DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Three-Horizon Signal — base signal from Quality · Valuation · Timing, then amplified by Drivers + Economy
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1-3 mo) |
HOLD |
48 |
62% |
Great business, wrong price; weak technicals near 52-wk low + tech a near-term macro headwind |
| Medium-term (6-12 mo) |
HOLD |
52 |
62% |
Elite fundamentals fully offset by an extreme multiple — wait for a valuation entry |
| Long-term (3-5 yr) |
HOLD |
61 |
65% |
Quality dominates and compels accumulation — but only on a materially lower entry price |
Why HOLD at every horizon: Quality is High (86) and Valuation is Expensive (25) — the Decision Matrix maps High Quality + Expensive Valuation to HOLD ("great business, wrong price") regardless of timing, and HOLD never amplifies. The strong AIP/defense driver (83) and tech's long-run Outperform are context pillars: they intensify a buy or a sell, but cannot manufacture a BUY out of a HOLD. No hard gate and no Do-Not-Buy trigger fired — the stock has de-rated ~47% from its March-2025 P/S peak and revenue is still accelerating, so the "valuation at historical extreme" trigger fails its growth-deceleration test. The valuation is nonetheless the single dominant risk and is flagged as a caution (§2).
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores, each 0-100 with its own confidence. The base BUY/HOLD/SELL comes from the three fundamental pillars (Quality · Valuation · Timing) via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers · Economic Alignment) can only amplify a buy or a sell, never a hold.
Business Quality
86
Fortress hypergrowth: +68% rev, 84% gross / 44% net margin, net cash
Confidence: 82%
Valuation Attractiveness
25
Extreme: ~65x diluted P/S, <1% FCF yield, reverse-DCF prices the bull case
Confidence: 70%
Entry/Exit Timing
44
Weekly/daily downtrend into 52-wk low; monthly still up
Confidence: 66%
Underlying Drivers
83
Commercial-AI (AIP) + US/allied defense software — Strong Tailwind
Confidence: 72% · STRONG-eligible (but only amplifies a BUY)
Economic Alignment
55
Contrarian · Headwind near-term, Tailwind long
Confidence: 70% · Macro report 2026-06-13
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks. Any triggered gate caps the signal at HOLD; any Do-Not-Buy trigger forces a hard DO NOT BUY regardless of the composite score. For PLTR the valuation is the central question — checked honestly below.
Valuation verdict (the central question): PLTR trades at one of the richest large-cap multiples in the market — ~65x diluted price/sales and a <1% FCF yield. But the two mechanical valuation overrides both fail their tests, and we do not soften them: (1) the Valuation-Ceiling gate needs price > the high target ($133 vs $230 — no), or EV/Rev > 20x for a non-hypergrowth name (PLTR grows ~70% — exempt), or the multiple in the top 5% of its own 5-yr range (current P/S ~63x sits ~47% below the March-2025 peak of ~119x — no). (2) The "valuation at historical extreme" Do-Not-Buy requires the multiple at a 5-yr extreme AND forward growth ≤ trailing — but FY26 revenue (+72% est.) is accelerating over FY25 (+56%), so the growth-deceleration condition fails outright. Net: no gate fires, no Do-Not-Buy fires — but the multiple is ~2.5x its 10-yr median (25.7x) and crushes the Valuation pillar to 25, which is what holds the signal at HOLD. It is logged as a standing caution.
✅Financial Distress
Net cash ~$8B; debt/equity 0.03; current ratio 6.9. No distress.
✅Earnings Event Risk
Next report Q2 FY26, ~early Aug — >14 days out. Clear.
⚠Valuation Ceiling
Does not mechanically trigger (price<high target; hypergrowth exemption; ~47% below own P/S peak) — but ~2.5x the 10-yr median. Caution.
✅Dilution / Accounting
SBC ~14% of revenue TTM (Q1'26 only 12.3%) — well below the 25% gate; diluted share count +~3-4%/yr. Clear.
