Do-Not-Buy triggers checked & cleared: (1) leverage+rising-rates — no, net debt/EBITDA 0.71x; (2) valuation at 5-yr extreme — no; (3) persistent negative EPS revisions — no, forward EPS C$7.42 vs trailing C$5.26 (rising); (4) insider-selling spike — none detected; (5) structural model threat — energy-transition demand fade is a multi-year headwind, not an imminent shock. Hard-gate state: CLEAR.
Energy → Integrated Oil & Gas (oil-sands mining + in-situ + upgrading + Petro-Canada refining/retail). Lifecycle: Mature / Cash-Cow — minimal volume growth, high and stable cash generation, capital returned to shareholders. Metric focus: FCF generation & yield, FCF breakeven, dividend sustainability, net debt/EBITDA, ROIC through cycle.
| Sub-signal | Value (CAD, TTM) | Benchmark / Peer context | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash generation | FCF C$6.68B · FCF yield 6.2% (on EV) / 6.9% (on mkt cap) · FCF/sh C$5.65 | >5% attractive for energy; cash-cow target >6% | 78 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net debt C$11.5B · Net debt/EBITDA 0.71x · current ratio 1.42 | <1.0x = "strong" (Energy table); fortress | 86 |
| Profitability vs peers | Operating margin 20.8% · net margin 12.4% · ROE 14.0% · ROA 5.95% | ROA 5.95% top-tier among integrateds; ROE solid | 70 |
| Revenue / production trajectory | TTM revenue C$54.5B; record Q1 upstream output; volume flat-to-modest, price-driven | Cash-cow — growth not the lens; FX/price swings dominate | 55 |
| Dividend sustainability | C$2.40/yr · yield 2.95% · payout 44.5% of EPS / ~36% of FCF · growing (0.545→0.57→0.60/q) | 40–60% of FCF healthy; well inside the band | 80 |
| Reserve life (web-estimated) | Oil-sands reserve life ~25+ yrs; long-life, low-decline base | >12 yrs = "strong"; among the longest-life globally | 82 |
Moat average = 49/100. Integration (mine-to-pump) and a 25-year reserve life are real structural advantages, but the absence of pricing power is the defining limitation of any oil producer — it is why Quality tops out in the low-70s rather than the 80s despite the elite balance sheet.
| Component | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC vs WACC | Through-cycle ROIC ~10–11% (NOPAT ~C$6.4B / invested capital ~C$60B) above an ~9% WACC at current oil; cyclical | 62 |
| Capital-allocation discipline | Kruger-era turnaround: record output, debt cut to fortress levels, monthly buyback raised C$275M→C$350M (~C$4B for 2026), growing dividend, buybacks done below NAV | 76 |
| Management skin in the game | Modest insider ownership (typical mega-cap); disciplined repurchases at reasonable valuations; no SBC dilution concern | 56 |
FMP financial-health cross-reference: A- (overall 4/5) — ROA sub-score 5/5, ROE 4/5, DCF 4/5 confirm the high-quality read; P/E and P/B sub-scores 2/5 reflect that it is not statistically cheap on book/earnings, which is consistent with the Fair (not Attractive) valuation in §4.
| Reference (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sector median (25%) | EV/EBITDA 6.9x — middle of the integrated peer band (CNQ richer on quality, Cenovus/Imperial similar); fwd P/E 11.0x reasonable | 55 |
| Own historical decile (20%) | EV/EBITDA ~6.9x and P/B 2.1x sit mid-range within SU's own 5-yr band — neither washed-out nor stretched | 50 |
| Growth-adjusted (15%) | FCF yield 6.2% attractive in absolute terms; tempered because the cash flow is cyclically high at $95 oil | 60 |
| Reverse DCF (25%) | At EV C$108B / FCF C$6.7B / ~9% WACC the market implies only ~2.8% perpetual FCF growth — undemanding on current cash, fair once oil normalises | 58 |
| Analyst target signal (10%) | Price C$81.42 is 17.9% below consensus C$99.16 and 18.6% below median C$100 → ">20% band" proximity; strong upside read (but targets may lag the oil pullback) | 86 |
| Grades consensus (5%) | 5 Strong-Buy · 6 Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell · 1 Strong-Sell (n=20). Bullish 55%, but 40% holds → "Buy with >30% holds" | 55 |
6.2% on EV / 6.9% on market cap at ~$95 WTI — squarely in the "attractive" 5–8% band. Caveat: at a mid-cycle ~US$70 WTI, FCF would compress toward ~C$4.5–5B and the yield toward ~4.5% — "fair", not cheap. The honest read is that the headline yield is a function of the oil spike as much as the franchise.
