NASDAQ:TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.

ISIN: US8740541094
Communication ServicesInteractive Entertainment
NASDAQ · Interactive Entertainment · HQ New York, NY Analysis Status: Starting
All figures in US$ (USD). Fiscal year ends 31 March.
$242.17
−2.1%
31 Jul 2026 · Signal v6
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.

Take-Two Interactive is one of the world's largest video-game publishers, built around three labels: Rockstar Games (the Grand Theft Auto and Red Dead Redemption blockbusters), 2K (NBA 2K, WWE 2K, Borderlands, BioShock, Civilization) and Zynga (free-to-play mobile hits like Toon Blast and Zynga Poker). It makes money by developing and publishing premium console/PC titles, by "recurrent consumer spending" inside live games (virtual currency, add-ons, NBA 2K's in-game economy, GTA Online), and by mobile advertising and in-app purchases. Its distinguishing asset is ownership of Grand Theft Auto — arguably the single most valuable intellectual property in interactive entertainment (GTA V has sold 215M+ units) — alongside the deepest catalogue of owned franchises in the industry. The company is defined right now by the run-up to Grand Theft Auto VI, scheduled for 19 November 2026, the most anticipated entertainment launch on record.

HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo)HOLD5458%Neutral timing — extended near 52-wk highs into 7-Aug earnings; buy on confirmation
Medium-term (6–12 mo)BUY6060%GTA VI (19 Nov) tailwind + quality; ~15% to weighted fair value
Long-term (3–5 yr)BUY6362%Category-of-one IP; franchise quality dominates at 3–5yr
Next update: 2026-08-10 — earnings 2026-08-07 +1 trading day (GTA VI launch 19 Nov 2026 the larger catalyst)
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status3Pillar Detail: Business Quality4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing8Economic Event Risk9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis10Price Chart (6-Month Daily)11Scenario Summary12Entry / Exit Rules13Position Sizing Context14Calibration Snapshot15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.

Business Quality

70
high (pre-launch trough)
conf 72%

Valuation Attractiveness

57
fair
conf 66%

Entry/Exit Timing

54
neutral
conf 58%

Underlying Drivers

78
Tailwind (GTA VI)
conf 68%

Economic Alignment

48
Neutral
conf 60%
2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
Financial Distress
Net debt/EBITDA ~0.8×, cash $2.0B, current ratio 1.24, OCF guided >$1B FY27 — no distress.
⚠️
Earnings Event Risk
Q1 FY27 earnings 7 Aug (7 days) — binary event; caps timing confidence, blocks the Fundamental entry path until it clears.
Valuation Ceiling
Fair on the normalised anchor (25.5× → 1.06× warranted). Optically rich on the FY27 stub year (35.7×) but even then only a HOLD-cap risk, never a DNB.
Accounting / Dilution
GAAP loss is amortisation-driven (pre-launch trough), fully disclosed; share count ~185M, not a dilution red flag. FY25 Zynga impairment is historical.
⚠️
Binary Event — GTA VI
The 19 Nov launch is a large, dated, binary-timing catalyst (a 4th delay is the key downside). Directionally a positive catalyst, so caution not triggered.
Severe Driver Collapse
Driver score 78 — nowhere near the ≤15 collapse threshold.
Do-Not-Buy triggers: all clear. No leverage-into-rising-rates (net debt/EBITDA 0.8×), no valuation extreme even on the rich stub-year reading (35.7× < the 39×/48× DNB lines, and GTA VI is an upside catalyst — not an armed de-rating catalyst; TTWO is not in the macro report's AI-concentration cohort), no persistent negative revisions (estimates rising into the launch), no insider-selling spike, no structural business-model threat. Two caution gates (earnings 7 Aug, binary GTA VI) are sizing/timing flags, not signal caps.
3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
High-quality franchise in its pre-mega-release trough
70
conf 72%

Lifecycle & sector: Communication Services — interactive entertainment (Electronic Gaming & Multimedia). Lifecycle stage Growth — pre-mega-release inflection: Take-Two sits in the trough before the largest launch in its history (Grand Theft Auto VI, 19 Nov 2026). The right lens is therefore net-bookings growth, the release slate, and the margin/FCF inflection the launch triggers — not the depressed trailing GAAP earnings, which are loss-making today because of purchase-accounting amortisation (the 2022 Zynga deal) and heavy pre-launch investment. Scoring the business on trailing P/E or ROE here is the classic "wrong-lens" error.

