DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
SoFi is a US digital-only financial-services company — a bank, a lending business and a financial 'super-app' rolled into one. It started in student-loan refinancing and now offers personal and home loans, checking and savings accounts, brokerage, credit cards and a fast-growing 'technology platform' (Galileo/Technisys) that provides the plumbing behind other fintechs' apps. Its core model is to acquire members cheaply through one app and cross-sell them multiple products, while its bank charter lets it fund loans with low-cost deposits. What sets it apart is that all-in-one, mobile-first membership model with a national bank charter — a combination most fintechs lack — driving very fast member and revenue growth. For a reader: think of it as a fast-growing digital bank + fintech platform, still in the phase of trading rapid growth for a build-out of durable profitability.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | HOLD | 45 | 50% | strong-downtrend tape — buy on confirmation |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | BUY | 62 | 55% | cheap after a −50% drawdown; raised guidance (PEG 0.72) |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | BUY | 66 | 60% | fast-growing digital bank compounding members + revenue |
Next update: 2026-08-14 — default +14d (Q2 earnings just reported 29 Jul; no dated catalyst in window)
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.
Business Quality
64
strong growth, profitability still building
conf 60%
Valuation Attractiveness
66
attractive (PEG 0.72, fwd P/E 20)
conf 65%
Entry/Exit Timing
42
weak — strong downtrend at support
conf 50%
Underlying Drivers
52
Neutral (rates + consumer credit)
conf 55%
Economic Alignment
50
Neutral
conf 55%
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅Financial Distress
Bank-chartered with deposit funding; profitable and cash-generative. No distress.
✅Earnings Event
Q2 just reported (29 Jul) — the event risk is behind it; next print ~late Oct.
✅Valuation Ceiling
Forward P/E 20 with a PEG of 0.72 for +40% growth — not expensive; well below the guardrail.
⚠️Dilution / Accounting
Fintech stock-based comp and past convertible dilution are worth watching, but Q2 earnings were GAAP-profitable with a raised revenue guide. Monitor share count.
⚠️Volatility / Beta
Beta ~2.1 and down ~50% from its high — a high-volatility name; size accordingly.
Net gate read: no BUY-blocking gate. Caution flags are dilution to monitor and high volatility — sizing considerations. No Do-Not-Buy trigger fires.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
Fast, broad growth and a widening product set — held just below 'high' only because bank-level profitability (ROE 7%) is still being built.
Lifecycle: high-growth digital bank / fintech (hybrid). Scored on the fintech lens — member and revenue growth, cross-sell, and the building bank profitability.
| Sub-signal | Read (Q2 2026, reported 29 Jul) | Score |
|---|
| Revenue growth | Adjusted net revenue US$1.2B, +40% YoY; FY guide RAISED to $4.75–4.85B | 84 |
| Member growth | 15.8M members, +35% YoY (+1.1M in the quarter) | 85 |
| Loan originations | Record US$14.8B — records across personal, student & home | 82 |
| Profitability (ROE) | ROE ~7% — GAAP-profitable but bank-level returns still building | 45 |
| Platform / diversification | Fee-based tech platform (Galileo) + lending + deposits — diversifying | 66 |
Industry benchmark — fintech Rule-of-40 / growth-profitability: +40% revenue growth with mid-teens adjusted margins clears the bar comfortably; the ROE is the developing piece. Benchmark 70.
Switching costs
60
Multi-product members (deposits + loans + invest) are stickier
Cost advantage
62
Bank charter → low-cost deposit funding vs non-bank fintechs
Network / scale
55
Scaling members + the Galileo platform; not yet a hard network
Brand / intangibles
58
Strong young-professional brand; the charter is a real barrier
Competitive Environment. SoFi competes on three fronts — incumbent banks, other neobanks/fintechs, and single-product specialists — in a crowded US market where customer acquisition is the battleground.
| Competitor | Threat type | Trajectory | Erosion vector |
|---|
| Incumbent banks (JPM, etc.) & Chime/neobanks | Deposit & member competition | Stable–gaining | SoFi keeps taking share of young digital customers; charter helps |
| Robinhood / brokerage & card fintechs | Product overlap | Stable | Cross-sell breadth is the defence vs single-product rivals |
| Credit cycle / underwriting | Loss risk, not a rival | Watch | A consumer-credit downturn is the real threat to the lending engine |
→ Net effect: switching-cost and cost-advantage moats intact and slowly building; the live risk is the credit cycle, not a competitor taking share. Competitive threat level: moderate.
