← Back to DonatienInvestment Report archive →

NYSE:TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC)

Technology Semiconductors — Advanced-Node Foundry Emerging-Market Equity (Taiwan)
NYSE ADR (1 ADR = 5 TWSE ordinary shares) · operating company in Hsinchu, Taiwan · ISIN US8740391003 · CEO: C. C. Wei · Mkt Cap: $2.21T · Lifecycle: Growth (dominant, cash-generative)
$425.83
−$15.57 (−3.53%) on the day
Jun 16, 2026 · Signal v6
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1-3 mo) HOLD 58 60% Great business but extended/overbought near the 52-week high; risk-off macro + FOMC/earnings ahead
Medium-term (6-12 mo) BUY 67 62% Quality + AI driver offset a full valuation; near-term tech is still a mild macro headwind, so no amplification
Long-term (3-5 yr) STRONG BUY 74 65% Dominant moat + AI secular driver (88) + long-horizon tech/EM tailwind → BUY amplified to STRONG BUY
Override chain per horizon: Base Matrix → Amplification → Hard Gates → Do-Not-Buy. Hard-gate state: CAUTION — Taiwan/China geopolitical binary tail risk flagged (not fired); valuation extended near 52-week high; Q2 earnings approaching.
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard 2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status 3Pillar Detail: Business Quality 4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness 5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers 6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment 7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing 8Economic Event Risk 9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 10Price Chart (6-Month Daily) 11Scenario Summary 12Entry / Exit Rules 13Position Sizing Context 14Calibration Snapshot 15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — Business Quality, Valuation Attractiveness, Entry/Exit Timing, Underlying Drivers, and Economic Alignment — each 0–100 with confidence. The base BUY/HOLD/SELL comes from the three fundamental pillars (Quality/Valuation/Timing) via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify it toward STRONG BUY / STRONG SELL.

Business Quality

88
Best-in-class foundry: 62% gross margin, 36% ROE, net cash
Confidence: 82%

Valuation Attractiveness

57
Fair — cheap vs AI peers / forward EPS, rich on trailing & FCF
Confidence: 78%

Entry/Exit Timing

55
Strong uptrend but overbought near highs; rolling over intraday
Confidence: 68%

Underlying Drivers

88
AI/HPC + advanced-node foundry cycle — Strong Tailwind
Confidence: 70% · STRONG-eligible

Economic Alignment

55
Contrarian short · Trend-Following long · Headwind→Tailwind
Confidence: 70% · Macro report 2026-06-13
2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — financial distress, earnings-event risk, valuation ceiling, dilution/accounting, and regulatory/binary events. Any triggered gate caps the signal regardless of composite score; a Do-Not-Buy trigger overrides everything. State: CAUTION — no gate fired, but the Taiwan/China geopolitical tail and valuation extension are flagged.
✅
Financial Distress
Net cash, interest coverage 176×, current ratio 2.49, D/E 0.17. Clear.
⚠️
Earnings Event Risk
Q2 2026 earnings expected ~mid-July (est.) — outside 14 days now. Monitor.
✅
Valuation Ceiling
Primary multiple (forward P/E 21.7×) not extreme; price far below the $600–700 high targets. Does not fire.
✅
Dilution / Accounting
Share count flat (~5.19B ADR-equiv), negligible SBC, clean GAAP. Clear.
⚠️
Regulatory / Binary (Taiwan)
China-Taiwan invasion/blockade is a genuine >20% binary tail — persistent & structural, not a dated ruling, so flagged as caution, not fired.
✅
Severe Driver Collapse
Driver score 88 (Strong Tailwind) — nowhere near the ≤15 collapse threshold. Clear.
Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fired. Leverage+rising-rates — N/A (net cash). Valuation-at-extreme — disarmed: the multiple sits high in its range but growth is accelerating (revenue +35% YoY, EPS +58%). Negative earnings revisions — none (estimates rising). Insider-selling spike — none observed. Structural threat — the Taiwan tail is a known, persistent risk, not a newly-emerged un-priced threat, so it is not invoked as an Analyst Override.
3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

