Take-Two Interactive is one of the world's largest video-game publishers, built around three labels: Rockstar Games (Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption), 2K (NBA 2K, WWE 2K, Borderlands, Civilization) and its Zynga-anchored mobile arm (Words With Friends, Toon Blast, Match Factory). Its core business is developing and selling blockbuster interactive-entertainment titles and monetising them long after launch through recurrent consumer spending (in-game currency, add-ons, mobile). What sets it apart is the strength of a handful of franchises — Grand Theft Auto and NBA 2K are cultural fixtures with pricing power and multi-year engagement tails few rivals can match. For a reader: think of it as an IP-owner whose value swings on the release cadence of a small number of enormous games, with the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (due 19 November 2026) the single most anticipated event in the industry's history and the dominant driver of its earnings over the next three years.
TTWO is a genuinely high-quality franchise owner and the sector regime is a tailwind, so Medium and Long carry a plain BUY. But on the disciplined warranted-multiple anchor it trades ~23% above fair value (Full band) — that blocks any STRONG-BUY amplification, and it means there is no valuation discount to reward a buyer today. The Conviction Ladder therefore reads Wait (§12): BUY-rated to own, but no entry edge — accumulate on a pullback, not at range highs. No Do-Not-Buy trigger fires: the multiple is Full, not deep-expensive, and TTWO is not in the AI-concentration cohort that would arm Trigger 2b.
Lifecycle: Growth (pre-inflection on a franchise catalyst). TTWO is scored on the growth/interactive-entertainment lens, not mature-company earnings. The right top-line KPI is net bookings (recognised bookings adjusted for deferred content), not GAAP revenue — management guided FY27 net bookings of $8.0–$8.2B (FY26 ended Mar-2026 GAAP revenue ~$6.66B TTM), the step-up driven by GTA VI. GAAP earnings are a net loss (TTM EPS ~−$1.61) because of heavy amortisation of Zynga acquired intangibles and game-development cost deferrals — this is a lifecycle artefact, not operating distress (see §4 for the normalised earnings decomposition). We therefore do NOT score P/E on trailing GAAP EPS.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Net-bookings trajectory | FY27 guide $8.0–$8.2B vs ~$6.7B revenue base — a franchise-led step-change; strongest top-line inflection in the peer group | 82 |
| Gross margin (TTM) | 57.2% — healthy for a AAA publisher; expands post-launch as high-margin GTA content scales | 70 |
| Cash generation | FCF positive but thin pre-launch (TTM FCF/sh ~$2.43, P/FCF ~99x) — the launch is the FCF-inflection event; not yet a cash machine | 52 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net-cash bias (debt/mkt-cap 0.06, cash/sh ~$10.7), current ratio 1.24 — sound | 74 |
| Revenue durability / diversification | Concentrated on a few tent-pole franchises (GTA, NBA 2K) — high quality but launch-cadence-dependent; mobile (Zynga) adds recurrent ballast | 66 |
No single sector composite fits a pre-launch publisher. The relevant benchmark is franchise IP strength paired with the net-bookings growth trajectory: GTA and NBA 2K are top-tier, durable, pricing-powerful IP, and the FY27 bookings guide implies ~+20% growth off the base. Benchmark score: 78/100 — top-quartile IP, mid-quartile monetisation breadth.
Direct rivals: Electronic Arts (EA — sports/live-service), Microsoft/Activision-Blizzard (Call of Duty, Xbox), Sony (first-party PlayStation), Ubisoft (open-world, structurally weak), Tencent (mobile + stakes across the industry), and the engagement-share attackers Roblox and Epic/Fortnite. Share/engagement trajectory: TTWO's premium-console IP is defensible and its GTA/NBA 2K share is stable-to-rising into the launch, but the moat-erosion vector is competition for time and spend — free-to-play live-service (Fortnite, Roblox) and mobile capture a growing share of player hours, which is why Switching Costs and Cost Advantage score in the 50s rather than the 80s. GTA VI is the counter: a generational release that pulls engagement back. This read feeds the Switching-Cost / Cost-Advantage sub-scores and propagates to the §11 Bear (live-service engagement loss) and §12 thesis-invalidation.
