Two thirds of the probability weight sits in the two paths that punish duration and broad equity: Stagflation at 48 per cent and Deflationary Bust at 20 per cent. Those punish equity by different routes — and note that a deflationary bust would normally see long Treasuries RALLY. They carry zero here anyway, because the macro rates them Strong Underperform on all three horizons and the macro signal governs. That is what drives every allocation below. The critical drivers:
Every macro signal is converted to a numeric tilt — SO = +2, O = +1, N = 0, U = −1, SU = −2 — then blended across horizons favouring the core:
Each tier has a budget across five buckets, filled with the highest-tilt blocks. Nothing the macro rates U or SU carries an overweight. That rule was VERIFIED, not merely intended: after building, each tier was reparsed from the rendered page and checked to sum to 100, each bucket recomputed against the method’s budget, and every holding tested against its macro signal. Those checks are the author’s, run on this artifact — there is no portfolio build tool in the repository, and an earlier draft of this very report did breach the budget band before that check was applied. Every position is tagged exactly one of:
| Bucket | Aggressive | Balanced | Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real assets / inflation hedges | 28% | 30% | 32% |
| Cyclical growth (equity + energy commodity) | 40% | 22% | 8% |
| Defensive equity | 7% | 13% | 10% |
| Contrarian recovery | 20% | 11% | 4% |
| Cash / short-duration ballast | 5% | 24% | 46% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Asset Class | Sector | Building block | Weight | ETF | Tag | Macro S / M / L | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | Energy | Energy | 15% | XLE | Trend | O O O | The direct beneficiary of the shock driving the whole regime, and 17.9% above its 200-day average. The largest equity line in Aggressive; stepped down as risk tolerance falls. |
| Equity | Materials | Materials | 13% | XLB | Trend | O O O | Gold and a softening dollar both push one way — the cleanest equity expression of this regime. Mining equities live here, NOT in the commodity sleeve above. |
| Commodity | — | Gold | 12% | GLD | Trend | SO SO SO | The strongest signal in the macro book (SO across all three horizons). The bid is fiscal debasement and reserve diversification — it holds even as real rates rise, which is why it is the anchor rather than a hedge. |
| Commodity | — | Copper / Ind Metals | 9% | CPER | Contrarian | U N SO | CONTRARIAN. U short, SO long — a three-notch gap, the widest in the book. Named in the macro divergences: real money sees physical tightness while fast money keeps it rate-suppressed. Bought BECAUSE it is currently out of favour. |
| Fixed income | — | Inflation-linked (TIPS) | 8% | TIP | Trend | SO SO SO | SO across all horizons. Core PCE is stuck at 3.34% with a live energy shock on top; TIPS do the job nominal Treasuries cannot in this regime. |
| Commodity | — | Oil | 8% | USO | Trend | SO O U | SO short, but U long — deliberately a SHORT-HORIZON position. Brent above $100 on a supply constraint; the long call fades on demand destruction, so this is the one line sized to be trimmed rather than held. |
| Equity | EM Equities | EM Equities | 7% | EEM | Contrarian | U N O | CONTRARIAN. U short, O long. A softening dollar and Chinese exports at +25% YoY against a synchronised tightening restart — the recovery is a later-horizon call, not a now call. |
| Equity | Health Care | Health Care | 7% | XLV | Trend | N N N | The ONLY defensive sector this macro does not penalise — genuinely uncorrelated to the active drivers. Staples (U) are squeezed by input costs and Utilities (U) compete with a 4.78% ten-year, so the usual defensive trio is one name deep this run. |
| Equity | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | 4% | XAR | Trend | O O SO | TREND. O / O / SO — positive on every horizon, which is the Trend definition. (It was briefly tagged Contrarian on the grounds that the tape has stopped paying, -11.7% on the month; that is a third criterion the method does not contain, and Agriculture has the identical O/O/SO profile and is Trend. Corrected.) Held on the structural procurement case: EU defence spend +8.6% in 2026, investment share 36.2% of budgets versus 24.8% in 2020. |
