DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
T-Mobile US, Inc.
T-Mobile US is the second-largest wireless carrier in the United States, serving roughly 109 million connections across postpaid, prepaid (Metro by T-Mobile) and wholesale under its “Un-carrier” brand. Its core business is selling monthly mobile voice and data plans and, increasingly, home broadband delivered over its 5G network (fixed-wireless access, or FWA). What sets it apart is the deepest bank of mid-band 5G spectrum in the country — inherited and expanded through the 2020 Sprint merger — which gives it a structural network-capacity and cost advantage rivals are still trying to match, and which has made it the industry’s postpaid share-gainer with the lowest customer churn. For a reader: think of it as the challenger-turned-leader in US wireless, now throwing off large and growing free cash flow that funds heavy buybacks and a rising dividend. It is majority-controlled by Germany’s Deutsche Telekom.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | HOLD | 50 | 60% | downtrend caps near-term entry |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | BUY | 64 | 62% | cheap after derate + share gains |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | BUY | 68 | 65% | quality compounder, FWA optionality |
Next update: 2026-07-23 — Q2 2026 earnings (~23 Jul); FOMC 29 Jul secondary
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.
Business Quality
78
strong
conf 78%
Valuation Attractiveness
70
attractive
conf 72%
Entry/Exit Timing
38
weak (downtrend)
conf 65%
Underlying Drivers
62
mild tailwind
conf 62%
Economic Alignment
64
Trend-Following
conf 60%
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅Financial Distress
Profitable and highly cash-generative: EBITDA margin 30.8%, FCF/share $14.21, interest coverage 4.9x. Leverage elevated (net debt/EBITDA ~2.5x, D/E 2.1x, FMP debt score 1/5) but normal for telecom and comfortably serviced.
✅Valuation Extreme
Attractive/Fair edge: actual÷warranted ≈ 0.80 (clean TTM P/E 18.5x vs warranted 23.1x), fwd P/E ~17x. Well below the 26x Comm-Services guardrail. FCF/EV 5.1% and EV/EBITDA ~11x TTM (fwd ~8.7x) both corroborate.
✅Liquidity
Mega-cap ($192B), ADV ~5.8M shares. No liquidity constraint.
⚠️Technical Breakdown
All three primary timeframes (monthly/weekly/daily) in downtrends; price below SMA50 ($186.67) and SMA200 ($204.05); weekly support breakdown. A sizing/timing caution for near-term entries — not a distress trigger.
⚠️Earnings Proximity
Q2 2026 report ~23 Jul (~3 weeks out) — the next binary. Outside the 7-day entry-gate window but building; the report is the most likely catalyst to break the downtrend either way.
⚠️Competitive Disruption
SpaceX Starlink direct-to-cell moving toward standalone US DTC wireless, plus cable MVNOs (Comcast/Charter) and renewed VZ/AT&T price competition, are a live sector overhang (drove the 2026 derate: VZ −7%, AT&T 52-wk low). A §11 bear / §12 thesis-invalidation input, not company-specific distress.
No gate triggered. Two live cautions — an active downtrend and the Starlink/price-war overhang — argue for scaling in on technical confirmation rather than a full-size entry today.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
Best-in-class US wireless — share-gainer, lowest churn, strong FCF; only leverage and a moderate (decaying) switching-cost moat hold it back.
