← Back to DonatienInvestment Report archive →

TSX:SU Suncor Energy Inc.

ISIN: CA8672241079
EnergyIntegrated Oil & GasOil Sands
TSX · Calgary, Canada · Integrated Oil & Gas · also NYSE:SU Analysis Status: On-Going
All prices in Canadian dollars (C$) unless noted. Oil price levels quoted to WTI/Brent spot (US$).
C$92.85
-0.7% (day)
25 Jul 2026 · Signal v6
What changed since 10 Jul 2026 (C$82.97 → C$92.85, +12%):
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Suncor Energy Inc.

Suncor Energy is Canada's largest integrated energy company, founded in 1917 and headquartered in Calgary. Its core business is mining and in-situ extraction of bitumen from the Athabasca oil sands, which it upgrades into synthetic crude and diesel or blends for market — a long-life, low-decline resource base measured in decades of reserves. Crucially, Suncor is integrated end-to-end: it also owns four refineries and the Petro-Canada retail network of roughly 1,800 stations, so it captures the full margin from the wellhead to the pump. That downstream refining-and-retail arm is the differentiator versus pure oil-sands producers — when crude swings, the refining and marketing business partly offsets the move, smoothing the cash flows an upstream-only producer would feel in full. Think of it as a low-cost, very-long-life barrel factory bolted to a national fuel distributor.

HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo)HOLD6245%Overbought (RSI 74) at 52w high — buy on a pullback
Medium-term (6–12 mo)BUY6555%Quality + attractive-edge value; oil tailwind buffered by integration
Long-term (3–5 yr)BUY6858%Integrated durability, low breakeven, disciplined capital return
Next update: 2026-08-05 — Q2 earnings 2026-08-04 (analyst webcast Aug 5) +1 trading day — INSIDE the 14-day window; scheduled post-release to capture Q2 segment margins + capital-return update
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status3Pillar Detail: Business Quality4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing8Economic Event Risk9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis10Price Chart (6-Month Daily)11Scenario Summary12Entry / Exit Rules13Position Sizing Context14Calibration Snapshot15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.

Business Quality

74
durable integrated cash-cow
conf 72%

Valuation Attractiveness

61
attractive-edge (upside compressed by the rally)
conf 74%

Entry/Exit Timing

58
strong uptrend but overbought/extended
conf 40%

Underlying Drivers

63
Neutral (short Tailwind, buffered)
conf 55%

Economic Alignment

70
Trend-Following
conf 70%
2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅
1 · Financial Distress
CLEAR — Net debt/EBITDA ~0.71x, current ratio 1.42, FCF ~C$6.7B TTM. No distress.
⚠️
2 · Earnings Event Risk
CAUTION — Q2 results release 4 Aug (analyst webcast 5 Aug), ~10 days out — INSIDE the 14-day window. Binary event risk into a live oil shock; Timing confidence capped at 40%. Does not block the Medium/Long BUY, but flags that near-term timing is uncertain.
✅
3 · Valuation Ceiling
CLEAR — EV/EBITDAX 7.77x < 8x guardrail; forward P/E 11.97x < 15x; actual/warranted 0.80x (Attractive band). Trailing P/E 17.65x is inflated by cyclical-trough TTM earnings, not a ceiling breach.
✅
4 · Accounting / Dilution
CLEAR — Reported net income is NOT inflated by non-operating gains (interest + tax are a net drag). Share count stable; buybacks shrinking it.
✅
5 · Regulatory / Binary Event
CLEAR — No pending binary regulatory event. Oil-sands emissions/pipeline policy is a slow structural factor, not a dated catalyst.
Four hard gates clear; Gate 2 (Earnings-Event) cautions — Q2 results land 4 Aug (webcast 5 Aug), inside the 14-day window, so Timing confidence is capped at 40%. No Do-Not-Buy trigger. The other cap in force is the Short-horizon technical-confirmation cap — the short base signal is BUY, but with the daily RSI at 73.9 (overbought) the Technical entry group is unmet and there is no live catalyst, so Short is capped at HOLD (“buy on a pullback”). Medium and Long are unaffected.
3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
Durable, low-cost integrated producer; strong balance sheet
74
conf 72%

Lifecycle: Mature cash-cow. Suncor is a mature integrated with a decades-long, low-decline oil-sands reserve base. Reported revenue growth (~+17% YoY) and earnings growth (~+30%) are cyclical/price-driven, not secular — so we score it on cash generation, breakeven resilience and capital discipline, not growth. The 2026 story is execution: under CEO Rich Kruger, Suncor hit its three-year Investor-Day cost and reliability targets early, posting record upstream production and standardising project designs to lower development cost and execution risk.