| Commodity | — | Agriculture | 4% | DBA | Trend | O O SO | A >90% very-strong El Niño peaking Oct–Dec, compounded by energy feeding fertiliser and freight. Small but genuinely uncorrelated to the rest of the book. |
| Commodity | — | Silver | 4% | SLV | Trend | O O O | Sixth consecutive annual supply deficit with ~75% arriving as a by-product, so supply cannot answer price. Sized below gold because it is the higher-beta expression. |
| Equity | Information Technology | US Tech | 4% | QQQ | Contrarian | SU U N | CONTRARIAN, and the weakest claim in the book — stated openly. SU / U / N: the long signal is LESS BAD, not positive, so unlike Copper (U→SO) and EM (U→O) it has no positive endpoint to recover to. The method's three worked examples all terminate positive, so this sits at the edge of the rule and is therefore held at TOKEN size only. SPY carries the identical -1.00 blended tilt and carries ZERO; the difference is that tech's penalty is shrinking across horizons and the index's is not. |
| Cash | — | Cash / Short Treasuries | 3% | BIL | Trend | — | Long Treasuries are SU, IG credit SU and high yield U — there is nowhere safe in duration this run, so cash does the job bonds normally would. Deliberately thin in Aggressive and dominant in Conservative; see each tier's note. |
| FX | — | Japanese Yen | 2% | FXY | Trend | SO O N | SO short. The BoJ hike is 97% priced for 18 September and the carry unwind has already begun — a haven that is also a live catalyst. |
| Total | 100% | ||||||
| Building block | Weight | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 15% | $15,000 |
| Materials | 13% | $13,000 |
| Gold | 12% | $12,000 |
| Copper / Ind Metals | 9% | $9,000 |
| Inflation-linked (TIPS) | 8% | $8,000 |
| Oil | 8% | $8,000 |
| EM Equities | 7% | $7,000 |
| Health Care | 7% | $7,000 |
| Aerospace & Defense | 4% | $4,000 |
| Agriculture | 4% | $4,000 |
| Silver | 4% | $4,000 |
| US Tech | 4% | $4,000 |
| Cash / Short Treasuries | 3% | $3,000 |
| Japanese Yen | 2% | $2,000 |
| Total | 100% | $100,000 |
| Asset Class | Sector | Building block | Weight | ETF | Tag | Macro S / M / L | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | Cash / Short Treasuries | 16% | BIL | Trend | — | Long Treasuries are SU, IG credit SU and high yield U — there is nowhere safe in duration this run, so cash does the job bonds normally would. Deliberately thin in Aggressive and dominant in Conservative; see each tier's note. |
| Commodity | — | Gold | 13% | GLD | Trend | SO SO SO | The strongest signal in the macro book (SO across all three horizons). The bid is fiscal debasement and reserve diversification — it holds even as real rates rise, which is why it is the anchor rather than a hedge. |
| Equity | Health Care | Health Care | 13% | XLV | Trend | N N N | The ONLY defensive sector this macro does not penalise — genuinely uncorrelated to the active drivers. Staples (U) are squeezed by input costs and Utilities (U) compete with a 4.78% ten-year, so the usual defensive trio is one name deep this run. |
| Fixed income | — | Inflation-linked (TIPS) | 10% | TIP | Trend | SO SO SO | SO across all horizons. Core PCE is stuck at 3.34% with a live energy shock on top; TIPS do the job nominal Treasuries cannot in this regime. |
| Equity | Energy | Energy | 9% | XLE | Trend | O O O | The direct beneficiary of the shock driving the whole regime, and 17.9% above its 200-day average. The largest equity line in Aggressive; stepped down as risk tolerance falls. |
| FX | — | Japanese Yen | 8% | FXY | Trend | SO O N | SO short. The BoJ hike is 97% priced for 18 September and the carry unwind has already begun — a haven that is also a live catalyst. |
| Equity | Materials | Materials | 8% | XLB | Trend | O O O | Gold and a softening dollar both push one way — the cleanest equity expression of this regime. Mining equities live here, NOT in the commodity sleeve above. |
