Rigetti Computing is a full-stack quantum-computing company: it designs and builds superconducting quantum processors (QPUs) and the systems around them, and rents access to those machines over the internet through its Quantum Cloud Services platform. Its flagship 84-qubit Ankaa-3 system and its on-premises 9-qubit Novera QPU are aimed at researchers, governments and enterprises experimenting with quantum algorithms. What distinguishes Rigetti is that it owns its own chip-fabrication facility and pursues a chiplet-based, error-corrected superconducting roadmap in-house — a vertically integrated approach — whereas most rivals use trapped-ion, photonic or neutral-atom hardware, or lean on outside foundries. For a reader: this is a pre-commercial deep-tech research company selling a science-fair-hard product to a still-forming market, not yet a profitable business — closer to a clinical-stage biotech than to an established chipmaker.
Lifecycle & sector: Technology — full-stack superconducting quantum computing. Classified Pre-Revenue / Speculative: TTM revenue ~$10.0M (Q1'26 $4.4M + Q4'25 $1.9M + Q3'25 $1.9M + Q2'25 $1.8M), lumpy system-sale-driven, with a negative gross margin and no path to profitability in analyst models through 2030. Per Step 0 we score this like a pre-commercial biotech: cash runway, milestone progress and moat durability matter; P/E, EBITDA and net margin are meaningless and are explicitly avoided.
Earnings-quality flag (Step 7b): Rigetti's headline GAAP "net income" is not a profit. Q1'26 reported net income from continuing operations of +$33.1M sits on top of an operating loss of -$26.0M — the gap is a +$59.1M non-operating gain from mark-to-market re-measurement of warrant/earn-out liabilities (the same swing runs -$180M in Q3'25, +$64M in Q1'25). Bottom-line net income was -$20.6M. We score Quality and Valuation on the operating reality (persistent ~$20-26M/qtr operating losses), never the warrant-distorted headline.
| Sub-signal | Value | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | ~$10.0M TTM; Q1'26 $4.4M (vs $1.5M Q1'25) | Tiny and lumpy; the Q1 pop is a system sale, not durable run-rate. Analyst 2026E ~$23.5M. | 40 |
| Profitability | Gross margin -20% TTM; operating margin deeply negative | Cost of revenue exceeds revenue; R&D ~$20M/qtr. No operating leverage yet. | 12 |
| Cash generation | Operating cash burn ~$58M in Q1'26; FCF negative | Structural cash consumer; every year of runway is a year of dilution risk. | 18 |
| Balance-sheet health | $569M cash & investments, ~no debt, current ratio 6.98 | Fortress. Best-capitalised-survivor status among quantum pure-plays — passes the widely-cited "2028 cash test" comfortably. | 85 |
Moat score = average ≈ 34/100 (early / weak). Non-applicable dimensions are scored where they apply, not zeroed.
| Rival | Architecture | Threat / share trajectory | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBM Quantum | Superconducting | Losing vs — 1,000+ qubit systems, Qiskit ecosystem, vast balance sheet | Scale, roadmap lead, developer lock-in |
| Google Quantum AI | Superconducting | Losing vs — Willow error-correction milestone | Technology parity/lead on the hardest problem (QEC) |
| IonQ | Trapped-ion | Losing vs — larger market cap, higher-fidelity narrative, more cash raised | Capital access, fidelity story |
| Quantinuum (Honeywell) | Trapped-ion | Stable-behind — highest gate fidelities, strategic backer | Fidelity leadership, enterprise channel |
| PsiQuantum / Infleqtion / D-Wave | Photonic / neutral-atom / annealing | Stable — architecture diversification risk | An alternative architecture could win the standard |
Net effect on the moat: → Switching Costs trimmed to 30, Cost Advantage to 30. competitive_threat_level = high; share trajectory = losing. Propagates to the §11 Bear (a "rival wins error-correction / capital flees the also-rans" trigger) and §12 thesis-invalidation.
