Semis are medium macro-sensitivity. IMPORTANT: the macro report carries an ARMED systemic tail — “S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind.” VICR is a BORDERLINE cohort member: it is genuinely levered to the AI-capex trade (the ~5× run off the 52-week low, the backlog), so we carry the tail as a LIVE §11 Bear leg — but it is NOT the index-heavyweight-on-AI-stake-markups archetype the tail specifically targets, so it does not fire the Do-Not-Buy. Higher-for-longer rates (4.54% 10Y) also directly pressure a long-duration, high-multiple name via the discount rate.
Source: Macro-Economic report 2026-07-09 (sector map) · Macro report 2026-07-09
The multi-timeframe picture is a textbook higher-TF-uptrend / lower-TF-pullback — but with the near-term tape breaking down into a binary earnings event, which is exactly when not to chase. Monthly and weekly remain in powerful uptrends (a ~5× run off the 52-week low), yet the daily has turned weakening with a support breakdown, negative MACD, and RSI 43. The stock is $110 (−29%) below its $382.65 high.
Risk-reward is unfavourable for a fresh entry: price is extended off a huge run, stops are wide (daily ATR ~$30, ~11% of price), and there is no tested support bounce yet. The daily support cluster is $203–$246; a logical stop below the $203 swing low is >2.5 ATR away. Relative strength is enormous on 6–12mo but negative over the last month as the name pulled back. Gate 2 caps timing confidence at 40% — Q2 earnings 21 Jul is 9 days out and VICR moves double-digits on prints.
short_entry_confirmed = false: neither the Technical (daily below SMA20/50, MACD negative, no volume reclaim) nor Catalyst (no post-earnings confirmation — the print is ahead, not behind) entry group is met. This independently supports the short HOLD (“buy on confirmation”), on top of the valuation ceiling.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Vicor Q2 2026 Earnings | High | Rev ~$142M (guided) | Q1 $113.0M | ✅ Yes | Company-specific binary event; the single most important near-term catalyst — licensing durability + backlog conversion in focus |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC Rate Decision | Medium | Hold | Hold | ⚠️ Medium | Higher-for-longer rates set the discount rate on a long-duration, high-multiple name |
| 2026-08 | ISM Manufacturing / PMI | Low | — | — | ⚠️ Low | Semis demand signal, but AI-capex demand is idiosyncratic right now |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | AI backlog +70% to $300.6M, book-to-bill >2.0 (Q1 2026 print) | Beat | — | Positive | Positive: +11.2% on the day |
| 2026-06 | Q2 guide raised to $142M from $126M | Raise | $126M | Positive | Positive: product + royalty income |
One high-impact, company-specific binary event dominates the window: Q2 earnings on 21 Jul (9 days out). This both triggers Gate 2 (timing confidence capped) and anchors the next-update date (22 Jul, earnings +1 trading day). Do not position ahead of the print; let it clear.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Bullish ↑ | 65 | +, rising | S: $40.7 R: $164.8 | Resistance breakout | 0.5x |
| Weekly | Uptrend | Bullish ↑ | 58 | +, flattening | S: $126 R: $294 | Resistance breakout | 0.8x |
| Daily | Weakening | Bearish → | 43 | −, falling | S: $203–246 R: $340+ | Support breakdown | 0.4x |
| Hourly | Recovering | Neutral | 49 | −, flat | S: $247 R: $290 | — | low |
| 15-min | Downtrend | Bearish ↓ | 47 | flat | S: $265 R: $288 | Support breakdown | low |
| Confluence: Mixed / Transitioning — secular uptrend, near-term pullback · MTF Score 62 | |||||||
The big picture is unambiguously bullish — monthly and weekly are in strong, breakout uptrends after a ~5× run off the 52-week low. But the daily and intraday have rolled over into a support breakdown on light volume, consistent with a pullback within a larger uptrend, not (yet) a trend break. Blended MTF trend score ~62, but the risk-reward and the imminent earnings print pull the overall timing pillar down to 42. The level to watch is the $203–$246 daily support shelf; a tested higher-low bounce there (post-earnings) would be the reachable entry — chasing here, into the print and above support, is not.
