Lifecycle & sector: Charles Schwab is a mature, established Financials name in Capital Markets (broker / asset-gatherer hybrid) — ~$10.8T client assets, scored on ROE, efficiency ratio, net interest margin (NIM) and net revenue, not on the FMP "revenue" line. Data-basis trap handled: FMP TTM "revenue" of ~$28.3B is gross interest income; Schwab's true TTM net revenue is ~$24.8B (net interest income + asset-management & admin fees + trading), and FCF/EV-EBITDA are not meaningful for a balance-sheet business. Although mature, EPS is in a clear re-acceleration (TTM EPS $5.40; consensus $6.15 in 2026, $7.33 in 2027) as deposit costs fall and NII re-expands.
| Sub-signal | Value | Peer / context | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability — ROE | 19.1% | >18% = exceptional for a capital-markets franchise | 88 | Net income $9.4B TTM on $28.2B book; FMP ROE sub-score 5/5. |
| Net revenue trajectory | ~$24.8B TTM, +~10% YoY | NII +46% from Q2'24 trough ($2.16B→$3.14B/qtr) | 78 | Deposit-cost relief + cash-sorting abating drive the re-acceleration. |
| Efficiency ratio | 50.8% (Q1'26) | <55% excellent for the sector | 85 | Scale operating leverage; expenses ex-interest $3.29B / net rev $6.48B. |
| Balance-sheet health | Current 12.4x; D/E 0.67x | Well-capitalised; interest coverage 3.5x | 72 | Tangible book depressed by AOCI (AFS mark-downs) but normalising as rates ease. |
| Capital return | Shares 1,831M→1,746M (−4.6% YoY); div +; payout 25% | Buyback resumed; dividend yield 1.29% | 76 | Disciplined — paid down high-cost supplemental funding, resumed repurchases. |
Moat score = average(55, 58, 76, 80, 70) = 68 / 100. Switching Costs and Cost Advantage are derived from the Competitive Environment read below, not asserted.
| Competitor | Threat type | Share trajectory (SCHW vs rival) | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity (private) | Direct full-service rival | Stable — both gaining in direct retail | Fee/cash-yield competition on idle balances |
| Morgan Stanley / E*Trade | Wealth + self-directed | Stable | Advice bundling, banking cross-sell |
| Robinhood (HOOD) | Low-cost disruptor | Losing share of younger retail growth | UX / crypto / payment-for-order-flow pricing |
| Interactive Brokers (IBKR) | Active / global traders | Losing share of active-trader growth | Lower margin rates, global access, platform depth |
| LPL Financial (LPLA) | RIA / advisor platform | Stable in custody | Advisor recruiting, payout economics |
Net effect on the moat: overall share is stable (Schwab keeps the custody/scale crown) but the incremental growth in fast retail/active niches leaks to HOOD and IBKR → Switching Costs trimmed to 76 (from ~80) and Cost Advantage held at 80. competitive_threat_level: moderate. This propagates to the §11 Bear trigger (share-loss / NIM compression) and the §12 thesis-invalidation rule.
ROIC / capital allocation: ROE 19.1% sits well above cost of capital; management has run a disciplined playbook — replaced high-cost FHLB/CD supplemental funding with lower-cost deposits, restarted buybacks (share count −4.6% YoY) and grown the dividend at a 25% payout. SBC is immaterial and share count is falling, so no dilution drag. Insider ownership is modest (skin-in-game ~55). Quality pillar: 79 / 100 (confidence 80%).
| Multiple | Current | Sector / history | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E (2026E $6.15) | 14.9x | Cap-markets peers ~15-18x (IBKR ~20, RJF ~13) | Attractive vs 20%+ EPS growth |
| Forward P/E (2027E $7.33) | 12.5x | — | Cheap on the out-year inflection |
| Trailing P/E ($5.40) | 16.99x | Own 5y range ~12-22x → decile ~3 | Lower third of its own range |
| PEG (fwd) | 0.94 | <1 = growth not paid for (TTM PEG 0.34) | Attractive |
| Price / Book | 3.25x | P/TBV 5.4x is optically high | De-emphasised — AOCI distortion (see note) |
| Dividend yield | 1.29% | Payout 25% — ample room to grow | Supportive cash anchor |
Reverse DCF / implied growth: at $91.70 (EV ~$147B) the market is implying only ~6-8% long-run earnings growth, versus consensus of ~15% near-term EPS growth (and a 24→27 EPS path of roughly $3.16→$7.33). The market is pricing in less growth than analysts expect → the valuation lens reads attractive.