Warranted-multiple anchor: N/A — Rigetti has no clean earnings, cash flow or book-value multiple that resolves, so the two-stage rate-and-growth anchor cannot be computed (Pillar 2 §6 graceful-degradation). We fall back to the pre-revenue lens (EV/Revenue) and apply a confidence haircut. The per-sector guardrail for a pre-profit IT name is EV/Revenue ≥ 20x = expensive on the floor alone; Rigetti is 12-30x above that floor.
| Multiple | Value | Guardrail / read | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/Revenue (TTM ~$10.0M) | ~591x | vs 20x IT pre-profit line — ~30x over. Extreme. | 5 |
| EV/Revenue (fwd 2026E ~$23.5M) | ~252x | Even on aggressive 2026 growth, ~12x over the line. | 10 |
| EV/Revenue (2030E ~$223M) | ~27x | Only reaches the neighbourhood of the guardrail five years out — and the company is still EBITDA-negative then. | 25 |
| Price / Book | 10.2x | Rich; book is mostly the $569M cash pile. | 20 |
Reverse-DCF / implied growth (narrative colour): at ~$6.0B enterprise value on ~$10M of revenue, the market is pricing Rigetti as if it will compound revenue for a decade at rates that reach hundreds of millions and convert to high-margin profit — an outcome no analyst model currently reaches by 2030 (2030E revenue ~$223M, still EBITDA-negative). The price embeds far more than the fundamentals, or even the bullish sell-side estimates, support.
Valuation band: EXPENSIVE. Even weighting the bullish analyst lens at its full 15%, the ~252-591x EV/Rev and negative FCF dominate — score 20/100.
Rigetti's fortunes sit above its own execution, driven by (1) the pace of quantum-computing commercialisation and whether error-correction crosses into practical utility, (2) government / DARPA / CHIPS demand for domestic quantum capability, and (3) the credibility of its superconducting qubit roadmap (Ankaa-3 → 100+ → 150+ qubit / 99.7% late-2026 → 1,000+ / 99.8% end-2027). This is a secular-growth, sentiment-heavy driver — not a commodity price, so the Step-2b commodity-trend overlay does not apply — but note the 'quantum stock' momentum factor is itself in a sharp downtrend (RGTI fell from $58 to ~$18), which caps the near-term read.
| Horizon | Driver read | Assessment | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical (12-24m) | Boom-then-bust sector sentiment; RGTI +>10x then -69% off peak | Violently pro-cyclical, momentum-driven | 50 |
| Current | Roadmap on-track (Ankaa-3, 99.5% fidelity), CHIPS LOI signed — but commercial revenue still negligible; sector momentum negative | Mixed: technical progress real, sentiment cooling | 52 |
| Forward (6-12m) | 150+ qubit / 99.7% milestone late-2026; large TAM optionality; but competition from better-funded IBM/Google/IonQ | Genuine long-run tailwind, uncertain timing | 62 |
Driver score = 58 — Neutral. It is not ≥65 (tailwind) and not ≤35 (headwind), so it is ineligible to amplify the base signal in either direction. This is the correct outcome: the tape does not justify a STRONG SELL amplification, and the extreme valuation blocks any STRONG BUY. The base BUY/HOLD/SELL is unchanged by the driver. Thesis-invalidation floor: a decisive error-correction win by a rival (Google/IBM) or a broken roadmap milestone would flip this driver to a headwind and is the live risk the §11 Bear and §12 exit rules carry. Driver confidence 45% (indirect, sentiment-driven, timeline highly uncertain).
Regime Contested — Soft Landing / Stagflation co-lead (30/30, Reaccel 27, DefBust 13), confidence Low-Med; UST10Y 4.48%, VIX 16.59 (risk-on), unemployment 4.2%. Quantum sits in the Technology sector (XLK), mapped Outperform / Outperform / Outperform — a mild Tailwind pressure, hence a Trend-Following stance. Conviction is tempered to 52 (from a higher sector read) because (a) RGTI's extreme valuation and tiny scale make it far more sensitive to an idiosyncratic sentiment/multiple de-rating than to the XLK tailwind, and (b) the regime is contested with only Low-Med confidence. Note on the armed 'S&P 500 concentration / AI unwind' tail: RGTI is a sub-scale quantum speculative name, NOT a mega-cap AI-cohort constituent, so it does NOT inherit that systemic tail — but it carries its own, larger idiosyncratic de-rating risk (modelled in the §11 Bear). Amplification effect: the Tailwind pressure would enable a BUY→STRONG BUY, but the base signal is SELL/DO-NOT-BUY, so it has no effect here; it does NOT enable STRONG SELL (that needs Headwind pressure).
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-03
Risk-reward (daily focus): price $17.94 is below SMA50 (~$20.2) and SMA200 (~$23.9), MACD negative, daily flagged support_breakdown. Nearest support $15.30 then the 52-week low $12.08; the logical stop below $12 is ~2+ ATR away (daily ATR ~$2.0), i.e. a wide stop — unfavourable risk-reward for a long. No oversold-reversal signal (daily RSI 41, not <30 with a positive divergence).
