Palantir builds enterprise software platforms that let large, data-heavy organisations pull scattered data into a single decision-making system. Its core products are Gotham (for defense and intelligence), Foundry (a commercial data operating system), Apollo (deployment), and AIP, its AI platform that wires large language models directly onto a customer's own operational data via Palantir's “ontology.” What sets Palantir apart is the combination the market pays a premium for: a hardened government-accreditation moat (deep US and allied defense/intelligence relationships) fused with a fast-growing US commercial business, delivered as an all-in-one ontology + pipelines + AI-orchestration stack that no single rival fully replicates. Think of it as the AI operating layer for governments and Fortune-500 enterprises — an elite-margin, fortress-balance-sheet software company whose debate is entirely about price, not quality.
Lifecycle / sector: High-Growth (Stage 2–3) Software-Infrastructure. Scored on SaaS metrics (Rule of 40, gross/FCF margin, NRR-proxy growth, moat) rather than trailing P/E.
| Sub-signal | Value | Peer / context | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | TTM $5.22B, +67.7% YoY; Q1-FY26 +85% YoY; FY26 guide +71% | SaaS median ~15%; accelerating vs FY25 (+56%) | 95 | Top-decile, and accelerating |
| Gross margin | 84.1% | Software strong >80% | 88 | Elite |
| FCF margin / conversion | ~51% FCF margin; FCF/OCF 0.99 | Rare at this growth | 93 | Cash machine |
| Balance sheet | Net cash ~$8B, no debt, current ratio 6.9× | Fortress | 96 | No solvency risk |
| SBC drag | SBC ~14% of revenue | Red flag >20% | 62 | Elevated but improving; not a gate |
Commands ~80× forward revenue and premium ACVs; cheaper Databricks/Snowflake alternatives cap it in non-regulated deals.
Ontology + shared data model compounds within an account, but not a true two-sided network.
Foundry/Gotham/ontology sit under mission-critical workflows; very sticky in regulated/gov, softer in commercial.
Premium-priced, forward-deployed-engineer model — NOT a low-cost operator; rivals undercut on price.
US/allied defense accreditation (IL5/IL6), clearances and AIP brand are genuine entry barriers.
Moat score ≈ 69/100 — strong, anchored in the government-accreditation + ontology vertical.
| Competitor | Threat type | Share trajectory vs PLTR | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Databricks | Direct data/AI platform (lakehouse) | Databricks larger & faster (~$5.4B run-rate, +65%, passed Snowflake) — leads the broad TAM; PLTR still gaining in its niche | Cheaper, flexible commercial deals; pressures AIP pricing outside regulated verticals |
| Snowflake | Direct data cloud | Stable/large; PLTR gaining in AI-operational layer | Data-gravity lock-in as an alternative center of gravity |
| Hyperscaler AI (Azure/Fabric, AWS Bedrock, Google Vertex) | Platform bundling | Growing; PLTR differentiates on ontology + deployment | “Good-enough” bundled AI orchestration commoditises the middle |
| In-house builds / C3.ai / Alteryx | Substitution | PLTR winning vs build-it-yourself (US commercial +120–137%) | DIY LLM stacks if AIP’s time-to-value edge narrows |
Net effect on moat: Switching Costs held at 82 (deep in regulated/gov) and Cost Advantage kept low at 45 (premium-priced, undercut by Databricks/Snowflake) — the competitive read is already reflected in the moat sub-scores. Overall threat: MODERATE.
Palantir is priced for near-flawless execution. Every absolute multiple is at the extreme; the score is lifted off the floor only by (a) the stock sitting below every analyst target and (b) the multiple being below its own 2025 peak.
| Multiple | PLTR | Reference | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S (TTM) | ~57× | SaaS median ~7×; own 10-yr median 25.7×; peak ~119× | Extreme vs peers; ~5th–6th decile of own range |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | ~56× | EV/Rev>20x normally a ceiling; exempt (hypergrowth) | Extreme |
| Forward P/E | FY26 ~89× · FY27 ~62× | Mega-cap software 25–35× | Very expensive even 2 yrs out |
| FCF yield | ~0.9% | Attractive >5% | Priced for growth, no cash yield |
| Forward PEG | ~2.1 (reported) / ~3.9 (clean) | <1 cheap | Expensive on growth-adjusted basis |
Why 31, not lower: the sector-median and reverse-DCF references (50% weight) are near the floor; the historical-decile (below own peak) and the +47% analyst-target gap lift it to the low-30s. It remains firmly Expensive (<40) — which is what drives the HOLD.