Sub-signalValueRead
ROE / ROA14.0% / 5.9%Healthy for an integrated through-cycle
Net debt / EBITDA~0.71xStrong — well below the 2.0x comfort line
FCF yield~6.1%Attractive; funds dividend + buyback comfortably
Dividend / payout2.6% / ~45% of EPSSustainable; room to grow
ROIC~10.5%Above cost of capital through the cycle
Operating margin~20.8%Integration cushions downstream
Industry benchmark — FCF Breakeven vs Spot: Suncor's all-in (incl. dividend) WTI breakeven is ~US$43/bbl against WTI spot ~US$90 — breakeven at ~48% of spot. Energy scoring: breakeven < 60% of spot → 90-100. Benchmark score: 88/100. This is the margin-of-safety that lets Suncor keep returning cash deep into a downcycle.
Pricing power30Price-taker on crude
Network effects50n/a — neutral
Switching costs40Modest Petro-Canada retail loyalty
Cost advantage68Long-life, low-decline oil sands + scale + integration
Intangibles60Petro-Canada brand, oil-sands leases

Moat score: 50/100 — the edge is durability (structural cost + reserve life), not pricing power. Capital allocation ~78 (disciplined buybacks, dividend, Investor-Day targets hit early); management skin-in-the-game ~58.

Competitive Environment (feeds Switching-Costs & Cost-Advantage). Suncor competes in a mature Canadian oil-sands oligopoly. Its operational turnaround (2023-26) closed the reliability/cost gap that had opened versus lower-cost peers, so its relative position is stable-to-improving. Its integrated downstream (4 refineries + ~1,800 Petro-Canada sites) differentiates it from pure upstream producers. Threat level: moderate — rational competition, no share war; the real long-run risk is relative cost creep and the structural demand fade.
RivalProfileTrajectory vs SU
Canadian Natural (CNQ.TO)Largest CA oil-sands/heavy-oil producer (~1.4M boe/d), ultra-low-decline, top shareholder returnsThe cost benchmark; SU has narrowed the gap
Cenovus (CVE.TO)Integrated oil sands + refining; growth projects (Christina Lake North) targeting >1M boe/d by 2028Higher growth, less mature; adding supply
Imperial Oil (IMO.TO)ExxonMobil-controlled integrated (Kearl, Cold Lake + Esso retail); disciplined, high buybacksPeer on discipline; smaller downstream footprint
4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Attractive on the anchor, but the +12% run compressed the upside
61
conf 74%

Warranted-multiple anchor. Discount rate r = 4.5% risk-free (10Y) + 4.5% ERP + 0 (Quality ≥ 65) = 9.0%. Disciplined growth g_near 6% (Energy defensive/mature bucket), g_term 3%. Two-stage warranted P/E ≈ 19.5x, capped at the Energy guardrail of 15x. Actual forward P/E 11.97 ÷ 15.0 = 0.80x → Attractive band (edge).

MultipleValueRead
Forward P/E (anchor basis)11.97xBelow the 15x guardrail — Attractive
EV/EBITDAX (primary energy cross-check)7.77xBelow the 8x guardrail — not rich
Trailing P/E17.65xElevated only because TTM EPS (C$5.26) is cyclical-trough; forward EPS C$7.76 is the recovery — forward is the operative lens
P/B2.40xFull but normal for a high-ROE integrated
FCF yield~6.1%Still attractive after the rally
Why the score fell 66 → 61 since 10 Jul. Nothing deteriorated in the business — the price ran +12% (C$82.97 → C$92.85). Forward P/E rose 10.6x → 12.0x (ratio 0.71 → 0.80), EV/EBITDA 6.5x → 7.8x (now near the 8x guardrail), and analyst upside compressed from +21% to +10.7% (consensus C$102.8; the low target C$90 now sits below spot). The name is cheaper than its own quality warrants, but most of the obvious upside has been taken.