| Commodity | — | Copper / Ind Metals | 5% | CPER | Contrarian | U N SO | CONTRARIAN. U short, SO long — a three-notch gap, the widest in the book. Named in the macro divergences: real money sees physical tightness while fast money keeps it rate-suppressed. Bought BECAUSE it is currently out of favour. |
| Commodity | — | Agriculture | 4% | DBA | Trend | O O SO | A >90% very-strong El Niño peaking Oct–Dec, compounded by energy feeding fertiliser and freight. Small but genuinely uncorrelated to the rest of the book. |
| Equity | EM Equities | EM Equities | 4% | EEM | Contrarian | U N O | CONTRARIAN. U short, O long. A softening dollar and Chinese exports at +25% YoY against a synchronised tightening restart — the recovery is a later-horizon call, not a now call. |
| Commodity | — | Oil | 3% | USO | Trend | SO O U | SO short, but U long — deliberately a SHORT-HORIZON position. Brent above $100 on a supply constraint; the long call fades on demand destruction, so this is the one line sized to be trimmed rather than held. |
| Commodity | — | Silver | 3% | SLV | Trend | O O O | Sixth consecutive annual supply deficit with ~75% arriving as a by-product, so supply cannot answer price. Sized below gold because it is the higher-beta expression. |
| Equity | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | 2% | XAR | Trend | O O SO | TREND. O / O / SO — positive on every horizon, which is the Trend definition. (It was briefly tagged Contrarian on the grounds that the tape has stopped paying, -11.7% on the month; that is a third criterion the method does not contain, and Agriculture has the identical O/O/SO profile and is Trend. Corrected.) Held on the structural procurement case: EU defence spend +8.6% in 2026, investment share 36.2% of budgets versus 24.8% in 2020. |
| Equity | Information Technology | US Tech | 2% | QQQ | Contrarian | SU U N | CONTRARIAN, and the weakest claim in the book — stated openly. SU / U / N: the long signal is LESS BAD, not positive, so unlike Copper (U→SO) and EM (U→O) it has no positive endpoint to recover to. The method's three worked examples all terminate positive, so this sits at the edge of the rule and is therefore held at TOKEN size only. SPY carries the identical -1.00 blended tilt and carries ZERO; the difference is that tech's penalty is shrinking across horizons and the index's is not. |
| Total | 100% | ||||||
| Building block | Weight | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Cash / Short Treasuries | 16% | $16,000 |
| Gold | 13% | $13,000 |
| Health Care | 13% | $13,000 |
| Inflation-linked (TIPS) | 10% | $10,000 |
| Energy | 9% | $9,000 |
| Japanese Yen | 8% | $8,000 |
| Materials | 8% | $8,000 |
| Copper / Ind Metals | 5% | $5,000 |
| Agriculture | 4% | $4,000 |
| EM Equities | 4% | $4,000 |
| Oil | 3% | $3,000 |
| Silver | 3% | $3,000 |
| Aerospace & Defense | 2% | $2,000 |
| US Tech | 2% | $2,000 |
| Total | 100% | $100,000 |
| Asset Class | Sector | Building block | Weight | ETF | Tag | Macro S / M / L | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | Cash / Short Treasuries | 34% | BIL | Trend | — | Long Treasuries are SU, IG credit SU and high yield U — there is nowhere safe in duration this run, so cash does the job bonds normally would. Deliberately thin in Aggressive and dominant in Conservative; see each tier's note. |
| Commodity | — | Gold | 14% | GLD | Trend | SO SO SO | The strongest signal in the macro book (SO across all three horizons). The bid is fiscal debasement and reserve diversification — it holds even as real rates rise, which is why it is the anchor rather than a hedge. |
| Fixed income | — | Inflation-linked (TIPS) | 12% | TIP | Trend | SO SO SO | SO across all horizons. Core PCE is stuck at 3.34% with a live energy shock on top; TIPS do the job nominal Treasuries cannot in this regime. |
| FX | — | Japanese Yen | 12% | FXY | Trend | SO O N | SO short. The BoJ hike is 97% priced for 18 September and the carry unwind has already begun — a haven that is also a live catalyst. |