| Rival | Vector | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|
| EA | Sports live-service (FC, Madden) vs NBA 2K/WWE 2K | Stable — parallel franchises, limited direct overlap |
| Microsoft / Activision | Console platform + Call of Duty shooter share | Rising platform power (Game Pass) — a structural share threat |
| Roblox / Epic (Fortnite) | Engagement / time-and-spend, esp. younger cohorts | Rising — the key erosion vector for switching costs |
| Tencent / Sony / Ubisoft | Mobile scale; first-party; open-world | Mixed — Ubisoft weak, Tencent/Sony strong-stable |
ROIC & capital allocation: ROIC is depressed pre-launch (GAAP operating income near zero) — the Zynga acquisition weighed on returns and the market is now underwriting the post-GTA-VI reset. Capital allocation is mixed: no dividend/large buyback (cash conserved for the launch), and the Zynga deal is still being digested. Management (CEO Strauss Zelnick, long-tenured) has a credible AAA-execution record. Net Quality 72 — clearly a high-quality IP franchise (≥ 65) on moat + bookings trajectory, held below the 80s by the GAAP-loss/thin-FCF lifecycle position and the live-service engagement threat.
Basis: forward (normalised post-GTA-VI) P/E — trailing GAAP P/E is meaningless. TTWO carries a TTM GAAP net loss (reported P/E −148x is not usable), so we anchor on the first full GTA VI year. FY26 (ended Mar-2026) is pre-launch; FY27 is a stub year (only ~4 months of the 19-Nov-2026 launch), so its 35.7x P/E is a trough-earnings artefact — anchoring on it would call the name "expensive" at trough EPS, the mirror of the cyclical trap the framework warns against. FY28 ($9.99 EPS) is the first full launch year and the correct normalised base.
| Multiple (clean) | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| FY28-forward P/E (EPS $9.99) — the anchor | 24.0x | Below the 26x guardrail; 1.23x warranted → Full |
| FY27-forward P/E (EPS $6.72) — stub year | 35.7x | Trough-earnings artefact (only ~4mo of GTA VI) — not the anchor |
| FY29-forward P/E (EPS $10.80) | 22.2x | Fair-ish 3yr out, discounted |
| EV/Sales (TTM revenue basis) | ~6.9x | Rich vs the base; falls sharply on the FY27 bookings step |
| FCF yield | ~1.0% | Very expensive on cash today — launch is the FCF-inflection |
r = 9.0% (10-Y 4.5% [macro 2026-07-14] + 4.5% ERP + 0% risk add-on, Business Quality ≥ 65). g_near = 6% (disciplined: 0.75× the FY28→FY31 consensus EPS CAGR of ~6.4% ≈ 4.8%, rounded up modestly for the franchise step-change — NOT the 15% launch-step, which belongs to the FY26→FY28 ramp and would double-count if paired with the post-launch FY28 base). g_term = 3%. Two-stage warranted P/E ≈ 19.5x (well below the 26x Communication-Services guardrail). Actual clean FY28-forward multiple 24.0x ÷ warranted 19.5x = 1.23 → Full band. Warranted fair value ≈ 19.5x × $9.99 ≈ $195 — below the $239.57 price. So the stock is ~23% above our disciplined fair value: not cheap, not ceiling-expensive. A Full-band name is not STRONG-BUY-eligible, and there is no valuation discount to reward a buyer here.
Beyond the priced core, three under-valued options ride along (a tilt of ~+3–8, already reflected in the 44 — never a re-rating of a cheap core): (1) a durable GTA VI recurrent-spend / GTA Online tail — the market prices the launch, not necessarily a multi-year live-service annuity; (2) catalog / sequel cadence (Red Dead, BioShock, the next NBA 2K cycles) that the consolidated multiple under-weights; and (3) mobile (Zynga) monetisation upside. Each is un-priced because it is non-core or beyond consensus; none is a base case. Net: the core justifies roughly our ~$195 warranted fair value of the $239.57 price, and this optionality is the reason to keep watching for a pullback — not a reason the stock is cheap today.