Why Quality scored 88: sub-signals vs the Semiconductors profile (cycle-aware), competitive moat, ROIC & capital allocation, and the industry benchmark. Scored relative to sector norms, with cycle context (peak vs trough).
Business Quality — Pillar Score
Among the highest-quality businesses on the watchlist: a near-monopoly in leading-edge foundry with 62% gross margins (66% last quarter), 36% ROE, ~47% net margin, and a net-cash balance sheet. The only quality nuance is cyclicality — current margins are near cycle-peak.
88
Confidence 82%
Sub-SignalValuevs BenchmarkRead
Revenue trajectory+35.1% YoY (Q1'26, TWD)Far above semis medianAccelerating, AI-led
Gross margin (TTM / latest Q)61.9% / 66.2%>60% = "strong" (fabless bar); fab-model exceptionalExpanding; near cycle-peak
Operating margin53.2%>30% = strongElite
ROE / ROA36.2% / 17.3%ROIC >15% = strongTop-decile capital returns
Cash generation (FCF)FCF margin modestHeavy capex ($40B+/yr) consumes ~58% of operating cashReinvestment, not weakness
Balance sheetNet cash; D/E 0.17; coverage 176×PristineDownturn-proof
Capacity utilisation / book-to-billAdvanced node >90%; CoWoS sold out>80% = healthyDemand outstrips supply

Competitive Moat — 82 / 100

Pricing Power

90
Raising leading-edge wafer prices; no real alternative

Network Effects

60
Design ecosystem (OIP), but limited two-sided network

Switching Costs

85
PDKs, multi-year qualification, tape-out cost

Cost Advantage

90
Scale + yield/learning-curve leadership

Intangibles

85
Process IP; ~67% leading-edge share, >90% at advanced node
Industry Benchmark — Gross Margin + Capacity Utilisation: 92/100 (STRONG). Gross margin 62% TTM / 66% latest quarter (threshold >55%); advanced-node utilisation >90% with CoWoS advanced-packaging sold out (threshold >80%). Both well above the "strong" band. Cycle caveat: these are near cycle-peak readings — a demand digestion would pull margins toward the high-50s, still excellent but off the peak.
ROIC & Capital Allocation — 86/100. ROIC well above cost of capital and stable/rising; disciplined capex tied to customer pre-commitments; a steadily-growing dividend (payout ~26%) plus a flat share count (no dilution). FMP financial-health rating: B+ (overall 3) — ROE and ROA score the maximum 5, dragged only by P/E (2) and P/B (1), i.e. the model agrees the business is excellent and the price is full. That cross-check lines up exactly with the Quality-high / Valuation-fair split below.
4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Why Valuation scored 57: cycle-adjusted multiples vs semis peers and TSMC's own history, reverse-DCF implied growth, FCF-yield anchor, analyst consensus targets & grades, and the FMP ratings cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Fair, at the Attractive/Fair boundary. Genuinely cheap versus the other AI mega-caps and on forward earnings (21.7× / PEG ~1.3); rich on trailing P/E, price-to-book and FCF yield, and trading at ~90% of its 52-week range. The forward lens, not the trailing one, is what keeps this from scoring lower.
57
Confidence 78%
LensReadingScore band
Sector / peer median (fwd P/E)21.7× vs NVDA/AVGO/AMD at 25–35×Attractive vs peers
Own historical decile (trailing P/E)~35× — high end of TSMC's 5-yr ~13–35× rangeExpensive on its own history
Growth-adjusted (PEG)~1.3 (fwd); 0.68 trailingFair / reasonable
Reverse-DCF implied growth~low-teens priced in vs 35% rev / 58% EPS actualsMarket under-pricing trajectory
FCF yield (anchor)~1.6% (heavy capex supercycle)Expensive on cash
Price / Book10.6×Rich
Dividend yield~0.9% (payout ~26%)Growth, not income
Reverse-DCF read. At $425.83 the ADR trades on ~21.7× forward EPS (~$19.66). For a near-monopoly compounding revenue 35% with expanding margins, that multiple implies the market is discounting only low-teens long-run growth — i.e. it is not extrapolating the current AI-led trajectory. That is the bull's valuation argument: you are paying a market-average growth multiple for a clearly-above-average grower.
Analyst consensus & grades. 18-analyst mean target ~$468, median ~$465–472 (Yahoo) → price is ~9% below median = meaningful upside. FMP shows a wider, more bullish spread (median $465, consensus $520, high $700) skewed by one fresh $700 print; the high-vs-low gap ($354–$700) is wide, so conviction is trimmed. Grades consensus: 18 Buy / 7 Hold / 0 Sell (Buy, ~72% bullish); Yahoo's recommendation reads "strong buy" (1.47). Recent grade actions are all "maintain" — no fresh upgrades or downgrades.
Embedded Optionality / Free Upside. The reverse-DCF prices the in-production business; these are the call options you largely get for free at $425.83: Treat as a tilt (+a few points, already in the 57), not a reason the core is cheap — the in-production business is fair-to-full.
5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100 across historical / current / forward. A context pillar: a tailwind ≥65 can lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY (with a supportive economy); it does not change the fundamental pillar scores.
Primary Driver
AI / HPC + advanced-node foundry demand cycle
88
STRONG TAILWIND
HorizonWeightScoreEvidence
Historical (12–24m)25%85AI accelerator demand drove revenue from 673B → 1,134B TWD/qtr; margins expanded through the period
Current state50%92Advanced-node utilisation >90%; CoWoS packaging sold out; hyperscaler capex at records; N3/N2 ramping
Forward (6–12m)25%82Consensus sees continued AI capex through 2026–27 + N2 ramp; some digestion risk; smartphone/auto recovering modestly
Amplification role: at 88 (Strong Tailwind, ≥65) the driver is eligible to lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY on any horizon where Economic Alignment's pressure is also a Tailwind — which is the case on the long horizon only. It does not alter the base BUY/HOLD/SELL or the three fundamental pillar scores.

Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained cut in hyperscaler AI-capex guidance combined with advanced-node utilisation falling below ~80% would break the tailwind. The offsetting tail is geopolitical (Taiwan), handled in §2 as a caution.
6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

Whether the latest DonatienInvestment macro report is a tailwind or headwind for this name, as a Tailwind/Neutral/Headwind pressure plus a Trend-Following or Contrarian stance. Its pressure is the second amplifier — a Tailwind enables STRONG BUY, a Headwind enables STRONG SELL.
Input (macro report 2026-06-13)ShortMediumLong
Technology sector (XLK)UnderperformUnderperformOutperform
Emerging-Market equities (EEM — Taiwan)UnderperformNeutralOutperform
Resulting pressureHeadwindHeadwind (mild)Tailwind
Stance: Contrarian near-term · Trend-Following long-term · Conviction 55. The macro regime is "Stagflation (oil shock + hawkish Fed)" — risk-off, with capital rotating to materials/gold/energy and away from high-multiple tech and EM in the near term (QQQ short "Strong Underperform"). Buying TSM today therefore fights the near-term macro (contrarian), but aligns with its long-horizon call that tech, EM and the AI compute-demand story recover (XLK & EEM long "Outperform").

Staleness caveat: the macro report (2026-06-13) predates the 2026-06-15 Iran-US peace deal, on which Asian tech surged — so the near-term risk-off framing may already be easing. The long-horizon signals (which drive the long-horizon Tailwind and the STRONG BUY) are unaffected. The Short = HOLD call below rests on technical extension, not on this macro headwind, so it holds either way.
7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