| Equity | Health Care | Health Care | 10% | XLV | Trend | N N N | The ONLY defensive sector this macro does not penalise — genuinely uncorrelated to the active drivers. Staples (U) are squeezed by input costs and Utilities (U) compete with a 4.78% ten-year, so the usual defensive trio is one name deep this run. |
| Equity | Energy | Energy | 5% | XLE | Trend | O O O | The direct beneficiary of the shock driving the whole regime, and 17.9% above its 200-day average. The largest equity line in Aggressive; stepped down as risk tolerance falls. |
| Commodity | — | Agriculture | 4% | DBA | Trend | O O SO | A >90% very-strong El Niño peaking Oct–Dec, compounded by energy feeding fertiliser and freight. Small but genuinely uncorrelated to the rest of the book. |
| Equity | Materials | Materials | 3% | XLB | Trend | O O O | Gold and a softening dollar both push one way — the cleanest equity expression of this regime. Mining equities live here, NOT in the commodity sleeve above. |
| Commodity | — | Copper / Ind Metals | 2% | CPER | Contrarian | U N SO | CONTRARIAN. U short, SO long — a three-notch gap, the widest in the book. Named in the macro divergences: real money sees physical tightness while fast money keeps it rate-suppressed. Bought BECAUSE it is currently out of favour. |
| Equity | EM Equities | EM Equities | 2% | EEM | Contrarian | U N O | CONTRARIAN. U short, O long. A softening dollar and Chinese exports at +25% YoY against a synchronised tightening restart — the recovery is a later-horizon call, not a now call. |
| Commodity | — | Silver | 2% | SLV | Trend | O O O | Sixth consecutive annual supply deficit with ~75% arriving as a by-product, so supply cannot answer price. Sized below gold because it is the higher-beta expression. |
| Total | 100% | ||||||
| Building block | Weight | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Cash / Short Treasuries | 34% | $34,000 |
| Gold | 14% | $14,000 |
| Inflation-linked (TIPS) | 12% | $12,000 |
| Japanese Yen | 12% | $12,000 |
| Health Care | 10% | $10,000 |
| Energy | 5% | $5,000 |
| Agriculture | 4% | $4,000 |
| Materials | 3% | $3,000 |
| Copper / Ind Metals | 2% | $2,000 |
| EM Equities | 2% | $2,000 |
| Silver | 2% | $2,000 |
| Total | 100% | $100,000 |
The contrarian sleeve shrinks as risk tolerance falls — 20 per cent, 11 per cent, 4 per cent. Every one of these is uncomfortable to hold today, which is the point:
| Position | Agg | Bal | Con | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper / Ind Metals | 9% | 5% | 2% | CONTRARIAN. U short, SO long — a three-notch gap, the widest in the book. Named in the macro divergences: real money sees physical tightness while fast money keeps it rate-suppressed. Bought BECAUSE it is currently out of favour. |
| EM Equities | 7% | 4% | 2% | CONTRARIAN. U short, O long. A softening dollar and Chinese exports at +25% YoY against a synchronised tightening restart — the recovery is a later-horizon call, not a now call. |
| US Tech | 4% | 2% | — | CONTRARIAN, and the weakest claim in the book — stated openly. SU / U / N: the long signal is LESS BAD, not positive, so unlike Copper (U→SO) and EM (U→O) it has no positive endpoint to recover to. The method's three worked examples all terminate positive, so this sits at the edge of the rule and is therefore held at TOKEN size only. SPY carries the identical -1.00 blended tilt and carries ZERO; the difference is that tech's penalty is shrinking across horizons and the index's is not. |
Ballast. Gold, TIPS, cash, short Treasuries and the yen carry the downside work. Counting exactly those five lines: 25 per cent of Aggressive, 47 per cent of Balanced, 72 per cent of Conservative. Long bonds do none of it this run, by instruction of the macro signals.
Position caps. No single non-ballast line exceeds 15 per cent. The largest is Energy at 15 per cent in Aggressive, which is deliberate concentration in the one sector the shock directly funds.
The catalyst cluster is nine days wide and unusually dense. Five high-impact events between 10 and 18 September:
Three central banks decide inside those nine days — ECB on the 10th, the Fed on the 16th, the BoJ on the 18th. The cash sleeve is dry powder for exactly this — do not deploy it into the cluster.