Sub-signal (sector-appropriate)ValueContextScore
Net-bookings trajectoryFY26 net bookings $6.72B (beat, +~14%); FY27 guide $8.0–8.2B (+~20%, GTA VI-led)Guide is below Street ~$9.3B — a deliberately conservative "pricing test"; BMO models ~$10.65B74
Profitability / margin inflectionGAAP net margin −4.5% (trough); gross margin 57%; EBITDA margin 17.8%Operating margin inflects sharply once GTA VI ships; OCF guided >$1B FY2756
Cash generationFCF ~$0.45B TTM (~1% EV yield); OCF ~$0.62BThin now (pre-launch spend); the launch is the FCF inflection, not the current run-rate55
Balance-sheet healthNet debt ~$0.97B; net debt/EBITDA ~0.8×; cash $2.0B; current ratio 1.24Comfortable — funds the launch run-up without a raise72
Franchise & catalogue depth (the core quality asset)GTA (215M+ lifetime units on GTA V), NBA 2K record year, Red Dead, Borderlands, Civilization, WWE 2K; 29-title pipeline FY27–29; Zynga best bookings since acquisitionDeepest owned-IP stable in the industry; GTA is a category of one88
ROIC / ROE (trailing)ROE −10.6%, ROA −0.5% (trough)Meaningless at the bottom of the release cycle; inflects post-launch — scored low but flagged as trough35

Industry benchmark — Net-Bookings Growth + Margin Inflection

FY27 net bookings guided +~20% (GTA VI-led) on a healthy portfolio (NBA 2K record RCS, Zynga recovering), but operating margin is still in its pre-launch trough. Rating: PRE-INFLECTION — strong top-line, margins yet to turn. Benchmark score 62/100 now, set to jump once GTA VI recognises — the whole investment case is that this benchmark re-rates through FY27–FY28.
Pricing power
70
Recurrent consumer spend (NBA 2K, GTA Online) + premium $70–80 SKUs; a possible $80+ GTA VI price is a real test.
Network effects
65
GTA Online and NBA 2K live communities; Zynga social loops. Moderate, not two-sided-marketplace strong.
Switching costs
55
In-game progression / social investment lock some players in, but gamers move freely between titles.
Cost advantage
50
AAA-development scale, but no structural per-unit cost edge over EA / Microsoft.
Intangible assets
88
GTA is arguably the most valuable IP in interactive entertainment; the catalogue is the moat.

Moat composite = 66/100 — carried almost entirely by IP/brand intangibles; the walls are thinner on switching costs and cost advantage.

Competitive Environment

The defining feature of the competitive map is that GTA is a category of one — there is no direct substitute for the GTA experience, so competition is a fight for player time and wallet, not a race to replace the franchise. That is what protects the core. The pressure points are the economics: subscription bundling (Game Pass) chips at the premium unit model, mobile (Zynga) is hits-driven and competitive, and platform holders take their cut. Share trajectory: stable (GTA dominant, sports 2K stable, mobile recovering). Threat level: moderate.

Direct competitorThreat typeShare trajectory (TTWO vs rival)Moat-erosion vector
Electronic Arts (EA)Sports & action rival (Madden / FC vs NBA 2K; Battlefield vs action). Going private — $55B PIF/Silver Lake/Affinity, closes 4 Aug 2026Stable — limited genre overlap (EA owns football/soccer, 2K owns basketball/wrestling)Low direct overlap; the EA buyout at ~6× sales validates premium IP multiples for TTWO
Microsoft / Activision BlizzardCall of Duty (action-shooter attention), King (mobile vs Zynga), Game Pass subscriptionTTWO stable; mobile losing modest share to KingStructural: Game Pass normalises subscription and erodes the premium $70–80 unit model over time
Sony PlayStation StudiosFirst-party exclusives compete for console attention; Sony is also the platform holderStablePlatform tax (~30%) + exclusive-window competition for launch-window attention
Tencent / Supercell / Playrix (mobile)Zynga's genre rivals in casual/social mobileZynga stabilising (best bookings since 2022 acquisition)Rising user-acquisition costs; mobile is hits-driven and less durable than console IP

