NYSE:RIO Rio Tinto Group

Lifecycle: mature cash cow. Revenue is flat-to-low-single-digit (TTM ~$58bn; the business is size-stable), profitability is high and steady (EBITDA margin 36.6%, net margin 17.3%), and free cash flow is real but currently depressed by the Simandou, Oyu Tolgoi and Rincon growth capex — so we read it on operating cash flow (OCF/share $10.40 vs FCF/share $2.89). ROE 14.9%.

Warranted-multiple anchor (miner instantiation). Discount rate r ≈ 9.0% (10-Y ~4.35% + 4.5% ERP + 0 risk add-on, BQ ≥65). Disciplined growth g_near 6% (Materials cap), g_term 3%. Two-stage warranted P/E raw ≈ 19.5×, capped at the 15× miner guardrail. Actual clean P/E 14.8× → ratio 0.99 → Fair band (just under the rich line). EV/EBITDA 7.68× sits just under the 8× guardrail — same message.

Multi-timeframe confluence: bearish near-term. The long frames hold up — monthly and weekly are in uptrends and the stock sits above its 200-DMA ($87.84), so the secular leadership (+16% YTD context, 52-week range $58-113) is intact. But every near frame has turned down: daily is weakening with a support breakdown below the 50-DMA ($100.9), and hourly/15-min are outright downtrends. The live price is $90.96 after a −2.8% session on the 15 Jul ops-review reaction (a beat that sold off).

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

The 29 Jul H1 results + dividend and the same-day FOMC are the near-term twin catalysts; June inflation came in cool, a supportive macro backdrop for China-levered materials. Next update set to 30 Jul to capture both.

The long frames (monthly/weekly) remain in an uptrend and the stock holds above its 200-DMA ($87.84) — the secular leadership is intact (+16% YTD context). But the near frames have rolled over: daily is weakening with a support breakdown below the 50-DMA ($100.9), and hourly/15-min are outright downtrends with the live price at $90.96 after a −2.8% session on the ops-review reaction. This split is the whole story — a good business whose tape has turned down short-term. Timing weak; a short BUY is not confirmed.

RIO daily (Apr-Jul 2026). Live $90.96, below the 50-DMA ($100.9) after rolling over off the May $112 high, but holding above the 200-DMA ($87.84). Secular uptrend intact; near-term tape down.

Forecast: Fundamental group is MET now (Half-Size). Technical group: a 50-DMA reclaim (~$100.9) is ~10% above the live price — Unlikely inside 2-4 weeks without a positive H1/FOMC catalyst on 29 Jul; the reachable near-term path is the pullback-into-support branch ($87-89, the 200-DMA) if the current downtrend continues. Catalyst group: resolves on 29 Jul (results + dividend) — Moderate probability of a maintained/raised dividend given the fortress balance sheet, but the share reaction is the binary. Net: Half-Size now; a confirmed Technical or Catalyst trigger would lift the short signal to BUY and the size to Full.

Forecast: Stop-loss unlikely in the next 2-4 weeks (price $90.96 is ~5% above the $86.50 stop and above the 200-DMA), but the live near-term downtrend keeps it a genuine risk — a decisive iron-ore break below $95 or a poor H1 reaction on 29 Jul could gap price toward it. Profit-target ($101.75 + RSI>70) is not close. No exit trigger live → Hold.

Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.

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Signals HOLD / BUY / STRONG BUY (Short / Medium / Long). Short capped at HOLD by the technical-confirmation rule (Fundamental-only; Technical and Catalyst both unmet as the tape has rolled over). Medium is a BUY, not STRONG BUY — the Step-2b overlay caps medium amplification because iron ore is soft-but-stable rather than clearly rising. Long holds STRONG BUY on quality plus the unambiguous copper/energy-transition structural tailwind (macro Copper & XLB both Long SO). The flip vs the prior report (2 Jul) is Medium STRONG_BUY → BUY.