Analyst consensus & grades. 20 analysts: consensus C$102.8 (median C$103, high C$118, low C$90) = +10.7% to consensus. Grades 7 Strong-Buy / 7 Buy / 6 Hold / 0 Sell / 1 Strong-Sell (67% bullish, consensus “buy”). FMP health rating B+ (score 3) — slipped from A-/4 last run as the P/E and P/B sub-scores fell to 2 after the rally (a valuation, not a balance-sheet, downgrade).

5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Primary Driver
Crude oil price (WTI + WCS differential), buffered by integration
63
Neutral — no amplification (short-horizon Tailwind, capped by tape)

Primary driver: the crude oil price (WTI, and the WCS–WTI heavy differential that sets Suncor's realised barrel). But Suncor is integrated — a crude spike lifts the upstream barrel while compressing downstream refining cracks, so the net sensitivity is materially lower than a pure E&P (a Permian name like FANG moves ~1.5–2x WTI; Suncor's beta to oil is far gentler). That buffer is the reason the driver is scored PER HORIZON below and lands Neutral on the composite.

Step-2b commodity price-TREND overlay (MANDATORY). Oil ETF USO: closed 136.69 on 23 Jul, +31% off the 1 Jul low of 103.27, spot now above a rising 50-DMA with strongly positive 4–8-week momentum. Labelled to spot: WTI ~US$90, Brent ~US$98 — Brent topped ~US$100.69 on 23 Jul (first >$100 since May) on the Hormuz tanker strikes, easing ~4% on 24 Jul. This is a clean uptrend — the opposite of the 10 Jul downtrend read (then WTI ~US$72, USO below a falling 50-DMA). The tape has flipped bullish; the question is durability, not direction.
HorizonReadScore
Short (1-3mo)Tailwind. Oil in a strong uptrend on an escalating Hormuz premium (macro: 65% the Strait stays disrupted). WTI $90 ≫ Suncor breakeven ~$43.70
Medium (6-12mo)Neutral-edge. The premium is path-dependent — the macro's own primary regime-falsifier (35% de-escalation to low-$70s Brent) — the oil curve is backwardated (already pricing it out), and integration damps the benefit. Lands right at the 65 amplification line, just below.63
Long (3-5yr)Neutral. Premium normalises; structural demand fade offsets the low-cost barrel. Macro Oil long = N.54
Amplification role: none. The short driver is a genuine Tailwind (70), but Short is capped at HOLD by the technical-confirmation cap, so there is no STRONG BUY to grant. The medium driver is 63 (<65) — below the Tailwind threshold — so no amplification: base BUY stands at medium and long. We do not STRONG-BUY on a path-dependent geopolitical premium that is the macro report's own primary falsifier. Invalidation floor: WTI sustained < ~US$50.
6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Stance · Pressure
Trend-Following · Tailwind
70
conviction

Energy (XLE) is the macro's most-favoured sector this run: short SO / medium O / long O, with real+fast money flowing IN across all horizons, driven by the live Iran/Hormuz supply shock (Brent ~$98, WTI ~$90; Brent topped ~$100 on 23 Jul). Energy is a high-macro-sensitivity sector, so this is a strong Tailwind. Buying SU here is Trend-Following. The one caveat is symmetric with the driver: the short SO rests on the same path-dependent premium that could bleed on a de-escalation.

Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-20

7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Trend flipped bullish, but overbought and extended — poor fresh-entry risk-reward
58
conf 40%

MTF confluence: strongly bullish (score 78) — a full flip from the bearish 10 Jul tape. Monthly/weekly/daily are all in resistance-breakout uptrends, price is above the 20/50/200-DMA, and relative strength is strong (SU +22% off the late-June low, well ahead of the sector).

