Lifecycle & sector. Sea Limited is a Singapore-based Southeast-Asian internet conglomerate spanning three segments — Shopee (e-commerce, the primary revenue driver), Monee / SeaMoney (digital financial services: ShopeePay, SPayLater, SeaBank), and Garena (gaming, Free Fire). We classify it Growth stage (high-growth that has flipped durably profitable): TTM revenue $25.2B at +46.6% YoY in Q1-26, now generating ~$1.43B of operating profit and ~$3.2B free cash flow. We score it primarily on growth, unit economics (TPV/take-rate, the EM-payments lens) and operating leverage, with balance-sheet quality as a floor — not on mature P/E alone.
| Sub-signal | Value | Sector read | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | +46.6% YoY (Q1-26) | Elite vs EM-internet peers (~20-35%) | 90 | Accelerating; FY25 +36% then re-accelerating into FY26 |
| Profitability vs peers | Op margin 8.2% TTM, rising | From breakeven (FY24) to expanding | 72 | Gross margin 44%; operating leverage real but margins still thin and reinvested |
| Cash generation | FCF ~$3.2B; FCF margin ~13% | FCF conversion ~2.0x net income | 78 | Cash is now structural, not a one-off |
| Balance-sheet health | ~$11B cash; D/E 0.28; int.cov 79x | Net-cash, top-decile | 88 | Current ratio 1.58; survives any EM risk-off |
Moat composite = 63/100. The Switching-Cost (55) and Cost-Advantage (60) sub-scores are derived from the Competitive Environment read below, not asserted — Shopee leads but the walls are actively being tested.
| Named rival | Threat type | Share trajectory (vs SE) | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| TikTok Shop (ByteDance) | Direct merchant rival | SE leads but rival gaining fast | +66% GMV in 2025 to 31% of platform GMV (vs Shopee ~59%); >40% share in Vietnam — pressures take rates & ad budgets |
| Temu (PDD) | Low-cost disruptor | SE gaining; rival entering | Ultra-low-price subsidy entry in SEA & Brazil — resets consumer price expectations |
| Lazada (Alibaba) | Direct merchant rival | SE gaining share | Lazada GMV -28% in 2025 to ~9% — SE is winning this leg |
| MercadoLibre | Incumbent (Brazil) | SE gaining (low base) | Shopee ~14% Brazil vs MELI 39%; gaining via low-commission/subsidy push — but compresses regional margins (the MELI margin-compression read) |
Net effect on the moat: Switching Costs trimmed to 55 and Cost Advantage to 60 (from a static ~70/70) to reflect TikTok Shop's rise; Pricing Power held at 50. Quality confidence carries a small haircut for the live take-rate risk. This propagates to the §11 Bear card and the §12 thesis-invalidation rule.
| Dimension | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC trajectory | Was negative through 2023; now ~12% ROE (returnOnEquity FMP sub-score 4/5) and rising as profitability scales | 65 |
| Capital allocation | Disciplined — exited unprofitable markets, no dividend, reinvests at improving returns; founder-led | 70 |
| Skin in the game | Founder/CEO Forrest Li retains dual-class control; SBC moderate; share count +~3%/yr (<5% gate) | 62 |
Quality = 76/100 (confidence 78%). A genuinely improving, cash-generative, net-cash leader — capped below 80 by thin (if rising) margins and a live, credible competitive threat.
totalOtherIncomeExpensesNet) = ~$300M = 18.6% of net income ($1.61B) — over the 15% line, so we score off the clean number, not a footnote.
But the boost is recurring net interest income on the ~$11B cash pile — and for the SeaMoney/SeaBank lending arm interest income is substantially operating revenue. This is not a private-stake mark-to-market markup (the trap the framework warns about); it is fully disclosed and recurring, so Gate 4 stays clear.
| Multiple | Current | Reference | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S (TTM) | 2.2x | 3-yr avg ~3.3x; long-run ~8.7x | Bottom decile of its own range — Attractive |
| EV/Revenue | 2.1x | EM-internet hyper-growth peers 3-6x | Cheap for ~35% forward growth |
| Forward P/E | 25.9x (FY26) / 18.6x (FY27) | vs MELI ~43x, NU ~25x | Reasonable; de-rated hard from the highs |
| PEG (forward) | ~0.88 | <1 = growth not paid for | Attractive |
| Clean trailing P/E | ~39-40x | vs reported 34.7x | Scored off this — modest drag only |
FCF yield (universal anchor): ~$3.2B FCF / $53.2B EV = ~6.0% (5.7% on market cap) — in the attractive 5-8% band, and rare for a 35%-grower.