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Cheap on growth-adjusted metrics after a ~50% drawdown — the market is discounting the profitability ramp, not the growth.
| Metric | Value | Read |
|---|
| Forward P/E | 20.2× | Reasonable for +40% growth |
| PEG | 0.72 | Below 1 — growth under-priced |
| Price / book | 1.94× | Full for a 7% ROE bank, fair for a growth fintech |
| Price vs 52-wk high | −50% (from $32.73) | Deeply washed out; near the $14.88 low |
| Analyst target | $19.87 mean (range $12–30) | ~+21% upside, but Hold consensus (14 Holds) |
Warranted-multiple read: haircutting the +40% growth to a disciplined ~15% secular cap warrants ~25–28× earnings; SoFi trades ~20× forward — roughly 0.77× warranted, the Attractive/Fair edge. The very wide analyst range ($12–30) reflects an unusually split view on how the profitability ramp plays out.
Embedded optionality: the fee-based tech platform (Galileo/Technisys) re-rating as it scales; operating leverage as the bank matures toward higher ROE; and any move to add products (crypto, wider lending) not in numbers. The bear case is the credit cycle — which is why a +40% grower trades at a PEG under 1.
Analyst consensus: Hold (9 Buy / 14 Hold / 4 Sell), target mean $19.87 — the split view is the story, not a clean buy.
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
As a digital bank, SoFi's driver is the rate cycle (deposit spreads vs loan demand) and consumer-credit health (its loan-book loss rates).
| Horizon | Read |
|---|
| Historical | Higher rates lifted deposit spreads but pressured the multiple; loan demand strong |
| Current | Fed higher-for-longer (no cut) — mixed: good for spreads, a headwind for the growth multiple and loan affordability |
| Forward | Consumer credit cooling but resilient; a labour break is the tail risk to the loan book |
Driver 52 — Neutral. Rates and credit pull in opposite directions right now, so the driver neither amplifies nor caps — the case rests on growth and valuation, not the macro driver.
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
The 30 Jul MacroDriver has Financials Neutral across horizons — a steeper curve helps net interest margin, offset by private-credit-cycle and consumer-credit risk. For a consumer-lending fintech that is a Neutral pressure: the higher-for-longer rate path helps deposit spreads but caps the growth multiple and adds a consumer-credit watch. No amplification either way.
Source: sector-map (Financials) · Macro report 2026-07-30
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
A strong daily downtrend, ~50% off the high, now trying to base at major support after a 'good-numbers, stock-down' print — the entry is not yet confirmed.
The tape is the weak link: SoFi fell ~6% on the 29 Jul print despite beating and raising guidance ('investors hoped for more'), and it sits in a downtrend well below its moving averages.
| Signal | Read |
|---|
| Daily trend | Strong downtrend — below SMA50 ($17.2) and SMA200 ($21.4) |
| Weekly trend | Downtrend; monthly still up (the longer structure) |
| Support | $14.88–15.65 (near the 52-wk low) — price basing on it; hourly recovering |
| RSI (daily) | 45 — neutral, room either way |
| Relative strength | Weak — a persistent laggard, −50% from the high |
Short technical-confirmation: NOT met (daily strong downtrend). So the Short is capped at HOLD — 'buy on confirmation': a reclaim of the $17 area / the 20-day, or a clear higher-low base off $15. Medium and long stay BUY on the value + growth.
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.
