Palantir builds enterprise software that pulls an organisation's scattered data into one operating picture and lets people (and, now, AI agents) act on it. Three core platforms carry the business: Gotham, the intelligence/defence system used across the US and allied governments for counter-terrorism and operations; Foundry, the commercial equivalent that gives companies a central data operating system; and AIP, the Artificial Intelligence Platform that wires large language models into a customer's real data and workflows. The unique position is decades of deep, sticky government and defence integration paired with the fastest-growing commercial-AI franchise in software — revenue grew ~68% over the trailing year with 84% gross margins and a Rule-of-40 north of 120. Founded in 2003, headquartered in Denver, Colorado, run by co-founder Alex Karp.
Palantir is scored on the Technology / SaaS profile at a High-Growth lifecycle stage. On the business itself it is close to the top of the software universe.
| Sub-signal | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | +68% YoY TTM (FY26 guide ~72%) | Accelerating — elite for scale ($5.2B TTM) |
| Gross margin | 84.1% | Top-decile software |
| Operating / net margin (TTM) | 38.1% / 43.7% | GAAP-profitable and expanding |
| Cash generation | FCF margin ~51%; FCF conversion > 1.0× | Cash-rich, real earnings |
| Balance sheet | Net cash, D/E 0.03, current ratio 6.9× | Fortress |
| SBC % revenue | ~14% | Elevated but below the 25% red line |
Moat score 69/100. ROIC sits top-quartile vs software peers (90th pctile); capital allocation disciplined (net cash, no value-destroying M&A); management skin-in-the-game ~60 (founder-led, but RSU-heavy comp and steady insider dispositions).
| Rival | Arena | Share trend vs PLTR |
|---|---|---|
| Databricks / Snowflake | Commercial data + AI platform | Contested — PLTR gaining in outcome-led deals |
| Microsoft (Fabric / Azure AI) | Enterprise AI stack | Well-funded incumbent pressure |
| Booz Allen / Leidos / primes | US government / defence | PLTR gaining software share |
| Anduril | Operational defence AI | New credible entrant, edge-focused |
THE ANCHOR — Warranted-Multiple Valuation. This is the exact name the anchor exists for. A company is the present value of its future cash flows; two levers set the warranted multiple — growth lifts it, the discount rate (rising with rates) lowers it.
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free (10-Y UST) | 4.53% | Macro state 2026-07-14 (10-Y a live headwind > 4.5%) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% | Fixed global constant |
| Risk add-on | +0.0% (Quality ≥ 65) | Framework |
| Discount rate r | 9.03% | Sum |
| g_near (yrs 1-5) | 15% | IT secular cap (consensus ~72% haircut ×0.75 far exceeds cap → capped) |
| g_term (yr 6+) | 3% | Long-run nominal GDP |
| Warranted P/E (two-stage, IT-guardrail capped 33×) | 28.2× | DCF |
| Actual clean P/E | 168.6× | Step-7b clean earnings |
| Actual ÷ Warranted | 5.98× | → EXPENSIVE (<40) |
nonOperatingIncomeExcludingInterest is negative every quarter — so, unlike some mega-cap AI names, PLTR's earnings are not inflated by mark-to-market markups on private-AI stakes. Stripping after-tax interest income leaves clean diluted EPS ≈ $0.79 → clean P/E ≈ 169× (reported P/E is a lower 151×; normalisation moves the multiple in the conservative direction here).Guardrail floor. Actual clean P/E 169× is 5.1× the Information-Technology 'rich' line of 33× — Expensive on the floor alone, independent of the ratio. Double-confirmed.
Implied-growth read (narrative colour). At $134 the market implies roughly a 70% five-year CAGR sustained — the most-bullish Street path. Our disciplined estimate is the 15% sector-achievable rate. The price embeds far more growth than even an elite franchise can be underwritten for.
| Relative cross-check | Reading |
|---|---|
| Sector median (20%) | P/S ~59× vs software median ~7× — richest in the group |
| Own-history decile (15%) | Decile ~6 — rich but below the 2025 peak (~119× P/S) |
| PEG (10%) | ~3.9 on forward EPS growth — expensive |
| Analyst consensus (15%) | Median target $190 (+42%); grades 12 Buy / 11 Hold / 3 Sell (Buy) |
The relative lenses only order names within the Expensive band; none lifts PLTR out of it. Valuation score 29/100.
PLTR is tethered to two of the strongest secular forces in the macro map: the AI & Productivity Revolution and NATO Rearmament / Global Defense — reinforced by the live Gulf conflict's defence-spending bid. AIP is the fastest commercial-AI adoption story in software; US commercial revenue grew ~133% in Q1.
| Horizon | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Historical | 85 | AIP land-and-expand + government backlog compounding |
| Current | 83 | Tailwind intact; soft CPI eased the near-term multiple headwind |
| Forward | 76 | Trimmed: the token-cost / AI-pricing deflation debate (Arora, Chamath) is a live margin threat to the applied-AI cohort |
Amplification role: Strong Tailwind (81) — eligible to lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY if the economy corroborated. But the base signal is HOLD (Expensive valuation), and HOLD is never amplified. Driver is context only here. Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained AI-cohort de-rating or an AIP net-revenue-retention slowdown breaks the growth-justifies-price case.
