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NYSE:SE Sea Limited

ISIN: US81141R1005
Consumer DiscretionarySE-Asia Internet (EM)E-commerce · Fintech · GamingQ2 earnings in 4 days (11 Aug)
NYSE (ADR) · HQ Singapore · Consumer Discretionary / Broadline Retail Analysis Status: On-Going
All figures in US dollars (USD). Sea reports in USD.
$111.00
+11.6% vs last report
7 Aug 2026 · Signal v6

Changes Since Last Report vs. 23 Jul 2026 ($99.50)

SE has rallied +11.6% ($99.50 → $111.00), reclaiming its 200-DMA in a daily uptrend. The signal is unchanged at HOLD / HOLD / HOLD — but the key development is that Q2 earnings are now confirmed for 11 Aug (4 days out), firing the Earnings-Event gate and turning the near-term picture into "wait for the print."

DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Sea Limited

Sea Limited is a Singapore-headquartered internet group that operates across Southeast Asia, Latin America (chiefly Brazil) and Taiwan through three connected businesses. Shopee is its e-commerce marketplace and the largest by gross merchandise value in Southeast Asia, monetising through commissions, advertising and logistics; Garena is its digital-entertainment arm, best known for the mobile battle-royale game Free Fire; and SeaMoney is its digital-financial-services arm (ShopeePay, the SPayLater buy-now-pay-later product, and SeaBank digital banking), which also processes payments for Shopee. What makes the group distinctive is the flywheel between the three: Shopee generates the transactions and users that feed SeaMoney's lending and payments, while Garena's cash historically funded the build-out. For a reader, think of Sea as the "Amazon-plus-fintech-plus-gaming" of emerging Asia — a high-growth platform now turning consistently profitable, but still exposed to intense competition and emerging-market currency swings.

HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo)HOLD5040%Neutral tape into a 4-day earnings binary; Expensive valuation (Gate 3); no clean entry (Wait)
Medium-term (6–12 mo)HOLD5545%High quality, but Expensive after a +12% run (Gate 3 HOLD-cap); wait for the print + a better price
Long-term (3–5 yr)HOLD6052%Great business at an expensive price — accumulate on weakness, not at resistance
Next update: 2026-08-12 — earnings 2026-08-11 +1 trading day (re-rate on the Q2 print)
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status3Pillar Detail: Business Quality4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing8Economic Event Risk9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis10Price Chart (6-Month Daily)11Scenario Summary12Entry / Exit Rules13Position Sizing Context14Calibration Snapshot15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.

Business Quality

76
strong
conf 72%

Valuation Attractiveness

38
expensive
conf 70%

Entry/Exit Timing

52
neutral
conf 40% (earnings-capped)

Underlying Drivers

66
tailwind
conf 62%

Economic Alignment

48
Contrarian
conf 55%
2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅
Financial Distress
Net cash: ~$12.8bn cash ($20.87/sh), debt/equity 0.28, interest coverage 79x, current ratio 1.58. No distress.
⚠️
Earnings Event Risk
TRIGGERED — Q2 FY26 reports 11 Aug 2026 (4 days). SE routinely gaps ±10-16% on prints (e.g. -16% on 2 Mar, +13% on 11 May). Timing confidence capped at 40%; not a Buy-blocker but a strong reason to wait for the print.
❌
Valuation Ceiling (Gate 3)
TRIGGERED — EXPENSIVE band on BOTH arms. SE is GICS Consumer Discretionary (Broadline Retail), whose guardrail rich line is 24x P/E. (a) Floor arm: actual ~34x ≥ the 24x line → Expensive on the guardrail floor alone. (b) Ratio arm: raw warranted ~28x is capped at the 24x guardrail, so ratio = 34 / 24 ≈ 1.42 ≥ the 1.40x Expensive line. Gate 3 is a hard HOLD-cap; the signal is HOLD (belt-and-suspenders on top of the matrix, which also reads HOLD). NO Do-Not-Buy: DNB arm (a) needs ≥1.5x the line (36x) and actual 34 < 36; DNB arm (b) needs a live structural/systemic de-rating catalyst and the competitive front is elevated/stable, not triggered.
✅
Accounting / Dilution
Earnings quality clean — reported net income is NOT inflated by mark-to-market gains (non-operating income ex-interest is a small NET DRAG; interest income is recurring cash/fintech income). Diluted share count creep ~4%/yr, under the 5% flag.
✅
Regulatory / Binary
No pending M&A, antitrust ruling or regulatory decision that is binary. (The earnings binary is captured under Gate 2.)
✅
Severe Driver Collapse
Driver score 66 (Tailwind) — well above the collapse floor. SE-Asia digital-adoption tailwind intact.
Net gate read: the Valuation-Ceiling gate (Gate 3) is TRIGGERED — SE is Expensive on the Consumer-Discretionary 24x guardrail (both arms) — so the signal is hard-capped at HOLD. The matrix would give HOLD on the scores alone too, so Gate 3 is belt-and-suspenders, not the swing vote. No hard Do-Not-Buy fires (actual 34x is below the 1.5x-line / 36x deep-expensive threshold and there is no live structural/systemic de-rating catalyst). The Earnings-Event Risk gate is also live (print in 4 days), reinforcing "wait for the print."
3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
High-quality, three-engine EM platform now consistently profitable — held back only by an intensifying competitive front.
76
conf 72%

