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NASDAQ:TCOM Trip.com Group Limited

ISIN: US89677Q1076
Consumer DiscretionaryOnline TravelChina / EM Equity (ADR)SAMR antitrust probe
NASDAQ · HQ Singapore · China online travel (US-listed ADR) · Financials in CNY, price in USD Analysis Status: Starting
Reported financials are in CNY; the ADR price and all valuation multiples are in USD (CNY EPS converted at ~7.2 CNY/USD). Multiples are scored on operating earnings — reported net income is inflated by non-operating mark-to-market gains on equity stakes (esp. Q3-2025).
$41.00
-0.2%
2026-07-03 · Signal v6
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Trip.com Group Limited

Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ: TCOM) is China's dominant online travel agency and one of the largest in the world, running the Ctrip and Qunar platforms at home and the international Trip.com and Skyscanner brands abroad. Its core business is acting as a booking intermediary — taking a commission on hotel rooms, air/train/bus tickets, packaged tours and in-destination activities — rather than owning the underlying travel inventory, which makes it a high-margin, asset-light marketplace (gross margin ~80%). What sets it apart is scale and network density in the Chinese travel market: the more travellers and suppliers on the platform, the better the pricing, selection and data, a two-sided flywheel that is hard for rivals to replicate. The group is also expanding aggressively outside China, where international and inbound bookings are growing far faster than the mature domestic base. Headquartered in Singapore and listed as a US ADR, its earnings are majority-levered to the Chinese consumer travel cycle.

HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo)HOLD4555%Binary SAMR antitrust probe + strong downtrend / new 52-wk low cap the near term
Medium-term (6–12 mo)HOLD5858%Cheap, high-quality franchise — but the unresolved antitrust binary caps the signal at HOLD
Long-term (3–5 yr)BUY6862%Quality + attractive valuation + structural China outbound / international travel recovery
Next update: 2026-07-17 — default +14d — no dated catalyst inside the 14-day window; monitor SAMR probe developments & base-building vs the $38.04 52-wk low (Q2 FY26 earnings ~late Aug is the next hard catalyst)
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status3Pillar Detail: Business Quality4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing8Economic Event Risk9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis10Price Chart (6-Month Daily)11Scenario Summary12Entry / Exit Rules13Position Sizing Context14Calibration Snapshot15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.

Business Quality

75
strong
conf 72%

Valuation Attractiveness

76
attractive
conf 80%

Entry/Exit Timing

35
weak
conf 65%

Underlying Drivers

62
neutral / mild tailwind
conf 62%

Economic Alignment

55
Trend-Following / Neutral
conf 60%
2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅
Financial Distress
Net cash (debt/equity 0.19, cash/share ~124 CNY vs interest-debt/share ~49 CNY), interest coverage 23.8×, current ratio 1.53, FCF strongly positive. No distress.
❌
Regulatory / Binary Event (Gate 5) — TRIGGERED
China's SAMR opened a formal Anti-Monopoly Law investigation (notice 14 Jan 2026) into alleged abuse of dominant market position / 'AI pricing' practices. Outcome is genuinely binary — the company's own disclosure warns of 'significant fines, other penalties or business changes with material adverse effects.' This caps the Short and Medium signals at HOLD (the binary is unquantifiable over 0–12mo and sits inside its pending window); the Long signal remains BUY because the probe is expected to resolve inside the 3–5yr horizon and the quality+value thesis survives.
⚠️
Earnings-Quality / Accounting (Gate 4 backstop)
Reported net income is materially inflated by NON-OPERATING mark-to-market gains on equity stakes (Q3-2025: RMB19.9B reported net income vs RMB5.6B operating income — a ~14B one-off 'other income' swing). All valuation multiples in this report are computed on OPERATING earnings, so no clean multiple is distorted. Not triggered (no dilution — share count flat-to-declining, ~648–660M), flagged as caution.
✅
Valuation Ceiling (Gate 3)
Clean forward P/E ~14× sits well BELOW the 18.7× warranted multiple (ratio 0.75, Attractive band) and far below the Consumer-Discretionary 24× guardrail. No ceiling risk — the opposite.
✅
Earnings Event (Gate 2)
Next earnings (Q2 FY26) expected ~late Aug 2026 — outside the 14-day window. No imminent binary earnings event.
Net verdict: One triggered gate — the SAMR antitrust binary (Gate 5) — caps the Short & Medium signals at HOLD. No Do-Not-Buy trigger fires (the name is cheap, not expensive; the guidance cut has already been repriced — stock −49% from its Jan peak). Hard-gate state: ⚠ Caution.
3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
High-margin, net-cash, dominant China OTA franchise; ROE optically diluted by a large cash/investment pile and regulatory scrutiny of its dominance.
75
conf 72%