Reverse-DCF / implied growth: at $91.28 the market capitalises ~$3.2B FCF growing only mid-teens to justify the price; consensus expects revenue +34.8% (FY26) and EPS compounding ~30%+ to FY28. The market is pricing in materially less growth than analysts expect → Attractive.
Analyst consensus target $133.6 (median $125, high $150, low $121) → +46.4% upside from $91.28. Price is >20% below consensus = strong support — but recency is thin (0 targets in the last month; targets were cut through the year as the stock fell), so we discount confidence rather than the level.
Grades consensus (get_grades_consensus — source of truth): 31 Buy / 11 Hold / 2 Sell of 44 → 70.5% bullish, "Buy" with ~30% holds — solid but not euphoric. Recent actions are maintain-heavy (JPM/Barclays Overweight, Bernstein/Wedbush Outperform; Deutsche upgraded to Buy in Nov), zero downgrades in 30 days.
FMP rating B+ (3/5): ROE 4, ROA 4, D/E 3 strong; P/E 2, P/B 2 flag the absolute-multiple premium — consistent with our "cheap on growth/sales, not on book/trailing-earnings" read.
Net — Valuation = 33/100 (confidence 75%) → Expensive → HOLD. The clean 39.5× trailing P/E sits above the 24× Consumer-Discretionary guardrail floor, so even though the ratio to the ~32× warranted multiple (r 9% / g 18%) is only ~1.24× (Full band) and the P/S, PEG and ~6% FCF-yield reads remain individually supportive, the guardrail floor is the binding anti-hype constraint. Expensive on the floor → the base signal is capped at HOLD and STRONG BUY amplification is blocked.
SE's fortunes sit above its own execution on Southeast-Asian digital consumption — the GMV/TPV growth of a ~650M-person region moving online (e-commerce + digital payments + gaming) — with a secondary overlay of EM risk appetite / USD & oil (a strong USD and an oil spike squeeze SEA consumers and EM multiples).
| Horizon | Read | Evidence (dated) |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Strong | SEA platform GMV +23% to US$157.6B in 2025; Shopee +18% broad-based (Momentum Works, 2026) |
| Current (50%) | Favourable, with a near-term consumer caveat | Shopee 53% regional share, #1 in all 6 markets; near-term Iran/oil spike a mild SEA-consumer headwind (news, May-Jun 2026) |
| Forward (25%) | Tailwind | Structural double-digit GMV/TPV growth intact; oil expected to ease (macro Oil SU/U/N) |
Driver score = 68/100 → Tailwind, amplification-eligible (≥65). It does not change the three fundamental pillar scores; it feeds the amplification stage, where — alongside a Tailwind economy — it would lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY. But Valuation is now Expensive (guardrail floor binds), so with High Quality the base is capped at HOLD and STRONG BUY amplification is blocked. Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained reversal in SEA GMV growth or a TikTok-Shop-driven take-rate collapse would flip the driver to a headwind. Confidence 62% (the SEA-consumption read is partly indirect/measured).
The 2026-06-20 Macro report (regime: Soft Landing / Reacceleration co-lead) rates EM Equities Outperform across Short/Medium/Long and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Outperform short/medium. Anchored on Medium, the economic pressure on SE is a Tailwind — the second amplification input. Short-horizon note: a firm USD (USD short = O) and the Iran/oil spike are mild near-term EM cross-currents, but the EM-equity line stays Outperform, so pressure is Tailwind at every horizon. This Tailwind, alongside the Driver (68), would lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY at all three horizons — but Valuation is now Expensive on the 24× guardrail floor, so with High Quality the base is capped at HOLD and the STRONG BUY amplification is blocked at every horizon.
