Changes Since Last Report — vs. v4 dated 8 Apr 2026
The prior "accumulate-dips" lean was right: UNH was rated HOLD / HOLD-accumulate-dips / HOLD-watch-quality at $306.88; it is now $411.04, +33.9% (and ~+60% off the March low) on a clear earnings turnaround — Q1'26 MCR improved to 83.9% and adjusted EPS rebounded to $7.23. With the recovery now substantially priced in (≈22.5× the >$18.25 FY-2026 adjusted-EPS guide) and the stock at the 52-week high, all three horizons resolve to a clean HOLD.
- Price: $306.88 → $411.04 (+33.9%) — prior accumulate-dips lean validated.
- Timing: 41 → 60 (+19) — downtrend → uptrend; relative strength reversed from −45pp vs SPY to strongly outperforming.
- Quality: 46 → 55 (+9) — Q1'26 EPS $6.90 (adj $7.23) vs a near-zero Q4'25; MCR 88.9% → 83.9% (Q1), FY guide 88.8%.
- Valuation: 65 → 55 (−10) — the +34% run re-rated it to ~22.5× depressed forward EPS; the deep-value entry is gone.
- Gates: earnings-event risk CLEARED (no imminent print); regulatory overhang persists — DOJ Medicare-Advantage probe + a new May-2026 Massachusetts Medicaid suit ($100M+).
- Sentiment: strongly improved — BofA (Neutral→Buy) and Argus (Hold→Buy) upgrades; 43 Buy / 5 Hold / 4 Sell; fresh targets averaging $458.
- Signals: Short HOLD (unch); Medium HOLD-accumulate-dips → HOLD (thesis played out); Long HOLD-watch-quality → HOLD (quality recovering).
- New: Economic Alignment computed — Trend-Following 60 (genuine defensive-healthcare tailwind).
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | HOLD | 58 | 62% | Strong recovery uptrend but extended/overbought (RSI 69) at the 52-week high |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | HOLD | 57 | 62% | Turnaround recovery largely priced (~22.5× depressed EPS); execution + regulatory overhang to clear |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | HOLD | 56 | 62% | High-quality franchise (Optum + scale) but earnings still ~35% below the prior peak; DOJ probe unresolved |
No Do-Not-Buy trigger fired. Hard-gate state: CAUTION — regulatory overhang (DOJ MA probe + MassHealth suit). Driver is Neutral (no pillar adjustment). All-HOLD is robust to the driver band (Medium Quality + Fair Valuation → HOLD regardless of timing).
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores, each 0–100 with confidence. The per-horizon signals come from the Quality / Valuation / Timing matrix (driver is Neutral, so no nudge); Underlying Drivers and Economic Alignment are independent lenses. Managed-care metrics are used — Medical Care Ratio (MCR), ROE, forward P/E and FCF yield, not gross margin.
Business Quality
55
Dominant franchise recovering — MCR & EPS rebounding, but earnings ~35% below the prior peak
Confidence: 68% · Pre-adjustment: 55
Valuation Attractiveness
55
Fair — ~22.5× the >$18.25 forward EPS guide; recovery substantially priced
Confidence: 68% · Pre-adjustment: 55
Underlying Drivers
60
Medicare policy + medical-cost trend — Neutral (improving but regulatory-clouded)
Confidence: 58%
Economic Alignment
60
Trend-Following
Confidence: 60% · Macro report 2026-06-13
Entry/Exit Timing
60
Recovery uptrend intact but extended; near 52-week high, RSI ~69
Confidence: 62% · Pre-adjustment: 60
Overall confidence = min(Quality 68, Valuation 68, Timing 62) = 62%. Driver is Neutral (60) → no pillar adjustment. Economic Alignment is the one green pillar — UNH is genuine defensive healthcare (beta 0.65) that fits the macro report's "Outperform" call on the sector.
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks. The earnings-event gate that was live in April has cleared; the standing flag is the regulatory overhang (DOJ Medicare-Advantage probe plus a new state Medicaid suit), which is a caution reinforcing HOLD, not a Do-Not-Buy.
✅Financial Distress — Clear
Strong FCF (~$21.6/sh, ~5.3% yield), interest coverage 4.8×, investment-grade. No distress.
✅Earnings Event — Clear
Q1 reported 5 May; next (Q2) ~mid-July 2026 (inferred) — >14 days out. (Was triggered in April.)
✅Valuation Ceiling — Clear
$411 below the $492 Street high and below median $417; far below the multi-year $630 high. ~22.5× forward is full but not extreme.