Lifecycle: Growth (profitable). Trip.com is a scaled, asset-light online-travel marketplace — Consumer Discretionary / Online Travel (China). Revenue grew +17% YoY in Q1-2026 (RMB16.2B) driven by international gross bookings +65% and inbound +90%, on a mature but still-recovering domestic base. It is firmly profitable with an ~80% gross margin and ~25% TTM operating margin, so it is scored on operating leverage, cash generation and franchise durability rather than early-stage growth metrics.

Sub-signalReadingScore
Revenue trajectory+17% YoY Q1; intl bookings +65%, inbound +90% — strong, but Q2 guide decelerates to +3–8%70
Profitability vs peersGross margin ~80%; operating margin ~25% (TTM). Below BKNG's ~35% op margin but well ahead of most OTAs72
Cash generationFCF/OCF ratio 0.94; FCF/share ~21 CNY; P/FCF ~13×. Cash is real, not accrual80
Balance-sheet healthNet cash; debt/equity 0.19; interest coverage 23.8×; current ratio 1.5385
Earnings qualityReported NI inflated by non-operating MTM gains on equity stakes — operating earnings clean, but a watch item55
Industry benchmark — OTA composite (bookings growth + take-rate durability): International bookings compounding ~60–65% while the platform holds its commission take-rate = the flywheel is working. Domestic is mature (single-digit); the growth engine is outbound + international. Benchmark score: 72/100 — top-tier volume scaling, offset by a decelerating near-term guide.
Pricing power
62
Real, but the SAMR probe targets exactly this (pricing / 'AI pricing') — capped until resolved.
Network effects
82
Strong two-sided marketplace — more travellers/suppliers → better selection, price and data.
Switching costs
55
Moderate — consumers multi-home across apps; loyalty programme + ecosystem provide some stickiness.
Cost advantage
75
Scale economics in China supply/traffic acquisition; hard for sub-scale rivals to match.
Intangible assets
72
Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner brands — multi-brand coverage across segments/geographies.

Moat average ≈ 69. The moat is genuine but its strongest leg (China dominance/pricing) is precisely what the antitrust probe attacks.

Competitive Environment (MANDATORY ·7c): Trip.com is the clear leader in China high-star hotels, air and outbound, but the arena is contested and share is being fought for at the low end and abroad.
CompetitorArenaShare trajectoryThreat
MeituanChina hotels (budget / lower-tier)Gaining in mass-market lodgingHigh
Alibaba / FliggyChina OTAStable, sub-scale vs TCOMMedium
Tongcheng TravelLower-tier China (TCOM holds a stake)Growing, partly alignedMedium
Booking / AgodaInternational / outboundEntrenched abroad; TCOM is the challengerMed-High
Airbnb / ExpediaAlt-accommodation & intlRegional/niche overlapMedium

Net: dominant at home in premium travel (which draws the regulator's attention), a credible but not-yet-leading challenger internationally. Share is stable-to-gaining in premium China + international, contested at the budget end by Meituan.

ROIC & capital allocation: Underlying returns on the operating business are healthy, but headline ROE (~7–8%) is optically depressed by a very large cash + equity-investment pile (P/B just 1.1×). Capital allocation is conservative — net cash, a small dividend (payout ~5%), modest buybacks, no value-destructive M&A. FMP financial-health rating: S- (5/5), corroborating the quality read.

4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Clean forward P/E ~14× vs an 18.7× warranted multiple (ratio 0.75) — Attractive; a deep discount to Western OTA peers, with net cash + equity stakes as free optionality.
76
conf 80%

Warranted-Multiple Anchor (applies — profitable). Discount rate r = 4.48% risk-free (UST10Y, macro 2026-07-03) + 4.5% ERP + 1.5% China/VIE-ADR risk add-on = 10.5%. Disciplined growth: g_near = 10.5% (0.75× the ~14% consensus EPS CAGR, held at the cyclical/normal bucket for a travel-recovery grower), g_term = 3%. Two-stage warranted P/E ≈ 18.7×, below the Consumer-Discretionary 24× guardrail (no cap needed).

