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TSX:SU Suncor Energy Inc.

ISIN: CA8672241079
EnergyIntegrated Oil & GasOil Sands
TSX · NYSE dual-listed (TSX is the security of record) · Calgary, AB · Integrated oil sands + refining + retail Analysis Status: On-Going
All prices, targets and scenarios are in Canadian dollars (C$) — SU trades on both the TSX (C$) and NYSE (US$); the Canadian listing is the security of record.
C$82.97
-0.79%
10 Jul 2026 · Signal v6

Changes Since Last Report — vs. 17 Jun 2026 (C$81.42)

Suncor is reactivated: the name was tracked, then removed from the watchlist, and the latest Stock-Finder run has re-rated it Watchlist, so this is a fresh full report (status flips removed → On-Going). The headline signal upgrades HOLD → BUY at all three horizons: since the last look the shares fell to ~C$76 then bounced with the oil risk-premium to C$82.97 (+1.9%), and on the sector-primary EV/EBITDAX (6.5×) and forward P/E (10.6×) the valuation now clears into the Attractive band against a High-Quality business. The big change is the Underlying Driver: 78 (Strong Tailwind) → 55 (Neutral) — crude has rolled over ~33% from its May peak and sits below a falling 50-day average, so the short-term oil tape is now a live near-term risk, and there is no STRONG-BUY amplification despite the supportive energy-sector macro. Entry conviction is Half-Size (Fundamental path met; Technical not yet). Hard gates and Do-Not-Buy triggers remain clear.

▲ Valuation +4 to 66 (into Attractive) · ▼ Driver −23 to 55 (Tailwind → Neutral) · ▲ Signal HOLD → BUY (S/M/L) · Quality 74 (flat) · Timing 53 → 54 · Status removed → On-Going

DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Suncor Energy Inc.

Suncor is a fully integrated Canadian energy company built around the Athabasca oil sands. It mines and in-situ produces bitumen, upgrades and refines it, and sells the finished fuel through its own ~1,800-station Petro-Canada retail network — so it earns money across the whole chain, from the barrel in the ground to the pump. That integration is the point: when crude weakness squeezes upstream margins, the refining and retail businesses widen their own margins on cheaper feedstock, which softens the swings a pure producer feels in full. Its oil-sands assets are long-life (decades of reserves) and low-decline, giving it one of the more durable, lower-cost production bases among the large Canadian integrateds. Petro-Canada is a recognised national fuel brand, and the company also runs wind farms and a trading arm alongside the core hydrocarbon business.

HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo)BUY6055%Cheap + High-Quality, but oil tape weak — accumulate on weakness
Medium-term (6–12 mo)BUY6560%Attractive valuation + quality offset a neutral oil driver
Long-term (3–5 yr)BUY6862%Long-life low-cost asset base + capital returns
Next update: 2026-07-24 — default +14d (next earnings ~11 Aug is beyond the 14-day window; CPI 14 Jul is a recurring macro release, not a scheduling trigger for this name)
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status3Pillar Detail: Business Quality4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing8Economic Event Risk9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis10Price Chart (6-Month Daily)11Scenario Summary12Entry / Exit Rules13Position Sizing Context14Calibration Snapshot15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.

Business Quality

74
high
conf 72%

Valuation Attractiveness

66
attractive
conf 76%

Entry/Exit Timing

54
neutral
conf 58%

Underlying Drivers

55
Neutral
conf 55%

Economic Alignment

60
Trend-Following
conf 62%
2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅
Financial Distress
Net debt/EBITDA ~0.65×, interest coverage ~8.7×, current ratio 1.42, FCF strongly positive. No distress.
✅
Earnings Event Risk
Next earnings ~11 Aug 2026 — more than 14 days out. No imminent binary print.
✅
Valuation Ceiling
EV/EBITDAX 6.5× < 8× guardrail; forward P/E 10.6× vs ~15× warranted (0.71×). Not in the Expensive band. (Trailing P/E 15.8× is the cyclical metric the framework discounts for energy.)
✅
Accounting / Dilution
Share count FALLING (buybacks: ~1.26bn → ~1.18bn shares y/y). Non-operating items are a net DRAG on reported income, not an inflator — no earnings-quality distortion.
✅
Regulatory / Binary Event
No pending binary regulatory ruling. Oil-sands carbon/policy risk is chronic, not a dated binary.
✅
Severe Driver Collapse
Crude (WTI ~US$72) is well above Suncor's ~US$43 FCF breakeven. Driver is Neutral, not collapsed — gate requires ≤15 with viability-threatening prices.
3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A durable, low-cost integrated with long-life oil-sands reserves, a fortress balance sheet and disciplined capital returns — a price-taker, so its moat is cost and duration, not pricing power.
74
conf 72%
Pillar 1 — Business Quality
Cash-cow integrated: fortress balance sheet, long-life low-decline reserves, refining + retail buffer. Held back from a higher score by commodity price-taking (no pricing power) and a mid-pack ROIC through the cycle.
74
confidence 72%