Lifecycle / sector: High-growth (revenue +47% YoY) internet platform, GICS Consumer Discretionary (Broadline Retail), scored on a hybrid growth + fintech metric set. Now four consecutive profitable quarters, so the lens is shifting from pure growth toward operating leverage and cash generation.

Sub-signalValueReadScore
Revenue trajectoryQ1'26 $7.10bn, +47% YoY (Q4 +38%, accelerating)Top-decile for a $25bn-revenue platform; Shopee GMV + SeaMoney loan book both compounding90
Profitability (operating)Op margin 8.2% TTM; Q1 op income +24% YoY on +47% revenueOperating leverage real — costs growing slower than revenue72
Cash generationTTM OCF ~$5.3bn; FCF/sh $5.49; FCF margin ~13%Strongly cash-generative — rare for a name still called "high-growth"78
Balance sheetCash ~$12.8bn ($20.87/sh), D/E 0.28, int cover 79x, current 1.58Fortress — net cash funds SeaMoney lending and LatAm build-out85
ROE / returnsROE ~12% (TTM dil EPS $2.58 ÷ BVPS $21.0); FMP ROE & ROA sub-scores 4/5Healthy and rising as the three segments all turn profitable66
Industry benchmark — Rule of 40 (hybrid): revenue growth +47% + FCF margin ~13% = ~60 → top-tier (≥60 exceptional). The growth-vs-profitability trade-off is in rare balance. Benchmark score 85.

Network effects

Two-sided Shopee marketplace + payments loop → 82

Switching costs

Trimmed — consumers multi-home across Shopee / TikTok Shop / Lazada; SeaMoney/BNPL raises stickiness only modestly → 52

Cost advantage

Regional logistics scale (SPX Express) is real but replicable and under price attack → 58

Pricing power

Take-rate rising but capped by competition; must fund incentives → 55

Intangibles

Shopee brand + Free Fire IP + SeaBank licences → 66

Moat average ≈ 63 — a genuine platform moat, deliberately marked down on Switching Costs and Cost Advantage by the live competitive front below.

Competitive Environment — the moat above is derived from, not asserted over, this dynamic read.
RivalThreat typeShare trajectory (SE vs rival)Moat-erosion vector
TikTok ShopDirect e-commerce (social commerce)SE broadly holding #1 GMV in SE-Asia but growth split; TikTok Shop gaining fastestTake-rate / incentive competition; younger-user attention shift
Temu (PDD)Low-cost cross-border entrantSE not materially threatened in SE-Asia — Temu is banned/suspended in key markets (Indonesia, Vietnam) and only peripherally present; more relevant on the LatAm legLimited SE-Asia impact; price/subsidy pressure confined to low-ASP cross-border niches
Lazada (Alibaba)Direct regional incumbentSE gaining share vs a retrenching LazadaMuted — Lazada scaling back spend
MercadoLibreLatAm (Brazil) incumbentSE challenger/losing in Brazil vs a strengthening MELI ecosystemEcosystem depth (logistics + fintech) in the LatAm growth leg

→ Net effect on moat: Switching Costs trimmed to 52 and Cost Advantage to 58; the threat is elevated and share trajectory stable (defending #1 in SE-Asia, challenger in LatAm). This propagates to the §11 Bear (take-rate / margin compression) and the §12 thesis-invalidation.