Implied-growth read (narrative colour): at $239.57 the market is paying ~24x the first full launch year and effectively underwriting the full FY27–FY29 ramp. Our disciplined anchor sits ~23% below that price — the price embeds slightly more good news than the fundamentals warrant, which is why this is BUY-to-own but Wait-to-enter, not a discount.
| Relative cross-check | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst consensus target | $289.86 (high $300 / low $280, 5 recent) | ~21% upside — narrow spread (high conviction), but a market/launch view above our conservative anchor |
| Grades consensus | 45 Buy / 12 Hold / 0 Sell (bullish ~79%) | Solid Buy consensus — note it is a lagging, near-consensus signal |
| Own-history decile | Upper-mid 52-wk range (~66% of $187.63–$265.94 band) | Upper-mid of range |
| FMP financial-health rating | D+ (score 1) | Expected artefact of GAAP-loss inputs — not a quality read; our Quality lens overrides |
Honest divergence: the ~21% consensus upside is a sell-side market/launch view; our warranted anchor is deliberately more conservative and lands ~23% below price. The anchor is supreme for the band (Full); the relative lenses order the name within it. Valuation score 44.
Primary driver: discretionary consumer spend on interactive entertainment, dominated for TTWO by the Grand Theft Auto VI release — the single biggest franchise launch in gaming, dated 19 November 2026 (reconfirmed on the FY26 earnings call, 21 May 2026; underpins the FY27 $8.0–$8.2B net-bookings guide). Secondary: live-service / recurrent-consumer-spend engagement (GTA Online, NBA 2K, mobile).
| Horizon | Assessment | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (12–24m) | Consumer gaming spend resilient; TTWO shares +71% over 3yr on the pre-launch re-rate. Bookings base steady. | 75 |
| Current state | Pre-order tracking cited as "robust" (B. Riley, 10 Jul); consumer discretionary broadly firm. The catalyst is dated and confirmed, not speculative. But it has NOT yet occurred — execution/timing risk is live. | 72 |
| Forward (6–12m) | Nov-2026 launch is the inflection; consensus underwrites the FY27–FY29 bookings ramp. Principal forward risk is a slip (a prior GTA VI delay already happened) or a launch that undershoots the guide. | 70 |
GTA VI has slipped before. A further delay past Nov-2026, or a launch that fails to convert pre-order buzz into the guided $8.0–$8.2B, would puncture the pre-launch re-rating — this is the live risk that keeps the driver a Tailwind (72) rather than a Strong Tailwind, and it feeds the §11 Bear directly.
Amplification role: at 72 the driver is a Tailwind and, with the sector economy also a Tailwind, it would ordinarily be eligible to lift the base BUY → STRONG BUY. But STRONG-BUY amplification is blocked because the name sits in the Valuation Anchor's Full band (ratio ≥ 1.20) — you do not back the truck up on a richly-priced name, however strong the driver. So Medium/Long stay a plain BUY, and Short is separately capped at HOLD (§12). The driver does not change the base signal or the fundamental pillar scores.
GICS Communication Services → XLC. The latest macro report (2026-07-14) scores XLC Outperform across all three horizons (Short O / Med O / Long O) — real-money inflow into the sector, a Tailwind. TTWO trend-follows this: buying it aligns with where the macro map says capital is rotating. Conviction 76 reflects the O/O/O consistency. The pressure is a symmetric Tailwind for the amplification test — which is present but moot here because the Full valuation blocks STRONG-BUY.
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-14
The higher timeframes are constructive (monthly/weekly/daily uptrend, price above the 200-DMA — which carries ~80% of the trend weight) but the near-term tape has rolled over intraday and there is no volume-confirmed entry trigger. TTWO sits in the upper-middle of its 52-week range, ~66% of the $187.63–$265.94 band (~10% below the high) — extended after a strong run, a poor location for a fresh entry even as the trend is up.
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | 57 | +, hist fading | S 195 / R 265 | Resistance breakout |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | 55 | +, rising | S 227 / R 245 | Resistance breakout |
| Daily | Strong uptrend ↑ | 54 | −, hist falling | S 231 / R 246 | Above 50/200-DMA |
| Hourly | Strong downtrend ↓ | 43 | − | S 236 / R 246 | Support breakdown |
| 15-min | Strong downtrend ↓ | 37 | − | S 238 / R 243 | Support breakdown |
Confluence: higher-timeframe structure is up (MTF trend ≈ 66), but the daily MACD histogram is negative (−1.46) and intraday is breaking down — a consolidation/pullback within a larger uptrend. Volume is light (0.5–0.55x), so neither the breakout nor the breakdown is confirmed. Relative strength: +20% 30-day / +28% 90-day — a clear leader vs the S&P and XLC, but that leadership sits at range highs.