Lifecycle & sector: Mature / cash-cow, Energy — Integrated Oil & Gas (oil sands + downstream). Scored on cash-cow + energy metrics (FCF yield & breakeven, balance sheet, reserve durability, capital returns) — not growth metrics.

Sub-signalValueBenchmarkScoreRead
FCF generationFCF yield ~6.1%; TTM FCF ~C$6.7bnCash-cow >6% attractive82Strong, self-funds dividend + buyback
Balance sheetNet debt/EBITDA ~0.65×; int. cov ~8.7×<2.0× healthy90Among the least-levered majors
ProfitabilityROE 14.0%; ROA 5.9%; op. margin ~21%ROE >15% strong68Solid, just shy of ‘strong’
Capital returnsDiv yield 2.9%, payout 44.5%; ~C$1.5bn/qtr returnedPayout <75% sustainable78Sustainable, buyback-heavy
Reserve durabilityDecades of long-life, low-decline oil-sands reservesReserve life >12yr strong85A structural quality edge

Industry Benchmark — FCF Breakeven vs Spot

Suncor's corporate FCF breakeven is ~US$43/bbl WTI against spot of ~US$72. Breakeven at ~60% of spot → a comfortable margin of safety. Benchmark score: 84/100 — the business stays cash-generative well into a downcycle, which is the whole quality case for a cyclical.

Competitive Moat

Pricing Power

30
Price-taker on crude

Network Effects

50
N/A — neutral

Switching Costs

42
Petro-Canada brand only

Cost Advantage

72
Long-life, low-decline, integrated

Intangibles

55
Brand + permits

Moat average ≈ 50. The edge is structural cost and duration (tier-1 oil-sands base, vertical integration into refining/retail), not pricing power — no integrated can set the crude price.

Competitive Environment

Suncor competes head-to-head with the other large Canadian integrateds and oil-sands players. Share of the oil-sands complex is stable — this is an oligopoly of long-life assets, not a share-war. The live competitive pressure is on relative capital efficiency and cost-out execution, where peers have narrowed Suncor's historic operational gap.
RivalThreat typeShare trajectoryErosion vector
Canadian Natural (CNQ)Larger low-decline base, best-in-class costStable / CNQ edge on costCost-per-barrel leadership
Cenovus (CVE)Integrated peer, MEG synergies lifting growthStable / CVE momentumDownstream + growth optionality
Imperial Oil (IMO)Integrated, ExxonMobil-backed, high returnsStableCapital-return discipline

Net effect: this is a low-to-moderate competitive threat — no share is being lost, but Suncor is no longer the obvious best operator, which keeps Cost Advantage at 72 (not higher) and Switching Costs modest. competitive_threat_level: moderate; share trajectory: stable.

ROIC & Capital Allocation

ROIC ~10.5% — above cost of capital through the cycle but mid-pack vs the best Canadian operators. Capital allocation is disciplined: buybacks have cut the share count ~6% y/y, the dividend is well-covered (44.5% payout), and management (CEO Rich Kruger) has delivered a credible cost-out and reliability turnaround since 2023. FMP financial-health rating: A- (DCF and ROA sub-scores strong; P/E and D/E sub-scores drag it, which is normal for a cyclical). Insider ownership is modest, as at most large-caps.