Relative strength: deeply negative — RGTI is down ~69% from its 52-week high and sits at ~13% of its 52-week range while the broad tape is risk-on (VIX 16.6); it is a heavy laggard on 1- and 3-month horizons. Near-lows position on a beaten-down high-beta name = 'could be value or a falling knife'; the strong-downtrend confluence says the latter for now.
Position-risk: beta 1.96, daily ATR ~$2.0 (~11% of price) — a 5% position behaves like ~10% in risk terms. Volatility-adjusted stop distance is wide; entry here is poorly located.
Macro overlay (Technology = low macro sensitivity, 10% weight): risk-on tape (VIX 16.6) is a mild positive, but rate-sensitivity of a long-duration, zero-profit growth name to the 4.48% 10-Y is a standing headwind for the multiple.
Sentiment layer: analyst grades all 'maintain' Buy/Outperform (Rosenblatt, Mizuho, Needham, Benchmark) — neutral-to-positive Street tone, but no fresh upgrades. News tone (Motley Fool 'Quantum Stocks Face a 2028 Cash Test') is cautious on the cohort while noting RGTI's strong cash position. Net sentiment neutral.
Catalyst layer: no earnings within 14 days (Q2 ~mid-Aug); milestone news (150+ qubit late-2026) is the next real catalyst but undated. Catalyst-clustering calm (~60) — the risk here is trend, not event clustering.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~2026-07-15 | US CPI (Jun) | High | — | — | Low | Tech is low macro-sensitivity; matters only via the growth-multiple / rate channel |
| ~2026-07-29 | FOMC Rate Decision | High | Hold (mkt) | — | Low-Med | Rate path drives long-duration growth multiples; RGTI is zero-profit so duration-sensitive |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Macro tape (context) | UST10Y 4.48% · VIX 16.59 · Unemp 4.2% | — | Risk-on, contested regime | Neutral for RGTI (idiosyncratic risks dominate) |
Rigetti has LOW direct macro sensitivity — its price is driven by quantum-sector sentiment, dilution and roadmap milestones far more than by any single macro print. The one channel that matters is rates: as a pre-profit, long-duration growth name, a higher-for-longer 10-Y (4.48%) is a standing headwind to its multiple. No high-impact release inside the 3-day WAIT-override window. (Note: a full economic-calendar pull was not run this session; dates shown are the known cadence and are flagged low-relevance.)
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Neutral | 52.6 | +3.62 / sig 4.27 (hist -0.65, fading) | S: $3.25 · R: $21.42 / $58.15 | Resistance breakout (stale) | 0.04x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 46.4 | -0.21, below signal | S: $14.79 · R: $19.21 / $20.17 | — | 0.58x |
| Daily | Strong downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 41.1 | -0.66, hist -0.39 | S: $15.30 / $15.46 · R: $22.57 / $23.57 | Support breakdown | 0.70x |
| Hourly | Strong downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 41.2 | -0.27, hist -0.02 | S: $17.55 · R: $19.55 | Support breakdown | 0.02x |
| 15-min | Strong downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 50.5 | -0.02, turning | S: $17.55 · R: $18.63 | — | 0.03x |
| Confluence: Strongly Bearish · MTF Score 33 | |||||||
The only bullish timeframe is the monthly — and its MACD histogram is already rolling over (the secular uptrend was built almost entirely by the 2025 spike to $58). Weekly has turned down and daily/hourly/15-min are all in strong downtrends with a fresh daily support breakdown. This is the textbook 'higher-timeframe rolling over into a lower-timeframe breakdown' pattern — sell-the-rip, not buy-the-dip. First real support is $15.30, then the 52-week low $12.08. A daily reclaim of the ~$20 SMA50 on volume is the earliest sign the downtrend is pausing.
6-month daily close (Jan-Jul 2026). The February slide, an April-May spike toward $27, and the June-July fade back below the 200-day ($23.88) — price now sits near the lower support band, below both the 50- and 200-day averages.
Quantum re-rates: the 150+ qubit / 99.7% milestone lands late-2026, error-correction progress reads credibly, government/CHIPS contracts expand, and risk-on sentiment sends the high-beta cohort back toward analyst highs ($40). A short squeeze on this ~$18, beta-1.96 name amplifies the move. This is a real, sizeable option — but a low-probability lottery leg, and the reason the probability-weighted mean sits above the point-estimate base.
Valuation gravity vs story tug-of-war. Roadmap progresses but revenue stays tiny and dilution continues; the extreme multiple compresses modestly as momentum unwinds, while the $569M cash pile (~$1.7/sh book, ~$1.7/sh cash) provides a soft floor. Stock chops in a $12-20 band, drifting slightly below spot to ~$16. Point-estimate fair value ≈ base ≈ $15-16, i.e. modestly below today's price.