The trend earns an Improving pillar (58), but for a fresh short-term entry the location is unfavourable: price is extended near resistance ($246–$266), the reachable support/stop is ~$231 (50-DMA) then ~$216, and there is no volume-confirmed reclaim or tested-bounce trigger. Neither the Technical nor the Catalyst entry group is met (§12) — so the short-horizon BUY is capped to HOLD ("buy on confirmation"). The poor entry location is captured in the risk-reward sub-signal and the Wait conviction ladder, not by crushing the trend pillar.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | TTWO Q1 FY27 earnings | High | First bookings print into the launch | — | ✅ Yes | Company-specific catalyst; >14d out so not this run's scheduler / gate |
| 2026-11-19 | GTA VI launch | Very High | $8.0–$8.2B FY27 bookings hinge on it | — | ✅ Yes | The dominant driver event; beyond the 14-day window |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC rate decision | Medium | Hold expected | — | ⚠️ Low | Comm-Services is low macro-sensitivity; not a scheduling trigger |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | US Retail Sales MoM (Jun) | 0.5% | 0.5% | Inline | Neutral — discretionary spend steady, supports the consumer driver |
| 2026-07-15 | Core PPI YoY (Jun) | 4.7% | 5.2% | Below (cooler) | Mildly risk-on for growth multiples |
TTWO has low macro-sensitivity (Communication Services). The only high-impact dated events are company-specific — Q1 FY27 earnings (2026-08-07) and the GTA VI launch (2026-11-19) — both beyond the 14-day scheduling window this run. No macro release is a scheduling trigger for a low-sensitivity name.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Bullish | 57 | +, fading | S 195 / R 265 | Resistance breakout | 0.51x |
| Weekly | Uptrend | Bullish | 55 | +, rising | S 227 / R 245 | Resistance breakout | 0.55x |
| Daily | Strong uptrend | Bullish | 54 | −, falling | S 231 / R 246 | Above 50/200-DMA | 0.54x |
| Hourly | Strong downtrend | Bearish | 43 | − | S 236 / R 246 | Support breakdown | — |
| 15-min | Strong downtrend | Bearish | 37 | − | S 238 / R 243 | Support breakdown | — |
| Confluence: Mostly Bullish (higher-TF) / near-term consolidation · MTF Score 66 | |||||||
Monthly, weekly and daily trends are up and price holds above the 200-DMA, but the daily MACD histogram is negative and the intraday timeframes have broken down — a pullback/consolidation within a larger uptrend. Light volume means no confirmation either way. The reclaim to watch for a technical entry is a daily close back above the recent swing highs ($246–$251) on >1.5x volume; the buy-the-dip level is the 50-DMA zone ~$231.
TTWO daily — consolidating near range highs after a strong pre-launch run; 50-DMA ~$232 is the pullback-entry zone, $266 the resistance cap, $290 the consensus target (a market view above our ~$195 warranted fair value).
GTA VI ships on time on 19 Nov 2026 and converts the "robust" pre-order buzz into a launch that meets or beats the $8.0–$8.2B FY27 bookings guide, with a durable GTA Online recurrent-spend tail. FY28 EPS trends toward the high end (~$12+); the market pays ~26–28x the first full-year number and estimates are revised up post-launch. Consensus high target $300 is exceeded. (A market/launch outcome above our disciplined ~$195 warranted fair value.)
GTA VI launches on schedule and lands roughly in line with the guide — a blockbuster, but the outcome the market has largely underwritten. The stock grinds toward the ~$290 consensus over 6–12 months as the launch de-risks. This is the market's fair-value view; our own disciplined anchor (~$195) is more conservative, which is exactly why the pillar reads Full and the entry ladder reads Wait — you are paid for launch de-risking, not a discount.
TTWO-specific downside: a GTA VI slip past Nov-2026 (it has slipped before), OR a launch that undershoots the $8.0–$8.2B guide, OR live-service engagement continuing to leak to Fortnite/Roblox so the recurrent tail disappoints. Any of these punctures the pre-launch re-rating; the name mean-reverts toward the low-$180s 52-wk support and toward our ~$195 warranted fair. This is idiosyncratic — TTWO is NOT in the AI-concentration cohort, so no index-level de-rating tail is inherited.