✅Dilution / Accounting — Clear
Share count 927M → 910M YoY (buybacks). Watch GAAP-vs-adjusted gap from 2025 charges.
⚠️Regulatory / Binary — CAUTION
DOJ criminal + civil Medicare-Advantage probe ongoing; new May-2026 Massachusetts MassHealth suit ($100M+). A material overhang — reinforces HOLD.
✅Severe Driver Collapse — Clear
Driver 60 (Neutral); MA rates improving for 2026/27.
Do-Not-Buy Triggers
✅Leverage + Rising Rates — Clear
Manageable leverage; defensive cash flows.
✅Valuation at 5-yr Extreme — Clear
Mid-range of its multi-year band; far below 2024 highs.
✅Negative Earnings Revisions — Clear
Estimates & targets RISING; 6 Street upgrades in two weeks.
✅Insider Selling Spike — Clear
No abnormal cluster; founder-CEO Hemsley re-engaged.
✅Structural Business Threat — Clear (monitor)
Regulatory/PBM-reform pressure is real but managed care is not structurally impaired.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into Quality using managed-care metrics: Medical Care Ratio (the key benchmark), margins/ROE, cash generation, the Optum moat, and capital allocation. The story is a high-quality franchise recovering from a 2025 cost crisis — improving, but not yet back to its historical "high."
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A dominant, vertically-integrated healthcare franchise (UnitedHealthcare + Optum, ~$400B revenue) recovering from a severe 2025 medical-cost shock. Q1'26 MCR fell to 83.9% and adjusted EPS rebounded to $7.23 — genuine improvement — but full-year EPS (>$18.25 guide) is still ~35% below the 2024 peak, ROIC is compressed, and a DOJ probe clouds the picture. Improving toward high quality, not there yet.
55
Confidence 68% · base 55 → adj 55
Lifecycle & sector: Healthcare — Managed Care / Health Plans + health services (Optum). Lifecycle = Mature (in turnaround). Macro sensitivity = Low → timing macro weight 10%.
| Sub-signal | Value | Benchmark | Score | Rationale |
|---|
| Medical Care Ratio (key) | Q1'26 83.9% · FY guide 88.8% (was 89.1%) | <85% good, >88% elevated | 48 | Improving 30bp YoY and Q1 beat, but full-year still elevated — the core of the turnaround. |
| Profitability / margins | Q1'26 op margin 8.0%, net 5.6% | Recovering from 2025 trough | 52 | Rebounding hard from the near-zero Q4'25; still below historical. |
| Cash generation | FCF ~$21.6/sh · ~5.3% FCF yield | >5% attractive | 70 | Cash flow held up far better than GAAP EPS through the crisis — the real quality anchor. |
| Balance-sheet health | D/E 0.75 · interest cov 4.8× · div payout ~66% | IG, adequate | 62 | Solid for a managed-care insurer; dividend covered. |
| Revenue trajectory | ~+2% YoY ($111.7B Q1) | Low-to-mid single digit | 50 | Slow growth as Medicaid/MA are repriced and membership rationalised. |
Industry Benchmark — Medical Care Ratio
Q1'26 MCR 83.9% (seasonally low, beat); full-year guide 88.8% ±50bps, improving 30bp from 2025's 89.1%. Rating: ELEVATED but improving. Benchmark score 48/100 (was 35 in April). Context: a sub-85% MCR is healthy; UNH's full-year ~88.8% reflects lingering Medicare-Advantage cost pressure that is normalising rather than fully resolved.
Competitive Moat Scorecard — average 66
Pricing Power
58
Annual repricing, but regulated & politically scrutinised.
Network Effects
62
Scale data + provider/payer network advantages.
Switching Costs
70
Employer/member stickiness; Optum embedded in workflows.
Cost Advantage
72
Vertical integration (Optum Rx/Health) + unmatched scale.
Intangible Assets
70
Data, licenses, brand — high regulatory barriers to entry.
FMP cross-reference: FMP rates UNH B+ (3/5), with DCF, ROE and ROA sub-scores all at 4 — confirming a fundamentally strong, cash-generative franchise. P/E sub-score 2 reflects the elevated trailing multiple on depressed earnings; the D/E sub-score of 1 is the usual large-financial artifact. Net: a high-quality business at a full trailing multiple — consistent with our "recovering, fairly valued" read.