Palantir is tethered to two reinforcing external forces: the enterprise AI-adoption wave (AIP land-grab) and US/allied defense & intelligence software demand. Both are firmly favourable.
| Horizon | Assessment | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (12–24m) | US commercial +120–137% YoY; US revenue +104%; defense wins (Army, NATO, Maven) — durable acceleration | 85 |
| Current | AIP demand strong; FY26 guide raised to +71%; rising global defense budgets (NATO rearmament driver) | 84 |
| Forward (6–12m) | Enterprise AI budgets still expanding; macro AI driver is Moderate (dominance 3) and an AI earnings-quality unwind is an armed tail risk — tempers the outlook | 78 |
Amplification role: score 82 = Strong Tailwind (≥ 65) → eligible to lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY when the economy is a Tailwind. Here the base signal is HOLD, which never amplifies — so the driver is context only and does not change the signal. Confidence 72% (−15 driver volatility / AI-cycle sensitivity).
PLTR is not a macro watchlist name, so mapped via GICS Technology to the macro report’s XLK signal: Short U (Headwind) / Medium N (Neutral) / Long O (Tailwind). Anchoring on the Medium horizon, pressure is Neutral. The 26-Jun regime is “Reacceleration lead / Stagflation rising — higher-for-longer Fed,” which is a near-term headwind for an ~80×-sales name (fast-money real-rate selling of high-multiple tech), offset by a constructive long-term XLK tailwind. Because Medium pressure is Neutral, the amplification layer does not fire — the base HOLD stands (and HOLD never amplifies regardless). Stance Neutral, conviction 52.
Source: sector-map (GICS Technology → XLK) · Macro report 2026-06-26
Timing is the classic “oversold bounce inside a downtrend.” Price collapsed from ~$133 to a $106.37 low on 24 Jun (RSI 27), then V-reclaimed to $129.30 (+22% off the low) with the MACD histogram just crossing positive on 2 Jul. But it is still below the daily SMA50 ($134.6) and SMA200 ($157.9), and the weekly trend is down.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend (weighted) | Monthly up (stale), weekly down, daily strong-down, hourly up → bearish confluence w/ oversold bounce | 44 |
| Risk-reward vs stop | Support $122.68 (~1 ATR below); stop $118; but poor location below both key MAs | 46 |
| Relative strength | Underperforming SPY & XLK on 1m/3m (still repairing from the drawdown) | 28 |
| Macro overlay | Higher-for-longer Fed; XLK short Underperform; weak NFP nudges risk-on | 36 |
| Sentiment (grades + news) | Grades consensus HOLD; 1 upgrade (Wolfe) vs 1 downgrade (HSBC) ~30–45d; rebound tone | 45 |
| Catalyst density | Calm — no event inside 14d; Q2 earnings ~10 Aug | 70 |
Dynamic macro weight = Medium (high-multiple tech is rate-sensitive). Net timing 45 — improved marginally off deep-oversold but not a confirmed trend turn. A daily close back above $134.6 (SMA50) on volume would flip the technical entry path open.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | ISM Services PMI (Jun) | High | — | 54.5 | ⚠ Medium | Growth/risk-sentiment tell for high-multiple tech |
| 2026-07-15 | US CPI (Jun) — est | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | Discount-rate sensitivity of an ~80×-sales name |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC Rate Decision — est | High | Hold | Hold | ✅ Yes | Higher-for-longer path pressures growth multiples |
| 2026-08-10 | PLTR Q2 FY26 Earnings | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | Binary re-rate event; guidance / US-commercial growth |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | 57k | 110k | −48% below | Soft labour → mild rate-cut hope; risk-on tilt for growth |
| 2026-07-02 | Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 4.2% | 4.3% | below | Mixed — resilient but softening |
| 2026-07-01 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 53.3 | 54.0 | below | Slight growth cooling |
| 2026-07-01 | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) | 1.2 | 2.5 | −52% below | Growth-deceleration signal |