Severe idiosyncratic de-rating (the modelled risk for a name that already fell 58→18). Triggers: a rival (Google/IBM) posts a decisive error-correction win and capital flees the sub-scale also-rans; a roadmap milestone slips; a risk-off leg hits high-beta story stocks; or a large dilutive raise. From 250-590x EV/Rev there is enormous room to fall — a halving to single digits toward the cash/book floor (~$1.7-2/sh is the hard floor far below) is entirely plausible. Competitive trigger carried from Step 7c.
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ 0.25×$42 + 0.50×$16 + 0.25×$8 ≈ $20.5 — which sits above spot ($17.94). Read this correctly: the weighted mean is dragged up by the low-probability bull lottery leg; the point-estimate (modal) fair value ≈ the base ≈ $15-16, below spot. The DO-NOT-BUY verdict is about paying an extreme, un-earned price for a very wide binary in a confirmed downtrend — not a claim that the average outcome is catastrophic.
Forecast: 0 of 3 entry paths open → Wait. Fundamental: unlikely without either a large price fall toward the cash-backed value zone (~$10, i.e. -44%) OR a step-change in revenue that is not in any 2026-2030 model — Unlikely in the near term. Technical: requires a daily reclaim of ~$20 SMA50 on volume, ~+13% against a strong downtrend — Unlikely in the next 2-4 weeks without a reversal catalyst; watch for a higher low off $15.30/$12.08 first. Catalyst: dependent on the undated 150+ qubit / 99.7% milestone (guided late-2026) or the Q2 print (~mid-Aug) — catalyst-dependent, not time-projectable. Net: no path is close; this is a Wait, consistent with the DO-NOT-BUY signal.
Forecast: For anyone already holding: Stop-Loss below $12 is ~33% away and not imminent at current trajectory, but the strong daily downtrend makes it a live risk on any negative milestone/risk-off leg. Thesis-invalidation is the one to watch — a rival error-correction win is a continuous, not dated, risk. Profit-target ($30+) is far away and would require a full sentiment re-rating. Exit action today: Hold (no trigger live) — but this is NOT a buy signal.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
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"quality_score": 30,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "Cash Runway + Milestone Progress (pre-revenue analog)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "multi-year runway; Ankaa-3 84q @99.5% fidelity",
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},
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"valuation_detail": {
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"historical_valuation_decile": 8
},
"warranted_multiple": "na",
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"val_multiple_basis": "EV/Revenue (TTM ~$10.0M); fwd-2026 ~252x",
"discount_rate_r": "na",
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"g_near": "na",
"g_term": "na",
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"timing_detail": {
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"risk_reward_score": 25,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -60,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -55,
"range_position_52w_pct": 13,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 60,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.1
},
"driver_score": 58,
"driver_label": "Neutral",
"driver_commodity_trend": "n/a (not a commodity-leveraged name)",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 52,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": "reported GAAP net income is >100% driven by non-operating warrant mark-to-market gains (Q1'26 op loss -$26.0M vs reported +$33.1M continuing-ops on +$59.1M other income; bottom-line -$20.6M)",
"clean_pe": "n/a (operating loss)",
"clean_peg": "n/a",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "losing",
"competitive_threat_level": "high",
"overall_confidence": 50,
"fair_value_est": 15,
"stop_loss": 12,
"target_price": 16,
"scenario_base_target": 16,
"scenario_bull_target": 42,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "donotbuy",
"gates_triggered": [
"Valuation Ceiling (EV/Rev ~252-591x >> 20x IT pre-profit line)",
"Accounting/Dilution (share count +~80% in 5 quarters; warrant-inflated GAAP net income)"
],
"gates_caution": [
"Financial Distress \u2014 chronic burn, but NOT a liquidity risk ($569M cash, no debt, current ratio 6.98)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [
"Trigger 2, absolute arm (a): EV/Rev ~252x fwd / ~591x TTM >> 1.5x the 20x IT pre-profit guardrail (30x), with no proven durable growth and no modelled profit path through 2030"
],
"analyst_consensus_target": 30.5,
"analyst_target_high": 40,
"analyst_target_low": 20,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 70,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 86,
"analyst_coverage_count": 7,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"fmp_rating": "C-",
"fmp_overall_score": 1,
"cash_and_investments_musd": 569,
"total_debt": "~none",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-17",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (no confirmed dated catalyst; Q2 earnings ~mid-Aug)"
}