Capital allocation: disciplined — Garena cash historically funded Shopee/SeaMoney; no dividend, buybacks modest; SBC contained relative to peers. Founder-led (CEO Forrest Li / Xiaodong Li) with meaningful insider alignment.

4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Expensive — a good business at a rich price; ~34x P/E clears the Consumer-Discretionary 24x guardrail on both arms, and the +12% two-week run removed what cushion remained just before the print.
38
conf 70%

SE is profitable and growing, so P/E is now meaningful — but it embeds an aggressive multi-year earnings ramp that the market is paying for in advance.

MultipleValueRead
Trailing P/E~43x (TTM dil EPS ~$2.58)Genuinely rich on delivered earnings
Forward P/E (FY26)~30x (FY26 EPS ~$3.5)Rich for a Broadline-Retail platform
Forward P/E (NTM / FY27-lean)~23x (FY27 cons EPS $4.87 → 111/4.87)Only "reasonable" if the EPS-doubling ramp lands
PEG (forward)~1.06Fair for a 30%+ grower
EV/EBITDA / P/S23.8x / 2.6xP/S cheap for +47% growth; EBITDA multiple full
FCF yield~5.0% (P/FCF 19.8x)Attractive anchor — the cash is real
Warranted-multiple anchor. r = 4.63% (US 10-Y, 5 Aug) + 4.5% ERP + 0.0% risk add-on (Quality ≥65) ≈ 9.15%. g_near = 15% (secular-growth cap; SE is a proven >20% grower, held at the cap for discipline, not fed the ~35% consensus), g_term = 3%. Two-stage warranted P/E raw ≈ 28x, but SE is GICS Consumer Discretionary (Broadline Retail), whose per-sector guardrail rich line is 24x — so the warranted multiple is capped at 24x. Disciplined actual (trailing-weighted to haircut the un-delivered FY27 ramp) ≈ 34x → EXPENSIVE on both arms: (a) actual 34x ≥ the 24x guardrail line (Expensive on the floor alone, no growth story overrides it), and (b) ratio = 34 ÷ 24 ≈ 1.42 ≥ the 1.40x Expensive line. This fires the Valuation-Ceiling gate (Gate 3) — a hard HOLD-cap. Implied-growth read: at $111 the market is pricing ~18-20% durable growth; our disciplined estimate is ~15% — the price embeds more growth than the fundamentals conservatively support.
Embedded optionality / free upside — what you own that the multiple barely pays for:
• SeaMoney / SeaBank digital-banking scale-up (loan book + deposit funding) — a bank being valued inside a retail multiple.
• Shopee ad-tech — advertising is the highest-margin GMV monetisation lever and still early.
• Garena new-game pipeline beyond Free Fire — a call option the market prices at ~zero after years of decline.
• LatAm (Brazil) path-to-profit — currently a cost drag; profitability there is unpriced upside.
Net: the core Shopee+Garena earnings justify most of the ~$111; SeaMoney scale, ad-tech and Garena optionality are the reasons to keep watching. This is a tilt (+3-5), not a re-rating — it does not make an Expensive core cheap.

Analyst targets: consensus $133.60 (+20.4%), median $125 (+12.6%), high $150, low $121 — a real, dispersed panel (not degenerate), coverage 44. Grades: 31 Buy / 11 Hold / 2 Sell → Buy (70% bullish). FMP rating B+ (3/5): ROE/ROA/D-E sub-scores 4, but P/E and P/B sub-scores 2 — independently flagging the valuation as the weak leg, consistent with the Expensive read.

5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Primary Driver
SE-Asia / EM digital-adoption + EM risk-appetite (FX)
66
Tailwind (66)

SE's fortunes sit above its own execution on two forces: the structural digitalisation of Southeast-Asian & LatAm commerce/finance (a multi-year secular tailwind), and near-term EM risk-appetite / currency (rupiah, real, baht vs a firm USD) which swings the ADR regardless of operations.