No high-impact release is directly relevant to a low-macro-sensitivity software name inside the next 3 trading days, so no WAIT-for-event override applies. The macro tape is softening (weak NFP +57k, GDPNow 1.2%), which is mildly supportive of growth-multiple risk appetite, but the higher-for-longer Fed and mid-July CPI / late-July FOMC keep discount-rate risk live for an ~80×-sales stock. The dominant event is PLTR’s own Q2 report ~10 Aug.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 54 | −, hist falling | S: 66 · R: 207.5 | Breakout (stale) | 0.1x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 45 | −, below signal | S: 118.9/122.7 · R: 163.7 | Support breakdown | 0.9x |
| Daily | Strong Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 52 | −, hist turning up | S: 122.7/106.4 · R: 134.6/149.6 | Support breakdown | 1.4x |
| Hourly | Strong Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 62 | +, near cross | S: 116 · R: 132.9 | Breakout | — |
| 15-min | Weakening → | Neutral | 50 | flat | S: 128 · R: 132.9 | None | — |
| Confluence: Bearish (oversold bounce within a daily downtrend) · MTF Score 44 | |||||||
The higher timeframes disagree with the lower ones. The monthly “uptrend” is an artefact of the multi-year run (monthly SMA50 sits at ~$66); the actionable structure is a weekly/daily downtrend that broke support, punched to a $106.37 washout (daily RSI 27 on 25 Jun), and is now V-reclaiming — hourly has flipped to a strong uptrend and the daily MACD histogram crossed positive on 2 Jul. But price is still below the daily SMA50 ($134.6) and SMA200 ($157.9). Key level: a decisive daily close above $134.6 on >1.5× volume would confirm the turn; failure back below $122.7 re-opens $118.9 then $106.4.
PLTR 6-month daily close with 50-day SMA. The Jan–Jun de-rate from ~$182 to a $106 washout, then the late-June V-reclaim to $129 — still below the falling SMA50.
AIP commercial re-accelerates (US commercial holds +120%+), the multiple sustains ~55–65× forward, and PLTR retests the $190–207 highs. Requires the AI-capex cycle to stay funded and no breadth rollover.
Palantir delivers its +71% FY26 guide but the multiple grinds lower in a higher-for-longer regime — growth offsets de-rating and the stock ranges ~$120–160. Probability-weighted centre of gravity ~$150.
An AI earnings-quality / mega-cap breadth unwind compresses the multiple toward ~35–40× sales while Databricks/Snowflake commoditise AIP pricing in commercial deals and US-commercial growth decelerates — $95–110. This is the competitive-risk downside path.
Forecast: Fundamental: Unlikely near-term — would need either a fall below ~$120 or a step-up in fair value from a Q2 beat; the multiple, not the business, is the gate. Technical: Moderate, ~1–3 weeks — a daily close above the $134.6 SMA50 on >1.5× volume opens the breakout branch (price ~4% away and the histogram is turning up); a pullback that tests $118.9–122.7 and holds with a higher low would open the pullback branch instead. Catalyst: catalyst-dependent on the ~10 Aug Q2 print. Net: 0/3 groups met → Wait — good business, no entry edge at $129.
Forecast: No exit trigger is live — action Hold. Stop ($118) is ~9% below spot and unlikely in 4–6 weeks absent an earnings miss or a broad AI-multiple unwind; the $190 profit-trim is ~47% away. The most probable risk trigger is the ~10 Aug Q2 print.
What you’re risking: buying above your fair value (~$120), below the SMA50 in a daily downtrend, with no entry group met — you’d be paying ~80× sales into a higher-for-longer tape and an armed AI earnings-quality tail risk. FCF yield is only ~0.9%, so you collect almost nothing while you wait. What you’re gaining: immediate exposure to the best Rule-of-40 business in software with a fortress balance sheet and a Strong-Tailwind AI/defense driver, plus free optionality on the US-commercial land-grab. Read: the business deserves owning, but at $129 the price does the work against you — waiting for a <$120 pullback or a confirmed reclaim of $134.6 materially improves the deal.