Why Timing scored 55: multi-timeframe trend, risk-reward framing, relative strength, macro overlay (at semis' medium sensitivity), sentiment from grade actions, and the 0–12 month catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Constructive primary trend (monthly/weekly/daily all up) but extended and overbought — monthly RSI 79, ~90% of the 52-week range, and rolling over intraday (hourly & 15-min downtrends; −3.5% on the day). For the short horizon this classifies as Neutral timing, which is why the short-term read is HOLD rather than BUY.
55
Confidence 68%
ComponentWeightScoreRead
MTF trend30%70Higher TFs bullish, intraday bearish — mostly bullish but pulling back
Risk-reward20%47Near 52-wk high; support far below (SMA50 $400, swing $384); wide stop
Macro overlay (medium sens.)15%58Hawkish Fed risk-off near-term; AI rotation supportive longer
Sentiment18%55Grades all "maintain"; recommendation "strong buy"; estimates rising
Catalysts17%65One clear catalyst (Q2 earnings ~mid-July); FOMC Jun 17
Relative strength: +106% over 52 weeks, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the semis group — leadership, but also a marker of how extended the move is. Why Short = HOLD: at Q88 / V57 / T55 the raw Decision Matrix (High + Fair + Improving) reads BUY on all three horizons. For the short horizon, Timing is 55% of the weight and the technical picture (overbought monthly RSI, 90% of range, intraday breakdown, only 1 of 5 entry criteria met) classifies as Neutral rather than Improving — pulling the Timing-dominated short read down into HOLD. The medium and long horizons, where Quality and the AI driver carry more weight, stay BUY / STRONG BUY.
8

Economic Event Risk

High-impact US macro releases in the next ~2 weeks plus recent surprises. Semiconductors carry medium macro sensitivity (PMI/manufacturing, trade/export-controls; growth-stock rate sensitivity), so the WAIT-override does not apply, but a hawkish FOMC into a risk-off tape is the near-term swing factor.
DateEventImpactForecast / PrevRelevant?
Jun 17FOMC rate decision + projections (Warsh's first)HighHold 3.75% (hawkish)✅ Growth-stock multiples
Jun 17US Retail Sales (May)Med+0.5% / +0.5%⚠️ Demand read
Jun 25Core PCE (May)High+0.2% / +0.2%✅ Rate path
Jul 1ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)High52.5 / 54.0✅ Semis demand proxy
Jul 2Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun)High70K / 172K⚠️ Macro regime
Recent surprises (last 7 days): May core CPI MoM came in cool at +0.2% (vs +0.3%), but headline CPI YoY rose to 4.2% and PPI was hot (+1.1%) — sticky inflation keeps the Fed hawkish. Consumer sentiment ticked up (48.9). Net: a stagflationary mix that argues for near-term caution on high-multiple names — consistent with the Short = HOLD. The Jun 17 FOMC tomorrow is the immediate swing event; a hawkish surprise pressures growth/EM, a dovish tilt (the Warsh "go-ahead" thesis in the press) would be a near-term tailwind.
9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status from monthly down to 15-min, with the confluence verdict. Higher-timeframe levels are the strongest.
TimeframeTrendRSIMACDKey S / RBreakoutVol
MonthlyUptrend ↑79.1 (OB)+, risingS: $133 · R: $226+Resistance breakout0.6×
WeeklyUptrend ↑73.6 (OB)+, flatS: $319 · R: $450Resistance breakout0.4×
DailyStrong Up ↑↑59.4−, flatS: $400 / $384 · R: $438 / $450Resistance breakout0.9×
HourlyDowntrend ↓40.9−, fallingS: $417 · R: $443nonelow
15-minDowntrend ↓43.2−, basingS: $425 · R: $433Support breakdownlow
ConfluenceMostly Bullish — MTF Score ≈ 70. Higher timeframes solidly up; intraday rolling over.
Classic higher-TF-bullish + lower-TF-pullback pattern: monthly/weekly/daily uptrends with hourly and 15-min turning down — a short-term pullback inside a larger uptrend. Both monthly and weekly RSI are overbought (79 / 74), so the pullback has room. The high-probability accumulation zone is the daily SMA20–SMA50 band (~$400–$420); the line in the sand is the $384 swing, then the $332 200-day.
10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

Daily structure with key moving averages and levels. Visual companion to §9 — the pullback, the support band, and the primary uptrend at a glance.
Level typePriceNote
Stop / 200-day$384 / $332Swing-low support; daily SMA200 $332 is the deeper floor
Support band$400–$420Daily SMA50 $400, SMA20 $420 — accumulation zone
Current$425.83Just above the support band, −3.5% on the day
Resistance / 52-wk high$438 / $450.16Prior highs — the cap to break for continuation
Analyst median target~$465–472~9% above current
11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month paths with triggers and probability weights. Stress-tests the AI-driver thesis against the cyclical and geopolitical tails.