4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Attractive on the metrics that matter for a cyclical — EV/EBITDAX 6.5×, forward P/E 10.6× and a 6.1% FCF yield, all inside the Attractive band, with ~21% upside to the C$100.5 analyst mean.
66
conf 76%
Pillar 2 — Valuation Attractiveness
Cheap on the sector-primary multiples; the only ‘full’ reading is trailing P/E, which the framework explicitly discounts for cyclical energy. Not a deep-value screamer — P/B 2.1× is full — but comfortably Attractive.
66
confidence 76%

Warranted-Multiple Anchor

Discount rate r = 4.56% (10-Y Treasury, stamped 8 Jul 2026) + 4.5% ERP + 0.0% risk add-on (Quality ≥ 65) = 9.06%. Disciplined growth g_near = 6% (energy defensive cap, consensus haircut), g_term = 3%. Two-stage warranted P/E ≈ 19.3× raw, capped at the 15× energy guardrail. Actual forward P/E 10.6× ÷ 15× = 0.71 → Attractive. On the sector-primary EV/EBITDAX: 6.5× vs the 8× guardrail = 0.82 → Attractive-edge. Both primary lenses land Attractive.
MultipleSUSector medianOwn 5yr decileRead
EV/EBITDAX (primary)6.5×~6–7×~5 (mid)In-line / attractive
Forward P/E10.6×~11×low-midAttractive
Trailing P/E15.8×~14×mid-highFull — but cyclical, discounted
Price / Book2.1×~1.6×highFull
FCF yield6.1%>5% attractive—Attractive

FCF yield (universal anchor): ~6.1% (FCF/EV) — firmly in the attractive band for a cash-cow. Implied growth read: at C$82.97 on a 10.6× forward P/E the market embeds roughly flat-to-low-single-digit long-run growth; our disciplined estimate is ~6% near-term fading to 3% — so the price does not demand heroic growth, it demands only that crude doesn't collapse.

Embedded Optionality / Free Upside

The core in-production business justifies most of the C$82.97 price. On top, largely un-priced: (1) oil-price beta above the base deck — a WTI move back to US$80+ (Hormuz premium, tighter balances) flows almost fully to FCF; (2) continued buyback compounding — every ~6%/yr of shares retired lifts per-share value with no operational risk; (3) cost-out / reliability upside under the current management turnaround. None is a base case; together they cushion the downside and are the reason to keep the name on. Tilt: +4.
Analyst consensus (C$, Yahoo, 19 analysts)Value
Mean targetC$100.5 (+21%)
MedianC$103
High / LowC$118 / C$72
Grades distribution5 Strong-Buy · 7 Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell · 1 Strong-Sell → Buy consensus
FMP health ratingA- (score 4/5)

Note: FMP's US-listing price-target-summary reads stale (mixes older US$ targets); the CAD Yahoo consensus above is the correct read for the TSX security.

5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Primary Driver
Crude oil price (WCS / WTI)
55
Neutral — no amplification
Primary driver — Crude oil price (WCS heavy differential + WTI benchmark)
55

Suncor is a geared bet on the direction of crude — but its refining + retail integration means downstream margins widen on cheaper feedstock, so it feels the swing less than a pure producer. That buffer is why the driver reads Neutral, not Headwind, despite a weak oil tape.

MANDATORY commodity price-TREND overlay (Step 2b)

Oil (USO proxy) peaked ~US$153 in mid-May and fell to ~US$103 by early July — a ~33% drawdown, below a falling 50-day average, on OPEC+ supply increases and softening demand. A live Iran/Hormuz risk-premium then bounced it to ~US$109–112. So the level is fine (well above breakeven) but the trend is down with a geopolitical spike layered on top. Per the rule, a live commodity downtrend caps the short-term driver at Neutral/Headwind and removes short-term amplification — you do not STRONG-BUY a producer into a falling commodity. This is scored consistently with EOG and FANG this same run (both held BUY-not-STRONG on the oil downtrend).
HorizonReadLabel
Short (0–4w)Spot below falling 50-DMA; risk-premium bounce is fragile; OPEC+ adding barrelsHeadwind / Neutral
Medium (1–6m)Range-bound US$60–75; Hormuz path-dependent; Oil macro signal NeutralNeutral
Long (6–18m)Structural: long-run demand fade vs supply discipline; Oil macro Neutral, but Suncor's low breakeven enduresNeutral — mild tailwind

Commodity trend read (recorded): spot ~US$72 WTI; 50-DMA falling; 4–8wk momentum negative with a late risk-premium bounce. Score 55 → Neutral (36–64 band) → no amplification at any horizon. The oil bear is a live near-term risk, not a distant tail.