Net effect on the moat: → Switching Costs trimmed to 55, Cost Advantage to 50; the moat rests on GTA/catalogue intangibles (88). Overall competitive threat level: moderate, share trajectory stable. The live erosion vector to watch is Game-Pass-style subscription pressure on premium unit economics — carried into the §11 Bear and the §12 thesis-invalidation.

ROIC & Capital Allocation

Trailing ROIC/ROE are negative — the trough — so the read is qualitative. Capital allocation is mixed: the $12.7B Zynga acquisition (2022) took a ~$3.6B impairment in FY2025 (the source of that year's −$25.58 EPS), a genuine blemish; but Zynga is now delivering its best bookings since the deal, so the asset is working even if it was overpaid for. CEO Strauss Zelnick is long-tenured with a strong record of GTA-franchise stewardship and disciplined greenlighting. Management skin-in-the-game is modest (insider ownership low, SBC present but share-count growth is not a red flag at ~185M). Capital-allocation sub-score ~55.

FMP financial-health cross-reference — and why it diverges

FMP rates TTWO D+ (overall score 1/5), with 1/5 on DCF, ROE, ROA, D/E, P/E and P/B. That is a purely backward, GAAP read — every one of those metrics is depressed in the pre-launch trough (negative earnings, negative ROE, high P/B on a thin book). Our Quality score weights the franchise IP, the balance sheet, and the forward net-bookings trajectory instead, which is why the two diverge sharply. The divergence is itself informative: it flags that anyone scoring TTWO on trailing GAAP is mis-reading a cyclical trough as a broken business.

4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Fair — paying up for a launch two years out; not cheap, not expensive
57
conf 66%

Take-Two is a pre-mega-release growth name: trailing GAAP earnings are negative, so trailing P/E is meaningless. The honest lenses are EV/Sales, forward P/E on normalised post-GTA-VI earnings, and the pipeline. The verdict is Fair — you are paying up today, near 52-week highs, for an earnings step-change that mostly lands in FY2028; the price is roughly what a disciplined rate-and-growth anchor warrants, with real (but not free) upside if GTA VI over-delivers versus a deliberately conservative guide.

THE ANCHOR — Warranted-multiple valuation

Discount rate r = 10-Y Treasury (~4.45%, per the 30-Jul MacroDriver policy-tight regime read) + equity-risk-premium 4.5% + risk add-on 0.0% (Business Quality ≥ 65) → r ≈ 9.0%. Growth g: secular-growth Comm-Services cap 15%, haircut-disciplined to g_near = 11%; g_term = 3%. Two-stage → warranted P/E ≈ 24× (below the Comm-Services guardrail line of 26×, so the guardrail does not bind).

The multiple basis matters — we state both:

Earnings basisClean forward P/E÷ warranted 24×Read
FY2027E ($6.78 EPS) — stub GTA VI year (only ~4 months post-19 Nov)~35.7×1.49×Optically rich (above the 26× guardrail)
FY2028E (~$10.5 EPS) — first full GTA VI year (the anchor basis)~23.1×0.96×Attractive/Fair edge on that year alone
Normalised / time-discounted blend (the earnings aren't earned for ~2yr)~25.5×1.06×FAIR

We anchor on the normalised blend (25.5× → 1.06× → Fair): the FY2028 full-year multiple is achievable but not earned for ~two years, and on the nearer stub year the stock is genuinely rich (35.7×, above the 26× Comm-Services guardrail). That stub-year richness is exactly why the Short is a HOLD and why no horizon is amplified to STRONG BUY — you are not backing the truck up at 52-week highs on earnings two years out. Gate check: on the anchor basis the name is Fair, so the Valuation-Ceiling gate is clear; even on the rich stub-year reading the worst case is a HOLD cap, never a Do-Not-Buy (35.7× < the 39× [1.5×-guardrail] and 48× [2.0×-warranted] Do-Not-Buy lines, and GTA VI is an upside catalyst).

