NYSE:SE Signal v6 — Sea Limited

Horizon	Signal	Composite Score	Confidence	Key Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo)	HOLD	44	52%	Choppy, below the 200-DMA, -5% today on EM risk-off — no confirmed entry
Medium-term (6–12 mo)	HOLD	50	55%	Great franchise + earnings inflection, but a rich trailing multiple caps it — watch for a better entry
Long-term (3–5 yr)	HOLD	56	58%	SE-Asia digital leader; wonderful growth, but wait for the multiple to be justified by delivered earnings

Lifecycle / sector: High-growth SE-Asia internet platform (EM Equities), inflecting from losses to profit. Scored on platform economics — GMV/revenue growth, segment profitability, FCF, competitive position — with an EM overlay.

Sub-signal	Value	Benchmark	Score	Read
Revenue growth	Strong (~20%+)	—	82	Shopee GMV + SeaMoney lending driving
Profitability inflection	Now profitable + FCF+	—	80	Turned the corner from cash burn
Net margin (TTM)	~6%	Early — ramping	62	Thin but rising fast off a low base
Segment leadership	#1 in SE-Asia e-commerce	—	80	Shopee leads; Garena + SeaMoney add engines
Balance sheet	Net cash	—	82	~$21/sh cash; well-funded

Industry benchmark — growth + profitability inflection: re-accelerating growth WITH a fresh swing to GAAP profit and positive FCF is the ideal SaaS/platform combination. Rating: STRONG (trajectory). Benchmark score 78/100. The quality question is durability of the profit ramp against fierce e-commerce competition.

Moat average ≈ 65. The edge is regional network effects + a 3-engine ecosystem; the vulnerabilities are low consumer switching costs, aggressive competition, and Garena's hit-dependence.

Competitive Environment. Intense in e-commerce; share trajectory defending well but contested.

Rival	Threat	Share trajectory	Erosion vector
Temu (PDD), TikTok Shop	Aggressive low-price + social commerce in SE Asia	Shopee defending #1	Subsidy/price wars, live-commerce shift
Lazada (Alibaba), Tokopedia/GoTo	Regional e-commerce	Shopee ahead	Market-by-market competition
Grab, local fintechs (SeaMoney)	Digital-payments/lending competition	SeaMoney growing	Fintech land-grab

→ Net effect: Network Effects 78, Cost Advantage 70 — Shopee is defending leadership, but Temu/TikTok Shop keep the pressure (and marketing spend) up. Threat level: elevated.

ROIC / capital allocation: improving as profitability scales; no dividend (reinvesting for growth). The capital story is the profit inflection converting to FCF — now happening.

Anchor (forward P/E for a re-accelerating platform): the trailing P/E (~37x) overstates richness because earnings are inflecting off a low base; the forward P/E is ~27x with a PEG ~0.95. Against a warranted ~30x for a high-growth EM platform, the ratio is ~1.15x = Full band — rich but not egregious, and improved by the ~5% pullback. On cash, P/FCF ~17.8x (~5.6% FCF yield) is fair for the growth.

Metric	SE	Warranted / read
Forward P/E (anchor)	~27x	~30x warranted → Full (~1.15x)
Trailing P/E	~37x	Rich (low-base earnings)
PEG (fwd)	~0.95	Fair for the growth
P/FCF (FCF yield)	~17.8x (~5.6%)	Fair
EV/Sales	~2.4x	Reasonable for a leader

Implied-growth read: at ~27x forward the market implies strong sustained growth + margin expansion — which SE is delivering, but the multiple leaves little margin of safety if the profit ramp stalls or competition re-intensifies the subsidy war. Full, not cheap; the case is quality + growth, not value.

Embedded Optionality / Free Upside: (1) SeaMoney lending scaling (high-margin, under-monetised); (2) Shopee Brazil + new-market expansion; (3) operating leverage as the profit ramp compounds. The market pays for today's blended earnings; the fintech + geographic optionality is partly free. Tilt: +4, offset by the rich trailing multiple.

Analyst cross-check: consensus target $133.6, median $125, high $150, low $121 — even the Street's low is ~22% above spot; ~34% upside to consensus. Grades: Buy consensus (0 strong-buy / 32 buy / 10 hold / 2 sell = 73% bullish) — the Street likes the trajectory and looks through the trailing multiple.

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).