Upcoming events (next 30 days)
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| — | No stock-specific dated catalyst in the next 14 days (Q2 just reported) | Low | — | — | — | Next earnings ~late Oct |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|
| 2026-07-29 | SoFi Q2 2026 earnings | Rev $1.2B / EPS $0.12 | beat + raised rev guide | +40% rev, stock −6% | Strong print, weak reaction |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC | Hold, hawkish | — | no cut | Mixed for the multiple; helps spreads |
The catalyst just passed: a strong Q2 (record revenue, +35% members, record originations, raised revenue guide) that the market sold anyway — a classic good-results-weak-reaction. With the print behind it and the Fed holding, the near-term path is technical (basing at support) rather than event-driven.
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Neutral | 49 | − (hist) | S: 10.5 / R: 18.4 | — | 1.4x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Bearish | 42 | − easing | S: 14.9 / R: 25.1 | Breakdown | 1.3x |
| Daily | Strong down | Bearish | 45 | − falling | S: 15.2 / R: 18.4 | — | 0.9x |
| Hourly | Recovering | Neutral | 58 | + turning | S: 15.8 / R: 16.9 | Breakout | 0.9x |
| 15-min | Strong up | Bullish | 57 | + up | S: 16.0 / R: 16.6 | Breakout | — |
| Confluence: Mixed — downtrend basing · MTF Score 46 |
The longer structure (monthly) is still an uptrend, but weekly and daily are in a downtrend after the drawdown, and intraday is trying to base (hourly recovering, 15-min up). It reads as a possible bottoming attempt at the $14.88–15.65 support, but not a confirmed turn — the Short stays a hold until price reclaims the $17 shelf or prints a clear higher low.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.
SOFI 6-month daily — a steady downtrend from the $32+ high into $15 support, now basing after the 29 Jul earnings dip.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.
Bull $24 (25%)
Profitability inflects, the tech-platform re-rates and momentum returns as the growth compounds — the stock recovers toward the higher analyst targets. A ~+46% move.
Base $19 (55%)
Growth stays ~40%, guidance holds, and the ~50% drawdown re-rates toward the ~$19–20 consensus over 12 months as the profitability ramp shows through. A ~+16% move (the centre of gravity).
Bear $12 (20%)
A consumer-credit downturn hits the loan book, or the downtrend continues and rates bite — the stock breaks the $14.88 low toward the low analyst target. A ~−27% move.
Probability-weighted 12-month fair value ≈ $18.1 (0.25×24 + 0.55×19 + 0.20×12), ~+10% from $16.39 — a wide distribution reflecting the split analyst view on the profitability ramp and the credit cycle.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.
How to read this — the Conviction Ladder
The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Half-Size1 of 3 groups met — one path open — starter / scale-in
Fundamental — MET
Cheap on growth after the drawdown, with guidance just raised.
✅ Price $16.39 below fair value ~$18.1 (PEG 0.72)
✅ No earnings within 7 days (Q2 just reported)
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (52)
Technical — not MET
Daily strong downtrend; the reachable entry is a base off $15 or a reclaim of $17.
⛔ Daily reclaim of the $17 shelf / 20-day on volume, OR a confirmed higher-low base off $15
✅ RSI 35–65 (45) — met
⛔ MACD turning up (daily still negative)
Catalyst — not MET
The Q2 catalyst just fired negatively (stock fell despite the beat).
⛔ Post-earnings +5% with guidance raised — did NOT happen (stock −6%)
Forecast: Fundamental — MET. Technical — Low/Moderate: the daily is a strong downtrend basing at $15 support; a reclaim of $17 or a clear higher low would confirm — until then the Short is 'buy on confirmation'. Catalyst — spent: the Q2 beat/raise just came and went with a negative reaction, so the near-term is technical, not event-driven. Ladder = Half-Size (Fundamental path only).
Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position
Stop-Loss — not LIVE
⛔ Two daily closes below $14.50 (below the 52-wk low)
Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE
⛔ Revenue growth decelerates sharply AND guidance is cut
⛔ OR consumer-credit losses spike materially in the loan book
Profit-Target — not LIVE
⛔ Price into $19–20 (base/consensus) with RSI > 70
Forecast: Stop ($14.50) is ~11% below at the 52-wk low — a break there says the base failed. Profit-trim ($19–20) is the consensus zone; a re-rate needs the tape to turn, a 6–12-month path rather than weeks.