4
Valuation Attractiveness
A deep dive into Valuation: forward P/E on the FY-2026 guide, FCF yield, the analyst consensus and (rising) fresh targets, plus the FMP cross-reference. The key nuance — the multiple looks high on trailing/guided EPS precisely because earnings are mid-recovery.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Fair — and meaningfully less attractive than April's deep-value setup. At $411 the stock trades ~31× trailing and ~22.5× the >$18.25 FY-2026 adjusted-EPS guide. That's a full multiple on still-depressed earnings: it prices a substantial recovery. The bull case rests on EPS rebuilding toward $26–30 by 2027–28, which the rising analyst targets ($458 fresh, $492 high) embed. FCF yield ~5.3% is the supportive anchor.
55
Confidence 68% · base 55 → adj 55
| Lens | Reading | Score | Interpretation |
|---|
| Forward P/E (primary) | ~22.5× the >$18.25 FY-2026 adj-EPS guide | 48 | Full for a managed-care name; the multiple is elevated because EPS is mid-recovery. Normalises toward ~14–16× if EPS rebuilds to $26–30. |
| FCF yield (anchor) | ~5.3% (FCF ~$21.6/sh) | 5–8% attractive | The supportive factor — cash generation held up far better than GAAP EPS through the crisis. |
| Historical decile | ~4–5 of its multi-year range | — | Up from decile 2 in April; no longer washed out, but well below the 2023–24 range ($450–630). |
| Reverse-DCF / implied growth | Prices a partial multi-year earnings recovery | 52 | Roughly fair if MCR keeps normalising; rich if the recovery stalls. |
| Analyst target (10%) | Consensus $418.5 · median $417 · high $492 · low $345 | 52 | Price ~2% below consensus, but fresh last-month targets average $458 (+11%) — analysts re-rating upward as the recovery shows. |
| Grades consensus (5%) | 43 Buy · 5 Hold · 4 Sell — 83% bullish | 72 | Strong Buy consensus; 6 upgrades in two weeks. Note: near-extreme bullishness can be a mild contrarian caution. |
Embedded Optionality / Free Upside
- Earnings normalisation: if MCR returns toward ~86% and EPS rebuilds to the historical ~$28–30, today's ~22.5× becomes ~14×. The market only partly credits this.
- Optum re-acceleration: Optum Health/Insight/Rx margin recovery is a large, partly-discounted earnings lever inside the consolidated multiple.
- Buybacks at a low base: repurchasing while EPS is depressed is accretive as earnings recover.
Net framing: the optionality IS the bull case here (a full earnings recovery), and you're paying a fair-to-full price for it — a +2 tilt (already in the 55), not evidence the stock is cheap today. The regulatory tail offsets it.
5
Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force for a managed-care insurer — Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement policy and the medical-cost trend — scored 0–100. At 60 it is Neutral and applies no pillar adjustment.
| Horizon (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|
| Historical (25%) | 2025 was a severe negative (MA cost surge, guidance cut), but MA rate notices for 2026/27 came in more favourable and the cost trend is stabilising. | 58 |
| Current (50%) | MCR improving (Q1 83.9%, FY guide 88.8% vs 89.1%); rates supportive — offset by the DOJ probe and a new state Medicaid suit. | 60 |
| Forward (25%) | Continued cost normalisation expected, but PBM-reform/MA-audit political risk and the unresolved DOJ matter cap the upside. | 60 |
Driver score = 60 → "Neutral." No pillar adjustment (50–64 band). Improving fundamentals are balanced by an unusually heavy regulatory/legal overhang. Driver confidence 58% (contested/indirect policy linkage, DOJ uncertainty).
Thesis-invalidation floor: MCR re-spikes above ~91% (cost trend re-accelerates), OR the DOJ files charges / imposes a large settlement, OR PBM/MA legislation materially impairs the model — any of these flips the driver to a headwind.
6
Economic Alignment
How current economic conditions and capital flows help or hinder the stock, from the latest Macro-Economic report (2026-06-13). Contrarian seeks profit in undervalued stocks against the trend; here the read is a genuine Trend-Following tailwind. Independent lens — it does not move the signal.
Source: GICS Healthcare sector map → XLV: Short Outperform · Medium Outperform · Long Neutral, from the MacroDriver report dated 2026-06-13. Dominant regime: Stagflation (oil shock + hawkish Fed).