Primary Driver

SE-Asia digital economy growth (e-commerce + fintech + gaming)

Tailwind (but a HOLD never amplifies)

Sea's driver is the secular growth of SE Asia's digital economy — rising e-commerce penetration, a fast-growing digital-payments/lending market, and gaming — plus Shopee's expansion into Brazil. The regional tailwind is strong and Sea leads across all three verticals; the offsets are competition (which forces marketing spend) and Garena's hit-driven volatility.

Horizon	Driver read	Score
Historical (12–24m)	Shopee re-accelerated, SeaMoney scaled, Garena stabilised — growth returned	70
Current	Strong regional digital growth vs competitive intensity — a solid tailwind	68
Forward (6–12m)	SE-Asia + Brazil runway; risk = a re-escalated subsidy war (Temu/TikTok Shop)	66

Amplification: the driver is a Tailwind (68, ≥65), but the base signal is HOLD (Full valuation + weak tape), and a HOLD never amplifies. The tailwind is why the medium/long signals are a HOLD-leaning-BUY rather than a sell — but the price already reflects much of the growth.

Thesis-invalidation floor: a re-escalated e-commerce subsidy war that reverses Shopee's profitability, a Garena hit-cycle rollover, or a broad EM/FX shock would break the profit-ramp thesis the valuation depends on.

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.

Stance · Pressure

Neutral · Neutral

conviction

The macro report's US-sector map doesn't map to a SE-Asia internet name; Sea's economy is SE Asia's digital growth + EM risk appetite. Net pressure = Neutral (the regional-growth tailwind is captured in the Driver; global risk-off is a swing factor, as today's −5% shows). No amplification. Stance Neutral.

Source: n/a — SE-Asia EM (US sector map doesn't apply) · Macro report 2026-07-20

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.

Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score

Choppy and below the 200-DMA — monthly uptrend but weekly downtrend, range-trading $80-115; -5% today on EM risk-off.

conf 55%

Risk-reward: Sea is volatile and range-bound — the monthly is an uptrend but the weekly is a downtrend, and it trades below the 200-DMA (~$114) in an $80-115 band. It bounced to $105 then fell −5% today ($99.50) on a broad EM/tech risk-off move (no company-specific news). Intraday is oversold (hourly RSI ~30). Support $95 then $81-84; resistance $100 then $115. No confirmed trend — a name that whips around.

Relative strength: high-beta EM name; moves with regional risk appetite. 52-week range roughly $78-127 — mid-range after today's drop.

Position-risk: a rich-multiple, high-beta EM name in a choppy range, below the 200-DMA, is a poor spot for a confident entry — hence the HOLD across horizons (the valuation caps it and the tape doesn't confirm). A pullback into $84-90 or a reclaim of $115 with the profit ramp intact would improve the setup. Sentiment: Buy-consensus, ~34% upside to targets — the Street is more constructive than the tape.

Economic Event Risk

High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

Date	Event	Impact	Forecast	Previous	Relevant?	Why
~2026-08-12	Sea Q2 2026 results	High	—	—	⚠️ Yes	Shopee GMV/profitability + SeaMoney + Garena — the key catalyst
ongoing	EM / global risk appetite	High	—	—	⚠️ Yes	High-beta EM name; today's -5% was a risk-off move
ongoing	SE-Asia e-commerce competition	High	—	—	⚠️ Yes	Temu/TikTok Shop subsidy intensity drives Shopee margins

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

Date	Event	Actual	Forecast	Surprise	Impact
2026-07-23	Sea share price	-5.1%	—	EM risk-off	No company news — a broad EM/tech pullback
2026-07-17	US Consumer Sentiment	54.4	51.0	above	Marginal — Sea's economy is SE Asia's

Sea trades on SE-Asia digital growth + EM risk appetite + competition, not US macro. The binding event is the ~mid-August Q2 print (Shopee profitability + SeaMoney). Today's -5% was risk-off, not fundamental. High EM/beta sensitivity.

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.