Sub-signalReadEffect
MTF confluenceStrongly bullish (78)Lifts timing
Risk-reward (daily)~96% of 52w range; ~+4-16% up vs ~−16% downDrags — unfavourable fresh entry
Position-risk / RSIDaily RSI 73.9 (overbought)Drags — extended, chase risk
Relative strength 1m/6m+ / strongSupportive
Sentiment (grades)Consensus buy, stable, no fresh downgradesNeutral-positive
CatalystQ2 release 4 Aug (binary, inside window), Hormuz headlinesTwo-sided

Net 58: the strong trend is real, but the overbought/extended tape nets it down — timing rewards the holder, not a new buyer chasing at the high. This is precisely what fires the short technical-confirmation cap.

8

Economic Event Risk

High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

DateEventImpactForecastPreviousRelevant?Why
2026-07-29FOMC (Warsh)HighHold 3.50-3.75%, no Sep-cut green light3.75%IndirectRate path sets the 10Y / discount rate; energy also reads the Fed's reaction to the oil shock
2026-07-30US Q2 GDP (adv.)Med~1.8-2.2% ann.~2.0%IndirectDemand read for crude
2026-07-31US Core PCE (Jun)Med+0.2% MoM+0.2%LowLast clean disinflation print before gasoline re-accelerates
2026-08-04Suncor Q2 earnings (webcast Aug 5)HighSegment margins, buyback pace, production—DirectThe next name-specific catalyst; INSIDE the 14-day window — Gate 2 cautions
rollingIran / HormuzHighBrent $95-100 (topped ~$100 on 23 Jul); de-escalation is the falsifier—DirectThe live driver of the whole oil-complex premium

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

DateEventActualForecastSurpriseImpact
2026-07-14Investor-Day targets met earlyRecord upstream production; 3-yr cost/reliability targets hit ahead of schedule—PositiveConfirms the execution thesis

The near-term calendar is macro-heavy (FOMC/GDP/PCE, 29-31 Jul) and geopolitical (Hormuz). The decisive name-specific event is Q2 earnings on 4 Aug (webcast 5 Aug) — inside the 14-day window (Gate 2 cautions), and the reason the next update is scheduled for 5 Aug.

9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
TimeframeTrendDirectionRSIMACDKey S/RBreakoutVol
MonthlyUptrend↑69.3+res breakout1.0xmtf-bullish
WeeklyUptrend↑63.5− (hist)res breakout0.4xmtf-bullish
DailyStrong uptrend↑73.9+res breakout1.1xmtf-bullish
HourlyUptrend↑60.7−res breakout0.9xmtf-neutral
15-minWeakening→47.3±sup breakdown2.6xmtf-bearish
Confluence: strongly_bullish · MTF Score 78

Confluence is strongly bullish — monthly/weekly/daily all in resistance-breakout uptrends, a full flip from the bearish tape of 10 Jul. The catch is the daily RSI at 73.9 (overbought) with price at ~96% of the 52-week range (52w high C$96.53). Strong trend, poor fresh-entry risk-reward. The intraday 15-min already shows the first loss of momentum.

10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.

SU.TO daily, late Apr → 23 Jul 2026 (C$). The June slide to ~C$76 fully reversed: +22% off the late-June low to a 52-week high on the Hormuz oil spike. Price now sits well above the 200-DMA (C$75) but is overbought.

11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.

Bull C$108 (25%)

Hormuz stays disrupted/escalates, WTI holds US$90+/Brent US$100+. Suncor's low-breakeven barrels throw off surging FCF; buybacks accelerate and the market pays up toward the C$118 street high. +16%.

Base C$97 (45%)

The premium stays entrenched (Brent ~US$95-100, near the current spike) without escalating further. After an overbought run the stock consolidates near fair value, then grinds toward the C$103 consensus as Q2 (4 Aug) confirms record production and capital return. ~+4.5%.

Bear C$78 (30%)

A Hormuz de-escalation — the macro's own ~35% case — bleeds the premium out from ~US$98 toward the mid-US$70s Brent. Oil names give back the spike; SU retraces to the C$78-84 base / rising 200-DMA (~C$75). −16%. The company stays cash-generative (breakeven ~US$43), so this is a price give-back, not a thesis break.