Cross-check lensReadingSignal
FCF yield (universal anchor)~1.0% on EV (FCF ~$0.45B / EV ~$46.9B)Expensive / pre-cash-generative — the pre-launch trough
EV/Sales (TTM)7.05× (P/S 6.8×)Premium, but near EA's ~6.2× forward and the EA take-private at ~6× sales
Sector median P/E (~13× Comm-Svcs)Far above on any near-year basisExpensive vs the broad sector (but the sector median is the wrong comp for a launch-year IP owner)
Own 5-yr historyForward P/E below its own ~46× 5-yr averageAttractive on its own history (decile ~3)
PEG~3.4 (trailing basis, distorted by trough)Not meaningful at the earnings trough
Analyst target consensus (29 analysts)Price $242 vs consensus $288 (median $287, high $368, low $170) — ~19% upsideAttractive — meaningful upside to consensus
Grades distribution45 Buy / 12 Hold / 0 Sell (~79% bullish); rec. "Strong Buy"Bullish — but note the crowd is very one-sided (mild contrarian caution)

Reverse-DCF / implied growth

At $242 with r≈9%, the price embeds roughly low-to-mid-teens normalised earnings growth off the post-launch base — i.e. it already prices GTA VI succeeding. Our disciplined estimate is ~11% plus the one-time launch step, so the price embeds broadly what the fundamentals support, with the asymmetry sitting in the launch magnitude rather than the base multiple.

Embedded optionality / free upside

Four options the current price arguably under-pays for:

Framing: the core business justifies roughly the current ~$240–250; the conservative-guide beat and the GTA Online VI annuity are largely free options on top. This is a +5 tilt (already in the 57) — it does not make a launch-priced stock "cheap," it cushions the downside and is the reason to keep accumulating on weakness.

5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Primary Driver
GTA VI launch (19 Nov 2026) — timing & magnitude
78
Tailwind (eligible; does not fire)

Primary driver: the Grand Theft Auto VI launch — its timing and its magnitude. This is idiosyncratic, not a macro/commodity driver: TTWO's next two years are dominated by one dated, binary-ish event. Current expected release: Thursday 19 November 2026 (PS5 / Xbox Series X|S) — locked in November 2025 and reaffirmed by CEO Zelnick in the July 2026 shareholder letter ("2027 has the potential to be a major inflection point… led by the planned November 19th release of Grand Theft Auto VI"). No further delay is announced as of end-July 2026. Note it falls in fiscal Q3 FY2027 (FY27 ends 31 Mar 2027).

HorizonReadScore
Historical (25%)Announced Dec 2023; three slips — Fall 2025 → 26 May 2026 → 19 Nov 2026. The delay history is the standing risk, but the date has now held for ~9 months.65
Current (50%)Date locked and reaffirmed; the most-anticipated entertainment launch on record (GTA V: 215M+ lifetime units). Marketing ramp underway.82
Forward (25%)FY27 guide $8.0–8.2B GTA-VI-led (conservative vs Street $9.3B / BMO $10.65B); FY28 first full year ~$10.5 EPS; GTA Online VI a multi-year annuity.80

Driver score = 78 — Tailwind. Per horizon: Short ~60 (Neutral) — the launch is ~16 weeks out and there is no near-term driver catalyst but the 7-Aug earnings; Medium ~80 / Long ~80 (Tailwind) — the launch and its FY28 full-year flow-through sit squarely in these windows.

Amplification role — eligible, but it does NOT fire

At 78 (≥65) the driver is eligible to lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY. But amplification requires both the driver and Economic-Alignment pressure to corroborate, and macro pressure is Neutral (§6). So the strong GTA VI tailwind is noted but no horizon is amplified — Medium and Long stay BUY, not STRONG BUY. The driver does not change the base signal or the fundamental pillar scores.

Thesis-invalidation floor

The case breaks on a fourth delay of GTA VI (a slip past 19 Nov 2026 into 2027) — that pushes the entire earnings step-change out a year and punctures the pre-launch premium. Secondary breaks: a launch that materially under-delivers versus even the conservative guide, an $80+ price backlash, or Game-Pass-style subscription pressure eroding the premium unit model. These are the live downside dials — carried into the §11 Bear and §12 exits.