0.25×$320 + 0.55×$270 + 0.20×$175 = ~$263 — roughly +10% from $239.57 on the market/launch view. Note the two anchors deliberately diverge: the scenario-weighted market view (~$263) sits above our conservative warranted fair (~$195). The skew matters — the base case is largely priced and the bear is a real ~27% drawdown — which is why the name is BUY-to-own but the entry ladder says Wait for a pullback rather than chase at range highs.
Forecast: Fundamental group: UNLIKELY without a ~20%+ pullback (to ~$195 warranted fair) or a further estimate step-up. Technical group: MODERATE on a ~1–3 week horizon — either a >1.5x-volume reclaim of $246–$251 (needs a volume catalyst; light 0.5x tape today) or a tested bounce off the $231 50-DMA on a pullback; the 50-DMA is only ~3% below and rising, so a dip-buy trigger is the more reachable path and would open a Half-Size entry. Catalyst group: DATE-DEPENDENT — first live check is the 2026-08-07 Q1 print (a >+5% move on a raised/maintained bookings guide would arm it), then the 19-Nov launch. Until one of these fires, the short horizon stays capped at HOLD despite the BUY-rated medium/long thesis.
Forecast: Stop-loss ($216): UNLIKELY in the next 4–6 weeks — 10% below price and below the 50-DMA; would need an earnings/launch shock. Thesis-invalidation: the live watch item is any GTA VI delay headline (the framework treats a confirmed slip as a hard exit); nothing flags it today, but it is the dominant risk and re-checked each refresh. Profit-target: would require a ~21% move to $290 into overbought — not near-term.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
{
"ticker": "TTWO",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:TTWO",
"isin": "US8740541094",
"api_ticker": "TTWO",
"finder_ticker": "TTWO",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"section": "Communication Services",
"country_table": "US",
"date": "2026-07-16",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "starting",
"user_context": {
"horizon": null,
"allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null
},
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"company": "Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.",
"currency": "USD",
"price_at_rating": 239.57,
"lifecycle_stage": "growth",
"sector": "Communication Services \u2014 Interactive Entertainment (Video Games)",
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"composite_short": 52,
"composite_medium": 60,
"composite_long": 63,
"quality_score": 72,
"quality_confidence": 72,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "Franchise IP strength + net-bookings growth trajectory",
"industry_benchmark_value": "FY27 bookings guide $8.0-8.2B (~+20% off ~$6.7B base)",
"industry_benchmark_score": 78,
"moat_score": 68,
"gross_margin_ttm": 0.5723,
"net_margin_ttm": -0.0448,
"ebitda_margin_ttm": 0.1779,
"operating_margin_ttm": -0.0088,
"revenue_ttm_usd": 6656400000,
"net_bookings_guide_fy27_usd": "8.0-8.2B",
"share_count_growth_2yr_pct": 7.5,
"note": "GAAP-unprofitable by lifecycle (Zynga acquired-intangible amortisation + dev-cost deferrals), NOT distress. Scored on the growth/entertainment lens: bookings + IP moat, not mature-company P/E."