What you’re giving up: the base-case path to ~$150 and the bull path to ~$200, plus the AIP/defense optionality — and you’d be selling below every analyst target ($138–230). What you’re protecting: capital against the multiple-compression bear case to ~$100 if the AI/breadth unwind hits. Read: no exit rule is triggered right now (no stop, no thesis break, not at the profit target) — for a holder this is a hold/accumulate-on-weakness zone, not a sell.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
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"ticker": "PLTR",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:PLTR",
"isin": "US69608A1088",
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"date": "2026-07-02",
"version": "v6",
"company": "Palantir Technologies Inc.",
"section": "Technology (Contrarian)",
"lifecycle_stage": "High-Growth (Stage 2-3)",
"sector": "Technology",
"sub_industry": "Software - Infrastructure",
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"quality_score": 85,
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},
"valuation_detail": {
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"ev_rev_ttm": 56,
"fwd_pe_2026": 89,
"fwd_pe_2027": 62,
"pe_ttm": 135,
"fcf_yield": 0.009,
"implied_growth_rate": "~70% CAGR priced (matches most-bullish Street path)",
"consensus_growth_rate_fy26": 0.71,
"historical_valuation_decile": 6
},
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 14.5,
"clean_pe": 169,
"clean_peg": 3.9,
"reported_pe": 135,
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"net_margin_ttm": 0.437,
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"ttm_revenue": 5224174000,
"ttm_revenue_growth_yoy": 0.677,
"fy26_rev_growth_guide": 0.71,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 44,
"risk_reward_score": 46,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -9.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -7.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15,
"daily_rsi": 52,
"macd_hist_cross": "positive 2026-07-02"
},
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 52,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-26",
"xlk_signal": {
"s": "U",
"m": "N",
"l": "O"
},
"driver_name": "Commercial-AI (AIP) adoption + US/allied government & defense software demand",
"driver_label": "Strong Tailwind",
"driver_historical": 85,
"driver_current": 84,
"driver_forward": 78,
"confidence": {
"quality": 82,
"valuation": 72,
"timing": 66,
"driver": 72,
"econ": 66,
"overall": 66
},
"overall_confidence": 66,
"analyst_consensus_target": 190,
"analyst_target_high": 230,
"analyst_target_low": 138,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 47,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Hold",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 42,
"analyst_coverage_count": 26,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 1,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"fmp_rating": "B+",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"fair_value_est": 120,
"stop_loss": 118,
"target_price": 150,
"levels": {
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"weekly_support_zone": [
118.93,
122.68
],
"stop": 118.0,
"sma50": 134.58,
"sma200": 157.9,
"resistance": [
134.6,
149.64,
157.9
],
"wk52_high": 207.52,
"wk52_low": 106.37,
"daily_atr": 6.76
},
"scenario_base_target": 150,
"scenario_bull_target": 200,
"scenario_bear_target": 100,
"scenario_probabilities": {
"bull": 0.25,
"base": 0.5,
"bear": 0.25
},
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"valuation_ceiling: P/S ~57x >2x 10-yr median but below own 2025 peak; price<all targets; hypergrowth exempts EV/Rev>20x -> caution not triggered"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"do_not_buy_evaluation": {
"leverage_rising_rates": "clear (net cash, no debt)",
"valuation_historical_extreme": "clear (P/S below own 5-yr peak AND growth accelerating: FY26 +71% > FY25 +56%)",
"negative_eps_revisions": "clear (estimates rising)",
"insider_selling_spike": "clear (~$140M/3mo but 10b5-1/RSU-tax, not discretionary cluster)",
"structural_threat": "clear"
},
"amplification": "none (all horizons HOLD; HOLD never amplifies. Driver Strong Tailwind 82 and econ Neutral@medium are context only)",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-16",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-16",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (no impactful event inside window; Q2 FY26 earnings ~10 Aug is beyond 14d)",
"delta_vs_prior": "Signals unchanged HOLD/HOLD/HOLD. Intra-period washout to $106.37 (-20%) then V-reclaim to $129.30 (net -3% vs prior $133.25). Valuation 25->31 (framework: cheaper price + +47% analyst-target gap), Timing 44->45 (deep-oversold bounce), Quality 86->85, Driver 83->82. Grades consensus softened Buy->Hold. Gate caution unchanged; no DNB. Entry Wait 0/3 unchanged; Exit Hold. Next update 2026-06-30 -> 2026-07-16.",
"prior_report": {
"date": "2026-06-16",
"price": 133.25,
"signals": "HOLD/HOLD/HOLD",
"quality": 86,
"valuation": 25,
"timing": 44,
"driver": 83
}
}