Probability-weighted fair value ≈ C$94 (108×0.25 + 97×0.45 + 78×0.30). At C$92.85 the stock sits roughly at fair value — the risk-reward for a fresh entry is thin (~+4-16% up vs ~−16% down), which is exactly why Short is HOLD and the entry is Half-Size. Bear weight (30%) is set close to the macro's 35% de-escalation odds — the same event drives it.

12

Entry / Exit Rules

Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Half-Size1 of 3 groups met — one path open — starter / scale-in

Fundamental — MET

Cheap-ish and driver-supported — but only marginally below fair value after the run.
✅ Price C$92.85 < weighted fair value ~C$94 (met, thin margin)
✅ No earnings within 7 days (Q2 release 4 Aug — 10 days out)
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (63)

Technical — not MET

Trend is up but the entry is overbought — preferred entry is a pullback to the rising 50-DMA.
⛔ Daily close > 50-DMA (C$85.5) on >1.5x volume — above, but volume only 1.1x
⛔ RSI 35-65 (73.9 — OVERBOUGHT)
⛔ OR a tested pullback to C$85-87 (rising 50-DMA) with a higher low — not present

Catalyst — not MET

No confirming event in the window.
· Post-earnings move >+5% with guidance raised (Q2 release 4 Aug, webcast 5 Aug — not yet)
⛔ Volume > 2x the 20-day average

Forecast: Technical group needs the daily RSI to cool below 65 (or a pullback into the C$85-87 rising 50-DMA) — ~1-3 weeks if the parabolic move consolidates. The Fundamental group is met only marginally (price ~C$1 below fair value) and would strengthen on any dip. The Catalyst path opens at the Q2 release on 4 Aug (webcast 5 Aug) — now inside the update window. Confidence: Moderate — depends on the Hormuz premium holding.

Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

⛔ Two daily closes below C$84 (below the 50-DMA / breakout base)

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

⛔ WTI sustained < ~US$50 (erodes the breakeven cushion)
⛔ OR Hormuz de-escalation bleeds crude below US$65 AND SU loses the C$84 base
⛔ OR full-year guidance cut / major oil-sands operational setback

Profit-Target — not LIVE

⛔ Price into C$103 (median target) with RSI > 70 and no quality re-rating

Forecast: Stop (C$84) unlikely in 4-6 weeks barring a Hormuz de-escalation — price sits ~9% above it and above all key MAs. The live near-term risk is the path-dependent premium: a de-escalation (macro ~35%) toward low-US$70s Brent would pressure SU back toward the C$78-84 base. Profit-Target arms as price approaches C$103 (RSI already >70).

Imagine you act at the current price of C$92.85 · as of 25 Jul 2026

What if you bought now?

Chasing here risks ~16% (to the C$78 bear) to gain ~5-16% (base C$97 / bull C$108) — a thin, unfavourable ratio after a +12% run into overbought. The framework says wait for a pullback, not buy the high.

What if you sold now?

A holder sits tight: the trend, the driver and the sector all point up, and the stop (C$84) is well below. The HOLD is a “don't add here,” not a “sell.”
13

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.

No risk budget was provided, so position sizing is not prescribed. Structurally: the Conviction Ladder reads Half-Size (Fundamental group only), and Short is HOLD — i.e. this is a scale-in / hold name here, not a back-up-the-truck entry. A better-sized add comes on a pullback into C$85-87 or a post-earnings confirmation.