Core franchise justifies roughly $105-112 of the price; the items above are largely free at $91.70. This is a +5 tilt to Valuation, not a re-rating.
Analyst consensus: median target $125, consensus $121.89 (low $105, high $137) — price is ~33% below consensus (+36% to median). Coverage 7 last quarter / 32 last year (deep). Price >20% below consensus → strong valuation support (target sub-signal 85+).
Grades distribution: 29 Buy / 18 Hold / 3 Sell (0 strong-buy/strong-sell) — bullish ~58%, holds 36%. Solid Buy consensus but with meaningful hesitation (grades sub-signal ~55). All 12 most-recent actions were "maintain" — no momentum either way.
FMP health rating: B+ (3/5). Sub-scores: ROE 5, ROA 4, DCF 4 (strong) vs P/E 2, P/B 1, D/E 2 (the P/B drag is the same AOCI tangible-book artefact). The divergence is informative, not alarming. Valuation pillar: 70 / 100 (confidence 80%).
Primary driver: the interest-rate regime & deposit-cost relief that powers net interest income, paired with equity-market levels that drive asset-based fees and trading. Schwab's P&L is geared to the spread between what it earns on client cash and what it pays — falling funding costs + abating cash-sorting are the live tailwind the Stock-Finder flagged.
| Horizon | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | NII troughed mid-2024 and is re-expanding hard (+46% from Q2'24); cash-sorting decelerated. Improving. | 75 |
| Current (50%) | Fed funds 3.63% (eased from cycle peak), deposit costs falling, client cash rebuilding, equities near highs supporting fee income. | 68 |
| Forward (25%) | Higher-for-longer / hawkish-Fed regime caps further cuts; a positive-but-flat curve (+0.27) still supports NIM; elevated equity levels carry some downside risk. | 62 |
Driver score = (75×0.25) + (68×0.50) + (62×0.25) = 68 / 100 — Tailwind. At ≥65 this is eligible to amplify a base BUY to STRONG BUY where the economy also corroborates (it does at the Medium horizon). The driver does not change the three fundamental pillar scores. Thesis-invalidation floor: the case breaks if deposit costs stop falling / cash-sorting resumes and NII re-expansion stalls. Driver confidence ~68% (rate path is policy-dependent).
Anchored on the Medium horizon, the macro pressure on Financials is a Tailwind (XLF Outperform short & medium) — rate-relief, a positive curve and resilient credit favour the group, so a long entry is Trend-Following. Per-horizon divergence: short-term, SCHW is lagging XLF and SPF (3-mo −1.7% vs +9.1% / +15.1%), so name-level short pressure is Neutral — the sector tailwind is not yet accruing to the stock, which is why the Short signal stays BUY (not amplified to STRONG). Long-run XLF is Neutral, so the Long signal is not amplified either. Only the Medium horizon gets the full Tailwind amplification (BUY → STRONG BUY).
Source: sector-map (GICS Financials → XLF: Short O / Medium O / Long N) · Macro report 2026-06-20
Risk-reward: price $91.70 sits in the lower third of its 52-week range ($83.96-$107.50, ~33% of range). Nearest support $87.84 / $85.58 / $83.96 (52w low); resistance $93.43 / $94.16 / $95.44 / $97.97 / $100.76. A logical stop below the $83.96 swing low is ~3.3 ATR away (ATR $2.34, 2.55%) — a relatively wide stop, partly offset by being near support. Reward to base ($118) vs risk to stop (~$83.5) is ~3.0:1.
