Lifecycle & sector: Mature (Industrials — Building Products / HVAC & Transport Refrigeration). Mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, high and rising margins, prodigious cash generation, with a secular demand tailwind from building decarbonisation and AI data-center cooling. Scored on the Industrials profile: ROIC vs WACC, operating margin, backlog, cash conversion, balance sheet.
Earnings quality (step 7b): Clean. TTM net income $2.90B vs operating income $3.92B; non-operating income is only ~1% of net income (in fact net income is dragged down by net interest expense and small discontinued-ops losses, not inflated up). An operating-earnings “clean” P/E (~34x) is slightly better than the reported 37x — there is no mark-to-market or one-off distortion to normalise. Quality and Valuation are scored on figures that already reflect real operating economics.
| Sub-signal | Value | Sector context | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | +6.0% YoY (Q1’26); FY26 consensus +9.7% to $23.4B | vs industrial median ~3-5% — healthy, demand-led | 72 |
| Profitability vs peers | Operating margin 18.2%; gross 35.9% | Industrial median 10-15%; vs CARR 7.2%, JCI 13.6%, LII 19.5% — top-tier | 85 |
| Cash generation | FCF ~$3.16B; FCF margin 14.6%; FCF/NI 109% | Converts >100% of earnings to cash — excellent | 85 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net debt/EBITDA ~0.8x; interest coverage 17.4x; D/E 0.54 | vs industrial threshold <3.0x — very strong (current ratio 1.10 is the one soft spot) | 78 |
Moat score = average = 66/100 — a solid, durable moat, not an impregnable one. Switching-cost and cost-advantage sub-scores are derived from the Competitive Environment read below.
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory vs TT | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrier Global (CARR) | Direct merchant rival (NA #1 ~17% vs TT ~10%) | TT stable / slightly gaining in applied & commercial | Price competition in unitary/light-commercial; CARR weaker margins limit its premium push |
| Daikin Industries | Global #1 (~15% global share, ~$36B rev) | TT flat-to-losing globally; defends NA | Cost advantage — Daikin’s global scale & VRF/residential breadth out-scale TT ex-NA |
| Johnson Controls (JCI) | Direct in commercial HVAC + controls; bought Silent-Aire (data-center cooling) | TT stable; JCI is a live data-center contender | Switching-cost decay in the new data-center niche TT is courting |
| Lennox (LII) | NA residential / light-commercial | TT stable | Residential unitary price competition; LII higher-margin but narrower |
Net effect on the moat: → Switching Costs trimmed to 68 (Silent-Aire/hyperscaler direct-buy risk in data-center; sticky in applied/service) and Cost Advantage held at 60 (Daikin global scale caps it). Pricing Power intact at 78. competitive_threat_level = moderate; share trajectory = stable.
The whole signal hinges here. Three of five pillars (Timing, Driver, Economy) are supportive; the only thing holding TT at HOLD is price. Two peer-independent lenses — the stock’s own 5-year valuation decile (near the top) and FCF yield (2.9%, squarely in the Expensive band) — keep it Expensive regardless of where peers trade, so this is a deliberate sub-40 call, not a rounding decision.
| Lens (weight) | Reading | Verdict | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector median (25%) | TT ~32x fwd P/E (37x TTM) vs LII 24x, JCI 26x, CARR 46x (depressed E) TTM. Peers have re-rated, but TT is still the richest on P/E. | Premium | 34 |
| Own 5-yr decile (20%) | TTM P/E ~37x near the top of its ~18-37x five-year range (decile 8-9); price ~87% up its 52-wk range ($348-503). | Expensive | 26 |
| Growth-adjusted PEG (15%) | Forward PEG 2.64 on ~13-14% EPS growth (FY26 $14.91 → FY27 $17.02). | Rich | 30 |
| Reverse DCF (25%) | At $483 / EV $110B on ~$3.16B FCF, the market implies ~13-14% long-run FCF growth — roughly in line with consensus EPS growth. | Fairly-to-richly priced | 41 |
| Analyst target (10%) | Price $483 vs consensus $525 (+8.6%), median $540 (+11.7%), high $585, low $450. | Modest upside | 55 |
| Grades consensus (5%) | Hold — 0 strong-buy / 11 buy / 14 hold / 1 sell (bullish 42%). | Neutral | 32 |
Primary driver: demand for energy-efficient HVAC and thermal management — the intersection of building decarbonisation/electrification and the AI data-center cooling buildout. Secondary: residential HVAC (housing/rates-sensitive), currently a drag.