14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
  "ticker": "SU.TO",
  "exchange": "TSX",
  "exchange_ticker": "TSX:SU",
  "company": "Suncor Energy Inc.",
  "isin": "CA8672241079",
  "api_ticker": "SU.TO",
  "date": "2026-07-25",
  "version": "v6",
  "currency": "CAD",
  "price_at_rating": 92.85,
  "sector": "Energy - Integrated Oil & Gas",
  "lifecycle_stage": "mature_cash_cow",
  "user_horizon": null,
  "user_allocation_pct": null,
  "portfolio_role": null,
  "signal_short": "HOLD",
  "signal_medium": "BUY",
  "signal_long": "BUY",
  "primary_signal": "BUY",
  "composite_short": 62,
  "composite_medium": 65,
  "composite_long": 68,
  "quality_score": 74,
  "quality_confidence": 72,
  "valuation_score": 61,
  "valuation_confidence": 74,
  "timing_score": 58,
  "timing_confidence": 40,
  "driver_score": 63,
  "driver_label": "Neutral",
  "driver_confidence": 55,
  "driver_name": "Crude oil price (WTI + WCS differential), buffered by integration",
  "driver_short_score": 70,
  "driver_medium_score": 63,
  "driver_long_score": 54,
  "driver_commodity_trend": "WTI ~US$90 / Brent ~US$98 (Brent topped ~US$100.69 on 23 Jul, first >$100 since May, easing ~4% on 24 Jul) on Iran/Hormuz; USO 136.69 on 23 Jul, +31% off the 1 Jul low (103.27), spot ABOVE a rising 50-DMA, 4-8wk momentum strongly positive -> short-term Tailwind (driver 70). Medium 63 (Neutral-edge): integrated downstream margin compression offsets the crude spike + premium is path-dependent (macro's primary falsifier, 35% de-escalation to low-70s Brent) + backwardated forward. Long 54 Neutral (premium normalises, demand fade). No amplification.",
  "driver_invalidation_floor": "WTI sustained < ~US$50",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 70,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
  "economic_alignment_pressure_long": "Tailwind",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
  "amplification_applied": false,
  "amplification_note": "XLE is the macro's top sector (short SO/med O/long O) = Tailwind, and the short driver is a Tailwind (70) - but Short is capped at HOLD by the technical-confirmation cap (overbought RSI 73.9), so no STRONG BUY to grant. Medium driver 63 (<65) after the integrated-buffer + backwardated-forward overlay -> no amplification; base BUY stands medium/long. Do not STRONG-BUY a path-dependent geopolitical premium that is the macro's own primary regime-falsifier.",
  "overall_confidence": 40,
  "warranted_multiple": 15.0,
  "actual_multiple": 11.97,
  "val_multiple_basis": "forward P/E 11.97 (primary energy cross-check EV/EBITDAX 7.77x vs 8x guardrail; trailing P/E 17.65 inflated by cyclical-trough TTM earnings, forward EPS C$7.76 vs trailing C$5.26)",
  "discount_rate_r": 9.0,
  "risk_free_10y": 4.5,
  "g_near": 6.0,
  "g_term": 3.0,
  "warranted_ratio": 0.8,
  "val_band": "attractive",
  "ev_ebitda": 7.77,
  "forward_pe": 11.97,
  "trailing_pe": 17.65,
  "price_to_book": 2.4,
  "fcf_yield_pct": 6.1,
  "dividend_yield_pct": 2.58,
  "payout_pct_eps": 44.5,
  "roe_pct": 14.0,
  "roa_pct": 5.95,
  "net_debt_ebitda": 0.71,
  "roic_pct": 10.5,
  "moat_score": 50,
  "moat_breakdown": {
    "pricing_power": 30,
    "network_effects": 50,
    "switching_costs": 40,
    "cost_advantage": 68,
    "intangible_assets": 60
  },
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": "negative (interest + tax are a net drag; reported net income NOT inflated) -> clean multiple = reported; trailing P/E high only on cyclical-trough TTM earnings",
  "clean_pe": 17.65,
  "clean_peg": 1.18,
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "stable-to-improving",
  "competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
  "competitive_rivals": [
    "Canadian Natural (CNQ.TO)",
    "Cenovus (CVE.TO)",
    "Imperial Oil (IMO.TO)"
  ],
  "industry_benchmark_name": "FCF Breakeven vs Spot (~US$43 vs ~US$90 WTI)",
  "industry_benchmark_value": "~48% of spot",
  "industry_benchmark_score": 88,
  "analyst_consensus_target": 102.8,
  "analyst_target_high": 118,
  "analyst_target_low": 90,
  "analyst_target_median": 103,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 10.7,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 67,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 20,
  "fmp_rating": "B+",
  "fmp_overall_score": 3,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
  "recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
  "scenario_base": 97,
  "scenario_bull": 108,
  "scenario_bear": 78,
  "scenario_base_target": 97,
  "scenario_bull_target": 108,
  "scenario_bear_target": 78,
  "scenario_probabilities": {
    "bull": 0.25,
    "base": 0.45,
    "bear": 0.3
  },
  "expected_value": 94,
  "fair_value": 94,
  "stop_loss": 84,
  "target_price": 97,
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "gates_caution": [
    "Gate 2 Earnings-Event Risk \u2014 Q2 release 2026-08-04 (webcast Aug 5), inside the 14-day window; Timing confidence capped at 40%"
  ],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "short_entry_confirmed": false,
  "short_cap_reason": "Technical entry group unmet (daily RSI 73.9 > 65, overbought; price ~96% of 52w range) and no live catalyst -> short BUY fires on the Fundamental group alone -> capped to HOLD (buy on a pullback into C$85-87 or RSI cooling).",
  "entry_criteria_total": 3,
  "entry_criteria_met": 1,
  "entry_groups_met": 1,
  "entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
  "exit_criteria_total": 3,
  "exit_criteria_met": 0,
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "short_term_buy_live": false,
  "prior_short_buy_outcome": "WIN \u2014 prior short BUY @C$82.97 (10 Jul) reached +11.9%, past the +9% target, before this HOLD downgrade",
  "next_update_date": "2026-08-05",
  "next_update_basis": "Q2 earnings 2026-08-04 (webcast Aug 5) +1 trading day \u2014 inside the 14-day window",
  "next_earnings_date": "2026-08-04",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "analysis_status_badge": "On-Going",
  "finder_ticker": "SU.TO",
  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6 TSX \u00b7 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE"
}