Actual clean multiple: operating EPS TTM ≈ 19 CNY and 2026E consensus EPS ≈ 24.6 CNY; at a $41 ADR (≈ 295 CNY) that is a clean trailing P/E ~15× and forward P/E ~14× — both on OPERATING earnings (the reported ~6–7× trailing P/E is a mirage inflated by the Q3-2025 non-operating mark-to-market gain; do not use it). Ex-net-cash, stripping ~75 CNY/share of net cash, the forward P/E falls to ~11× — and lower still counting the equity stakes.

LensReadingScore
Warranted anchor (40%)actual 14× ÷ warranted 18.7× = 0.75 → Attractive band82
Sector median (20%)BKNG ~17–20× fwd, EXPE ~24×, ABNB ~30×; TCOM ~14× = a steep discount80
Own 5-yr history (15%)Near the low end of its own multiple range; price at a 52-wk low78
PEG (10%)Forward PEG ~0.36 (FMP) on mid-teens growth — cheap, though near-term growth decelerating62
Analyst consensus (15%)Consensus target $59.77 (median $60, high $75, low $44.3); price ~33% below consensus → strong support. Grades 30 Buy / 11 Hold / 2 Sell (Buy)80

FCF yield: ~7% (P/FCF ~13×) — attractive. Implied-growth read: at $41 the market embeds only mid-single-digit long-run growth; our disciplined estimate is ~10% — i.e. the price embeds LESS growth than the fundamentals support, the signature of a de-rated grower.

Embedded Optionality / Free Upside: (1) Net cash ~75 CNY/share plus a large portfolio of equity stakes (Tongcheng, MakeMyTrip and others) carried well below the group multiple — the operating business is effectively priced at ~11× or less once these are netted out. (2) International (Trip.com brand) expansion compounding 60–65% is buried inside a consolidated China multiple — a sum-of-the-parts gap. (3) A benign antitrust resolution (fine, not structural remedy) is a discrete re-rating catalyst the market is currently pricing pessimistically. Core business justifies most of the $41; the stakes + international ramp are close to free. Net: Attractive — China risk is counted once, inside r.
5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Primary Driver
China + Asian travel-demand cycle (domestic + outbound recovery + international expansion)
62
No amplification (36–64 band)

Trip.com is not in the US AI cohort — it carries no AI tail. Its real underlying driver is the China + Asian travel-demand cycle: domestic Chinese travel (mature, single-digit), the far-faster outbound recovery (Chinese travellers abroad, still below pre-pandemic penetration), and Trip.com-brand international expansion (bookings +65%, inbound to China +90%). Near-term the driver is muted — Q2 guidance decelerated to +3–8% YoY, with management citing macro headwinds (elevated oil, geopolitics) and antitrust-compliance costs. Structurally, Chinese outbound under-penetration + international share gains remain a multi-year tailwind.

HorizonDriver stateScore
Short (0–4w)Demand decelerating (Q2 +3–8%), regulatory overhang, macro headwinds — weak40
Medium (1–6m)Recovery intact, international compounding, but probe unresolved — neutral58
Long (6–18m+)Structural outbound under-penetration + international/inbound expansion — tailwind68

Amplification role: composite driver score 62 sits in the 36–64 neutral band, so it does not amplify the base signal (and Economic-Alignment pressure is Neutral near-term anyway). Even the Long leg (68) is blocked from amplifying to STRONG BUY — the antitrust binary and neutral near-term economy preclude it. The driver does not alter the three fundamental pillar scores.

6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Stance · Pressure
Trend-Following / Neutral · Neutral near-term, mild Tailwind long
55
conviction

Regime Contested — Soft Landing / Stagflation co-lead (30/30, Reaccel 27, DefBust 13), confidence Low-Med; UST10Y 4.48%, VIX 16.59, US unemployment 4.2%. Finder section 'EM Equities' → macro EM Equities asset-class stance = Short N / Medium N / Long O. Pressure is Neutral near-term, mild Tailwind long; stance Trend-Following/Neutral, moderate conviction. TCOM is an EM (China ADR) name — its true macro sensitivity is the China travel-demand cycle and China regulatory posture, not US rates or the AI trade.

Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-03

7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Falling knife — strong downtrend, price at a fresh 52-wk low below every major MA; weekly RSI 27.6 oversold offers only a bounce, not a trend turn.
35
conf 65%

The tape is decisively bearish across the higher timeframes. Price ($41) sits below the daily 50-DMA ($48.5) and 200-DMA ($60.7), just above the $38.04 52-wk low printed 24 Jun on heavy volume. The name is down ~49% from its January peak (~$79). Weekly RSI 27.6 and daily RSI 33 are oversold, and the hourly/15-min are 'recovering' — enough for a reflex bounce, not evidence of a trend reversal. This is a classic 'higher-TF bearish + lower-TF bounce' = sell-the-rip structure until a base forms.

TimeframeTrendRSIMACDKey S/RBreakout
MonthlyDowntrend ↓40.0−, below signalS 30.7 / R 58.0weak
WeeklyDowntrend ↓27.6 (oversold)−S 45.9 / R 65.2support breakdown
DailyStrong downtrend ↓33.3−, fallingS 38.04 / R 54.5support breakdown
HourlyRecovering →58.0+ , flatS 39.2 / R 41.6minor breakout
15-minUp (micro) ↑59.1+S 40.2 / R 41.3minor breakout

Confluence: Bearish (MTF score ≈ 28). Relative strength is deeply negative — TCOM has badly lagged both the market and OTA peers over 1m/3m and sits in the bottom decile of its 52-wk range (near lows = beaten-down, but a live falling knife until proven otherwise). Macro sensitivity is Medium (Consumer Discretionary); VIX 16.6 is benign. Risk-reward: nearest logical stop is below the $38.04 low (~1.5× daily ATR of $1.69) — tight, but the entry is a knife, so weight to the pullback/base-reclaim path.

8

Economic Event Risk

High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

DateEventImpactForecastPreviousRelevant?Why
2026-07-15US CPI (YoY)Medium——MediumConsumer Discretionary: US-listed ADR risk-appetite / rate backdrop
2026-07-29FOMC rate decisionHighHoldHoldMediumRisk-appetite for EM/China ADRs (indirect)
late Aug 2026TCOM Q2 FY26 earningsHighRev +3–8% YoYQ1 +17%YesConfirms the guided deceleration & margin pressure; next hard catalyst

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

DateEventActualForecastSurpriseImpact
2026-06-24TCOM shares to new 52-wk low $38.04−18% wk—NegativeWeak Q2 guide + macro/regulatory overhang
2026-01-14SAMR antitrust probe announced−17% day—NegativeAnti-Monopoly Law investigation — the core overhang

No high-impact, dated catalyst falls inside the 14-day window — the next hard event is Q2 FY26 earnings (~late Aug). The dominant path risk is not the calendar but the open-ended SAMR probe. TCOM is Consumer Discretionary (Medium macro sensitivity), so recurring US macro prints are only indirect.

9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
TimeframeTrendDirectionRSIMACDKey S/RBreakoutVol
MonthlyDowntrendBearish40.0−S 30.7 / R 58.0weak0.1x
WeeklyDowntrendBearish27.6−S 45.9 / R 65.2breakdown0.98x
DailyStrong downtrendBearish33.3−S 38.04 / R 54.5breakdown0.92x
HourlyRecoveringNeutral58.0+S 39.2 / R 41.6minorlow
15-minUp (micro)Neutral59.1+S 40.2 / R 41.3minorlow
Confluence: Bearish · MTF Score 28

Monthly, weekly and daily trends are all down and price just broke to a new 52-wk low; only the intraday timeframes are bouncing off oversold. That is a counter-trend reflex, not a reversal. A trend-change signal would be a daily close back above the 50-DMA (~$48.5) on >1.5× volume, or a tested higher-low bounce off the $38–40 zone — watch those, don't front-run them.

10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.

TCOM daily (Jan–Jul 2026): a ~49% de-rate from the ~$79 January peak to a fresh $38.04 52-wk low, with the Jan-14 SAMR probe gap and the late-June guidance-cut flush the two visible legs down.

11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.

Bull $68 (25%)

SAMR probe resolves with a manageable behavioural fine (not a structural remedy); travel recovery re-accelerates in H2 as macro headwinds ease; international bookings keep compounding ~60%. Multiple re-rates toward peers (~18–20× fwd) on de-risked earnings. ~$65–70.