Thesis-invalidation floor: WTI sustained below ~US$50 would pressure the dividend-plus-buyback math and break the case — the tape is already moving toward, though not at, that level, so this dial is worth watching now.

6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Stance · Pressure
Trend-Following · Tailwind
60
conviction

Suncor is not in the macro report's Economic Watchlist, so alignment is read from the GICS-sector map: Energy (XLE) is rated O/O/O (Outperform short/medium/long) — a capital-flow-IN sector under the 'Higher-for-Longer / Stagflation-lite' regime, where an energy-inflation floor and the Iran/Hormuz premium favour the sector. That makes the economic PRESSURE a Tailwind and the stance Trend-Following (conviction 60). BUT the underlying Oil asset-class signal is only O/N/N (fades medium/long), and amplification needs the Underlying-Driver ≥ 65 as well — it is 55 (Neutral) — so the Tailwind does NOT lift the BUY to STRONG BUY at any horizon. It leaves the base BUY unchanged.

Source: sector-map (XLE) · Macro report 2026-07-09

7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Higher-timeframe uptrend intact but the daily is weakening — shares bounced off the ~C$76 swing low to C$83 on the oil risk-premium, still below a falling 50-day average. A recovering tape, not a confirmed breakout.
54
conf 58%
Pillar 3 — Entry/Exit Timing
Monthly/weekly still up, daily weakening; price reclaiming off a swing low but not yet above the 50-DMA on volume. Neutral — a scale-in tape, not a chase.
54
confidence 58%
Sub-signalReadScore
MTF confluenceMonthly/weekly uptrend, daily weakening, intraday mixed57
Risk-reward (ATR/stop)~C$76 swing-low support ~8% below; ATR ~C$1.8/day; stop is reasonable58
Relative strength6-month +~33% (strong vs SPY); 1-month recovering with the group66
Macro overlayXLE Outperform short; energy flow IN; VIX moderate68
SentimentGrades mostly ‘maintain’ (JPM upgrade Jan; Scotiabank assumed Outperform C$104 Jun); Zacks value screen. Net neutral-positive55
Catalyst densityNo earnings for >30 days; calendar calm72

Read: the shares fell from a C$96.53 May high to ~C$76 in late June, then bounced ~9% to C$82.97 as the oil risk-premium returned. That puts price back near — but still below — a falling 50-day average (~C$85). Daily RSI ~51 (neutral). This is a recovering tape: the reachable early entry is the Fundamental path (it's cheap), with the Technical path completing only on a clean reclaim of the 50-DMA on volume or a re-test of ~C$76 with a higher low.

8

Economic Event Risk

High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

DateEventImpactForecastPreviousRelevant?Why
2026-07-14US CPI (Jun)HighMoM -0.1% / Core +0.3%MoM +0.5%⚠ IndirectInflation print sets rate path → USD & oil demand sentiment
2026-07-16US Retail Sales (Jun)High+0.3%+0.9%⚠ IndirectDemand signal for refined-product consumption
2026-07-29FOMC Rate DecisionHighHold 3.75%3.75%⚠ IndirectEnergy is rate-sensitive via USD & global demand
2026-08-11Suncor Q2 2026 earningsHigh——✅ YesThe next company-specific catalyst — FCF, buyback pace, oil-sands volumes

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

DateEventActualForecastSurpriseImpact
2026-07-06ISM Services PMI (Jun)54.054.0in-lineNeutral — demand steady, not accelerating
2026-07-09Existing Home Sales (Jun)4.09M4.2MbelowMild negative for growth — stag-lite consistent

No high-impact company-specific event inside 14 days — Q2 earnings (~11 Aug) is the next real catalyst. The macro prints (CPI 14 Jul, FOMC 29 Jul) affect Suncor only indirectly, through the USD and global oil-demand sentiment, so they don't trigger a WAIT-for-event override. Energy is a High-macro-sensitivity sector, but none of these releases is inside the 3-trading-day window.