6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Stance · Pressure
Neutral · Neutral
48
conviction

The 30-Jul MacroDriver reads a Stagflation-lite regime (energy shock re-armed on Iran re-escalation, policy-tight into cooling growth; a narrow, contested, tape-unconfirmed lead). Communication Services (XLC) maps Underperform (short) / Underperform (medium) / Neutral (long) — but that sector signal is driven by mega-cap advertising weakness. Take-Two is idiosyncratic: its next two years are set by the GTA VI launch, not ad spend, so it is largely decoupled from what drags XLC. Net macro pressure on this specific name ≈ Neutral. Consequence for the signal: because amplification needs both a ≥65 driver tailwind (it has one, 78) and a Tailwind macro pressure (it does not — Neutral), no horizon is amplified to STRONG BUY. The strong GTA VI driver is noted but the economy does not corroborate it.

Source: sector-map (GICS Communication Services) · Macro report 2026-07-30

7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Neutral — uptrend intact, but a poor fresh entry near highs into earnings
54
conf 58%

Timing is a genuine Neutral (54) — the higher-timeframe trend is up, but a new entry here is poor: the stock sits near its 52-week high into an earnings print. Crucially, this single timing score reads differently by horizon through the weighting: the timing-dominant Short (55%) is dragged to HOLD by the extended, event-blocked near-term entry, while the quality-dominant Long (55%) and balanced Medium ride the intact monthly/weekly/daily uptrend to BUY. Same number, different consequence — not a contradiction.

ComponentReadingScore
Multi-timeframe trend (30%)Monthly & weekly uptrend; daily strong uptrend (price > SMA50 234 > SMA200 230); hourly weakening; 15-min down (today −2%). Confluence bullish.~69
Risk-reward (20%)Price ~$242 = ~91% of the 52-wk range (high 265.94); ~+3.5% above SMA50; logical stop ~$216 is ~11% / ~3.7 ATR away — a wide stop / poor fresh entry near resistance.42
Relative strength+29% off the March low, near highs — a sector leader, outperforming (RS vs SPY / XLC positive; estimated).72
Macro overlay (10%, low sensitivity)Comm-Services Neutral for this idiosyncratic name.50
Sentiment (20%)Very bullish — rec. "Strong Buy" (1.17), 45 Buy / 0 Sell, near highs. Extreme one-sidedness is a mild contrarian caution.74
Catalyst cluster (20%)Q1 FY27 earnings 7 Aug (7 days) + GTA VI 19 Nov — clustered near-term event risk → reduce size.42

Confidence 58% — base 75, −15 for earnings within 14 days (binary event), −5 relative-strength ETF comp estimated. The near-term entry is the weak leg; the trend is not.

8

Economic Event Risk

High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

DateEventImpactForecastPreviousRelevant?Why
2026-08-07Take-Two Q1 FY2027 earningsHighEPS est $0.33 · rev est $1.40B✅ YesCompany-specific binary — first print before the GTA VI launch; caps timing confidence
2026-11-19GTA VI launch (PS5 / Xbox)Critical✅ YesThe dominant multi-quarter catalyst; a 4th delay is the primary bear trigger
rollingFOMC / CPI / jobsLow⚠ LowInteractive entertainment is low macro-sensitivity; TTWO trades on GTA VI, not the macro tape

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

DateEventActualForecastSurpriseImpact
2026-07-20Broad tape (Iran war / oil up)risk-off dayLow relevance — not a TTWO driver
2026-07-23Cloud-gaming strategy shifts (Amazon Luna / MS ad-tier)industry newsWatch item for the premium-unit model, not a near-term mover

The only high-impact, directly-relevant near-term event is Q1 FY2027 earnings on 7 Aug (7 days) — a binary print that caps short-term timing confidence and is the reason the next update is scheduled for 10 Aug. The franchise-defining catalyst is the GTA VI launch on 19 Nov. TTWO is a low-macro-sensitivity name, so CPI/FOMC/jobs are low-relevance here.