Base $52 (50%)

Gradual recovery — domestic single-digit, outbound/international carrying growth back to mid-teens by 2027. Overhang lingers but clears without a business-model change; modest re-rate from ~14× to ~16× clean fwd P/E. Lands below the $60 consensus median for a residual regulatory haircut. ~$52.

Bear $30 (25%)

Two legs: (1) China-regulatory / VIE / ADR-delisting — SAMR imposes a structural remedy or a large fine that dents the take-rate, and/or US-China ADR de-listing fears force multiple compression toward ~8–9× fwd; (2) travel-demand slowdown — Chinese consumer weakens, outbound stalls on macro, and the guided +3–8% proves the new run-rate, not a trough. ~$28–32.

Probability-weighted fair value ≈ $50–51 (0.25×$68 + 0.50×$52 + 0.25×$30). Base most probable; the fat 25% bear tail (regulatory + demand) is why the near-term signal is HOLD despite an Attractive valuation — the asymmetry is favourable over 3–5yr, not over the next quarter.

12

Entry / Exit Rules

Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Half-Size1 of 3 groups met — one path open — starter / scale-in

Fundamental — MET

Trades well below fair value with a live long-run driver — the value path is open now.
✅ Price $41 < fair-value estimate ~$52 (base)
✅ No earnings within 7 days (next Q2 report ~late Aug)
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (62)

Technical — not MET

Falling knife — below every major MA in a strong downtrend; wait for a reclaim OR a tested base.
⛔ Daily close > 50-DMA (~$48.5) on > 1.5× volume
⛔ OR a tested higher-low bounce off the $38–40 zone
⛔ RSI 35–65 (daily 33 / weekly 27.6 — oversold, below band)

Catalyst — not MET

No confirming event — last guide was CUT, not raised; the probe is an overhang, not a positive catalyst.
· Post-earnings move > +5% with guidance raised/maintained
⛔ Benign SAMR resolution (fine, not structural remedy)

Forecast: Fundamental group already MET → a starter (Half-Size) position is valid today for a 3–5yr horizon. Technical group: LOW confidence in the next 4–6 weeks — price is 18% below the 50-DMA and the weekly trend is down; a reclaim needs a demand/regulatory catalyst first, most plausibly the $38–40 base holding and building a higher low (watch, don't front-run). Catalyst group: catalyst-dependent — a benign SAMR resolution (undated) or the Q2 print (~late Aug) are the unlocks. Conviction rises to Full-Size only when the Technical group joins.

Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

⛔ Two weekly closes below $36 (beneath the $38.04 52-wk low)

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

⛔ SAMR imposes a STRUCTURAL remedy / take-rate-denting fine (regulatory leg)
⛔ Full-year revenue guidance cut, or growth settles below the OTA-peer median for 2+ quarters (demand leg)
⛔ Credible US-China ADR de-listing / VIE-enforcement escalation

Profit-Target — not LIVE

⛔ Price into the $60 median analyst target with RSI > 70 and no fresh quality step-up

Forecast: Stop-Loss: UNLIKELY-but-live — $36 is only ~12% below spot and just under the 52-wk low, so a demand miss or an adverse SAMR headline could reach it; size accordingly. Thesis-Invalidation: the dominant risk — currently CLEAR (guidance reduced for Q2 only, not full-year; driver still a long-run tailwind), but a structural SAMR remedy would flip it to Exit immediately. Profit-Target: not a 2026 concern given the downtrend.

Imagine you act at the current price of $41.00 · as of 2026-07-03

What if you bought now?

A Half-Size starter here risks ~12% (to the $36 stop) against a ~$52 base / ~$68 bull — a favourable 3–5yr skew, but you are catching a knife into an open antitrust probe. Scale, don't lunge.

What if you sold now?