Lifecycle: Mature / Cash-generative. T-Mobile is a profitable, sub-15%-revenue-growth carrier throwing off large free cash flow — scored on FCF, ROE/ROIC, margins and telecom KPIs (churn, ARPA, postpaid net adds), not on growth-stock metrics. It remains the structural share-gainer of the US Big 3.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|
| Revenue trajectory | TTM revenue ~$90.5B; Q1'26 revenue +11% YoY, postpaid service revenue +15% — strong for a sector where peers grow low-single-digits | 82 |
| Profitability vs peers | EBITDA margin 30.8%, operating 20.4%, net 11.6% — best margins among AT&T / Verizon / TMUS | 80 |
| Cash generation | FCF/share $14.21, FCF margin ~17%, P/FCF 12.3x; operating cash flow 31% of sales | 82 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net debt/EBITDA ~2.5x, D/E 2.1x, interest coverage 4.9x, current ratio 1.09; FMP debt score 1/5 — the one soft spot, but normal telecom leverage | 55 |
| Retention KPI (telecom) | Industry-lowest postpaid phone churn (~0.9%); account churn 1.04%; ARPA +3.9% to $151.93 | 80 |
Industry Benchmark: Service-Revenue Growth + EBITDA Margin
Postpaid service revenue +15% and a 30.8% EBITDA margin put TMUS at the top of the US carrier group on the telecom “growth + profitability” composite. Benchmark score: 80/100 — VZ and AT&T grow service revenue low-single-digit at ~35% and ~34% EBITDA margins but with far weaker net-add and churn trends.Pricing power
60
ARPA +3.9% and successful plan/price actions, but Starlink DTC + a live VZ/AT&T price war cap it
Network effects
45
Minimal in wireless — scored near neutral
Switching costs
55
Number portability is easy; device financing, autopay and bundling create moderate friction — but it is decaying as cable MVNOs and DTC entrants attack the edges
Cost advantage
75
Deepest US mid-band 5G spectrum (2.5GHz from Sprint) = structural capacity/cost edge; scale economics
Intangible assets
70
Spectrum licences, T-Mobile / Metro brand, “Un-carrier” positioning
Moat average ≈ 61 — a genuine cost/spectrum moat, but a below-average customer-lock-in moat, which is why the Competitive Environment read directly caps the Switching-Costs and Pricing-Power dimensions.
Competitive Environment (share trajectory feeding the moat)
Direct rivals: Verizon and AT&T. TMUS has been the Big-3 postpaid share-gainer for years — leading industry net adds with the lowest churn — and Q1'26 continued that (217k postpaid account net adds, +6% YoY; raised FY guidance).
But the share-gain rate is normalising: VZ and AT&T both beat on postpaid phone adds recently, and two edge-attackers are growing faster than the incumbents —
cable MVNOs (Comcast/Xfinity Mobile, Charter/Spectrum Mobile, riding VZ’s network) at the low end, and, structurally,
SpaceX Starlink direct-to-cell moving toward standalone US DTC wireless. In broadband, TMUS
FWA is
taking share from cable (Comcast/Charter are losing broadband subs), with fibre JVs (Lumos, Metronet) added for convergence.
| Competitor | Threat vector | Share trajectory |
|---|
| Verizon | Premium postpaid, convergence, price promos | Losing modest postpaid share to TMUS; defending with bundles |
| AT&T | Fibre + wireless convergence, aggressive promos | Roughly holding; fibre bundle is its edge; stock at 52-wk low |
| Cable MVNOs (Comcast / Charter) | Low-cost MVNO on VZ network | Fastest postpaid-phone adders — taking low-end share from all three |
| SpaceX Starlink DTC | Satellite direct-to-cell → standalone retail wireless | Pre-scale but the key structural overhang — drove the 2026 group derate |
This read
caps Switching Costs (55) and Pricing Power (60) and propagates directly to the §11 Bear case and the §12 thesis-invalidation triggers.
ROIC & capital allocation (score ~72): ROIC ~8–9% (capital-intensive, modestly above WACC). Capital allocation is disciplined and shareholder-friendly — aggressive buybacks (share count down ~6% YoY, ~1.17B→1.10B) plus a fast-growing dividend ($3.94, 40% payout). Deutsche Telekom (~50%+ owner) provides aligned, stable control. SBC is modest.
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
The 28% derate has reset a quality compounder to the Attractive/Fair edge — 0.80x warranted, 5.1% FCF/EV yield, and a $251 street target 42% above the price.