✅Regulatory / Binary Event
No pending FDA/antitrust/binary ruling. Clear.
✅Severe Driver Collapse
Driver score 83 (Strong Tailwind) — nowhere near the ≤15 floor. Clear.
Do-Not-Buy triggers — all clear: Leverage+rising-rates (no debt) · Valuation-at-extreme (growth accelerating, fails the test) · Persistent negative EPS revisions (estimates rising, not falling) · Insider-selling spike (no abnormal cluster identified) · Structural business-model threat (none). Hard-gate state: CAUTION.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
Is this a good business, independent of price? Scored on high-growth software metrics — revenue growth, Rule of 40, gross/FCF margin, SBC, balance sheet, moat and ROIC. PLTR is close to a best-in-class software business.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
Elite on every operating axis: accelerating ~68% revenue growth, 84% gross / 44% net / 51% FCF margin, a Rule of 40 near 119, a fortress net-cash balance sheet and now-disciplined SBC (~14% of revenue). The only knocks are moderate network effects and the inherent uncertainty of a business still early in its margin/scale curve.
| Sub-Signal | Value (TTM / latest) | Read | Score |
|---|
| Revenue trajectory | TTM $5.22B, +67.7% YoY; quarterly YoY accelerating 62.8% → 70.0% → 84.7% (Q3'25→Q1'26) | Elite for software; acceleration is rare at this scale | 96 |
| Profitability vs peers | Gross 84.1% · EBIT 44.5% · Net 43.7% | Top-decile SaaS margins, expanding every quarter | 93 |
| Cash generation | FCF margin ~51%; FCF/OCF 0.99 (asset-light, capex/sh $0.01) | Cash-rich growth — the gold standard | 95 |
| Balance-sheet health | ~$8B cash, net cash; D/E 0.03; current ratio 6.9 | Fortress — zero solvency risk | 96 |
| SBC discipline | SBC ~14% of rev TTM ($730M); Q1'26 12.3% | Down sharply from ~22%+ in 2023-24 — no longer a red flag | 74 |
Industry Benchmark — Rule of 40: Revenue growth +68% + FCF margin +51% = ~119. Threshold: >60 is "exceptional". EXCEPTIONAL Benchmark score: 100/100. Context: the median SaaS peer scores ~32; PLTR is one of a handful of public software names above 100. Even on EBITDA margin (45%) the score is ~113.
Competitive Moat
Pricing Power
80
84% gross margin; AIP/Foundry command premium
Network Effects
55
Ontology/data compounding, not a classic two-sided network
Switching Costs
85
Deep enterprise/gov integration; ontology lock-in
Cost Advantage
55
Scale benefits, but R&D-intensive delivery
Intangibles
80
Security clearances (IL5/6), brand, founder control
Moat average = 71 — a wide, durable moat anchored in switching costs and government trust, partially offset by the absence of a true network effect.
ROIC & Capital Allocation
ROIC is very high — net income of ~$2.28B TTM on a small, asset-light invested-capital base, returns far above any reasonable WACC. Capital allocation is conservative (no debt, no buyback drag, no dilutive M&A), and founder control (Karp/Thiel Class-F) plus declining SBC aligns management with long-term value. FMP financial-health rating: B+ (3/5) — ROE 5/5, ROA 5/5, D/E 4/5 confirm operating excellence, while P/E 1/5 and P/B 1/5 confirm the valuation problem. Net: a great business the model independently rates near the top of its software cohort.