Why Trend-Following (unlike the speculative-biotech names): UNH is the archetypal defensive large-cap healthcare stock — beta 0.65, non-cyclical demand, dividend-paying. In a risk-off / stagflation regime the macro report's "Outperform" call on Healthcare genuinely fits UNH: it is exactly the flight-to-safety bid. So going long here rides the economic tailwind → Trend-Following, conviction 60 (tempered by UNH's company-specific regulatory overhang). Confidence 60%. This lens does not move the BUY/HOLD/SELL signal.
7
Entry/Exit Timing
A deep dive into Timing: the multi-timeframe trend, risk-reward anchored to the stop, relative strength, the macro overlay at a Low sector weight (10%), sentiment, and the catalyst cluster. The picture: a powerful recovery uptrend that is now extended.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
A strong recovery: weekly and daily are in confirmed uptrends, price is ~24% above the 200-DMA ($332), and relative strength has flipped from deeply negative to strongly outperforming. But it's now extended — at the 52-week high ($415.98), daily RSI ~69, with the nearest real support (SMA50 ~$366) a wide ~4.7 ATR away. Good for holders; a poor fresh entry.
60
Confidence 62% · base 60 → adj 60
| Component (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | Weekly + daily uptrend/strong-uptrend + breakout (price > SMA50 $366 > SMA200 $332); monthly still a multi-year downtrend (basing, MACD turning up); 15-min weakening. | 60 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | At 52w high $415.98; ~4.7 ATR (ATR $9.8) above the SMA50 stop zone; only +1.5% to median target. Extended. | 48 |
| Macro overlay (10%) | Defensive healthcare bid (XLV Outperform); low rate sensitivity; FOMC tomorrow is only a second-order factor. | 62 |
| Sentiment (20%) | Strongly improving — 6 Street upgrades in two weeks (BofA, Argus among them); 83% bullish; rising targets. | 72 |
| Catalyst cluster (20%) | Q2 earnings ~mid-July (the MCR-trajectory checkpoint); DOJ probe is an open-ended overhang. | 58 |
Relative strength: a dramatic reversal — from −45pp vs SPY in April to strongly outperforming over 1m and 3m (+34% / +60% off the low). Leadership plus an overbought RSI at a 52-week high is a "let it cool" setup for new capital, not a chase.
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next ~2 weeks plus recent surprises. UNH has Low macro sensitivity, so no WAIT override applies — for this name the relevant calendar is regulatory/company-specific (DOJ, Q2 earnings), not the economic tape.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast / Prev | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 17 Jun (tomorrow) | FOMC Rate Decision | High | Hold ~3.75% | ⚠️ Low | Defensive, low-beta name — only a second-order, risk-appetite read-through. |
| ~mid-Jul | UNH Q2 2026 earnings (inferred) | High (co-specific) | MCR trajectory + guidance | ✅ Yes | The key checkpoint — does MCR keep improving toward the 88.8% guide? |
| open-ended | DOJ MA probe / MassHealth suit | High (co-specific) | — | ✅ Yes | Regulatory headline risk, not on a fixed calendar. |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Read |
|---|
| 12 Jun | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.9 | 46.0 | Beat — mild risk-on (marginal for a defensive name). |
| 15 Jun | NY Empire State Manufacturing | 5.7 | 14.0 | Miss — reinforces the risk-off backdrop that favours defensives like UNH. |
The economic calendar barely moves UNH directly. The events that matter are company-specific — the mid-July Q2 print (MCR check) and any DOJ/legal headline. A defensive bid from the risk-off macro regime is a mild background tailwind.
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI, MACD and breakout status across five timeframes plus a confluence verdict. The recovery shows as bullish weekly/daily structure layered over a still-healing multi-year monthly downtrend.
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Downtrend (basing) ↓ | 52 | −, histogram turning + | S: $383 / $256 · R: $554 | Resistance breakout | 0.4x |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | 68 | +, rising | S: $295 · R: $404 | Resistance breakout | 0.2x |
| Daily | Strong uptrend ↑ | 69 | +, rising | S: $375 / SMA50 $366 · R: $415.98 (52w high) | Resistance breakout | 1.0x |
| Hourly | Strong uptrend ↑ | 55 | +, flat | S: $399.6 · R: $414.2 | Resistance breakout | — |
| 15-min | Weakening → | 49 | flat | S: $409.3 · R: $414.2 | — | 0.6x |
| Confluence: Bullish — MTF trend score ≈ 60; weekly/daily recovery uptrend over a multi-year monthly base, near-term extended |
The recovery is real and confirmed on the weekly/daily charts — UNH bottomed near $256 in late March and has climbed to $411, now testing the 52-week high at $415.98 with daily RSI ~69 (near overbought). The monthly chart is still a multi-year downtrend repairing itself (price fell from ~$630 in 2024). The high-probability re-entry zone is a pullback toward $366–375 (SMA50 / prior support); the 52-week high at $415.98 is the immediate hurdle, with blue sky and the $404/$383 levels as support below.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with the SMA50 and key levels overlaid. The January earnings gap-down, the late-March bottom near $256, and the powerful recovery to $411 are all visible.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month paths with triggers and probability weights. The base case is close to the current price — the recovery has captured most of the near-term upside, with a regulatory left tail.