The 14 Jul macro reads Stagflation-lite with the 10-Y a live headwind for long-duration equities and — critically for PLTR — the S&P-500-concentration / AI-earnings-quality tail is ARMED (top-10 ~41% of the index, top-10 P/E ~50; SPY vs RSP re-widening). XLK is Neutral short / Outperform medium-long, but PLTR sits at the extreme-duration, extreme-multiple end of that sector, so its economic pressure is Neutral (not the sector's mild positive) — the concentration tail is a downside asymmetry specific to names like this. A long entry here is Contrarian (fighting the rate-and-concentration headwind), conviction 48. The pressure is Neutral, so it enables no amplification for any horizon.
Source: watchlist-signal (XLK proxy — PLTR not on the macro watchlist) · Macro report 2026-07-14
Risk-reward — no entry edge, and it does not matter. Price is essentially flat versus the prior report (~$130 → $134), so nothing in the tape has resolved the core problem: the stock is priced at roughly 169× clean earnings against a rate-and-growth-warranted ~28×. Even a constructive short-term setup would not earn a buy, because Gate 3 (Valuation Ceiling) caps the signal at HOLD and Do-Not-Buy Trigger 2 then overrides it to DO NOT BUY on all three horizons. Timing is scored for completeness, not as a swing factor.
Momentum. The multi-month advance has flattened; momentum is neutral-to-fading rather than breaking down, consistent with a name consolidating at a stretched valuation. There is no oversold, high-conviction reversal setup that would argue for accumulation, and no confirmed breakout worth chasing at this multiple.
Relative strength & macro overlay. As a prime member of the AI-mega-cap cohort, PLTR is highly sensitive to the macro report's armed “S&P-500 concentration / AI-earnings-quality unwind” tail — a market-level de-rating would hit it disproportionately (the §11 Bear models 169× compressing toward ~90× on flat earnings, a 40–50% drawdown). The macro is a latent headwind to the multiple, not a tailwind.
Entry / exit read. Conviction ladder: Wait (0 of 3 paths met) — Fundamental fails (far above any fair-value line), Technical offers no supported entry, Catalyst none in window. Two exit triggers are live for existing holders (thesis-invalidation on the valuation extreme + a profit-trim), pointing to Reduce/Trim rather than add. Net: there is no timing case for a new position, and the framework’s answer is set by valuation, not the chart.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | US Retail Sales (Jun) | Medium | +0.3% MoM | — | Indirect | Consumer read; risk-tone for high-beta tech |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC Decision | High | Hold 4.25-4.50% | — | Yes | Moves the 10-Y and the warranted multiple for long-duration PLTR |
| 2026-08-10 | PLTR Q2 FY26 Earnings | High | EPS ~$0.19 / Rev ~$1.9B | — | Yes | The re-rate catalyst; guidance tests the AI-cohort multiple |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | US CPI (Jun) | Soft | — | Dovish 1-day blip | Eased near-term multiple headwind; NOT tape-confirmed (2Y 4.26% ~63bp over funds) |
| 2026-07-15 | PPI (Jun) | In line | +0.2% | — | Neutral |
No PLTR-specific event inside 7 days, so no WAIT-for-event override. The two that matter are the 29 Jul FOMC (rate path → warranted multiple) and the ~10 Aug Q2 earnings (the next outlook-changing event and the scheduled next update).
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | ↑ | 55 | Bearish cross (hist −6.9) | R 207 / S 66 | Above 20-EMA | Light |
| Weekly | Downtrend | ↓ | 47 | Below signal | S 122.7 / R 163.7 | Support breakdown; below falling 50-wk 156.9 | Light |
| Daily | Recovering | → | 55 | Positive cross (hist +1.77) | S 124.8 / R 138.9 | Reclaimed 50-DMA 132.8; below 200-DMA 156.1 | Below avg |
| Hourly | Strong uptrend | ↑ | 59 | Flat | S 127.6 / R 136.9 | Resistance breakout | Thin |
| 15-min | Strong uptrend | ↑ | 53 | Flat | S 132.9 / R 136.9 | Breakout | 1.5× vol |
| Confluence: Mixed / transitioning · MTF Score 48 | |||||||
The tape is genuinely split: a monthly uptrend and a fresh daily 50-DMA reclaim with a positive MACD cross sit against a weekly downtrend below a falling 50-week average, and price ~14% below its 200-DMA and ~36% off the 52-week high. The intraday 'strongly bullish' reading is a short-horizon bounce, not a trend turn. Timing 48 — a neutral, no-edge reading. This matters little for the verdict: the DO-NOT-BUY is a valuation/tail call, not a timing call.