Imagine you act at the current price of $16.39 · as of 31 Jul 2026
What if you bought now?
You are risking ~11% (to the $14.50 stop / ~$12 bear) to gain ~16% to base and ~46% to bull.
What you're risking: the tape — you'd be buying a strong daily downtrend that isn't confirmed, so it can retest or break the $14.88 low; and the credit cycle is the fundamental bear. What you're gaining: a +40%-growth digital bank at a PEG of 0.72 after a 50% drawdown, with guidance just raised and ~+21% to the analyst mean. Read: for a medium/long holder this is a half-size accumulate zone; a short-term trader should wait for a $17 reclaim or a clear higher-low base to confirm the turn.
What if you sold now?
Standing aside protects ~11% of downside but gives up ~16% base-case upside on a cheap grower we rate BUY on both longer horizons.
What you're protecting: the downtrend and credit-cycle risk. What you're giving up: the re-rating from a washed-out price after a raised-guidance quarter. Read: no exit rule is live (stop clear, thesis intact) — a hold/accumulate zone, with a $17 reclaim the trigger to add.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
Position sizing not computed to a % (no risk budget supplied). The §12 ladder reads Half-Size (Fundamental met, tape unconfirmed). Volatility is high — daily ATR ~$0.94 (~6%), beta ~2.1 — so size smaller than a typical name and scale in on confirmation.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
"ticker": "SOFI",
"date": "2026-07-31",
"version": "v6",
"company": "SoFi Technologies, Inc.",
"currency": "USD",
"brand": "",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:SOFI",
"isin": "US83406F1021",
"api_ticker": "SOFI",
"analysis_status": "donatien-pick",
"finder_ticker": "SOFI",
"finder_exchange": "NASDAQ",
"price_at_rating": 16.39,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"short_hold_reason": "technical_pending",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"quality_score": 64,
"valuation_score": 66,
"timing_score": 42,
"driver_score": 52,
"lifecycle_stage": "high_growth",
"overall_confidence": 50,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 50,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
"warranted_multiple": 26,
"actual_multiple": 20.2,
"val_multiple_basis": "forward P/E",
"warranted_ratio": 0.77,
"val_band": "attractive",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 0,
"clean_pe": 20.2,
"clean_peg": 0.72,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"fair_value_est": 18.1,
"stop_loss": 14.5,
"target_price": 19.0,
"scenario_base_target": 19.0,
"scenario_bull_target": 24.0,
"scenario_bear_target": 12.0,
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"analyst_consensus_target": 19.87,
"analyst_target_high": 30.0,
"analyst_target_low": 12.0,
"analyst_bullish_pct": 33,
"analyst_coverage_count": 27,
"next_update_date": "2026-08-14",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (Q2 earnings just reported 29 Jul; no dated catalyst in window)"
}
Medium upgrades HOLD→BUY (from HOLD / HOLD / BUY-ACCUMULATE): after a ~50% drawdown and a raised-guidance Q2, the value case carries the medium horizon; the Short stays a technical-pending HOLD (strong daily downtrend). Keeps its Donatien-Pick status. The name to watch is the tape reclaiming $17.
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_yahoo_quote $16.39, mkt cap $21B, fwd P/E 20.2, PEG 0.72, beta 2.1
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis monthly up, weekly/daily downtrend, intraday recovering
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_price_target_summary Hold (9/14/4), target $19.87
✓
Web — Q2 2026 earnings (29 Jul) rev $1.2B +40%, EPS $0.12 beat, members 15.8M +35%, originations $14.8B, guide raised, stock −6%
✓
Macro report (Economic Alignment) 30 Jul MacroDriver — Financials Neutral
Impact on scores: Full data coverage. The Q2 print is fully incorporated (reported 29 Jul). Earnings-event gate now clear (event passed). Timing confidence reflects the downtrend.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.