THE ANCHOR — Warranted-Multiple Valuation
r = 4.48% (UST10Y, macro 2026-07-03) + 4.5% ERP + 0.0% risk add-on (Business Quality 78 ≥ 65) = 9.0%. g_near = min(0.75 × ~17% consensus 5-yr EPS CAGR, 10% legacy-Comm-Services cap) = 10%. g_term = 3%. Two-stage → Warranted P/E ≈ 23.1x (below the 26x Comm-Services guardrail, so no cap). Actual clean multiple = 18.5x (TTM). Ratio = 18.5 ÷ 23.1 = 0.80 → Attractive/Fair edge. On forward EPS (~$10.42) the multiple is ~17x → ratio 0.74.Earnings-quality check (step 7b). FMP’s Q1'26 split is unreliable — D&A collapses to $1,150M (from ~$3,198M) and a $1,280M “non-operating” line is folded into operating income. But the discriminating test is clean: reported Q1'26 net income ($2.50B) is below year-ago Q1'25 ($2.95B) despite revenue +11% and EBITDA +12%, so there is no real non-recurring gain inflating TTM EPS of $9.58 — if anything it is conservative. The 18.5x clean P/E stands.
| Lens | Reading | Verdict |
|---|
| FCF yield (universal anchor = FCF/EV) | ~5.1% (equity FCF yield ~8.1%) | Attractive (5–8%) |
| EV/EBITDA | ~11x TTM (fwd ~8.7x — cheapest in a year) vs VZ ~7x / AT&T ~6x | Premium, justified by growth/margins |
| Forward P/E | ~17x vs VZ 9.4x / AT&T 8.6x | Premium, growth-warranted |
| Own 5-yr history | Lower part of range after the 28% derate | Attractive decile |
| PEG (fwd) | ~0.63 | Attractive |
| Analyst consensus | Target $251.64 (median $255, high $285, low $224) = +42%; 45 buy / 8 hold / 1 sell | Supportive |
Implied-growth narrative: at $177.52 on TTM EPS $9.58 the market embeds only modest growth; consensus sees a ~17% 5-yr EPS CAGR (buyback-aided) versus our disciplined 10% haircut — so the price prices in less growth than even our conservative estimate supports.
Embedded optionality — free upside
Largely un-priced after the derate: FWA scaling to a 15M-subscriber 2030 target (1M+ waitlist), fibre-JV convergence (Lumos, Metronet), 5G enterprise / network-slicing, and a nascent advertising business — optionality the core-business multiple gives you for free.
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
The stock is tethered to US wireless competitive intensity, its own postpaid share gains, the expansion of fixed-wireless home broadband, and its 5G/spectrum leadership — currently netted against a live Starlink direct-to-cell and price-competition overhang. Because the tailwind is only mild (and carries a live near-term headwind), it is insufficient to amplify a BUY into STRONG BUY.
| Horizon | Read | Score |
|---|
| Short (0–4w) | Contested — Starlink DTC narrative + VZ/AT&T price-war fears pressuring the whole group; share-gain pace normalising | 48 |
| Medium (1–6m) | Raised FY guidance, +11% revenue / +12% EBITDA, FWA + postpaid share gains + convergence | 64 |
| Long (6–18m+) | FWA toward 15M, fibre-JV convergence, 5G monetisation, buyback compounding | 68 |
Amplification note: mild net tailwind (62) with a live Starlink headwind — corroborates the Medium/Long BUY but does not lift it to STRONG BUY; near-term it caps the Short signal at HOLD alongside the downtrend.
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Communication Services (XLC) reads Outperform / Outperform / Outperform in the 2026-07-03 macro report — a portfolio Tailwind, so a long entry is Trend-Following. Regime is Contested (Soft Landing / Stagflation co-lead, 30/30), where telecom’s defensiveness (TMUS beta 0.30, non-cyclical demand) is a plus. Caveat: at beta 0.30 the stock is low-macro-sensitivity, so this alignment is a modest amplifier rather than a core thesis driver — the dominant macro channel is the 10Y rate feeding the warranted multiple.