| Horizon (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Commercial HVAC + data-center cooling demand strong/accelerating over 12-24mo; backlog built to record levels. | 75 |
| Current (50%) | AI data-center thermal demand booming; commercial construction solid — offset by weak residential (May housing starts -17.7% surprise, soft on higher-for-longer rates). | 72 |
| Forward (25%) | AI capex + A2L refrigerant transition + electrification favour scaled leaders; residential stays soft while rates are higher-for-longer. Macro ‘Energy Transition & Electrification’ driver dominance Moderate (3/5). | 70 |
Driver score 72 — Tailwind (65-79 band): eligible to lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY. But it does not change the three fundamental pillar scores, and amplification only fires on a base BUY/SELL — the base signal here is HOLD on all three horizons, so the tailwind stays latent. Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained roll-over in non-residential construction and data-center capex (driver turning to a headwind) is what breaks the case. Driver confidence 70%.
TT is not a macro watchlist name, so it maps to the Industrials sector signal. The latest MacroDriver report rates XLI Outperform / Outperform / Strong-Outperform (Short/Med/Long) — a strong, lengthening sector tailwind. The dominant regime is Soft-Landing / Reacceleration co-lead (hawkish Fed, higher-for-longer), which favours capex/industrial cyclicals even as it pressures rate-sensitive residential. Pressure = Tailwind (anchored on the Medium horizon). Stance = Trend-Following; conviction 76. The Tailwind would help amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY, but the base signal is HOLD on every horizon, so no amplification fires — the supportive economy is context, not a lift.
Source: sector-map (GICS Industrials → XLI) · Macro report 2026-06-20
Risk-reward (daily focus): Price $483 sits ~4% under the all-time high $503.47 after a ~+24% six-month run — an extended location, not a fresh entry. Nearest support is the ~$452-460 recent-swing cluster (early-June low $439); a logical stop ~$435 is ~3.5 ATR away (daily ATR $13.85 = 2.9% of price). Upside to median target $540 is +11.7%, to consensus $525 +8.6% — roughly a 1:1 to 1.3:1 reward-to-stop. Proximity to the ATH resistance is a -15 entry penalty. Risk-reward sub-score ~50.
| Component (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | All five timeframes uptrend/strong-uptrend, all flag a resistance breakout — ‘strongly bullish’ confluence. | 80 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | Extended near ATH; ~1:1-1.3:1 to the median target vs the ~$435 stop. | 50 |
| Relative strength (RS) | +24% over 6mo, leading the tape (XLI in favour; SPY ~flat the past month). Near 52-wk highs (87th pct). | 75 |
| Macro overlay (15%, Industrials = medium) | Fed on hold/hawkish, VIX moderate, sector rotating in. | 62 |
| Sentiment (18%) | All recent analyst actions ‘maintain’ (no upgrades/downgrades in 30d); grades at Hold; data-center narrative constructive. | 52 |
| Catalysts (17%) | No major catalyst within 30 days (next earnings ~late-Jul) — a calm calendar. | 72 |
Composite 65 — the trend is genuinely strong (which is why this is ‘constructive’, not weak), but the entry location is poor: you would be chasing into resistance after a big run. Timing confidence 72% (no earnings inside 14 days; benign VIX).