Bull · 30% · ~$570 (+34%)

Q2/Q3 guidance raised; N2 + CoWoS ramp ahead of plan; gross margin holds >62%; AI capex re-accelerates. Multiple re-rates toward the AI-peer band. Target approaches the $600 analyst high.

Base · 50% · ~$480 (+13%)

Continued AI-led growth; ~22–24× forward multiple holds; earnings compound into the price. Lands around the analyst median ($465–472) with modest upside.

Bear · 20% · ~$345 (−19%)

AI-capex digestion / cyclical pause; risk-off + strong USD compresses EM/tech multiples; or a Taiwan geopolitical scare. Price retraces toward the $332 200-day. The tail (invasion/blockade) is larger but low-probability.
Probability-weighted 12-month expectation ≈ $467 (0.30·570 + 0.50·480 + 0.20·345), ~+10% from $425.83 — squarely the analyst-median zone, with the asymmetry skewed to the upside if AI capex holds and to a sharp (low-odds) drawdown on the Taiwan tail.
12

Entry / Exit Rules

Mechanical conditions for entry and exit. Entry criteria met: 1 of 5. Exit conditions live: 0 of 3.

Entry Rules — 1 / 5 met

MET Rule 1 (Value): Price < fair value $470 AND no earnings within 7 days AND driver ≥50 → all true at $425.83.
WAIT Rule 2 (Buy-the-dip): pullback into the $400–$420 SMA20/50 band with monthly/weekly uptrend intact and daily RSI 35–65 → price not yet in the zone.
WAIT Rule 3 (Momentum): daily close > SMA20 ($420) on volume >1.5× AND MACD histogram positive ≥2 days → volume only 0.9×, daily MACD histogram negative.
WAIT Rule 4 (Not overbought): monthly & weekly RSI < 70 → currently 79 / 74 (overbought).
WAIT Rule 5 (Event clarity): after FOMC (Jun 17) and Q2 earnings (~mid-July) with guidance maintained/raised → events still ahead.

Exit Rules — 0 / 3 live

CLEAR Stop-loss: close below $384 support for 2 consecutive days → not triggered ($425.83).
CLEAR Thesis invalidation: FY guidance cut AND revenue decelerates below sector median AND a hard gate fires → guidance strong, none triggered.
CLEAR Profit-take / trim: price reaches ~$465–472 median AND RSI > 70 AND quality hasn't improved to justify it → not reached.
Imagine you act at the current price $425.83 · as of Jun 16, 2026

What if you bought now?

You'd be risking ~$42 (−9.8%) to the hard stop to gain ~$54 (+12.7%) to the base target.
  • Risking: downside to stop $384 (−9.8%); bear case $345 (−19%); plus — entry rules NOT yet met: buying overbought, above the $400–420 entry zone, ahead of FOMC and Q2 earnings.
  • Gaining: base $480 (+12.7%) · bull $570 (+33.9%); plus the small dividend and the N2/CoWoS embedded optionality you'd own for free.
  • Net: risk-reward ≈ 1.3:1 to base, ~3.5:1 to bull — assessment only: a great business at a full near-term price; waiting for the $400–420 dip or a post-earnings confirmation improves the entry.

What if you sold now?