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-03
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Every primary timeframe is in a downtrend below the 50- and 200-day; only an intraday reflex bounce off the $165.66 52-wk low is green.
Risk-reward (weak, 38). Price $177.52 just bounced +2.6% off the $165.66 52-wk low. The daily chart is a strong downtrend below SMA50 ($186.67) and SMA200 ($204.05); weekly is a downtrend with a support breakdown; monthly is a downtrend. MTF confluence is bearish. RSI is 44.6 daily / 37.8 weekly (approaching oversold — a mean-reversion setup is building), and only the hourly (recovering) and 15-min (uptrend) are green, i.e. a nascent reflex bounce.
Relative strength (weak): −28% over 1 year, the worst of the Big 3 — the sector derate hit TMUS hardest. Sentiment: negative near-term (Starlink, index-removal chatter, price-war) but offset by 45 buy ratings and a $251 consensus. Catalyst cluster: Q2 2026 earnings (~23 Jul) is the next binary and the most likely trend-breaker.
For a swing entry the tape says wait for a reclaim of ~$187 on volume or a confirmed higher low off $165–166; for medium/long horizons the deep-oversold + valuation reset makes scaling in defensible now.
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.
Upcoming events (next 30 days)
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Core CPI YoY (Jun) | High | 2.8% | 2.9% | Indirect | Rate path sets the warranted-multiple discount rate; a cooler CPI lowers the 10Y and lifts the multiple. Defensive TMUS is rate-sensitive via valuation. |
| 2026-07-29 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | High | 3.75% (hold) | 3.75% | Indirect | Hold expected; guidance tone moves the 10Y (= risk-free in the anchor). Telecom is rate-sensitive on valuation, defensive on cash flows. |
| 2026-07-30 | Core PCE MoM (Jun) | High | 0.3% | 0.3% | Indirect | Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — same rate channel into the multiple. |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun) | 57k | 110k | −48% (weak) | Softer labour supports lower rates → mild valuation tailwind for rate-sensitive telecom, but flags stagflation/demand risk |
| 2026-07-02 | Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 4.2% | 4.3% | −0.1 (lower) | Labour still tight-ish; regime stays Contested |
| 2026-07-01 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 53.3 | 54.0 | below | Mild growth cooling |
The next 30 days are inflation/Fed-heavy (CPI 14 Jul, FOMC 29 Jul, Core PCE 30 Jul). For a low-beta defensive like TMUS the dominant macro channel is the 10Y (= the warranted-multiple risk-free rate): a cooler CPI / dovish Fed lowers the discount rate and supports the multiple; a hot print does the reverse. The bigger single swing, though, is company-specific — Q2 2026 earnings (~23 Jul).
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Downtrend | ↓ | 41.3 | −9.2 hist | S 158.8 / R 224.8 | Res breakout | 0.1x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | ↓ | 37.8 | −1.0 hist | S 174.0 / R 224.8 | Support breakdown | 1.07x |
| Daily | Strong downtrend | ↓ | 44.6 | −0.6 hist | S 165.7 / R 206.8 | Support breakdown | 1.11x |
| Hourly | Recovering | ↑ | 61.2 | +0.4 hist | S 165.7 / R 184.0 | Res breakout | — |
| 15-min | Strong uptrend | ↑ | 60.6 | +0.1 hist | S 171.4 / R 177.8 | Res breakout | — |
| Confluence: Bearish · MTF Score 20/100 |
All three primary timeframes (monthly / weekly / daily) are in downtrends with price below the 50- and 200-day; the only green is intraday — a reflex bounce off the $165.66 52-wk low. The technical trigger is a daily reclaim of ~$187 (SMA50) on volume, or a confirmed higher low off $165–166. Until then the tape says wait even though the fundamentals say cheap.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.
6-month daily close (orange = 50-day SMA). The ~28% slide from the February ~$222 high to the late-June $165.66 low, with the current $177.52 a bounce still capped below the falling 50-day.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.