| Sub-signal | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF confluence | Monthly uptrend, but weekly downtrend, daily recovering, hourly/15-min soft — tool confluence "bearish". Price below SMA200 ($94.74). | 51 |
| Relative strength | Lagging both benchmarks: 3-mo SCHW −1.7% vs SPY +15.1% / XLF +9.1%; 1-mo flat vs XLF +3.1%. | 20 |
| Macro overlay | Fed easing (deposit relief), VIX 18.4 (neutral), curve +0.27, Financials sector in favour (XLF O/O/N). Favourable. | 60 |
| Sentiment | All recent analyst actions "maintain" (0 up / 0 down in 30d); news neutral-positive (SpaceX-IPO brokerage access). | 50 |
| Catalyst cluster | FOMC (6/17) passed; next earnings ~mid-Jul (>30d). Calendar calm. | 70 |
Financials is a High macro-sensitivity sector → weights MTF 0.30 / risk-reward 0.20 / macro 0.20 / sentiment 0.15 / catalyst 0.15. Net Timing = 52 / 100 (Neutral, confidence 70%). Constructive sub-thread: the daily has reclaimed its 50-day, RSI 54, MACD turned positive (3 days) off the $83.96 low — an early turn. But the weak relative strength vs SPY/XLF and the bearish higher-timeframe confluence keep timing from confirming, which is exactly why the short-term call is held to BUY (not STRONG BUY) and the entry ladder to Half-Size.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun) | Medium | 50.8 | 51.5 | ⚠ Medium | Growth read for credit demand / markets activity |
| 2026-06-24 | New Home Sales (May) | Medium | 2.9% | -6.2% | No | Low direct relevance to a broker |
| ~2026-07-17 (est.) | SCHW Q2-2026 earnings | High | EPS ~$1.55 | $1.37 | ✅ Yes | NII / client-cash / NIM update — the key catalyst |
| 2026-07-29 (est.) | FOMC rate decision | High | Hold/Cut | Hold | ✅ Yes | Rate path drives deposit-cost relief (NII) |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC decision + projections | Held | Hold | In-line | Neutral — higher-for-longer tone; SCHW pulled back −3% |
| 2026-06-18 | Initial jobless claims | 226K | 225K | +0.4% | Neutral — labour still firm, supports lending/credit |
Financials is High macro-sensitivity, but there is no high-impact release inside the 3-trading-day WAIT-override window (FOMC already passed 6/17; the next rate decision and Q2 earnings are ~4-6 weeks out). The dominant ticker-specific event is Q2 earnings ~mid-July (estimated — get_earnings_calendar returned no date; treat as unverified), which is what the next-update schedule will front-run once it enters the 14-day window.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 54.3 | +, fading | S: 65.4 R: 96.2 | Resist. breakout | 0.9x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 48.2 | -, soft | S: 84.0 R: 98.5 | None | 1.1x |
| Daily | Recovering → | Neutral-Bull | 54.2 | +, rising x-over | S: 87.8 R: 94.2 | Reclaim 50d | 2.1x |
| Hourly | Weakening ↓ | Bearish | 35.1 | -, falling | S: 90.8 R: 93.9 | Support break | — |
| 15-min | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 44.4 | -, basing | S: 90.9 R: 94.6 | None | — |
| Confluence: Mixed / bearish-leaning · MTF Score 51 | |||||||
The big-picture monthly trend is still up and the daily has just reclaimed its 50-day with a bullish MACD cross off the $83.96 low — an early turn. But the weekly is in a downtrend, price is below the 200-day ($94.74), and intraday frames are soft, so the tool reads overall confluence as bearish. Textbook read: an attempted bottoming inside a still-unconfirmed higher-timeframe downtrend — favour the Fundamental (value) entry path and let the technical turn prove itself above ~$95 / the 200-day before adding.
6-month daily close. Rolled over from the Feb high ($107.5) to the late-May low ($83.96), now attempting a recovery back above the 50-day; the 200-day (~$94.7) is the line that confirms a higher-timeframe turn.
Deposit-cost relief + cash-sorting reversal drive NII above plan; buybacks accelerate as AOCI heals; equity markets stay buoyant lifting fee income. Re-rates to the Street high ($137).