},
"valuation_score": 44,
"valuation_confidence": 78,
"val_band": "full",
"val_multiple_basis": "clean forward first-full-year (FY28 post-GTA-VI) P/E \u2014 trailing GAAP P/E meaningless (net loss); FY27 is a stub year and not used as the anchor",
"actual_multiple": 24.0,
"warranted_multiple": 19.5,
"warranted_ratio": 1.23,
"discount_rate_r": 9.0,
"risk_free_10y": 4.5,
"g_near": 6,
"g_term": 3,
"sector_guardrail_pe": 26,
"clean_pe": 24.0,
"clean_peg": "~1.2 forward (FY28 P/E 24x vs disciplined ~6% post-launch g; trailing PEG meaningless)",
"valuation_detail": {
"reported_pe_ttm": -148.3,
"forward_pe_fy27_stub": 35.7,
"forward_pe_fy28_anchor": 24.0,
"forward_pe_fy29": 22.2,
"ev_sales_ttm": 6.9,
"fcf_yield": 1.0,
"warranted_fair_value_usd": 195,
"price_vs_fair_pct_above": 23,
"historical_valuation_decile": 9,
"boundary_note": "FULL (not Expensive): clean first-full-year (FY28) forward P/E 24.0x ($239.57 / consensus FY28 EPS $9.99) is BELOW the 26x Communication-Services guardrail line (guardrail arm does not fire) AND 1.23x the ~19.5x warranted multiple (two-stage DCF; r 9.0% = 4.5% 10-Y + 4.5% ERP + 0% add-on for BQ>=65; disciplined post-launch g_near 6% = 0.75x the ~6.4% FY28->FY31 EPS CAGR, NOT the 15% FY26->FY28 launch step, which would double-count; g_term 3%). Warranted fair value ~$195, BELOW the $239.57 price => ~23% above fair. Full band (1.20-1.40) => no Gate 3, but STRONG-BUY amplification blocked. FY27's 35.7x is a stub-year trough-earnings artefact (only ~4mo of GTA VI) and is NOT the anchor. GTA VI success is treated as market/scenario upside + \u00a74 embedded optionality (tilt already in the 44), NOT a re-rating of a cheap core."
},
"embedded_optionality_note": "\u00a74 Embedded Optionality (a tilt, +3-8, baked into the 44): (1) GTA VI recurrent-spend / GTA Online tail beyond the base bookings guide \u2014 the market prices the launch, not necessarily a multi-year live-service annuity; (2) catalog/sequel cadence (Red Dead, Bioshock, next NBA 2K cycles) the consolidated multiple under-weights; (3) mobile (Zynga) monetisation upside. Real but not a base case; it cushions downside and is the reason to keep watching, NOT a reason the stock is cheap (it is ~23% above warranted fair).",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": "n/a \u2014 GAAP net LOSS; TTM net loss driven by acquired-intangible amortisation + a ~$3.6B FY25-Q4 one-off impairment/other in the 8Q window",
"earnings_quality_note": "TTWO is GAAP-unprofitable, NOT via non-operating mark-to-market gains but via heavy amortisation of Zynga acquired intangibles + game-dev cost deferrals (a lifecycle drag, the OPPOSITE of the mega-cap AI inflation trap). Scoring on trailing GAAP P/E is meaningless; the anchor uses forward/normalised (first-full-year FY28) earnings, stated explicitly. clean_pe here = the forward FY28 P/E, not a trailing normalised number.",
"timing_score": 58,
"timing_confidence": 62,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence_score": 66,
"mtf_tool_confluence": "bullish (higher-TF) / intraday breakdown",
"trend_monthly": "uptrend",
"trend_weekly": "uptrend",
"trend_daily": "strong_uptrend",
"trend_hourly": "strong_downtrend",
"trend_15min": "strong_downtrend",
"risk_reward_score": 50,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "+20% 30d / +28% 90d \u2014 clear leader, but at range highs",
"relative_strength_vs_sector": "outperforming XLC (sector O/O/O)",
"rsi_daily": 54.5,
"macd_daily_hist": -1.46,
"sma50_daily": 231.71,
"sma200_daily": 230.82,
"atr_daily": 8.3,
"range_position_52wk_pct": 66,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 65,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.1,
"macro_sensitivity": "Low (Communication Services / interactive entertainment)",
"note": "Pillar 58 (Improving) reflects the higher-TF uptrend (~80% of trend weight); the poor entry LOCATION is captured in risk_reward (50), the short cap, and the Wait ladder \u2014 not double-counted by crushing the trend pillar."
},
"driver_score": 72,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"driver_confidence": 66,
"driver_detail": {
"primary_driver": "Consumer interactive-entertainment spend + the GTA VI release catalyst (19 Nov 2026)",
"secondary_driver": "Live-service / recurrent-consumer-spend engagement (GTA Online, NBA 2K, mobile)",
"historical": 75,
"current": 72,
"forward": 70,
"amplification_eligible": true,
"amplification_applied": false,
"amplification_blocked_reason": "STRONG-BUY amplification blocked because the name sits in the Valuation Anchor's Full band (ratio 1.23 >= 1.20). Driver Tailwind + econ Tailwind would otherwise lift the base BUY to STRONG BUY on Med/Long; the full valuation caps it at plain BUY. (Short is separately capped at HOLD by the technical-confirmation cap.)",
"catalyst_timing_risk": "GTA VI has slipped before; a further delay past Nov-2026 or a launch undershooting the $8.0-8.2B guide is the dominant live risk \u2014 keeps the driver a Tailwind (72) not Strong Tailwind, and drives the \u00a711 Bear.",
"thesis_invalidation_floor": "A confirmed GTA VI slip past Nov-2026, a cut to the FY27 net-bookings guide, or sustained live-service engagement loss to Fortnite/Roblox."