Source: sector-map: EM Equities (O/O/O) + XLY Consumer Disc (O/O/N) · Macro report 2026-06-20
| Component | Read | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | 59 — recovering off a washout | Monthly uptrend & hourly strong-up, daily reclaimed the 50-day; weekly still downtrend, price below the 200-day ($123) |
| Risk-reward (20%) | ~50 | Price $91.28 just under daily resistance $94.4; support $80.8-81.8 then $77. Stop below $76.5 = ~3.3 ATR (wide) — better entry on a pullback |
| Relative strength | Laggard, turning | -31% YTD / -24% 6-mo (underperforms SPY badly) but +16.6% over 3 mo off the $77 low; ~in line with EM peers (MELI) |
| Macro overlay (15%) | ~55 | VIX 18.4 (neutral), Fed on hold/easing (3.63%), curve normal (+0.27); USD firm short-term is a mild EM drag |
| Sentiment (18%) | ~60 | Grades maintain-heavy bullish, 0 downgrades/30d; news tone positive ("undervalued, buy the dip"); but price targets trended down with the stock |
| Catalysts (17%) | ~70 (calm) | Next earnings Aug 18, 2026 — no event inside 30 days; no clustering |
Timing = 55/100 (confidence 72%). Position location: 52-week-range percentile ~12% (deeply beaten down), ATR ~4.9% of price, beta 1.57. The stock is recovering — value and momentum bottomed — but it is mid-range, just under resistance, with the weekly downtrend not yet broken. Timing offers no entry edge today, and with Valuation now Expensive the §12 ladder reads Wait — no entry path is open.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun) | Medium | 50.8 | 51.5 | ⚠️ Indirect | US growth-momentum read; SE has low direct US-macro sensitivity |
| 2026-06-24 | New Home Sales (May) | Medium | 2.9% | -6.2% | No | Not relevant to a SEA consumer name |
| 2026-08-18 | SE Q2-26 Earnings | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | The key catalyst — Shopee take-rate & margin trend vs TikTok Shop |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Philadelphia Fed Mfg (Jun) | 10.3 | 10.0 | +3.0% above | Mildly risk-on backdrop |
| 2026-06-18 | Initial Jobless Claims | 226K | 225K | inline | Neutral — soft-landing labour market |
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC Decision | Hold | Hold | inline | Rates 3.63%, easing bias — supportive for EM/USD over time |
SE has low direct sensitivity to the US economic calendar — there is no US release inside 14 days that swings the stock. The macro that matters for SE is SEA consumer health (oil), EM risk appetite and the USD, plus its own Q2 print on 2026-08-18. No high-impact, directly-relevant event inside the next two weeks → no WAIT-FOR-EVENT override.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 42 | -, hist neg | S: 55.0 R: 88.84 | Resist break | 0.5x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 42 | -, hist improving | S: 77.05 R: 99.97 | Support break | 0.6x |
| Daily | Recovering → | Neutral | 55 | +, rising | S: 81.84 R: 94.36 | Resist break | 1.0x |
| Hourly | Strong Up ↑ | Bullish | 53 | +, flat | S: 88.25 R: 93.76 | Resist break | n/a |
| 15-min | Weakening → | Neutral | 52 | flat | S: 90.10 R: 92.66 | none | 0.5x |
| Confluence: Mixed / Recovering off washout · MTF Score 59 | |||||||
The big picture: SE crashed from $199 to a $77 March low and is now basing/recovering — the monthly and hourly trends are up and the daily has reclaimed the 50-day ($87.9), but the weekly trend is still down and price sits well below the 200-day ($123). Textbook 'recovery in progress, not confirmed'. The level that matters: a daily close above $94.4 resistance confirms the turn; a pullback to $80-82 support with a higher low is the cleaner entry. Below $77 the recovery thesis breaks.
6-month daily close with SMA50 (orange). SE bottomed at $77 (Mar-26) and is recovering; reclaimed the 50-day, capped under $94 resistance, far below the $123 200-day.
Margin expansion accelerates (Shopee ads + operating leverage), Monee/SeaBank credit compounds cleanly, Garena re-accelerates, and TikTok-Shop competition rationalises. EM risk-on + softer USD re-rate the multiple toward ~3.3x P/S. Above the Street-high $150 on a full sentiment + multiple recovery.
Revenue +~30%, Shopee ads scale, modest operating-margin expansion; ~24x FY27 EPS / ~2.7x P/S. Deliberately below the $125 median / $133.6 consensus to haircut for competitive take-rate pressure. Prob-weighted blend of the three paths ≈ $117 (+28%).
Competitive trigger: TikTok Shop / Temu force a sustained Shopee take-rate cut and MELI-style margin compression (recall MELI's op margin fell ~600bp on the same dynamic); SeaMoney credit losses rise; EM risk-off + strong USD. Breaks the $77 52-week low toward ~$70.
Probability-weighted 12-month target ≈ $117 (0.25×$160 + 0.50×$120 + 0.25×$70), about +28% over the $91.28 price — skewed to the upside even with a full-weight competitive bear case.