Timeframe	Trend	Direction	RSI	MACD	Key S/R	Breakout	Vol
Monthly	Uptrend ↑	Neutral	48.7	− falling	S: 55 R: 199	Res breakout	0.84x
Weekly	Downtrend ↓	Neutral	48.7	+ turning	S: 77 R: 148	Res breakout	0.70x
Daily	Recovering →	Bullish	56.8	− (flat)	S: 81 R: 116	Res breakout	0.78x
Hourly	Strong Down ↓	Bearish	30.3	− falling	S: 99 R: 108	Support breakdown	—
15-min	Strong Down ↓	Neutral	37.7	turning up	S: 99.5 R: 105	Support breakdown	—
Confluence: Bearish (choppy range) · MTF Score 46

A choppy, indecisive tape — a secular monthly uptrend but a weekly downtrend, range-trading $80-115 below the 200-DMA, with today's −5% risk-off drop leaving the intraday oversold. No confirmed direction; the stock whips on EM risk appetite. A pullback into $84-90 (support) or a reclaim of $115 would be the actionable levels; until then, and with the multiple full, the signal is HOLD.

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.

SE 6-month daily — volatile range $78-127, below the 200-DMA; -5% today on EM risk-off to $99.50.

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.

Bull $160 (25%)

Shopee profitability compounds, SeaMoney lending scales, Brazil delivers, and the market re-rates the profit ramp toward the $150 analyst high. ~+61%.

Base $120 (50%)

Steady SE-Asia digital growth, the profit inflection continues, the multiple holds ~27x forward, and the stock recovers toward the $120-125 analyst zone. ~+21%.

Bear $78 (25%)

A re-escalated subsidy war reverses Shopee's margins, or an EM/FX shock hits the high-beta name — the full multiple de-rates and it breaks the range. ~−22%.

Entry / Exit Rules

Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.

Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open

Fundamental — not MET

Full valuation — price is not below a disciplined fair value.

✅ Price $99.50 < fair value ~$115 (modest gap)

✅ No earnings within 7 days (next ~mid-Aug)

⛔ Valuation not Full/Expensive — FAILS (Full band, ~27x fwd)

Technical — not MET

Choppy below the 200-DMA; needs a reclaim of $115 or a bounce off $84-90.

⛔ Daily close > 200-DMA ($114) on volume

⛔ OR a tested bounce off $84-90 with a higher low

⛔ MACD histogram positive ≥2 days (daily negative)

Catalyst — not MET

Q2 (~mid-Aug) is the catalyst but it hasn't happened.

· Q2 beat on Shopee profit / SeaMoney with a >+5% move

Forecast: No group met → Wait. Technical — Low-to-Moderate confidence: watch a reclaim of the $114 200-DMA or a bounce off $84-90. The Fundamental group is blocked by the Full valuation. The Q2 print (~mid-Aug) is the next real catalyst. This is a 'wonderful franchise, wait for a better price or a confirmed turn' setup — HOLD across horizons.

Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

⛔ (For holders) two daily closes below $78 (below the range floor)

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

⛔ A re-escalated e-commerce subsidy war reverses Shopee's profitability

⛔ OR a Garena hit-cycle rollover / SeaMoney credit deterioration

⛔ OR the profit/FCF ramp stalls

Profit-Target — not LIVE

⛔ Price into $125-150 (median/high) with RSI > 70

Forecast: For holders the stop ($78) is ~22% below and below the range floor — plausible on an EM shock or a competition/profit scare. The near-term path is more likely continued range-trading $84-115 into the Q2 print.

Imagine you act at the current price of $99.50 · as of 23 Jul 2026

What if you bought now?

You're risking ~21% (to the $78 stop) to gain ~21% to the $120 base and ~61% to the $160 bull — buying a SE-Asia digital leader at ~27x forward.

Buying at $99.50 means paying a full multiple for a high-beta EM name in a choppy range below its 200-DMA, right after a −5% risk-off day and ahead of the ~mid-August Q2 print. What you gain is the #1 SE-Asia e-commerce/fintech/gaming platform with an earnings inflection and ~34% upside to the Street. Read: the franchise is excellent but the valuation is Full and the tape is unconfirmed — HOLD; a pullback into $84-90 or a confirmed reclaim of $115 (ideally with a strong Q2) is a materially better entry than chasing here.

What if you sold now?

Selling now sidesteps the EM volatility + full multiple; it gives up ~21% base-case upside and the SeaMoney/Brazil optionality if the profit ramp continues.

No exit rule is live — the profit inflection is intact and the balance sheet is net cash; this isn't a broken business, just a full price in a choppy tape. For a growth holder there's no forced sell; a risk-averse investor could wait for a better entry or a cleaner trend. The objective exit trigger is a profitability reversal or a competition-driven margin scare.