Bull · 30% · $492 (+20%)
MCR normalises to ~86%, EPS rebuilds toward $26–30, DOJ resolves benignly, Optum margins recover — multiple re-rates on rising earnings.
Base · 45% · $440 (+7%)
Gradual MCR improvement toward the 88.8% guide, adj EPS ~$18–20, targets drift up; defensive bid persists. Trades around fair value $425.
Bear · 25% · $345 (−16%)
MCR re-spikes or guidance is cut again, DOJ files charges / large settlement, PBM-reform legislation — multiple de-rates back toward the recovery base.
Probability-weighted EV ≈ 0.30×492 + 0.45×440 + 0.25×345 = $431.5, ~+5% from $411 — modest, with a meaningful regulatory left tail. Flat-to-modest EV after a +34% run, at a full multiple, is the textbook HOLD setup.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Mechanical entry/exit conditions. Currently 0 of 3 entry criteria met (the value entry is well below; the breakout is into overbought) and 0 of 3 exit criteria triggered.
Entry Rule 1 — Pullback to support (preferred)
BUY on a pullback into $366–380 (SMA50 / EMA20 zone) that holds on a daily close. NOT met — price $411 is ~9% above.
Forecast: plausible on a broad risk-off pullback or a soft Q2/regulatory headline.Entry Rule 2 — Breakout continuation
BUY a daily close above $415.98 (52w high) on >1.5× volume with RSI < 70. NOT cleanly met — RSI ~69, right at the high; a breakout here is a chase.
Forecast: possible imminently, but RSI makes it low-quality until momentum resets.Entry Rule 3 — Catalyst
BUY post-Q2 earnings (~mid-July) on continued MCR improvement + reaffirmed/raised guidance. PENDING.
Forecast: ~mid-July; the key fundamental checkpoint.Exit Rule 1 — Hard stop
SELL if price closes below $365 (under the SMA50 $366 / $375 support) for 2 consecutive days. Not triggered.
Exit Rule 2 — Thesis invalidation
SELL if MCR re-spikes above ~91%, OR FY guidance is cut again, OR the DOJ files charges / a large settlement. Not triggered.
Exit Rule 3 — Profit-take / trim
Trim into $470–492 (Street high) if RSI > 72. Not triggered (price $411).
Imagine you act at the current price $411.04 · as of 15 Jun 2026 close
What if you bought now?
You'd be risking −$46 (−11.2%) to the $365 stop to gain +$29 (+7%) base / +$81 (+20%) bull.
- Risking: downside to stop $365 (−11.2%); bear case $345 (−16%) on a regulatory hit or MCR re-spike; plus — no entry rule is met: buying at the 52-week high, overbought, ~4.7 ATR above support, with an open-ended DOJ overhang.
- Gaining: base $440 (+7%) · bull $492 (+20%); the 2.18% dividend; and the earnings-normalisation optionality (EPS rebuild toward $26–30).
- Net: risk-reward to base ≈ 0.6:1, to bull ≈ 1.8:1 — unattractive for a fresh entry. Read: waiting for the $366–380 zone (or a clean post-Q2 confirmation) materially improves the deal.
What if you sold now?
You'd be locking in the +34% recovery and sidestepping a −16% regulatory tail — at the cost of the multi-year recovery upside.
- Giving up: base upside to $440 (+7%), bull $492 (+20%), the dividend, and the EPS-normalisation optionality; selling ~3% below fair value $425.
- Protecting: a large realised gain off the lows and capital against the DOJ/MCR bear case ($345). Exit rules currently triggered? None.
- Net: no mechanical exit signal. For a holder this is a "ride the recovery, trail a stop, trim into strength" zone; for new capital, wait for a pullback or the Q2 check.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative volatility context only — not advice.