At today's price the market is paying for roughly 2.8% annual perpetual FCF growth. Because the buyback shrinks the share count ~3–4%/yr (25% reduction targeted by 2028 at just $65 WTI), per-share FCF can grow even with flat production — so the implied bar is undemanding on current cash flow, and slightly demanding once you normalise oil. This is the crux of the Fair-not-cheap verdict.
Range C$72–C$118 on the 0–100% bar. Consensus C$99.16 implies +21.8%; even the low (C$72) is only ~12% below spot, a relatively narrow downside band. Caveat: the May oil spike to $112 (now ~$95) means some targets predate the pullback and may be stale on the high side.
FMP ratings cross-check: A- overall but P/E 2/5 and P/B 2/5 — i.e. the independent model agrees it is not statistically cheap on earnings/book, while DCF 4/5 sees value — exactly the "fair, leaning attractive" straddle this pillar lands on.
| Horizon (weight) | Assessment | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | WTI climbed from a ~$70 base through a May spike to $112 (Iran/Hormuz), now ~$95; 12–24mo trajectory strongly up (FRED DCOILWTICO, to 2026-06-08) | 80 |
| Current (50%) | WTI ~US$95 / Brent ~US$97 vs SU funding breakeven ~US$43 — hugely cash-generative; well above the C$23B plan's US$65 assumption | 90 |
| Forward (25%) | Binary on Hormuz; futures backwardated (strip < spot ~$80); OPEC discipline supportive near-term, structural demand fade beyond ~12–18mo | 58 |
Driver score = 0.25·80 + 0.50·90 + 0.25·58 = 78 → Strong Tailwind. Eligible to amplify a base BUY → STRONG BUY (short/medium). However, the base signal is HOLD at every horizon, and a HOLD is never amplified — so the driver does not change the signal; it raises conviction that the downside is cushioned and flags the upside on a Hormuz escalation. The long-run demand-fade is precisely why this HOLD has no path to upward amplification at the long horizon even though Quality is high.
Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained WTI move below ~US$50 would compress free funds flow toward the breakeven and pressure the buyback pace (the dividend is covered well below that); below ~US$43 the funding breakeven is breached. Driver confidence 60% (−15 for inherent oil volatility / low forward reliability).
Source: SU is not yet in the macro report's Economic Watchlist Forecast, so alignment is mapped by GICS sector Energy → XLE from the Driver-Sector Impact Matrix in MacroDriver Weekly 2026-06-13 (regime: Stagflation 44%, dominant drivers Iran/Hormuz "Critical" 5/5, Private-Credit stress 5/5, hawkish Global Monetary Policy 4/5).
| Signal | Short | Medium | Long |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLE (Energy sector) | Strong Outperform | Outperform | Underperform |
| USO (oil) | Outperform | Neutral | Underperform |
| Capital flow (XLE) | IN | IN | OUT |
Pressure (anchored on Medium): Tailwind — energy is the macro-favoured sector under an oil-shock stagflation regime, with capital rotating IN short and medium. The Long signal flips to Headwind (demand fade / energy transition). Stance: Trend-Following (going long rides the economic tailwind), conviction 72 = strength of that tailwind.
Amplification outcome: the Tailwind pressure would enable a STRONG BUY if the base were BUY — but the base is HOLD at all three horizons, so no amplification fires and the base signal is unchanged. Confidence 70% (macro report 4 days old — fresh).