HorizonReadDetail (source / date)
Historical (12-24m)StrongShopee GMV compounding, SeaMoney loan book scaling, Free Fire re-accelerated off its trough — revenue +38-47% YoY through Q1'26 (income statements, filed May 2026)
CurrentMixed — business tailwind vs macro headwindOperating momentum strong, but macro report (30 Jul) has EM Equities U/SU and Consumer-Disc (XLY) U/SU/U; USD firm, stagflation-lite risk-off; 10-Y 4.63%
Forward (6-12m)Constructive but contestedContinued GMV/fintech growth vs Temu/TikTok-Shop competition + SeaMoney credit-cycle risk; EM-FX the swing factor

Not a commodity-leveraged name, so no price-trend overlay applies. Amplification: driver 66 ≥ 65 → Tailwind, technically amplification-eligible — but the base signal is HOLD, and HOLD is never amplified, so the driver leaves the signal unchanged. It does not alter the five fundamental pillar scores.

6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Stance · Pressure
Contrarian · Headwind
48
conviction

SE is not a macro-watchlist name, so it maps by GICS sector: Consumer Discretionary (XLY) reads U/SU/U and EM Equities U/SU/N across Short/Medium/Long — a clear macro HEADWIND under the stagflation-lite, firm-USD, risk-off regime. Going long here is therefore Contrarian. Conviction is only moderate (48): the fade is justified by strong company operating momentum and a Tailwind driver, but NOT by valuation (Expensive, not washed out) or timing (already bounced ~15%, not deeply oversold). Pressure = Headwind, so no STRONG-BUY amplification is available; with a HOLD base it leaves the signal unchanged.

Source: sector-map (XLY / EM Equities — SE not on the macro watchlist) · Macro report 2026-07-30

7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Improved to Neutral — reclaimed the 200-DMA in a daily uptrend, but extended into resistance 4 days before a binary print.
52
conf 40% (Earnings-Event gate)

The tape is materially better than the last report (which caught SE below a falling 200-DMA on EM risk-off): SE bounced ~15% off the $99.50 low (22 Jul) to $114.91 (4 Aug) and now trades $111, back above both the 50-DMA ($98.6) and 200-DMA ($109.5). But the bounce is now at the $115 resistance shelf, and the print is in 4 days — a poor spot to open a fresh short-term position.

ComponentReadScore
MTF confluenceMonthly up · Weekly down (below 120.6 wk-50) · Daily up · Hourly/15m strong-up; net improving60
Risk-reward (fresh entry)At $115 resistance after +15%, into a ±15% earnings binary — unfavourable for a new entry40
Relative strength+28% vs 3m ago, +5% vs 1m — strong near-term leader, but part bounce from oversold; 52-wk range position only 28% (range $77-$199)60
Macro overlayEM/discretionary headwind (XLY U/SU); 10-Y 4.63%; risk-off regime42
SentimentGrades all-maintain last 90d (JPM/Barclays OW, TD Cowen Hold 4 Aug); no downgrades; consensus Buy58
CatalystQ2 earnings 11 Aug — one dominant, imminent, binary catalyst → reduce size / wait40

Daily RSI 59, MACD histogram just positive; ATR ~$4.25 (~3.8%/day), beta 1.55. Gate 2 caps timing confidence at 40%. Net: Neutral (52) — better, but not a chase-into-the-print signal.

8

Economic Event Risk

High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

DateEventImpactForecastPreviousRelevant?Why
2026-08-07Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment (Jul)High80k / 4.2%57k / 4.2%IndirectSets EM risk-appetite & USD — SE is an ADR, so the FX/risk tape matters
2026-08-11SEA LIMITED Q2 FY26 EARNINGSHighEPS $0.83 · Rev $7.12bn—YES (company)The dominant catalyst — binary, ±10-16% typical move; Gate 2 live
2026-08-12OPEC Monthly ReportMedium——LowOil/inflation path feeds the macro regime, not SE directly

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

DateEventActualForecastSurpriseImpact
2026-08-06Initial Jobless Claims199k202k-1.5% (below)Mildly firm labour → risk-on lean
2026-08-06Nonfarm Productivity Q21.4%0.6%+133% (above)Disinflationary surprise → modest risk-on
2026-08-06Challenger Job Cuts (Jul)33.4k59k-43% (below)Fewer layoffs → supports consumer/EM sentiment

Only one event truly matters for SE in the window: Q2 earnings on 11 Aug (4 days). As a Consumer-Discretionary EM ADR, SE has only medium macro sensitivity, but the 7 Aug jobs print and the firm-USD/risk-off regime set the EM tape it trades on. The clear message: the print, not the macro calendar, is the near-term driver — wait for it.