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.

Position sizing not computed — no risk budget/role specified. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 — Full valuation + unconfirmed choppy tape): watch $84-90 support / a $115 200-DMA reclaim / the mid-Aug Q2 print. High beta + EM/FX risk argue for a smaller position than the growth story alone would suggest. Illustrative, not advice.

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.

{
  "ticker": "SE",
  "date": "2026-07-23",
  "version": "v6",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "exchange_ticker": "NYSE:SE",
  "isin": "US81141R1005",
  "api_ticker": "SE",
  "company": "Sea Limited",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Discretionary",
  "sub_industry": "SE-Asia Internet (EM)",
  "lifecycle_stage": "high-growth",
  "price_at_rating": 99.5,
  "signal_short": "HOLD",
  "signal_medium": "HOLD",
  "signal_long": "HOLD",
  "primary_signal": "HOLD",
  "quality_score": 76,
  "valuation_score": 42,
  "timing_score": 48,
  "driver_score": 68,
  "overall_confidence": 52,
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 54,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
  "economic_alignment_source": "n/a-em",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
  "val_multiple_basis": "forward P/E",
  "warranted_multiple": 30,
  "actual_multiple": 27,
  "warranted_ratio": 1.15,
  "val_band": "full",
  "trailing_pe": 37,
  "forward_pe": 27,
  "fcf_yield": 5.6,
  "peg_fwd": 0.95,
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": 8,
  "clean_pe": 37,
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
  "competitive_threat_level": "elevated",
  "driver_commodity_trend": null,
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "gates_caution": [
    "Valuation (Full band \u2014 caps at HOLD)",
    "Structural/Competition (Temu/TikTok Shop)",
    "EM/FX"
  ],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "entry_groups_met": 0,
  "entry_conviction": "Wait",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "short_entry_confirmed": false,
  "short_cap_reason": "Short HOLD \u2014 Full valuation + choppy sub-200-DMA tape, -5% today on EM risk-off; no entry group met (Wait). Watch a $115 reclaim or a bounce off $84-90 / the mid-Aug Q2.",
  "fair_value_est": 115.0,
  "stop_loss": 78.0,
  "target_price": 120.0,
  "scenario_base_target": 120,
  "scenario_bull_target": 160,
  "scenario_bear_target": 78,
  "analyst_consensus_target": 133.6,
  "analyst_target_high": 150,
  "analyst_target_low": 121,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 34.3,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 73,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 44,
  "fmp_rating": "B",
  "fmp_overall_score": 3,
  "next_update_date": "2026-08-06",
  "next_update_basis": "default +14d (next earnings ~mid-Aug beyond window)",
  "next_check_date": "2026-08-06",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "finder_ticker": "SE",
  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE"
}

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.

Data Source Status

✓

get_stock_snapshot / prices $99.50 (−5.1%); 6-mo daily

✓

get_financial_ratios P/E 37 trailing / ~27x fwd, PEG 0.95, net cash, 6% margin

✓

get_multi_timeframe_analysis choppy/bearish, below 200-DMA, range $80-115

✓

get_price_target_consensus / grades $133.6 target (+34%) / Buy (73% bullish)

✓

get_stock_news no company news for the -5% — EM risk-off

⚠

get_earnings_calendar FMP empty; Q2 ~mid-Aug from Sea's cadence

⚠

macro report 2026-07-20 US sector map n/a for a SE-Asia EM name

Impact on scores: High coverage. The signal (HOLD/HOLD/HOLD) balances a strong franchise + earnings inflection + Driver tailwind against a Full trailing multiple and a choppy sub-200-DMA tape. Today's −5% was risk-off, not fundamental (no company news). The name is 'watch for a better entry,' not a fresh buy here.

DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

NYSE:SE Sea Limited

Sea Limited

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Business Quality

Valuation Attractiveness

Entry/Exit Timing

Underlying Drivers

Economic Alignment

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

Economic Event Risk

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

Scenario Summary

Bull $160 (25%)

Base $120 (50%)

Bear $78 (25%)

Entry / Exit Rules

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

Fundamental — not MET

Technical — not MET

Catalyst — not MET

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

Profit-Target — not LIVE

What if you bought now?

What if you sold now?

Position Sizing Context

Calibration Snapshot

Data Sources & Methodology