| Sub-signal (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | Monthly & weekly uptrend (resistance breakouts) vs daily weakening / hourly & 15-min downtrend — higher-TF bull, lower-TF pullback | 57 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | Price C$81.42 sitting on weekly support C$81.0; daily ATR C$2.71. A tight stop is possible, but a clean break opens an air-pocket to SMA200 C$71.9 — moderate | 58 |
| Macro overlay (20%) | Energy sector strongly in favour (XLE rotation IN); VIX 16.2 risk-on; offset by hawkish-hold Fed & 10Y at 4.47% | 68 |
| Sentiment (15%) | Grades mostly "maintain" (RBC Outperform, Goldman Buy); one Jun-05 downgrade to Neutral on valuation after the rally; news mixed-positive (record Q1, Elliott stake) — net neutral | 50 |
| Catalysts (15%) | FOMC today (Jun 17); no company event within 14d (earnings Aug 11); oil/Hormuz & weekly EIA are the live wires — 1 focused macro catalyst | 55 |
Beaten back over the last month (~−13% from the mid-May ~C$94 area as oil unwound from $112), roughly flat over 3 months, but up ~+36% over 6 months. 52-week range position ≈ 67% ((81.42−50.97)/(96.53−50.97)) — upper-mid. Recently a relative laggard within a strong sector; secular leader. Position-risk: at support, oversold on the hourly — a bounce setup if C$81 holds; a daily close below it is the tell that more downside is coming.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast / Prev | Relevant to SU? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 (today) | FOMC decision + projections + presser | High | Hold 3.75% (macro: hawkish hold, ~25% hike flagged) | ⚠️ Indirect — sets risk appetite & USD; a hawkish surprise pressures all cyclicals |
| 2026-06-17 | Retail Sales MoM (May) | High | +0.5% / +0.5% | ⚠️ Demand signal |
| 2026-06-25 | Core PCE MoM (May) | High | +0.2% / +0.2% (macro: +0.3% sticky) | ⚠️ Inflation/rate path |
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment (Jun) | High | +70k / 4.5% | ⚠️ Growth/demand signal |
| Date | Event | Actual / Fcst | Read for SU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | CPI YoY (May) | 4.2% / 4.2% (inline; up from 3.8%) | Sticky/rising headline inflation — consistent with the oil-shock stagflation regime; keeps the Fed hawkish |
| 2026-06-11 | PPI MoM (May) | 1.1% / 0.7% (hot) | Hot — energy-led producer prices; supports energy revenues but pressures multiples |
| 2026-06-12 | Michigan Sentiment (Jun) | 48.9 / 46.0 (beat, off a low base) | Weak absolute level — demand caution medium-term |
The macro tape is oil-led inflation + a hawkish Fed — supportive of SU's revenues but a headwind to multiples, and the reason energy is "Strong Outperform short, fading long" in the macro report. FOMC today is the near-term swing factor for the whole tape; it is a reason the short-term signal is HOLD (wait-and-see) rather than a buy, but not a hard WAIT-override since oil — not rates — is SU's binding driver.
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | MACD | Key S / R (CAD) | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | 65.6 | + rising | S 48.4 · R 58.6 | Resistance breakout | 0.73x |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | 51.3 | + but rolling | S 81.0 · R 96.5 | Resistance breakout | 0.40x |
| Daily | Weakening → | 37.6 | − falling | S 81.0 · R 92–96.5 | Support breakdown | 0.99x |
| Hourly | Downtrend ↓ | 27.9 | − (oversold) | S 81.1 · R 83.5 | Support breakdown | 1.71x |
| 15-min | Downtrend ↓ | 40.8 | − flattening | S 81.1 · R 83.1 | Support breakdown | 4.5x |
| Confluence: MIXED / TRANSITIONING — MTF trend score ≈ 57 (tool flags near-term "bearish") | ||||||
Daily SMA stack: price C$81.42 is below SMA20 (89.1) and SMA50 (89.2) but well above the rising SMA200 (71.9) — an intermediate pullback inside a secular uptrend. The pattern is higher-TF bullish + lower-TF pullback: normally a buy-the-dip setup, but the daily support breakdown at C$81 and falling daily MACD say the dip has not yet stabilised. Key level: weekly support C$81.0 — a daily close that holds it (with the hourly RSI bouncing off 28) would mark the bounce; a clean break opens the gap to SMA200 C$71.9.
Trigger: Hormuz disruption or sustained OPEC discipline keeps WTI $100–115; accelerated buybacks + dividend hikes; SU re-rates toward the C$118 analyst high.
Trigger: War premium partly unwinds but oil stays elevated ($75–90); record output + ~C$4B buyback compound; stock drifts back toward consensus C$96–100.
Trigger: Hormuz de-escalates and stagflation/recession hits demand → WTI $60–65; FCF compresses, multiple de-rates; price tests SMA200 (C$71.9) and below.