Position size not computed — no allocation or portfolio role was specified. The low beta (0.65) makes UNH a relatively stabilising holding, but headline/regulatory gap risk (as in 2025) is the real hazard — size for the tail, not the beta.
| Volatility context | Value | Meaning |
|---|
| Daily ATR | ~$9.8 (~2.4% of price) | Moderate day-to-day, but prone to large event gaps (Q4'25 gapped ~−20%). |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.65 | Defensive — less market-driven volatility than the index. |
| Trailing-year range | $234.60 → $415.98 | ~−44% peak-to-trough over the crisis; now back near the top of the year's range. |
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, key level, delta vs the prior report, and the watchlist Hard-Gate / Entry / Exit fields. Saved as calibration-UNH-20260616-1330.json.
{
"ticker": "UNH",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:UNH",
"isin": "US91324P1021",
"date": "2026-06-16",
"version": "v6",
"prior_report": "2026-04-08",
"user_context": { "horizon": "all", "allocation_pct": null, "portfolio_role": null },
"sector": "Healthcare / Managed Care",
"lifecycle_stage": "mature_turnaround",
"price_at_rating": 411.04,
"price_prior": 306.88,
"price_change_since_prior_pct": 33.9,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"signal_medium_prior": "HOLD_ACCUMULATE_DIPS",
"signal_long_prior": "HOLD_WATCH_QUALITY",
"quality_score": 55,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "Medical Care Ratio",
"industry_benchmark_value": "Q1 83.9% / FY guide 88.8%",
"industry_benchmark_score": 48,
"moat_score": 66, "mcr_q1_pct": 83.9, "mcr_fy_guide_pct": 88.8,
"eps_q1_2026_gaap": 6.90, "eps_q1_2026_adj": 7.23, "fy2026_adj_eps_guide": 18.25
},
"valuation_score": 55,
"valuation_detail": {
"forward_pe_on_guide": 22.5, "trailing_pe": 31.1, "fcf_yield": 5.3,
"p_b": 3.6, "dividend_yield_pct": 2.18, "historical_valuation_decile": 4
},
"timing_score": 60,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 60, "mtf_label": "Bullish", "risk_reward_score": 48,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "outperform_strong", "catalyst_clustering_score": 58,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.10, "rsi_daily": 69, "atr_daily": 9.8,
"sma50_daily": 366.41, "sma200_daily": 332.12
},
"driver_score": 60,
"driver_label": "Neutral",
"driver_score_prior": 60,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 60,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-13",
"overall_confidence": 62,
"fair_value_est": 425,
"stop_loss": 365,
"target_price": 440,
"target_bull": 492,
"target_bear": 345,
"analyst_consensus_target": 418.50,
"analyst_target_high": 492,
"analyst_target_low": 345,
"analyst_target_median": 417,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 1.8,
"analyst_target_fresh_lastmonth_avg": 458.25,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 82.7,
"analyst_coverage_count": 52,
"fmp_rating": "B+",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 2,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": ["regulatory_overhang_DOJ_MA_probe_MassHealth_suit"],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_criteria_total": 3,
"entry_criteria_met": 0,
"exit_criteria_total": 3,
"exit_criteria_met": 0,
"key_catalyst": "Q2 earnings ~mid-Jul (MCR check); DOJ MA probe (open-ended)",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-16"
}
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source, with OK / partial / fail indicators and the confidence haircuts applied.
Data Source Status
✓
get_company_profile / get_previous_day_bar — OK ($411.04 close confirmed, 6.8M vol)
✓
get_financial_ratios / get_income_statement — OK (6 quarters; MCR derived from filing)
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis — OK (all 5 timeframes)
✓
get_price_target_consensus / summary — OK ($418.5; fresh avg $458, deep coverage)
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades — OK (43B/5H/4S; 2 upgrades 30d)
✓
get_ratings_snapshot — OK (B+; ROE/ROA/DCF sub-scores 4)
✓
Web (Q1'26 release, MCR, guidance, DOJ) — OK (MCR 83.9%, FY guide 88.8%/>$18.25 EPS, MassHealth suit)
✗
get_earnings_calendar — empty; next earnings (~mid-Jul) inferred from cadence
Impact on scores: Overall confidence 62% is gated by Timing (62%) — the stock is extended/overbought near its 52-week high, and the dominant risks (DOJ, MCR trajectory) are company-specific and hard to time. Quality/Valuation confidence (68%) reflects good data but genuine uncertainty in the earnings-recovery path (the >$18.25 guide is a conservative floor). No data failure forced a section to be dropped.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.