VICR pulled back ~29% from its $382.65 high to $272; daily below a falling SMA50. Higher timeframes remain in a secular uptrend. Support shelf $203–$246.
The AI-power backlog ($300.6M, book-to-bill >2.0) converts cleanly, Q2 beats and guides up again, AND the ITC-driven licensing proves DURABLE (a standing ~100%-margin royalty base, not a one-off). The market keeps paying a premium multiple; price reclaims the highs. This requires both the demand cycle and the licensing stream to hold — the consensus $387.5 target sits here.
Demand and backlog stay strong through 2026, but the ~$300M licensing windfall normalises and the multiple compresses toward the mid-cycle range as the market re-anchors on the recurring core (46× → ~30–35× FY27). Earnings grow into the price rather than the price re-rating higher — a roughly flat-to-modestly-higher year with high volatility around the print. “Great business, wrong-ish price, growing into it.”
The armed systemic AI-capex de-rating leg fires: hyperscaler capex guidance softens, the licensing windfall rolls off without a durable follow-on, AND MPWR/Infineon accelerate mid-tier share gains. A high-beta (2.34), 46×-FY27 name mean-reverts toward ~25–30× on the recurring core — a 35–50% drawdown is a normal move for this multiple, not a tail. The 42→383→272 range shows the volatility is real. Falsification: breadth broadens (RSP catches SPY) and backlog keeps compounding.
Probability-weighted 12-month price target ≈ 0.25×$400 + 0.50×$300 + 0.25×$175 = ~$294 — about 8% ABOVE the current $272. Read it for what it is: this is a price-path blend (it reflects momentum and multiple persistence over the coming year), not intrinsic support. On the warranted-multiple anchor VICR is Expensive (~46× vs ~20.9× warranted = 2.2×; Gate 3 fired, intrinsic fair value ≈ $125 — well below spot). So the scenario blend sitting modestly above spot does not make the name fairly valued — the HOLD rests on that valuation ceiling plus the imminent 21 Jul earnings event. The skew is symmetric-to-slightly-negative: the upside needs two things to go right (demand AND durable licensing), the downside needs only one to go wrong on a rich multiple. Above intrinsic value, into a binary print — the arithmetic and the anchor both say HOLD.
Forecast: All three entry groups UNMET → Conviction = WAIT (no entry edge now). The reachable path is the Technical group post-earnings: a tested higher-low bounce off the $203–$246 daily support shelf, OR a daily reclaim of the $290 SMA50 on >1.5× volume — forecast 2–6 weeks and CATALYST-DEPENDENT on the 21 Jul print. The Fundamental group will not open without either a deep pullback toward the ~$125 warranted range OR a durable-licensing re-rating of fair value. Confidence: Moderate — the earnings print is the fork; a beat-and-hold-above-support flips Technical, a miss opens Fundamental.
Forecast: No exit trigger live (this is a HOLD, not an owned-position exit). For a holder: the stop at $203 is ~25% below spot and below the support shelf — a breach would require a bad print or the AI-capex de-rating leg firing; watch the 21 Jul earnings as the nearest trigger for both the stop and thesis-invalidation lines.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
{
"ticker": "VICR",
"company": "Vicor Corporation",
"currency": "USD",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:VICR",
"isin": "US9258151029",
"api_ticker": "VICR",
"date": "2026-07-12",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "donatien-pick",
"lifecycle_stage": "growth-cyclical",
"sector": "Technology / modular power components",
"price_at_rating": 272.05,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_cap_reason": "Both Technical and Catalyst entry groups unmet (daily rolling over, earnings ahead) AND Gate 3 valuation ceiling \u2014 short capped at HOLD ('buy on confirmation'). Valuation ceiling caps all three horizons regardless.",