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Core PCE MoM (May) | High | +0.3% | +0.2% | ⚠ Medium | Sticky-core print = regime/rate test; feeds rate-sensitive residential HVAC demand |
| 2026-07-01 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | High | 52.5 | 54.0 | ✅ Yes | Direct industrial-demand gauge for TT’s commercial/applied book |
| 2026-06-30 | CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) | High | — | 93.1 | ⚠ Medium | Residential HVAC replacement demand signal |
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment (Jun) | High | +70k / 4.5% | +172k / 4.3% | ⚠ Medium | Construction & capex demand backdrop |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Housing Starts (May) | 1.177M | 1.43M | -17.7% below | Negative for residential HVAC; commercial/data-center unaffected |
| 2026-06-17 | Retail Sales MoM (May) | +0.9% | +0.5% | +80% above | Resilient consumer — mild positive |
| 2026-06-17 | Fed Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | In line (hawkish dots) | Higher-for-longer pressures residential; neutral for commercial |
Industrials carry medium macro sensitivity, so no single release is a WAIT-override here. The relevant tape is mixed: a weak housing-starts print confirms the residential drag, while resilient retail sales and an expansionary ISM (54) support the commercial/industrial side TT actually leans on. ISM Manufacturing on Jul 1 is the most TT-relevant read.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 62 | +43.4, hist -0.6 | S 458 / R 503 | Resist b/o | 0.66x |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 62 | +12.6, rising | S 408 / R 503 | Resist b/o | 0.75x |
| Daily | Strong Up ↑ | Bullish | 60 | +2.9, rising | S 452 / R 503 | Resist b/o | 1.09x |
| Hourly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 57 | +2.7, fading | S 471 / R 492 | Resist b/o | — |
| 15-min | Strong Up ↑ | Bullish | 56 | flat ~0 | S 479 / R 492 | Resist b/o | — |
| Confluence: Strongly Bullish · MTF Score 80 | |||||||
Every timeframe points the same way and each shows a resistance breakout — a textbook all-timeframe uptrend. The single caution is the monthly MACD histogram just rolling slightly negative and hourly momentum fading, consistent with a stock that has run hard and is now bumping the $503 ATH. There is no pullback-to-support setup on offer right now; the constructive entry is a controlled dip into the $452-460 zone (or, better, the $440-448 support/fair-value confluence).
6-month daily close. TT broke out to new highs in late-Apr (~$503 ATH), consolidated, and is pressing the ATH again at $483. Green = fair-value/support entry zone ($440-448); red = ATH resistance; blue = analyst median target.
AI data-center cooling demand accelerates and TT wins outsized share; margins expand further; the premium multiple holds. Matches the Street high target.
Mid-single-digit organic growth + buybacks deliver ~13-14% EPS growth; the multiple compresses modestly from 32x. Lands on consensus/median.
Residential drag deepens and commercial slows on higher-for-longer rates; the multiple de-rates toward peers (~24x). Competitive trigger: JCI’s Silent-Aire and Daikin’s scale pressure TT’s share/margin in the data-center and global markets it is courting.
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ ~$505 — close to today’s $483, i.e. the price already discounts most of the base case. The asymmetry is unattractive at $483 (capped upside to a crowded target vs a -17% de-rating tail); it improves materially on a dip into the $440-450 zone.
Forecast: Fundamental — opens on a pullback to ~$445 (-8%): at the current ~$0/week drift near the highs this is catalyst-dependent (a market wobble or a soft residential print), Confidence: Low-Moderate in 4-8 weeks. Technical — the pullback-to-support branch (bounce off $440-452 with a higher low) is the reachable early entry and would likely coincide with the Fundamental path; the breakout branch needs a >1.5× volume close to new highs (currently 1.09×), catalyst-dependent. Catalyst — resolves at late-Jul earnings. Net: no path is open today (Wait); the cleanest opening is a dip into $440-452, which would satisfy both Fundamental and Technical at once and flip the medium/long base to BUY → STRONG BUY (driver + economy both Tailwind).
Forecast: No exit trigger is live. The $435 stop is ~10% below spot and below both the 50-day ($468) and 200-day ($431) — unlikely in 4-6 weeks absent a sector-wide selloff or a guidance miss at late-Jul earnings, which is the one dated risk that could gap price toward support. Profit-trim only engages near $540 on overbought RSI.