NII re-expansion and 2026 EPS ~$6.15 / 2027 ~$7.33 play out; multiple holds ~15-16x. Converges toward consensus (~$122) over 12 months.
Equity-market drawdown hits client assets & trading, NIM compresses if the Fed re-tightens, AND incremental share leaks to Robinhood/IBKR in fast-growth retail/active niches (competitive trigger from step 7c). Re-tests the $84 low and below.
Probability-weighted 12-month fair value ≈ (0.25×$137)+(0.50×$118)+(0.25×$80) = ~$113, ~23% above the $91.70 entry — a favourable skew with the bear contained near prior support.
Forecast: Fundamental path is already MET, so a Half-Size starter is actionable now. The Technical path is the swing factor: a daily close above the 200-day (~$94.74, ~3.3% up) with the weekly turning up would flip it to MET and lift the ladder to Full-Size — FORECAST ~2-4 weeks at the current recovery slope (Moderate confidence; the 6/18 distribution day and weak relative strength can reset the clock). The Catalyst path is event-dependent on Q2 earnings ~mid-July.
Forecast: Stop is ~9% below and beneath the 52-week low — Unlikely in the next 4-6 weeks absent a market-wide selloff or an earnings-driven NII disappointment. Profit-trim at $125 is a 2-4 quarter event on the base path.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
{
"ticker": "SCHW",
"date": "2026-06-20",
"version": "v6",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"ticker_bare": "SCHW",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:SCHW",
"isin": "US8085131055",
"api_ticker": "SCHW",
"company": "The Charles Schwab Corporation",
"sector": "Financials",
"sub_industry": "Capital Markets - broker / asset gatherer",
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"price_at_rating": 91.7,
"signal_short": "BUY",
"signal_medium": "STRONG BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"primary_signal": "STRONG BUY",
"quality_score": 79,
"valuation_score": 70,
"timing_score": 52,
"driver_score": 68,
"overall_confidence": 70,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "ROE vs Efficiency Ratio (Capital Markets)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "ROE 19.1% / Eff 50.8%",
"industry_benchmark_score": 88,
"moat_score": 68,
"roic_or_roe_pct": 19.1,
"efficiency_ratio_pct": 50.8,
"capital_allocation": 76,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_detail": {
"fwd_pe_2026": 14.9,
"fwd_pe_2027": 12.5,
"pe_ttm": 16.99,
"peg_ttm": 0.34,
"fwd_peg": 0.94,
"price_to_book": 3.25,
"price_to_tbv": 5.42,
"dividend_yield_pct": 1.29,
"implied_growth_rate": 7.0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 15.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 3,
"fcf_yield_pct": 6.1
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 51,
"mtf_confluence_label": "Mixed / bearish-leaning",
"risk_reward_score": 50,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -16.8,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -10.8,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2,
"rsi_14": 54.2,
"atr_pct": 2.55
},
"moat_score": 68,
"fcf_yield": 6.1,
"implied_growth_rate": 7.0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 15.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 3,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -16.8,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -10.8,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 0.0,
"clean_pe": 16.99,
"clean_peg": 0.94,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"fair_value_est": 112,
"stop_loss": 83.5,
"target_price": 118,
"scenario_base_target": 118,
"scenario_bull_target": 137,
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 70,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map (XLF)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-20",
"analyst_consensus_target": 121.89,
"analyst_target_high": 137,
"analyst_target_low": 105,
"analyst_target_median": 125,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 32.9,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 58,
"analyst_coverage_count": 7,
"fmp_rating": "B+",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-06",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (next earnings ~mid-Jul 2026, beyond 14d window)",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-06",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "SCHW",
"finder_exchange": "NYSE",
"finder_fit": 77
}
Five-pillar read: Quality 79 / Valuation 70 / Timing 52 / Drivers 68 / Econ-conviction 70. Base matrix (High Quality + Attractive Valuation) = BUY at all three horizons; Medium amplifies to STRONG BUY (driver Tailwind 68 + XLF Medium Outperform); Short stays BUY (name lagging sector → short pressure Neutral); Long stays BUY (XLF Long Neutral). Hard-gate state clear; entry ladder Half-Size (Fundamental path only); no exit live.