Bull $255 (25%)
Starlink DTC fears fade (at-scale retail is years away), postpaid share gains + FWA toward 15M continue, buybacks compound, and the multiple re-rates back toward its history / the $251 street consensus. ~+44%.
Base $210 (55%)
The competitive overhang persists but TMUS keeps executing (raised FY guide, +11% revenue); EPS grinds toward ~$11–12 and the multiple stabilises near 17–18x forward. ~+18%.
Bear $150 (20%)
A VZ/AT&T price war + cable-MVNO encroachment + Starlink DTC erode postpaid economics and FWA saturates; the multiple compresses toward VZ/AT&T (~12–13x). ~−15%.
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ 0.25×$255 + 0.55×$210 + 0.20×$150 ≈ $209 (~+18% vs $177.52). The skew is modestly positive — the 28% derate has already priced in much of the bear case.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.
How to read this — the Conviction Ladder
The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Half-Size1 of 3 groups met — one path open — starter / scale-in
Fundamental — MET
Trades ~15% below weighted fair value with an Attractive FCF/EV yield, a mild driver tailwind, and no near-term earnings gate.
✅ Price $177.52 < weighted fair value ~$210
✅ FCF/EV yield 5.1% (equity 8.1%) — Attractive band
✅ No earnings within 7 days (Q2 ~23 Jul, ~3 weeks out)
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (62)
Technical — not MET
Every primary timeframe is down and price is below SMA50/200. Preferred entry is a reclaim OR a confirmed higher low.
⛔ Daily close > SMA50 ($186.67) on >1.5x volume
⛔ OR a tested higher low off $165–166 (52-wk low)
✅ RSI 35–65 (daily 44.6)
Catalyst — not MET
No confirmed positive catalyst in the window; Q2 earnings pending.
· Q2 2026 print (~23 Jul) beats on postpaid adds/FWA with FY guide reaffirmed/raised
· Post-earnings gap >+5% holding above SMA50
Forecast: Fundamental path is already open (Half-Size justified now). The Technical path likely needs a reclaim of ~$187 or a confirmed higher low off $165–166 — plausibly catalysed by the ~23 Jul Q2 print; a clean beat could open the Catalyst path within ~3 weeks and lift the ladder to Full-Size.
Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position
Stop-Loss — not LIVE
⛔ Two daily closes below $164 (below the $165.66 52-wk low)
Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE
⛔ Postpaid phone net adds turn negative / churn structurally breaks >1.1% for 2+ quarters (share loss to VZ/AT&T/cable MVNO)
⛔ Starlink or a rival launches at-scale, price-disruptive US DTC wireless that forces TMUS price cuts
⛔ FWA growth stalls AND fibre-JV convergence fails to offset
Profit-Target — not LIVE
⛔ Price into $210 (base) / $251 consensus with daily RSI > 70
Forecast: No exit trigger live — price sits ~7% above the hard stop and the thesis is intact. A stop is unlikely absent a fresh leg down through the 52-wk low.
Imagine you act at the current price of $177.52 · as of 3 Jul 2026
What if you bought now?
Risking ~8% to the $164 stop to play for ~$210 base (+18%) / ~$255 bull (+44%) — roughly 2.5:1 reward-to-risk. But you are buying into a live downtrend, so scale in rather than lump.
What if you sold now?