9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
TimeframeTrendDirectionRSIMACDKey S/RBreakoutVol
MonthlyUptrend ↑Bullish48Neg, hist -S: $55 · R: $199 / $89Res-breakout0.2x
WeeklyDowntrend ↓Neutral56Hist turning +S: $77-$98 · R: $116 / $148—0.9x
DailyUptrend ↑Bullish59Pos, hist +S: $97.6 / $87 · R: $115.7Res-breakout0.9x
HourlyStrong Up ↑Bullish53FlatS: $110 · R: $115Res-breakout—
15-minStrong Up ↑Bullish61Pos, hist +S: $110.6 · R: $114.1Res-breakout—
Confluence: Improving / Mostly Bullish (weekly the lone laggard) · MTF Score 60

Four of five timeframes are up and the tool flags "strongly bullish"; the honest caveat is the weekly still-downtrend (price below the $120.6 weekly-50) and the fact that the daily uptrend is running straight into the $115.7 resistance shelf. This is a recovered-but-extended tape, not a fresh breakout with room. Key levels: $115.7 resistance (a clean close above re-opens $148); $97.6 then $87 support on the downside — with the 11 Aug print the arbiter of which way it resolves.

10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.

SE daily, Feb-Aug 2026. The 2 Mar gap to ~$78 (post-print), the base through spring, and the sharp late-July/August recovery back above the 200-DMA into the $115.7 resistance shelf. The 11 Aug print decides whether $116 breaks toward $148 or the name retraces to $97/$87.

11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.

Bull $162 (22%)

Q2 beats on GMV + take-rate, SeaMoney credit costs contained, Garena stable, and management lifts FY guidance; EM risk-on returns and the multiple holds. A close above $115.7 re-opens $148 and beyond. ~+46%.

Base $125 (50%)

The digital-adoption flywheel keeps compounding revenue ~30-40% with modest operating-leverage margin gains; competition caps take-rate upside; multiple drifts sideways-to-slightly-down off Full. Lands near the analyst median $125 over 12 months. ~+13%. (Base = the story keeps working, not a crash and not a melt-up.)

Bear $84 (28%)

COMPETITIVE + MACRO trigger: TikTok Shop (and cross-border discounters) force higher incentives → Shopee take-rate & margins compress, SeaMoney credit losses tick up in an EM downturn, and/or the 11 Aug print disappoints on profitability; EM-FX/risk-off compounds. The Expensive multiple de-rates back toward the $97/$87 support and weekly $77-81 floor. ~-24%. Elevated (28%) because the binary print is 4 days away and the competitive front is live.

Probability-weighted 12-month fair value ≈ 0.22·162 + 0.50·125 + 0.28·84 ≈ $121 — roughly +9% from $111, i.e. modest positive expectancy but with a wide, event-driven distribution. That thin edge, against a ±15% binary in 4 days, is the arithmetic behind HOLD.

12

Entry / Exit Rules

Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open

Fundamental — not MET

Cheap-enough test fails on the earnings blackout and an Expensive valuation.
✅ Price $111 < fair value ~$121 (only a ~9% margin — thin)
⛔ No earnings within 7 calendar days
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (66)

Technical — not MET

Reclaimed the 200-DMA, but now at the $115.7 resistance — not at support, and no volume breakout.
⛔ Daily close > 50-DMA ($98.6) on >1.5x volume (vol only 0.9x)
⛔ OR a fresh tested bounce off $97/$87 support (price is 12% above the bounce low, at resistance)
✅ RSI 35-65 (59)
✅ MACD histogram positive ≥2 days

Catalyst — not MET

The catalyst (Q2 print) has not happened yet.
· Post-earnings move > +5% with guidance raised/maintained on >2x volume

Forecast: TECHNICAL — a clean close above $115.7 on >1.5x volume: catalyst-dependent, most likely resolved ON or just after the 11 Aug print (confidence Moderate; the print is the fork). CATALYST — the post-earnings +5%/guidance path resolves 11 Aug (High that it resolves, Unknown direction — this is the event to wait for). FUNDAMENTAL — a cleaner entry (price into $97/$87 support with the earnings blackout cleared) becomes available only on a pullback OR a post-print dip: Moderate over the next 2-4 weeks. Net: no group is met today; the print is the gate.

Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

⛔ Two daily closes below $83 (under the $87 swing / toward weekly $77-81 floor)

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

⛔ Shopee take-rate/GMV growth stalls or margins compress as TikTok Shop/Temu take share (competitive invalidation)
⛔ OR SeaMoney credit losses spike / FY guidance cut
⛔ OR revenue growth decelerates below the EM-platform peer median

Profit-Target — not LIVE

⛔ Price into $125 (base) / toward $150 with RSI > 70 and no quality re-rating

Forecast: Stop ($83) unlikely absent a bad print — price sits ~25% above it; the single realistic near-term path to it is a disappointing 11 Aug report + EM risk-off. Profit-trim ($125) is ~13% away and could trigger on a strong print. No exit rule is live today.

Imagine you act at the current price of $111.00 · as of 7 Aug 2026

What if you bought now?

You're risking ~24% (to the $84 bear / a bad print) to gain ~13% base / ~46% bull — and you'd be buying at resistance, into a binary, 4 days early.

What you're risking: the drop to the $83 hard stop (~-25%) and the 28%-weighted bear to $84; a ±10-16% overnight gap on 11 Aug that you cannot manage; buying at the $115.7 resistance after a +15% bounce (no entry group met — Wait). What you're gaining: the base path to ~$125 (+13%) and bull ~$162 (+46%); a ~5% FCF yield and the SeaMoney/ad-tech/Garena optionality you own for little; consensus still +20% to $133.60. Read: the ~+9% probability-weighted edge does not compensate for a ±15% binary you could simply wait 4 days to see — waiting for the print (or a pullback to $97/$87) materially improves the deal.

What if you sold now?

You're giving up ~+13% base upside (and ~+46% bull) to protect against a ~-24% competitive/print downside.

What you're giving up: the base move to $125 and the FCF/optionality on a high-quality compounder still rated Buy by the Street; you'd be selling roughly at/near fair value ($121), not above it. What you're protecting: capital against a disappointing print + EM risk-off de-rate to $84. Is a rule triggered? No — no stop, profit-target or thesis-invalidation is live. Read: there is no mechanical reason to sell; this is a hold / accumulate-on-weakness zone, not an exit.

13

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.

Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified for this watchlist refresh. Context that would shape it if you asked: §12 conviction ladder reads Wait (0/3), so the sizing guidance is "no fresh position here — watch the levels ($115.7 reclaim or $97/$87 pullback) and the 11 Aug print," not a percentage. Volatility to size around if held: ATR ~3.8%/day, beta ~1.55 (a 5% position carries ~7.5% of market risk), 52-wk drawdown from $199 to $77.