},
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 76,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_pressure_short": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_pressure_medium": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_pressure_long": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"economic_alignment_confidence": 70,
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-14",
"macro_sector_signal": "XLC s:O m:O l:O",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable-to-rising into the GTA VI launch on premium-console IP; but engagement/time-and-spend share leaking to Fortnite/Roblox live-service",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"moat_score": 68,
"overall_confidence": 62,
"fair_value_est": 195.0,
"stop_loss": 216.0,
"support_levels": [
231.71,
227.25,
216.34,
206.0,
187.63
],
"resistance_levels": [
245.07,
251.34,
260.04,
265.94,
289.86
],
"target_price": 289.86,
"analyst_consensus_target": 289.86,
"analyst_target_high": 300,
"analyst_target_low": 280,
"analyst_target_median": 289,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 21.0,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 78.9,
"analyst_coverage_count": 57,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"fmp_rating": "D+",
"fmp_overall_score": 1,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Gate 3 \u2014 Valuation Ceiling: NOT triggered but full. FY28 forward P/E 24.0x is below the 26x guardrail and 1.23x its ~19.5x warranted multiple (Full band, ratio < 1.40). No cap on the signal, but STRONG-BUY amplification is blocked for a Full-band name.",
"Gate 4 \u2014 Dilution: share count +7.5% over 2yr (~3.7%/yr, Zynga stock + SBC) is BELOW the 5%/yr arm, so not triggered; flagged given the SBC load and the large (but transparent, lifecycle) GAAP-bookings gap."
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"dnb_trigger_2_check": "NOT fired. Arm (a) deep-expensive needs >= 2.0x warranted or >= 1.5x guardrail \u2014 actual is 1.23x warranted, below both. Arm (b) needs a live de-rating catalyst \u2014 TTWO is NOT in the AI-concentration cohort (interactive entertainment, not levered to AI capex/monetisation; FMP's 'Technology' tag is ignored), and no Structural Business Model Threat is live. No DNB.",
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_cap_reason": "Short-horizon technical-confirmation cap: neither the Technical group (no >1.5x-volume reclaim of $246-251 and not at support; daily MACD hist -1.46 falling; intraday breaking down) NOR the Catalyst group (GTA VI 19 Nov is ~4mo out \u2014 not a met post-event trigger; no +5% post-earnings move) is met. A short BUY is not permitted on the Fundamental path alone (and here even Fundamental is unmet, price above fair value). The Short base signal is BUY (like Med/Long) but is capped to HOLD \u2014 'buy on confirmation.' This cap is the ACTUAL binding constraint on the short horizon (Med/Long are unaffected and stay BUY).",
"scenario_bull_target": 320,
"scenario_base_target": 270,
"scenario_bear_target": 175,
"scenario_probs": {
"bull": 25,
"base": 55,
"bear": 20
},
"scenario_prob_weighted_fv": 263,
"scenario_note": "Scenario targets are the MARKET/launch view and legitimately sit above our disciplined warranted fair value (~$195); they are not reconciled to it \u2014 the divergence (conservative anchor vs sell-side/market) is the honest reason the pillar is Full and the entry ladder is Wait.",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-30",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-30",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (no impactful event inside the 14-day window: Q1 FY27 earnings 2026-08-07 and GTA VI launch 2026-11-19 are both beyond it; Communication Services is low macro-sensitivity so the 29 Jul FOMC is not a scheduling trigger). The 14-day refresh runs first and re-schedules once earnings enters the window.",
"last_updated_human": "Jul 16, 2026",
"new_add_delta": "NEW watchlist add (B4b bench promotion). analysis_status 'starting'; finder_ticker TTWO, finder_exchange '\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ'. No prior calibration \u2014 no signal delta."
}