"quality_score": 78,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "Semis \u2014 Gross Margin + Demand",
"industry_benchmark_value": "GM 58.8% / book-to-bill >2.0",
"industry_benchmark_score": 78,
"moat_score": 67,
"gross_margin_ttm": 0.588,
"operating_margin_ttm_clean": 0.21,
"balance_sheet": "net cash ~$400M, D/E 0.01"
},
"valuation_score": 30,
"val_band": "expensive",
"val_multiple_basis": "clean/forward P/E (FY27 consensus EPS $5.96)",
"actual_multiple": 46.0,
"warranted_multiple": 20.9,
"warranted_ratio": 2.2,
"discount_rate_r": 0.11,
"risk_free_10y": 0.0454,
"g_near": 0.15,
"g_term": 0.03,
"sector_guardrail_line": 28.0,
"reported_pe": 89.8,
"fcf_yield": 0.007,
"earnings_quality_note": "Reported TTM NI $136.7M inflated: +$27.3M tax benefit (Q4'25) + $12.4M other income (Q3'25) + ~$13M/yr recurring interest income. Clean TTM NI ~$88M / EPS ~$1.87. P/E/PEG/margins scored on clean+forward, not reported.",
"timing_score": 42,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 62,
"risk_reward_score": 35,
"rsi_daily": 43,
"daily_trend": "weakening/support-breakdown",
"relative_strength_note": "huge 6-12mo, negative 1mo"
},
"driver_score": 72,
"driver_name": "AI/data-centre power capex cycle (+ IP-licensing)",
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"driver_amplification": "eligible but blocked (base HOLD never amplifies; Expensive band bars STRONG BUY)",
"econ_stance": "Trend-Following",
"econ_pressure": "Tailwind",
"econ_conviction": 65,
"competitive_rivals": [
"Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)",
"Infineon",
"Texas Instruments",
"Analog Devices",
"Renesas",
"Delta Electronics"
],
"competitive_share_trajectory": "Two-sided: losing mid-tier share to MPWR/Infineon on price; gaining/defending high-density top end; ITC exclusion order converts IP into a royalty toll",
"embedded_optionality": "Durable IP-licensing royalty stream (ITC LEO forces competitors to license 48V/vertical-power patents); tilt +5, reason to watch, cannot rescue Expensive",
"ai_tail_bear_leg_applied": true,
"ai_tail_dnb_fired": false,
"ai_tail_reasoning": "Borderline AI cohort: genuinely levered to AI-capex trade (carry bear de-rating leg) BUT not the index-heavyweight / AI-stake-mark-to-market-inflated archetype the armed tail targets; earnings distortion is licensing/tax/interest not AI markups; ITC order strengthens (no Trigger 5). DNB Trigger 2 arm (b) does NOT fire.",
"overall_confidence": 40,
"fair_value_est": 125,
"fair_value_basis": "warranted-multiple intrinsic: 20.9\u00d7 \u00d7 FY27 clean EPS $5.96 \u2248 $125 (cross-check spot $272 \u00f7 2.2\u00d7 actual/warranted = $124); below spot, consistent with the Expensive verdict",
"stop_loss": 203,
"target_price": 300,
"scenario_bull_target": 400,
"scenario_base_target": 300,
"scenario_bear_target": 175,
"scenario_weighted_fv": 294,
"scenario_probs": {
"bull": 0.25,
"base": 0.5,
"bear": 0.25
},
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"gates_triggered": [
"Gate 2 \u2014 Earnings Event Risk (21 Jul, timing conf capped 40%)",
"Gate 3 \u2014 Valuation Ceiling (Expensive, caps at HOLD)"
],
"gates_caution": [
"Gate 4 \u2014 earnings-quality distortion (non-operating income), scored on clean earnings"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-07-22",
"next_update_basis": "Q2 2026 earnings 2026-07-21 +1 trading day"
}
VICR is a genuinely excellent, fortress-balance-sheet power-electronics business riding a real AI-datacenter tailwind (+70% backlog, book-to-bill >2.0) and holding an ITC-validated IP estate that is now a licensing toll. But at $272 — 46× FY27 clean earnings, 2.2× the 20.9× warranted multiple, above the 28× semiconductor guardrail — the price embeds a flawless, licensing-boosted future. The Valuation Ceiling gate caps all three horizons at HOLD; an earnings print in 9 days caps timing confidence. Great business, demanding price: HOLD, watch the $203–$246 support shelf post-earnings for a reachable entry.