Forecast: Fundamental path is now closed (Valuation Expensive on the guardrail floor), so no entry path is open and the ladder reads Wait. Technical ~2-4 weeks — Moderate: needs a daily close >$94.4 on >1.5× volume (reclaim) OR a pullback to $80-82 with a higher low; the recovering daily trend supports it but the intact weekly downtrend can reset the clock. Catalyst is date-locked to Q2 earnings 2026-08-18 — a beat-and-raise on >2× volume would open it (Moderate, given a maintain-heavy but bullish grade set). The first path to open would lift the ladder from Wait to Half-Size.
Forecast: Stop unlikely in 4-6 weeks — price is ~16% above $76.50 and above the rising 50-day. Thesis-invalidation watch is the Q2 (Aug 18) take-rate & Shopee margin trend vs TikTok Shop. Profit-trim is far off (needs +37% to $125 plus overbought).
What you're risking: the $76.50 hard stop is -16.2%; the bear path runs to ~$70 (-23%). The Technical entry path is not yet met — you'd be buying mid-range just under $94 resistance with the weekly downtrend intact, so a near-term shake-out toward $80-82 is live. What you're gaining: base upside +31% and bull +75% you start capturing immediately; a ~6% FCF yield and the (roughly free) ads + fintech-credit + LatAm optionality; +46% to the analyst consensus. Risk-reward ≈ 1 : 1.9 to base, ~1 : 4.6 to bull. Read: the raw risk-reward is still positive, but on the new warranted-multiple anchor the stock is Expensive at 39.5× (above the 24× guardrail floor), so the signal is HOLD and the entry ladder reads Wait — no starter here. A pullback to $80-82 (or a genuine re-rating of the multiple) is what would reopen an entry.
What you'd give up: the base move to $120, the embedded ads/fintech/LatAm options, and a name at bottom-decile P/S. What you'd protect: capital if TikTok-Shop competition compresses margins — but no exit rule is live right now (stop not hit, thesis intact, not at the profit target). Read: there is no mechanical reason to sell; with the signal at HOLD this is a hold zone — not an exit, but not an accumulate zone either while the stock screens Expensive.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
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"ticker": "SE",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:SE",
"isin": "US81141R1005",
"api_ticker": "SE",
"company": "Sea Limited",
"date": "2026-06-21",
"time": "1000",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "starting",
"section": "Emerging-Market Equities",
"finder_ticker": "SE",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"user_horizon": null,
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"price_at_rating": 91.28,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
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"quality_score": 76,
"valuation_score": 33,
"timing_score": 55,
"driver_score": 68,
"overall_confidence": 72,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "EM Payments / E-commerce (TPV growth + take-rate stability)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "Shopee GMV high-teens-30%, take rate rising; Monee TPV +60%",
"industry_benchmark_score": 80,
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"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 60,
"capital_allocation": 70,
"management_skin_in_game": 62
},
"valuation_detail": {
"ps_ttm": 2.2,
"ev_revenue": 2.1,
"forward_pe_fy26": 25.9,
"forward_pe_fy27": 18.6,
"fcf_yield": 6.0,
"implied_growth_rate": "mid-teens",
"consensus_growth_rate": 34.8,
"historical_valuation_decile": 1,
"peg_forward": 0.88
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 59,
"risk_reward_score": 50,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -31.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": 0.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15,
"rsi_daily": 55,
"range_52w_percentile": 12,
"atr_pct": 4.9,
"beta": 1.57
},
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 18.6,
"clean_pe": 39.5,
"clean_peg": 0.95,
"warranted_multiple": 32,
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"val_multiple_basis": "clean P/E",
"discount_rate_r": 9.0,
"risk_free_10y": 4.48,
"g_near": 18,
"g_term": 3,
"warranted_ratio": 1.24,
"val_band": "expensive",
"val_band_note": "Expensive via the 24x Consumer-Discretionary guardrail floor, not the 1.24x ratio",
"sector_guardrail_multiple": 24,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "elevated",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 70,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-20",
"fair_value_est": 118.0,
"stop_loss": 76.5,
"target_price": 120.0,
"scenario_base_target": 120,
"scenario_bull_target": 160,
"analyst_consensus_target": 133.6,
"analyst_target_high": 150,
"analyst_target_low": 121,
"analyst_target_median": 125,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 46.4,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 70.5,
"analyst_coverage_count": 44,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"fmp_rating": "B+",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": ["Valuation Ceiling — clean 39.5x above the 24x Consumer-Discretionary guardrail floor"],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-06",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (next earnings 2026-08-18 beyond window)"
}