You'd be giving up base-case upside to ~$480 (+13%) to protect against the ~$345 bear drawdown (−19%).
  • Giving up: upside to $480 (+13%) and the long-run AI-compounding; selling slightly below fair value $470.
  • Protecting: capital if the bear case ($345) or a Taiwan scare plays out. Exit rules currently triggered? None.
  • Net: no mechanical reason to sell — this is a hold/accumulate zone, not a distribution one.
13

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative framework only — no allocation or portfolio role was specified for this batch run, so no position size is prescribed.
Risk per share to the $384 stop is ~$42 (~9.8%), or ~2.4× the daily ATR ($17.35) — a relatively wide stop, consistent with buying near highs. As a single-catalyst name with one clear event (Q2 earnings) inside 30 days, the catalyst calendar is calm enough for a normal position, but the overbought extension argues for scaling in (e.g. into the $400–420 zone) rather than a full entry at the high. The Taiwan tail is the reason this is typically held as a diversified semis/EM exposure rather than an outsized single-name bet. None of this is advice — size to your own plan and risk budget.
14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, confidence, key level and signal override — saved alongside this report as calibration-TSM-20260616-1703.json for the next run.
{
  "exchange_ticker": "NYSE:TSM", "isin": "US8740391003", "currency": "USD",
  "security": "NYSE ADR (1 ADR = 5 TWSE ordinary shares); operating company Taiwan",
  "price": 425.83, "asof": "2026-06-16", "market_cap_usd": 2208558778400,
  "scores": { "quality": 88, "valuation": 57, "timing": 55, "driver": 88, "econ_alignment": 55 },
  "confidence": { "quality": 82, "valuation": 78, "timing": 68, "driver": 70, "econ": 70, "overall": 68 },
  "signals": { "short": "HOLD (58)", "medium": "BUY (67)", "long": "STRONG BUY (74)" },
  "amplification": { "long": "BUY->STRONG BUY (driver 88 Tailwind + long pressure Tailwind)" },
  "hard_gate_state": "caution", "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "entry": "1/5", "exit": "0/3",
  "key_levels": { "fair_value": 470, "stop": 384, "support": [400,384,332], "resistance": [438,450.16],
                  "median_target": 467, "bull": 570, "base": 480, "bear": 345 },
  "driver": "AI/HPC + advanced-node foundry (Strong Tailwind 88)",
  "econ_alignment": "Contrarian short / Trend-Following long; Headwind->Tailwind; macro 2026-06-13",
  "next_update_date": "2026-07-17", "next_check_date": "2026-07-17",
  "next_update_basis": "Re-rate after Q2 2026 earnings (~mid-July est.) + AI-capex guidance; post-FOMC/PCE macro read",
  "analysis_status": "on-going", "finder_ticker": "TSM", "finder_exchange": "US NYSE",
  "section": "Emerging-Market Equities", "focus_qualifies": false
}
15

Data Sources & Methodology

Full audit trail of every data source used, with OK / partial indicators and any confidence haircuts. Per the design system, this lives at the bottom of the report.
Data Source Status
✓
get_company_profile / get_stock_snapshot — price $425.83, mkt cap $2.21T, ADR confirmed
✓
get_financial_ratios — margins, ROE, leverage, P/E, FCF
✓
get_income_statement (8q) — revenue/margin trajectory (TWD)
✓
get_price_target_consensus / _summary — targets (wide spread, conviction trimmed)
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades — 18 Buy / 7 Hold; all "maintain"
✓
get_analyst_estimates — FY26+ revenue/EPS path
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis — intraday available (5 timeframes)
✓
get_yahoo_quote — USD/ADR cross-check, ROE 36%, fwd P/E 21.7
✓
get_economic_calendar / get_stock_news — FOMC Jun 17; Iran-US peace deal Jun 15
✓
get_ratings_snapshot — FMP B+ (ROE/ROA 5, P/E 2, P/B 1)
⚠
get_earnings_calendar — returned no rows; Q2 date estimated ~mid-July
⚠
Macro report (Economic Alignment) — 2026-06-13, predates Jun-15 Iran deal; caveated in §6
Impact on scores: Data coverage is strong. Two haircuts: (1) Timing/catalyst confidence reflects an estimated Q2 earnings date — robust to any mid-July date, so the signal is safe; (2) Economic Alignment is built on a macro report 3 days stale on a material geopolitical event, so its near-term Headwind framing is treated as a basis and caveated. Neither moves the per-horizon ladder. Data-basis note: financials report in TWD on an ADR-equivalent share base (~5.19B units × 5 = ~25.93B ordinary shares); market cap $2.21T verified internally consistent — no stale-share-count trap.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.