14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
  "ticker": "SE",
  "date": "2026-08-07",
  "version": "v6",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "exchange_ticker": "NYSE:SE",
  "isin": "US81141R1005",
  "api_ticker": "SE",
  "company": "Sea Limited",
  "brand": "Sea",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Discretionary",
  "sub_industry": "SE-Asia Internet (EM)",
  "lifecycle_stage": "high-growth",
  "price_at_rating": 111.0,
  "signal_short": "HOLD",
  "signal_medium": "HOLD",
  "signal_long": "HOLD",
  "primary_signal": "HOLD",
  "quality_score": 76,
  "valuation_score": 38,
  "timing_score": 52,
  "driver_score": 66,
  "overall_confidence": 40,
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Contrarian",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 48,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Headwind",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
  "val_multiple_basis": "forward P/E (blended)",
  "warranted_multiple": 24,
  "actual_multiple": 34,
  "warranted_ratio": 1.42,
  "risk_free_10y": 4.63,
  "discount_rate_r": 9.15,
  "g_near": 15,
  "g_term": 3,
  "val_band": "expensive",
  "trailing_pe": 43,
  "forward_pe": 30,
  "fcf_yield": 5.0,
  "peg_fwd": 1.06,
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": 0,
  "clean_pe": 43,
  "clean_peg": 1.06,
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
  "competitive_threat_level": "elevated",
  "driver_commodity_trend": null,
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "gates_triggered": [
    "Valuation-Ceiling (Gate 3 \u2014 Expensive band, actual 34x >= Consumer-Disc 24x guardrail and ratio 1.42 >= 1.40; hard HOLD-cap, no DNB)"
  ],
  "gates_caution": [
    "Earnings-Event Risk (Q2 on 11 Aug \u2014 caps timing confidence)",
    "EM / FX",
    "Structural/Competition (TikTok Shop; Temu limited in SE-Asia)"
  ],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "entry_groups_met": 0,
  "entry_conviction": "Wait",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "short_entry_confirmed": false,
  "short_hold_reason": "expensive",
  "short_cap_reason": "Short HOLD \u2014 Neutral tape (reclaimed 200-DMA but extended into $115.7 resistance after a +15% bounce) 4 days before a binary Q2 print; Expensive valuation (Gate 3 HOLD-cap); no entry group met (Wait). Watch a clean >$115.7 reclaim on volume, a pullback to $97/$87, or the 11 Aug print.",
  "fair_value_est": 121.0,
  "stop_loss": 83.0,
  "target_price": 125.0,
  "scenario_base_target": 125,
  "scenario_bull_target": 162,
  "scenario_bear_target": 84,
  "analyst_consensus_target": 133.6,
  "analyst_target_high": 150,
  "analyst_target_low": 121,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 20.4,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 70,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 44,
  "fmp_rating": "B+",
  "fmp_overall_score": 3,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
  "recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
  "next_update_date": "2026-08-12",
  "next_update_basis": "earnings 2026-08-11 +1 trading day",
  "next_check_date": "2026-08-12",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "finder_ticker": "SE",
  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE"
}

SE holds at HOLD/HOLD/HOLD after a +11.6% two-week bounce. The material change since 23 Jul is the confirmed Q2 print on 11 Aug (Gate 2 now live) and a firmer tape (200-DMA reclaimed) — offset by an EXPENSIVE valuation (Gate 3 now TRIGGERED on the Consumer-Discretionary 24x guardrail, both arms; a hard HOLD-cap) and an EM/discretionary macro headwind. No signal flip, no Do-Not-Buy. Re-rate on the print.

15

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_stock_snapshot / get_company_profile price $111 (last close 6 Aug), mktcap $66.6bn, beta 1.552, ISIN US81141R1005, range $77.05-$199.3
✓
get_income_statement (6q) Q1'26 rev $7.10bn (+47% YoY), op inc $565m (+24%), net inc $428m; earnings-quality decomposed (clean)
✓
get_financial_ratios trailing P/E 41-43, P/FCF 19.8, FCF/sh $5.49, D/E 0.28, int cover 79x, ROE ~12%
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis 5 TFs; monthly/daily/hourly up, weekly down; confluence strongly-bullish; RSI daily 59
✓
get_price_target_consensus / _summary consensus $133.60, median $125, high $150, low $121 (dispersed, non-degenerate) — no Yahoo fallback needed
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades 31 Buy / 11 Hold / 2 Sell (Buy, 70% bullish); grades all-maintain last 90d; TD Cowen Hold 4 Aug
✓
get_ratings_snapshot FMP B+ (3/5); ROE/ROA/D-E sub 4, P/E & P/B sub 2 (valuation the weak leg)
✓
get_earnings_calendar Q2 FY26 on 11 Aug 2026 — EPS est $0.825, rev est $7.12bn (drives Gate 2 + next-update)
✓
get_analyst_estimates FY27 EPS $4.87, FY28 $6.18, FY30 $9.27 (aggressive ramp — haircut in the anchor)
✓
get_economic_series (DGS10) / get_economic_calendar 10-Y 4.63% (5 Aug); jobs print 7 Aug; macro tape for the EM ADR
✓
MacroDriver-state (30 Jul) XLY U/SU/U, EM Equities U/SU/N → Economic Alignment Headwind/Contrarian
✓
get_stock_news Q2 preview coverage (strong rev, profitability watch); NOTE: the 24/7 'insider selling' article is about GRAB, not SE
Impact on scores: Data coverage full — no fallbacks required. The dominant confidence limiter is Gate 2 (earnings in 4 days), which caps Timing confidence at 40% and therefore overall confidence at ~40%. Forward valuation carries model risk because analyst FY27+ EPS estimates embed an aggressive earnings ramp — the warranted-multiple anchor deliberately haircuts it.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.