9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
TimeframeTrendDirectionRSIMACDKey S/RBreakoutVol
MonthlyUptrend ↑Bullish58+, hist −2.2S: 138.9 R: 264.8Resistance breakout0.95×
WeeklyUptrend ↑Bullish56+, risingS: 227.3 R: 265.9Resistance breakout0.92×
DailyStrong up ↑Bullish58+, risingS: 230.7 R: 265.9Resistance breakout1.29×
HourlyWeakening →Neutral42−, fallingS: 238.0 R: 250.9Support breakdown0.46×
15-minStrong down ↓Bearish48−, basingS: 238.0 R: 249.0Support breakdown0.35×
Confluence: Bullish · MTF Score 69

Higher timeframes are solidly bullish (monthly/weekly/daily all in uptrends, daily a strong uptrend above both the 50- and 200-day) — the primary trend is up. Intraday has rolled over today (−2%) as the stock pulls back from $247 into the 7-Aug earnings, a textbook short-term pause inside a larger uptrend. The pullback-buy zone to watch is SMA50 ~$234 and weekly support ~$227; a higher low there would open the Technical entry path.

10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.

6-month daily closes (28 Jan – 30 Jul 2026) with the 50-day SMA. The run from the ~$188 March low to the $265.94 July high, then the pullback to ~$242 into earnings.

11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.

Bull $330 (25%)

GTA VI ships on 19 Nov and smashes records — FY27 net bookings land nearer the bull models (~$10.65B, ~25%+ above the conservative guide), GTA Online VI becomes a perpetual RCS engine, and FY28 EPS beats ~$11–12. Re-rates toward the Street high ($368). Target ~$330 (+36%).

Base $285 (55%)

GTA VI ships ~on time with a strong, roughly in-line launch; FY27 bookings land at/above the $8.0–8.2B guide, FY28 EPS ~$10.5 at ~26×. Converges on the ~$288 analyst consensus. Target ~$285 (+18%). The probability-weighted centre of gravity.

Bear $188 (20%)

The primary trigger: a fourth delay of GTA VI into 2027, pushing the earnings step-change out a year and puncturing the pre-launch premium — or a launch that under-delivers / an $80 price backlash / Game-Pass-style monetisation pressure. De-rates toward the pre-run base near the 52-wk low. Target ~$188 (−22%).

Probability-weighted fair value ≈ $277 (0.25×330 + 0.55×285 + 0.20×188) — about +15% above the current $242, which is what carries Medium and Long to BUY while the near-term entry keeps Short at HOLD. The swing factor in every case is the 19 Nov GTA VI timing: on time underwrites Base/Bull, a delay is the Bear.

12

Entry / Exit Rules

Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open

Fundamental — not MET

Cheap-enough vs fair value with a live driver tailwind — but blocked right now by the framework's own 7-day earnings entry-blackout.
✅ Price $242 < fair value ~$285 (base)
⛔ No earnings within 7 calendar days — Q1 FY27 prints 7 Aug
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (78)

Technical — not MET

In an uptrend above the 50-day, but extended near 52-wk highs — no fresh >1.5×-volume breakout and not at support.
⛔ Daily close > SMA50 ($234) on >1.5× volume (above SMA50 but vol only 1.29×) OR a tested bounce off $227–234 with a higher low
✅ RSI 35–65 (58)
✅ MACD histogram positive ≥2 days (marginal)

Catalyst — not MET

No event resolved yet — the 7-Aug print is the next trigger.
· Post-earnings move >+5% within 24h
· Guidance raised or maintained (GTA VI date held)
· Volume >2× the 20-day average

Forecast: The Fundamental path opens on the first session after Q1 FY27 earnings (Mon 10 Aug), provided price holds below ~$285 fair value and guidance holds the 19-Nov GTA VI date — expect a Half-Size starter then. The Technical path opens on a pullback into the $227–234 (weekly support / SMA50) zone with a higher low, or a >1.5×-volume close over the $266 high. Note: the sanctioned half-size quality-starter (High-Quality, Fair, Medium & Long both BUY) was considered now and deliberately not fired — the 7-day earnings entry-blackout leaves 0 of 3 paths open (the ladder reads Wait), so issuing a starter into the print at the highs would contradict the mechanics. The honest read is buy-on-confirmation, not a starter today.

Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

⛔ Two daily closes below $216 (weekly support / below the June base)

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

⛔ GTA VI slips a 4th time past 19 Nov 2026 (catastrophic — fires alone)
⛔ FY27 net-bookings guide cut below $8.0B
⛔ Launch materially under-delivers OR Game-Pass-style monetisation erodes the premium model (competitive invalidation)

Profit-Target — not LIVE

⛔ Price into ~$288 (base/consensus) with RSI >70 and no fresh upgrade to earnings power

Forecast: Stop at $216 is ~11% below current and below both the 50- and 200-day — unlikely in the next few weeks absent a 4th delay or an earnings miss. The 7-Aug print is the near-term risk trigger; a delay-headline is the tail that would fire the thesis-invalidation exit.

Imagine you act at the current price of $242.17 · as of 31 Jul 2026

What if you bought now?

You are risking ~11% (to the $216 stop; the bear path runs to ~$188, −22%) to gain the base path to ~$285 (+18%) and bull ~$330 (+36%) as GTA VI lands on 19 Nov.

Buying now means buying extended near 52-week highs and into the 7-Aug print with 0 of 3 entry paths open. What you gain immediately: the ~+15% probability-weighted upside to ~$277 and the free optionality on a conservative FY27 guide. What you risk: a soft guide or — the real tail — a fourth delay. Read: waiting for the post-earnings Fundamental open or a pullback to $227–234 materially improves the deal — the edge is in the entry, not the thesis.

What if you sold now?

You are giving up ~+18% base upside to $285 (and the GTA VI optionality) to protect against the ~−22% bear path.

Standing aside forgoes the conservative-guide beat potential ($8.0–8.2B guide vs Street $9.3B / BMO $10.65B) and the GTA Online VI annuity. No exit rule is live — no stop hit, no thesis break, no profit-target. For a holder this is a hold / accumulate-on-confirmation zone, not a sell; the only mechanical reason to trim would be a spike into ~$288 with RSI >70.

13

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.

No portfolio allocation or role was specified, so position sizing is not computed. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry paths open) — the guidance is to watch the levels, not to size: the Fundamental path opens after the 7-Aug print, the Technical path on a pullback to $227–234. Volatility context: daily ATR ~$7.1 (~2.9% of price), beta ~0.96 (roughly market-like); the stock has swung ~40% peak-to-trough over the past year. If you later want sizing, provide your intended allocation and role.