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Daily ATR | C$2.71 (≈3.3% of price) | A typical day moves ~3% — wider than the broad market |
| Beta vs market | 0.56 | Low headline beta, but oil-price (not index) risk is the real exposure — don't read 0.56 as "low risk" |
| 52-week range | C$50.97 – C$96.53 (now ~67% of range) | Has nearly doubled off the low; capable of fast 15–20% drawdowns on oil swings |
| Risk per share to stop | ~C$3.9 (entry C$81.42 → stop C$77.50) | Size so that a stop-out is a tolerable % of capital |
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance. No portfolio role was provided, so no role tag is applied. For a medium/long entry, staggering across 2–3 tranches (now near C$81 support · on a reclaim of C$85–89 · into a C$72 pullback) reduces entry-timing risk on a name this oil-sensitive.
calibration-SU.TO-20260617-1030.json so the next run can compute deltas and the watchlist monitor can act without parsing HTML. This is SU's first report, so there is no prior calibration to diff against (no "Changes Since Last Report").{
"ticker": "SU.TO", "exchange_ticker": "TSX:SU", "company": "Suncor Energy Inc.",
"isin": "CA8672241079", "api_ticker": "SU.TO", "date": "2026-06-17", "version": "v6",
"currency": "CAD", "price_at_rating": 81.42,
"sector": "Energy - Integrated Oil & Gas", "lifecycle_stage": "mature_cash_cow",
"user_horizon": null, "user_allocation_pct": null, "portfolio_role": null,
"signal_short": "HOLD", "signal_medium": "HOLD", "signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"quality_score": 74, "quality_confidence": 70,
"quality_detail": {"industry_benchmark_name": "FCF Breakeven vs Spot (~US$43 vs ~US$95 WTI)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "45% of spot", "industry_benchmark_score": 88,
"moat_score": 49, "roic_pct": 10.5, "capital_allocation": 76, "management_skin_in_game": 56,
"net_debt_ebitda": 0.71, "fcf_yield_pct": 6.2, "dividend_yield_pct": 2.95, "payout_pct_eps": 44.5},
"valuation_score": 62, "valuation_confidence": 73,
"valuation_detail": {"ev_ebitda": 6.9, "forward_pe": 11.0, "fcf_yield_pct": 6.2,
"implied_growth_rate": 2.8, "historical_valuation_decile": 5, "fair_value_est": 88,
"analyst_consensus_target": 99.16, "analyst_target_high": 118, "analyst_target_low": 72,
"analyst_target_median": 100, "analyst_target_upside_pct": 21.8,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "buy", "analyst_bullish_pct": 55, "analyst_coverage_count": 19,
"fmp_rating": "A-", "fmp_overall_score": 4},
"timing_score": 53, "timing_confidence": 58,
"timing_detail": {"mtf_confluence": 57, "mtf_tool_verdict": "bearish", "risk_reward_score": 58,
"relative_strength_1m": "lagging", "relative_strength_6m": "+36%",
"range_position_pct": 67, "catalyst_clustering_score": 55, "dynamic_macro_weight": 0.20,
"atr": 2.71, "rsi_daily": 37.6, "sma50": 89.21, "sma200": 71.91},
"driver_score": 78, "driver_label": "Strong Tailwind", "driver_confidence": 60,
"driver_name": "Crude oil + Iran/Hormuz premium vs long-run demand fade",
"driver_invalidation_floor": "WTI < ~US$50",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following", "economic_alignment_conviction": 72,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind", "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-13",
"amplification_applied": false,
"amplification_note": "Driver 78 (>=65) + Tailwind pressure would enable STRONG BUY, but base is HOLD at all horizons; HOLD never amplifies.",
"overall_confidence": 58,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0, "recent_downgrades_30d": 1,
"fair_value": 88, "stop_loss": 77.50, "target_price": 96,
"scenario_bull": 114, "scenario_base": 96, "scenario_bear": 68, "expected_value": 94,
"hard_gate_state": "clear", "gates_triggered": [], "gates_caution": [], "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_criteria_total": 4, "entry_criteria_met": 1,
"exit_criteria_total": 3, "exit_criteria_met": 0,
"short_term_buy_live": false,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-02", "next_update_basis": "default +14d (no impactful event); rolled off Canada Day Jul 1",
"next_earnings_date": "2026-08-11",
"analysis_status": "on-going", "analysis_status_badge": "Starting",
"finder_ticker": "SU.TO", "finder_exchange": "🇨🇦 TSX · 🇺🇸 NYSE"
}
Plain-language summary: A high-quality (74), fairly-valued (62) integrated oil major caught in a neutral-to-weak technical pullback (53), with a strong oil/Hormuz driver (78) and a supportive energy-sector macro (Trend-Following, conviction 72). All three pillars land in one Decision-Matrix cell — High + Fair + Neutral → HOLD across Short, Medium and Long. No gate or trigger fired; no amplification because a HOLD is never amplified.