Signal change vs 10 Jul: Short BUY → HOLD (overbought technical cap); Medium/Long BUY held. The prior short BUY (@C$82.97) reached +11.9% — past the +9% target — so this HOLD is a clean, profitable downgrade, not a loss. Driver flipped Neutral(55) → short-Tailwind (composite 63); Timing 54 → 58; Valuation 66 → 61 (rally compressed upside).

15

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_yahoo_quote (SU.TO) Price C$92.85, currency CAD confirmed; targets, ratios
✓
get_financial_ratios / get_income_statement Forward P/E 11.97, EV/EBITDA 7.77, ROE 14.0%, net debt/EBITDA ~0.71x; TTM EPS C$5.26 vs forward C$7.76 (cyclical-trough vs recovery)
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis Confluence strongly bullish; daily RSI 73.9 overbought; 200-DMA C$75.21
✓
get_stock_prices (USO) Step-2b oil overlay: USO 136.69 (23 Jul), +31% off the 1 Jul low, above a rising 50-DMA — uptrend
✓
get_price_target_consensus / get_grades_consensus 20 analysts, consensus C$102.8 (+10.7%); 14/21 bullish; consensus buy
✓
get_ratings_snapshot FMP B+ (3); P/E & P/B sub-scores fell to 2 post-rally
⚠
get_earnings_calendar No row returned; Q2 release date 4 Aug (analyst webcast 5 Aug) confirmed via company announcement (21 Jul) / StockTitan / BOE Report — inside the 14-day window, so Gate 2 cautions
✗
get_related_tickers Errored; competitors (CNQ/CVE/IMO) sourced from domain knowledge + news
✓
Macro state 2026-07-20 XLE SO/O/O; Oil SO/O/N; Iran/Hormuz live (Brent ~$88, WTI ~$83); SU.TO watchlist short O/med O/long N
✓
Polygon/Yahoo news Investor-Day targets hit early, record production; valuation “run ahead” debate
Impact on scores: Gate-3 note: the trailing P/E 17.65x (>15x guardrail) does NOT trip the Valuation Ceiling because the primary energy multiples — EV/EBITDAX 7.77x (<8x) and forward P/E 11.97x (<15x) — are below their guardrails; trailing is inflated by cyclical-trough TTM earnings. Earnings date is approximate; related-tickers failed (peers hand-sourced). No material gaps otherwise.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.