PLTR washed to $106.37 (−20%) in the late-June risk-off, then V-reclaimed the 50-DMA. Still ~14% below the 200-DMA (156) and ~36% off the 52-wk high (207.52).
AIP commercial re-accelerates through 50%+, Q2 guidance is raised, and the AI-concentration tail stays dormant — the mega-cap AI trade re-crowds and PLTR re-rates back toward its 2025 highs. +57% from $134. This is the market's priced-in path; it requires flawless execution AND a benign macro.
Growth stays elite but the multiple compresses toward its own recent range as rates stay higher-for-longer; the stock grinds in a $120-160 band and earnings do the work the multiple can't. +12% from $134 — but with an asymmetric downside skew given the starting valuation.
The ARMED S&P-500-concentration / AI-earnings-quality tail fires — a hyperscaler capex cut, a private-AI markdown, or a Q2 mega-cap guide-down triggers a COHORT-LEVEL multiple compression. PLTR, at 169× clean earnings, is a prime de-rating candidate: a move from ~169× toward even ~90× on flat earnings is a 40-50% drawdown. −29% from $134, and the tail-scenario weight is raised to 30% precisely because the macro flags this as live.
Forecast: Rule Forecast: entry stays SHUT while the Do-Not-Buy is live. The trigger clears only if the price falls into the warranted band (a clean multiple back toward ~28-40× — roughly a sub-$60 print on current earnings, or earnings catching up over years) OR the armed AI-concentration tail is explicitly disarmed in a future macro report AND the multiple has compressed out of the Expensive band. Neither is close. Watch the ~10 Aug Q2 print and the 29 Jul FOMC for the first move in either input.
Forecast: For an existing holder (this report is not advice): the Thesis-Invalidation group is LIVE on the valuation-plus-armed-tail combination, so the framework read is Reduce/Trim into strength rather than initiate. A stop below $118 would confirm the weekly breakdown.
No allocation was supplied (batch run), so position sizing is not computed. In any case the §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry paths met) and the signal is DO NOT BUY — the guidance is to watch the levels and the two catalysts (29 Jul FOMC, ~10 Aug earnings), not to size a position.
{
"ticker": "PLTR",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:PLTR",
"isin": "US69608A1088",
"company": "Palantir Technologies Inc.",
"currency": "USD",
"date": "2026-07-16",
"price_at_rating": 133.76,
"signal_short": "DO NOT BUY",
"signal_medium": "DO NOT BUY",
"signal_long": "DO NOT BUY",
"primary_signal": "DO NOT BUY",
"quality_score": 85,
"valuation_score": 29,
"timing_score": 48,
"driver_score": 81,
"moat_score": 69,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 10.7,
"clean_pe": 169,
"clean_peg": 3.9,
"reported_pe": 150.7,
"warranted_multiple": 28.2,
"actual_multiple": 168.6,
"warranted_ratio": 5.98,
"val_band": "expensive",
"discount_rate_r": 0.0903,
"risk_free_10y": 0.0453,
"g_near": 0.15,
"g_term": 0.03,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Contrarian",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 48,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"fair_value_est": 115,
"stop_loss": 118,
"target_price": 150,
"scenario_bull_target": 210,
"scenario_base_target": 150,
"scenario_bear_target": 95,
"scenario_probabilities": {
"bull": 0.25,
"base": 0.45,
"bear": 0.3
},
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 2,
"exit_action": "Reduce",
"hard_gate_state": "donotbuy",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"gates_triggered": [
"valuation_ceiling (Gate 3): clean P/E 169x >= IT guardrail 33x AND 5.98x warranted"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [
"Trigger 2 (Valuation Extreme, absolute): 5.98x warranted / 5.1x guardrail; arm (a) deep-expensive AND arm (b) Expensive + armed AI-concentration tail -> DO NOT BUY all horizons"
],
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"next_update_date": "2026-08-11",
"next_update_basis": "Q2 FY26 earnings ~10 Aug + 1 trading day (next outlook-changing event)"
}
Signal flips HOLD → DO NOT BUY on all three horizons — a framework move, not tape deterioration. Price is essentially flat ($129 → $134) and clean P/E ≈ 169× in both this and the prior report; what changed is (1) applying the warranted-multiple anchor correctly (169× = 5.98× warranted, 5.1× the IT guardrail → Expensive, firing Gate 3), and (2) the macro's S&P-500-concentration / AI-earnings-quality tail becoming armed, which — for a prime AI-cohort name — trips DNB Trigger 2's arm (b), while arm (a) deep-expensive fires on its own. Quality (85) and the driver (81) are unchanged; the verdict is entirely about price and asymmetric tail risk.