9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
TimeframeTrendDirectionRSIMACDKey S/RBreakoutVol
MonthlyUptrend ↑Bullish62+, risingS: C$70 R: C$96Resist. breakout0.3×
WeeklyUptrend ↑Bullish51+, fadingS: C$76 R: C$96None0.9×
DailyWeakening →Neutral51-, turning upS: C$76 R: C$85None0.7×
HourlyUptrend ↑Bullish54+, flatS: C$81 R: C$84Resist. breakout—
15-minWeakening →Neutral44-, flatS: C$82 R: C$84Support breakdown—
Confluence: Mostly Bullish (higher-TF up, daily weak) · MTF Score 57

The primary (monthly) and intermediate (weekly) trends remain up — SU is well above its rising longer-term averages after a +33% six-month run. The daily has been weakening off the May high but is turning up from the C$76 swing low. Classic 'higher-timeframe uptrend, lower-timeframe recovering' setup: the buy-the-dip branch is the reachable entry, with a clean reclaim of the ~C$85 falling 50-DMA on volume the confirmation to size up. (Trend labels cross-read from the NYSE:SU intraday series; levels are the C$ TSX prices.)

10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.

SU.TO 6-month daily (C$) with the falling 50-day average. Price bounced off the ~C$76 swing low back to C$83 on the oil risk-premium, still below the 50-DMA.

11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.

Bull C$104 (30%)

WTI re-rates back to US$80+ (Hormuz premium sticks / balances tighten); heavy differentials narrow; buybacks + a supportive macro carry the shares to the C$100+ analyst mean/high. ~+25% from C$82.97.

Base C$92 (50%)

WTI holds a US$60–70 range; Suncor keeps funding the dividend + buyback from FCF and grinds toward the lower half of the analyst range as the cost-out story plays through. ~+11%. The probability-weighted centre of gravity (blended fair value ≈ C$91).

Bear C$70 (20%)

Oil breaks to the US$50s on OPEC+ supply + a demand slowdown and the Hormuz premium bleeds out; the driver flips to a clear Headwind and multiple + earnings compress together. ~−16%. Competitive angle: no share loss, but a peer (CNQ) cost edge would show more in a low-price world.

Probability-weighted fair value

0.30×C$104 + 0.50×C$92 + 0.20×C$70 = ≈ C$91 — ~+10% above the C$82.97 price, Base most probable. The whole distribution keys off crude: the bull and bear are the same company at a different oil price.

12

Entry / Exit Rules

Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Half-Size1 of 3 groups met — one path open — starter / scale-in

Fundamental — MET

It's cheap with a live-enough driver — the reachable early entry.
✅ Price C$82.97 < fair value ~C$92 (base)
✅ No earnings within 7 days (next ~11 Aug)
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (55)

Technical — not MET

Recovering but not confirmed — wants a 50-DMA reclaim on volume OR a higher-low re-test of C$76.
⛔ Daily close > 50-DMA (~C$85) on >1.5× volume
⛔ OR a tested bounce off C$76 support with a higher low
✅ RSI 35–65 (51)
✅ MACD histogram positive ≥ 2 days OR turning up off support

Catalyst — not MET

No event in the 7-day window.
· Post-earnings move > +5% with guidance raised
⛔ Volume > 2× the 20-day average

Forecast: Fundamental group is MET now (1 of 3 → Half-Size). Technical group → Moderate confidence, ~1–3 weeks: price at C$82.97 vs a falling 50-DMA ~C$85 — a reclaim needs either the oil bounce to hold (catalyst-dependent on Hormuz headlines/CPI) or a shallow pullback to C$76 that puts in a higher low. If crude rolls over again, the reclaim is Unlikely without a fresh catalyst and the entry stays Half-Size on the Fundamental path alone. Catalyst group is earnings-dependent (~11 Aug) — not projectable.

Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

⛔ Two daily closes below C$74 (below the C$76 swing low)

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

⛔ WTI sustained below ~US$50 (breaks the dividend+buyback math)
⛔ Full-year guidance cut OR the driver turns to a durable Headwind
⛔ Competitive: a peer (CNQ) opens a durable cost-per-barrel gap that compresses Suncor's relative FCF

Profit-Target — not LIVE

⛔ Price into C$103 (median target) AND RSI > 70 AND quality not re-rated higher

Forecast: Stop-loss Unlikely in the next 4–6 weeks — C$74 is ~11% below and below the swing low; it would take a fresh oil leg down. RISK TRIGGER: the oil downtrend resuming (OPEC+ barrels + demand miss) or a Hormuz de-escalation that bleeds the premium out. Profit-target (C$103) is ~24% away — not in view near-term.