What you’re risking: you are buying ~4% under the ATH after a +24% run, with no entry rule met (Fundamental shut, Technical extended) — a poor location. Hard-stop downside ~$435 (-10%); bear case ~$400 (-17%) on a multiple de-rate. Path risk: late-Jul earnings.
What you’re gaining: immediate exposure to base/bull upside (+9-21%), a ~0.8% dividend + ongoing buyback compounding, and the largely-priced data-center optionality. But the reward-to-stop is only ~1:1, and waiting for a dip into $440-452 turns a Wait into a Full/Over-Size entry (Fundamental + Technical both fire) and a STRONG-BUY signal. Read: acting now is a HOLD/accumulate-on-weakness, not a buy — the better deal is to wait for the entry zone.
What you’re giving up: the base path to $525-540, the bull option to $585, the dividend and buyback compounding, and a best-in-class compounder you’d have to re-buy higher. You would also be selling above fair value (~$445), which is not a value reason to sell.
What you’re protecting: capital against the -17% bear path if residential weakens and the multiple de-rates. But no exit rule is live — no stop hit, no thesis break, profit-target not reached. Read: there is no mechanical reason to sell; this is a hold/accumulate-on-weakness zone, not an exit.
No risk budget or portfolio role was provided, so position sizing is not computed as a portfolio %. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry paths met) — there is no entry edge at $483, so the size guidance is to wait for a path to open rather than size in here.
Volatility context: daily ATR $13.85 = 2.9% of price; beta 1.21 (a 5% position behaves like ~6% in market-risk terms); 52-week range $348-503 (price at the 87th percentile). Entry plan to watch: stagger into the $440-452 support/fair-value zone over 2-3 tranches once a higher low forms; a fill there converts the signal to Full/Over-Size and BUY→STRONG-BUY. Specify your allocation and role for a sized range.
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"ticker": "TT",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:TT",
"api_ticker": "TT",
"isin": "IE00BK9ZQ967",
"date": "2026-06-20",
"version": "v6",
"finder_ticker": "TT",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"price_at_rating": 483.4,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"quality_score": 82,
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "ROIC vs WACC + Backlog (Industrials)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "ROIC ~26% vs WACC ~8-9%",
"industry_benchmark_score": 88,
"moat_score": 66,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 90,
"capital_allocation": 80,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_score": 38,
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 2.86,
"fwd_pe": 32.4,
"ttm_pe": 37.2,
"fwd_peg": 2.64,
"implied_growth_rate": 13.5,
"consensus_growth_rate": 14.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 9
},
"timing_score": 65,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 80,
"risk_reward_score": 50,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "strong (+24% 6mo, leading)",
"relative_strength_vs_sector": "in-line-to-leading (XLI O)",
"catalyst_clustering_score": 72,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15
},
"driver_score": 72,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 76,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-20",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 1.3,
"clean_pe": 34.0,
"clean_peg": 2.6,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"overall_confidence": 72,
"fair_value_est": 445,
"stop_loss": 435,
"target_price": 540,
"analyst_consensus_target": 525,
"analyst_target_high": 585,
"analyst_target_low": 450,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 8.6,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Hold",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 42,
"analyst_coverage_count": 26,
"fmp_rating": "B+",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Valuation Ceiling (price full; not breached)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-07-06",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (rolled past Jul-4 weekend; next earnings ~late-Jul beyond window)"
}
First report for NYSE:TT (new Stock-Finder promotion, fit 74). Net read: an excellent, clean-earnings industrial compounder (Quality 82, ROIC ~26%) trading at a full price (Valuation 38; ~32x fwd P/E, FCF yield 2.9%) — HOLD across all three horizons (“great business, wrong price”). Driver (72) and economy (XLI O/O/SO) are both Tailwinds that would lift it to STRONG BUY on a pullback, but cannot amplify a HOLD today. Entry ladder: Wait (0/3); the $440-452 zone is the trade. No gates tripped; next update 2026-07-06.