14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
  "ticker": "TTWO",
  "date": "2026-07-31",
  "version": "v6",
  "brand": "",
  "company": "Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.",
  "currency": "USD",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:TTWO",
  "isin": "US8740541094",
  "api_ticker": "TTWO",
  "analysis_status": "starting",
  "finder_ticker": "TTWO",
  "finder_exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "user_context": {
    "horizon": null,
    "allocation_pct": null,
    "portfolio_role": null
  },
  "price_at_rating": 242.17,
  "signal_short": "HOLD",
  "signal_medium": "BUY",
  "signal_long": "BUY",
  "primary_signal": "BUY",
  "short_hold_reason": "full_hold",
  "short_cap_reason": "Quality-starter override considered (High-Q, Fair, Medium+Long BUY) but BLOCKED: the 7-day earnings entry-blackout (Q1 FY27, 7 Aug) leaves 0/3 entry paths open (Conviction Ladder = Wait). Buy on confirmation post-earnings / on a pullback to $227-234.",
  "short_entry_confirmed": false,
  "quality_score": 70,
  "lifecycle_stage": "growth",
  "quality_detail": {
    "industry_benchmark_name": "Net-Bookings Growth + Margin Inflection",
    "industry_benchmark_value": "FY27 bookings +~20% (GTA VI-led), margins pre-inflection",
    "industry_benchmark_score": 62,
    "moat_score": 66,
    "roic_percentile_vs_peers": null,
    "capital_allocation": 55,
    "management_skin_in_game": 45
  },
  "valuation_score": 57,
  "valuation_detail": {
    "fcf_yield": 1.0,
    "implied_growth_rate": 13.0,
    "consensus_growth_rate": 20.0,
    "historical_valuation_decile": 3,
    "ev_sales": 7.05
  },
  "warranted_multiple": 24,
  "actual_multiple": 25.5,
  "val_multiple_basis": "normalised/time-discounted forward P/E, blending FY27 stub-year ~35.7x and FY28 first-full-GTA-VI-year ~23.1x",
  "discount_rate_r": 9.0,
  "risk_free_10y": 4.45,
  "g_near": 11,
  "g_term": 3,
  "warranted_ratio": 1.06,
  "val_band": "fair",
  "timing_score": 54,
  "timing_detail": {
    "mtf_confluence": 69,
    "risk_reward_score": 42,
    "relative_strength_vs_spy": 8.0,
    "relative_strength_vs_sector": 10.0,
    "catalyst_clustering_score": 42,
    "dynamic_macro_weight": 0.1
  },
  "driver_score": 78,
  "driver_label": "Tailwind",
  "driver_amplifies": "eligible (>=65) but does NOT fire - econ pressure Neutral blocks amplification",
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": "n/a (loss-making trough; FY25 carried a ~$3.6B Zynga impairment)",
  "clean_pe": 25.5,
  "clean_peg": 2.4,
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
  "competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 48,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
  "overall_confidence": 58,
  "fair_value_est": 285,
  "stop_loss": 216,
  "target_price": 285,
  "scenario_base_target": 285,
  "scenario_bull_target": 330,
  "scenario_bear_target": 188,
  "entry_groups_met": 0,
  "entry_conviction": "Wait",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "gates_caution": [
    "Earnings Event Risk (7 Aug)",
    "Binary Event - GTA VI 19 Nov"
  ],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "analyst_consensus_target": 288.17,
  "analyst_target_high": 368,
  "analyst_target_low": 170,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 19.0,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 79,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 29,
  "fmp_rating": "D+",
  "fmp_overall_score": 1,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": null,
  "recent_downgrades_30d": null,
  "gta6_release_window": "2026-11-19 (locked Nov 2025, reaffirmed Jul 2026; fiscal Q3 FY2027)",
  "next_update_date": "2026-08-10",
  "next_update_basis": "earnings 2026-08-07 +1 trading day (GTA VI launch 19 Nov 2026 the larger catalyst)"
}
15

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
get_yahoo_quote / get_company_profile price $242.17, ISIN US8740541094, sector, beta 0.96, targets
get_income_statement (6q) FY26 quarterly GAAP revenue/margins; note FMP "revenue" is GAAP net revenue, not net bookings
get_financial_ratios / get_ratings_snapshot TTM ratios; FMP rating D+ (backward GAAP, trough-distorted)
get_price_target_consensus / _summary / get_grades_consensus consensus $288, 29 analysts, 45 Buy / 12 Hold / 0 Sell
get_analyst_estimates forward EPS FY27 ~$6.78 / FY28 ~$10 — the normalised-multiple basis
get_multi_timeframe_analysis / get_stock_prices 5-timeframe technicals + 127 daily bars for the chart
get_earnings_calendar Q1 FY27 earnings 7 Aug (est EPS $0.33)
Web research GTA VI date 19 Nov 2026 (verified, reaffirmed Jul 2026); FY26 net bookings $6.72B; FY27 guide $8.0-8.2B; EA take-private; peer multiples
get_economic_calendar not pulled — interactive entertainment is low macro-sensitivity; §8 built from the earnings/launch calendar, no fabricated macro forecasts
MacroDriver-state-20260730 regime + sector map for §6; explicit UST10Y not exposed this run — ~4.45% policy-tight 10Y used for r
Impact on scores: High confidence on price, technicals, consensus and the GTA VI catalyst. The main modelling judgement is the valuation basis: trailing GAAP is a loss (pre-launch trough), so Valuation is anchored on normalised post-GTA-VI earnings — a legitimate but forward-dependent choice, hence the Fair (not Attractive) call and the 66% valuation confidence. Relative-strength ETF comparison is estimated (−5).
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.