Imagine you act at the current price of C$82.97 · as of 10 Jul 2026

What if you bought now?

You'd be risking ~C$9 / −11% to the C$74 stop (−16% to the C$70 bear) to gain ~C$9 / +11% to the C$92 base (+25% to the C$104 bull).
  • Risking: downside to the C$74 stop (−11%) and the C$70 bear (−16%); you're buying with the Technical path NOT yet met — into a weak oil tape, below a falling 50-DMA — so the near-term path is choppy and Hormuz-headline-driven.
  • Gaining: the C$92 base (+11%) and C$104 bull (+25%) you start capturing now, plus a ~2.9% dividend and buyback compounding while you wait, plus the free oil-price and cost-out optionality. Risk-reward from here is roughly 1:1 to base, better to bull — fair, not compelling, which is exactly why this is a Half-Size starter, not a back-up-the-truck.

Read: acting now is reasonable on the Fundamental path, but waiting for a 50-DMA reclaim (or a C$76 higher-low) materially improves the entry and would earn a second size-up.

What if you sold now?

You'd be giving up ~+11% base-case upside (and +25% bull) to protect against the ~−16% bear drawdown.
  • Giving up: upside to the C$92 base (+11%) and the analyst mean C$100.5 (+21%); the 2.9% dividend and buyback compounding; and you'd be selling ~10% below our C$91 blended fair value.
  • Protecting: capital if the C$70 bear plays out on a fresh oil leg down. But NO exit rule is triggered right now — no stop hit, no profit-target, no thesis break — so there is no mechanical reason to sell. This is a hold/accumulate zone, not an exit.
13

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.

Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified for this reactivation run. For context only: the §12 Conviction Ladder reads Half-Size (1 of 3 entry paths met — Fundamental), i.e. a starter / scale-in position, with room to add on a Technical confirmation. ATR ~C$1.8/day (~2.2% of price); beta ~0.57 (defensive vs the market). This is NOT advice — specify your allocation for sizing guidance.

14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
  "ticker": "SU.TO",
  "exchange": "TSX",
  "exchange_ticker": "TSX:SU",
  "company": "Suncor Energy Inc.",
  "isin": "CA8672241079",
  "api_ticker": "SU.TO",
  "date": "2026-07-10",
  "version": "v6",
  "currency": "CAD",
  "price_at_rating": 82.97,
  "sector": "Energy - Integrated Oil & Gas",
  "lifecycle_stage": "mature_cash_cow",
  "user_horizon": null,
  "user_allocation_pct": null,
  "portfolio_role": null,
  "signal_short": "BUY",
  "signal_medium": "BUY",
  "signal_long": "BUY",
  "primary_signal": "BUY",
  "composite_short": 60,
  "composite_medium": 65,
  "composite_long": 68,
  "quality_score": 74,
  "quality_confidence": 72,
  "valuation_score": 66,
  "valuation_confidence": 76,
  "timing_score": 54,
  "timing_confidence": 58,
  "driver_score": 55,
  "driver_label": "Neutral",
  "driver_confidence": 55,
  "driver_name": "Crude oil price (WCS/WTI)",
  "driver_commodity_trend": "WTI ~US$72; USO -33% from May peak; spot below a FALLING 50-DMA; 4-8wk momentum negative with a late Iran/Hormuz risk-premium bounce -> short-term Headwind/Neutral, no amplification",
  "driver_invalidation_floor": "WTI sustained < ~US$50",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 60,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-09",
  "amplification_applied": false,
  "amplification_note": "Economic pressure is Tailwind (XLE O/O/O) but the Underlying Driver is 55 (<65, Neutral) after the Step-2b oil-downtrend overlay, so no STRONG BUY at any horizon. Base BUY stands. Consistent with EOG/FANG this run.",
  "overall_confidence": 58,
  "warranted_multiple": 15.0,
  "actual_multiple": 10.62,
  "val_multiple_basis": "forward P/E (primary cross-check EV/EBITDAX 6.5x vs 8x guardrail)",
  "discount_rate_r": 9.06,
  "risk_free_10y": 4.56,
  "g_near": 6.0,
  "g_term": 3.0,
  "warranted_ratio": 0.71,
  "val_band": "attractive",
  "ev_ebitda": 6.54,
  "forward_pe": 10.62,
  "trailing_pe": 15.77,
  "price_to_book": 2.15,
  "fcf_yield_pct": 6.1,
  "dividend_yield_pct": 2.89,
  "payout_pct_eps": 44.5,
  "roe_pct": 14.0,
  "roa_pct": 5.95,
  "net_debt_ebitda": 0.65,
  "roic_pct": 10.5,
  "moat_score": 50,
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": "negative (non-operating items are a net drag; reported net income NOT inflated) -> clean_pe ~= reported",
  "clean_pe": 15.77,
  "clean_peg": 1.69,
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
  "competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
  "industry_benchmark_name": "FCF Breakeven vs Spot (~US$43 vs ~US$72 WTI)",
  "industry_benchmark_value": "~60% of spot",
  "industry_benchmark_score": 84,
  "analyst_consensus_target": 100.53,
  "analyst_target_high": 118,
  "analyst_target_low": 72,
  "analyst_target_median": 103,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 21.2,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 60,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 19,
  "fmp_rating": "A-",
  "fmp_overall_score": 4,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
  "recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
  "scenario_base": 92,
  "scenario_bull": 104,
  "scenario_bear": 70,
  "scenario_base_target": 92,
  "scenario_bull_target": 104,
  "scenario_bear_target": 70,
  "scenario_probabilities": {
    "bull": 0.3,
    "base": 0.5,
    "bear": 0.2
  },
  "expected_value": 91,
  "fair_value": 91,
  "stop_loss": 74,
  "target_price": 92,
  "hard_gate_state": "clear",
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "gates_caution": [],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "entry_criteria_total": 3,
  "entry_criteria_met": 1,
  "entry_groups_met": 1,
  "entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
  "exit_criteria_total": 3,
  "exit_criteria_met": 0,
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "short_term_buy_live": true,
  "next_update_date": "2026-07-24",
  "next_update_basis": "default +14d (next earnings ~11 Aug beyond the 14-day window)",
  "next_earnings_date": "2026-08-11",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "analysis_status_badge": "On-Going",
  "finder_ticker": "SU.TO",
  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6 TSX \u00b7 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
  "reactivated_from": "removed"
}