Selling locks in the derate at ~18.5x TTM / 5.1% FCF-EV yield with a $251 street target and 45 buy ratings — exiting a cheap, cash-generative share-gainer into peak-pessimism on the Starlink narrative.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
"ticker": "TMUS",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:TMUS",
"isin": "US8725901040",
"api_ticker": "TMUS",
"company": "T-Mobile US, Inc.",
"sector": "Communication Services",
"sub_industry": "Wireless Telecom Services",
"lifecycle_stage": "Mature",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"status_badge": "Starting",
"finder_ticker": "TMUS",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"finder_section": "Comm. Services",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"sizing_html": "not computed",
"date": "2026-07-03",
"version": "v6",
"price_at_rating": 177.52,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"score_short": 50,
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"score_medium": 64,
"signal_long": "BUY",
"score_long": 68,
"quality_score": 78,
"valuation_score": 70,
"timing_score": 38,
"driver_score": 62,
"econ_conviction": 64,
"econ_stance": "Trend-Following",
"econ_pressure": "Tailwind",
"econ_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
"warranted_multiple": 23.1,
"actual_multiple": 18.5,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean TTM P/E",
"discount_rate_r": 0.09,
"risk_free_10y": 0.0448,
"g_near": 0.1,
"g_term": 0.03,
"warranted_ratio": 0.8,
"val_band": "attractive",
"fcf_yield_ev": 0.051,
"fcf_yield_equity": 0.081,
"ev_ebitda": 11.0,
"ev_ebitda_fwd": 8.7,
"fwd_pe": 17.0,
"dividend_yield": 0.022,
"competitive_rivals": "Verizon, AT&T, cable MVNOs (Comcast/Charter), SpaceX Starlink DTC",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "TMUS still gaining postpaid share (leading net adds, lowest churn) but pace normalising; cable MVNOs + Starlink DTC attacking the edges",
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"scenario_base_target": 210,
"scenario_bull_target": 255,
"scenario_bear_target": 150,
"fair_value_weighted": 209,
"stop_loss": 164,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-23",
"next_update_basis": "Q2 2026 earnings (~23 Jul); FOMC 29 Jul secondary",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Technical downtrend",
"Competitive/Starlink overhang",
"Earnings proximity (~3wk)"
],
"dnb_triggers": []
}
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_company_profile identity, ISIN US8725901040, sector, beta 0.30, price $177.52
✓
get_income_statement 6 quarters; TTM rev ~$90.5B, NI ~$10.5B — used for the clean-earnings check
✓
get_financial_ratios TTM P/E 18.5x, EV/EBITDA 11.0x, FCF/sh $14.21, ROE ~19%, D/E 2.1x, fwd PEG 0.63
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis 5-frame technicals — bearish confluence, below SMA50/200
✓
get_price_target_consensus consensus $251.64, median $255, high $285, low $224
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades 45 buy / 8 hold / 1 sell; recent upgrades Oppenheimer, Keybanc, Daiwa
✓
get_analyst_estimates 2026 EPS $10.42 → 2030 $19.95 (~17% CAGR); revenue $94.6B → $109.8B
✓
get_ratings_snapshot FMP rating B; ROE 4/5, ROA 4/5, debt 1/5
✓
get_stock_prices 125 daily bars for the 6-month chart
✓
get_economic_calendar CPI 14 Jul, FOMC 29 Jul, Core PCE 30 Jul; NFP 57k miss 2 Jul
⚠
get_polygon_news 12 articles — Starlink DTC threat, dividend-growth coverage; thin on hard KPIs
✗
get_earnings_calendar returned empty for TMUS; Q2 date (~23 Jul) inferred from prior-year cadence + web
✓
WebSearch (KPIs + peer valuation) Q1'26 postpaid adds 217k, churn 1.04%, ARPA $151.93 +3.9%; EV/EBITDA vs VZ/AT&T; Starlink derate
⚠
Earnings-quality decomposition (step 7b) FMP Q1'26 op/non-op split broken (D&A collapse, $1.28B non-op folded into op income); verified TTM EPS $9.58 is clean — reported Q1'26 NI below year-ago despite rev +11%, so no non-recurring gain inflates it
Impact on scores: High coverage. One correction applied: FMP’s Q1'26 income-statement split is unreliable, so Valuation leans on a cross-checked clean TTM P/E (18.5x) plus two split-insensitive anchors (FCF/EV 5.1%, EV/EBITDA ~11x TTM / ~8.7x fwd) — all three land Attractive, so the band is robust. get_earnings_calendar empty (Q2 date inferred). No score materially haircut.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.