{
"run_date": "2026-09-09",
"macro_report_date": "2026-09-09",
"macro_report": "MacroDriver_Weekly_20260909.html",
"dominant_regime": "Energy-shock stagflation, intensified: a Hormuz supply shock with Brent above $100 landing on core PCE stuck at 3.34%, a labour market that is holding and a household that is not. The Fed debate is hike-vs-hold, and a hike would reverse a cutting cycle.",
"scenario_weights": {
"Energy-Shock Stagflation": 48,
"Soft Landing": 22,
"Deflationary Bust": 20,
"Reacceleration": 10
},
"tiers": {
"Aggressive": {
"weights": {
"Gold": {
"pct": 12,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "GLD",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Inflation-linked (TIPS)": {
"pct": 8,
"asset_class": "fixed_income",
"vehicle": "TIP",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Silver": {
"pct": 4,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "SLV",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Agriculture": {
"pct": 4,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "DBA",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Energy": {
"pct": 15,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Energy",
"vehicle": "XLE",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Materials": {
"pct": 13,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Materials",
"vehicle": "XLB",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Oil": {
"pct": 8,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "USO",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Health Care": {
"pct": 7,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Health Care",
"vehicle": "XLV",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Copper / Ind Metals": {
"pct": 9,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "CPER",
"tag": "contra"
},
"EM Equities": {
"pct": 7,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "EM Equities",
"vehicle": "EEM",
"tag": "contra"
},
"US Tech": {
"pct": 4,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Information Technology",
"vehicle": "QQQ",
"tag": "contra"
},
"Aerospace & Defense": {
"pct": 4,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Industrials",
"vehicle": "XAR",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Cash / Short Treasuries": {
"pct": 3,
"asset_class": "cash",
"vehicle": "BIL",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Japanese Yen": {
"pct": 2,
"asset_class": "fx",
"vehicle": "FXY",
"tag": "trend"
}
},
"trend_pct": 80,
"contrarian_pct": 20
},
"Balanced": {
"weights": {
"Gold": {
"pct": 13,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "GLD",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Inflation-linked (TIPS)": {
"pct": 10,
"asset_class": "fixed_income",
"vehicle": "TIP",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Silver": {
"pct": 3,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "SLV",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Agriculture": {
"pct": 4,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "DBA",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Energy": {
"pct": 9,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Energy",
"vehicle": "XLE",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Materials": {
"pct": 8,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Materials",
"vehicle": "XLB",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Oil": {
"pct": 3,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "USO",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Health Care": {
"pct": 13,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Health Care",
"vehicle": "XLV",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Copper / Ind Metals": {
"pct": 5,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "CPER",
"tag": "contra"
},
"EM Equities": {
"pct": 4,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "EM Equities",
"vehicle": "EEM",
"tag": "contra"
},
"US Tech": {
"pct": 2,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Information Technology",
"vehicle": "QQQ",
"tag": "contra"
},
"Aerospace & Defense": {
"pct": 2,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Industrials",
"vehicle": "XAR",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Cash / Short Treasuries": {
"pct": 16,
"asset_class": "cash",
"vehicle": "BIL",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Japanese Yen": {
"pct": 8,
"asset_class": "fx",
"vehicle": "FXY",
"tag": "trend"
}
},
"trend_pct": 89,
"contrarian_pct": 11
},
"Conservative": {
"weights": {
"Gold": {
"pct": 14,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "GLD",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Inflation-linked (TIPS)": {
"pct": 12,
"asset_class": "fixed_income",
"vehicle": "TIP",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Silver": {
"pct": 2,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "SLV",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Agriculture": {
"pct": 4,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "DBA",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Energy": {
"pct": 5,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Energy",
"vehicle": "XLE",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Materials": {
"pct": 3,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Materials",
"vehicle": "XLB",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Health Care": {
"pct": 10,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "Health Care",
"vehicle": "XLV",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Copper / Ind Metals": {
"pct": 2,
"asset_class": "commodity",
"vehicle": "CPER",
"tag": "contra"
},
"EM Equities": {
"pct": 2,
"asset_class": "equity",
"gics_sector": "EM Equities",
"vehicle": "EEM",
"tag": "contra"
},
"Cash / Short Treasuries": {
"pct": 34,
"asset_class": "cash",
"vehicle": "BIL",
"tag": "trend"
},
"Japanese Yen": {
"pct": 12,
"asset_class": "fx",
"vehicle": "FXY",
"tag": "trend"
}
},
"trend_pct": 96,
"contrarian_pct": 4
}
},
"note": "Defensive-equity budget was cut and moved to ballast because this macro rates Staples U and Utilities U; only Health Care is non-negative. Long duration carries zero weight in all three tiers (TLT SU, LQD SU, HYG U)."
}