Reactivation from 'removed' → On-Going. BUY/BUY/BUY (was HOLD/HOLD/HOLD): High Quality (74) + Attractive valuation (66, EV/EBITDAX 6.5× & fwd P/E 10.6×) drive a base BUY at all horizons; the Underlying Driver fell 78→55 (oil rolled over) so there is NO STRONG-BUY amplification despite the energy-sector macro tailwind — scored consistently with EOG/FANG this run. Entry Half-Size (Fundamental path only). Gates and DNB clear. Next update 24 Jul.

15

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_yahoo_quote (SU.TO) CAD price C$82.97, mcap, targets, ratios — verified share count ~1.18bn (falling)
✓
get_yahoo_analyst_targets (SU.TO) CAD consensus: mean C$100.5, 19 analysts, Buy
✓
get_company_profile / get_financial_ratios (SU) profile, ROE 14%, net debt/EBITDA ~0.65×, FCF yield
✓
get_income_statement (SU, 6q) earnings-quality decomp — non-op income a DRAG, not an inflator
⚠
get_multi_timeframe_analysis (SU) US-listing trend labels used; CAD levels from SU.TO price series
✓
get_stock_prices (USO) oil trend overlay — −33% from May peak, below falling 50-DMA
⚠
get_price_target_summary (SU) FMP US summary stale (US$/older) — superseded by CAD Yahoo consensus
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades (SU) Buy consensus; JPM upgrade Jan, mostly maintains
✓
get_ratings_snapshot (SU) A- financial health
✓
get_economic_calendar / get_economic_series DGS10 10-Y 4.56% (8 Jul) for the warranted anchor; CPI/FOMC dates
✗
get_earnings_calendar (SU) empty — next earnings ~11 Aug confirmed via web (TipRanks/company)
Impact on scores: High data coverage. The main provenance haircut is the .TO/US split: fundamentals and trend labels come from the US listing (SU) while all prices/targets/scenarios are the CAD TSX security (SU.TO) — handled explicitly. get_earnings_calendar returned empty, so the ~11 Aug date was web-confirmed. Overall confidence is set by the Timing pillar (58%), the weakest link, reflecting the mixed tape.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.