Selling here locks in the de-rate at a trough multiple on a net-cash, cash-generative franchise — only warranted if you believe the SAMR outcome is structural or the China travel cycle is rolling over.
13

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
not computed
14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
  "ticker": "TCOM",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:TCOM",
  "isin": "US89677Q1076",
  "api_ticker": "TCOM",
  "company": "Trip.com Group Limited",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "status_badge": "Starting",
  "finder_ticker": "TCOM",
  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
  "finder_section": "EM Equities",
  "user_horizon": null,
  "user_allocation_pct": null,
  "portfolio_role": null,
  "sizing_html": "not computed",
  "date": "2026-07-03",
  "version": "v6",
  "scores": {
    "quality": 75,
    "valuation": 76,
    "timing": 35,
    "drivers": 62,
    "econ_alignment": 55
  },
  "signals": {
    "short": "HOLD",
    "medium": "HOLD",
    "long": "BUY"
  },
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "gate_triggered": "Regulatory / Binary Event (Gate 5) \u2014 SAMR antitrust probe caps Short & Medium at HOLD",
  "dnb_triggered": false,
  "amplification": "none (driver 62 in 36-64 band; econ pressure Neutral)",
  "entry_groups_met": 1,
  "entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "warranted_multiple": 18.7,
  "actual_multiple": 14.0,
  "val_multiple_basis": "clean forward P/E (operating earnings; USD ADR price vs 2026E CNY EPS @ ~7.2 CNY/USD; excludes the Q3-2025 non-operating mark-to-market gain)",
  "discount_rate_r": 0.105,
  "risk_free_10y": 0.0448,
  "g_near": 0.105,
  "g_term": 0.03,
  "warranted_ratio": 0.75,
  "val_band": "attractive",
  "fcf_yield": 0.07,
  "ex_net_cash_fwd_pe": 11.0,
  "competitive_primary_rivals": [
    "Meituan",
    "Alibaba/Fliggy",
    "Tongcheng Travel",
    "Booking/Agoda",
    "Airbnb/Expedia"
  ],
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "Leader in China premium hotels/air/outbound (stable-to-gaining) and a credible international challenger; contested at the budget end by Meituan.",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following / Neutral",
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral near-term, mild Tailwind long",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 55,
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
  "price_at_rating": 41.0,
  "fair_value": 51.0,
  "stop_loss": 36.0,
  "scenario_base_target": 52.0,
  "scenario_bull_target": 68.0,
  "scenario_bear_target": 30.0,
  "scenario_probabilities": {
    "bull": 0.25,
    "base": 0.5,
    "bear": 0.25
  },
  "next_update_date": "2026-07-17",
  "next_update_basis": "default +14d (no dated catalyst in window; monitor SAMR probe & $38 base; Q2 FY26 earnings ~late Aug is next hard catalyst)"
}

First report — finder-promoted (EM Equities, Fit 73) to fill the EM Equities × US grid cell. Attractive valuation + strong franchise vs a falling knife and a live antitrust binary → HOLD (Short) / HOLD (Medium) / BUY (Long), Half-Size. Comes back NOT a Short BUY, so it joins the watchlist as depth; the grid cell stays honestly empty for slot 1.

15

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_company_profile / get_financial_ratios Profile, ISIN US89677Q1076, margins, net-cash balance sheet, FMP rating S- (5/5)
✓
get_income_statement (8q) Decomposed operating vs reported NI — confirmed Q3-2025 ~14B non-operating MTM gain; scored on operating earnings
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get_multi_timeframe_analysis / get_stock_prices All 5 timeframes + daily series; confirmed strong downtrend, $38.04 52-wk low
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get_price_target_consensus / get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades Consensus $59.77 (median $60, high $75, low $44.3); 30 Buy / 11 Hold / 2 Sell; 1 recent downgrade (Macquarie → Neutral)
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get_analyst_estimates 2026E EPS ~24.6 CNY / rev ~67.6B CNY → clean fwd P/E ~14× (USD price vs CNY EPS @ ~7.2)
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get_earnings_calendar Returned no dated row for TCOM; next earnings inferred ~late Aug 2026 from the quarterly cadence
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get_polygon_news SAMR antitrust probe, multiple securities class actions, Q2 guide-down to +3–8%, HK tourism partnership
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WebSearch Q1 +17%, intl bookings +65% / inbound +90%; SAMR probe status; peer fwd P/E (BKNG ~17–20×, EXPE ~24×, ABNB ~30×)
Impact on scores: Coverage is strong; the only gap is a missing dated earnings row (get_earnings_calendar empty), so the next-update is set on the +14d default with Q2 (~late Aug) flagged. Financials are CNY; multiples computed on operating earnings against the USD ADR price at ~7.2 CNY/USD — stamped for auditability.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.