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Is the stock cheap or expensive for what you get? Benchmarked against sector medians, the stock's own history, growth, a reverse-DCF implied-growth lens, the universal FCF-yield anchor, and analyst consensus. This is the pillar that defines the PLTR debate.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Expensive on every absolute and reverse-DCF lens — ~65x diluted sales, ~91x forward earnings, <1% FCF yield, and a price that already embeds the heroic 73% five-year revenue CAGR analysts model. The only support is the sell-side: at $133 the stock sits ~30% below the $189 consensus target. Net: deeply Expensive, lifted off the floor only by analyst price targets.
| Reference (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|
| Sector / peer median (25%) | EV/Rev ~58-65x vs hypergrowth-SaaS norm ~12-15x — roughly 4-5x the peer multiple | 4 |
| Own historical decile (20%) | P/S ~63x: below the ~119x March-2025 peak but ~2.5x the 10-yr median (25.7x). Roughly 7th-8th decile of its own 5-yr range — elevated, not record | 35 |
| Growth-adjusted (15%) | EV/Rev 58x ÷ ~68% growth = 0.85; forward 39x ÷ ~72% = 0.54. Forward PEG ~3.3. Rich even adjusting for growth | 28 |
| Reverse-DCF / implied growth (25%) | See box below — price prices the bull case as the base case | 12 |
| Analyst target (10%) | $133 vs consensus $189 (median $190) — ~30% below; range $138-$230 | 88 |
| Grades consensus (5%) | 0 Strong-Buy · 11 Buy · 11 Hold · 4 Sell (Buy, but 58% holds+sells) | 48 |
Reverse-DCF / implied growth (the honest number): Enterprise value is ~$304B (Class A) to ~$340B (diluted) against TTM free cash flow of ~$2.7B — a starting FCF yield of ~0.9%. Discounting at a 10% WACC with a 3% terminal, today's price implies free cash flow must compound at roughly 30% a year for a full decade (FCF ~$2.7B → ~$37B by 2035) just to justify the current valuation. For reference, the 15-analyst consensus already models $68.8B of revenue by 2030 — a ~73% five-year CAGR — among the most aggressive large-cap growth paths on record. Implied growth ≈ consensus growth, and both sit at the edge of what software businesses have ever achieved. The market is pricing the bull case as the base case, leaving essentially no margin of safety for even a single-quarter stumble.
| Multiple | Value | Anchor |
|---|
| Price / Sales (TTM) | ~58x Class A · ~65x diluted | Diluted count (2.571B sh) is the honest lens — adds ~7x |
| EV / Revenue (TTM) | ~58x | vs hypergrowth-SaaS ~12-15x |
| Forward P/E (FY26E EPS $1.46) | ~91x | FY27E ~64x · FY28E ~44x |
| P/E (TTM) | ~140x (basic) / ~150x (diluted) | EPS TTM ~$0.89 diluted |
| FCF yield (FCF/EV) | ~0.9% | <1% = "very expensive / future-dependent" |
| P/B | ~38x | Asset-light; book is not the right anchor |
Embedded Optionality / Free Upside: At today's price the buyer also owns several under-monetised call options the model does not pay up for: (1) US commercial scale-out — AIP bootcamps converting to seven-figure enterprise contracts, still early in penetration; (2) International commercial & allied-government — Europe/Asia commercial is materially under-penetrated and NATO-rearmament defense-software demand is a live tailwind; (3) ~$8B net cash for buybacks/M&A; (4) new product lines (Warp Speed manufacturing/defense-industrial software) pre-monetisation. However — these are the reason to keep watching, not a reason the stock is cheap. The in-production business is already richly priced; the optionality cushions the long-run thesis but does not move the pillar out of Expensive. Net framing: the priced-in core demands flawless execution; the free upside is real but you are paying a premium price for the base case before counting it.
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to. A context pillar: a tailwind ≥65 can lift a BUY to STRONG BUY (with a supportive economy); it does not change the fundamental scores and cannot rescue a HOLD.
| Horizon (weight) | Assessment | Score |
|---|
| Historical (25%) | AIP commercial adoption inflected sharply through 2024-26; US commercial revenue compounding >70%; government/defense bookings strong. Clear uptrend. | 85 |
| Current (50%) | Demand is strong now — AIP pipeline conversion, record US commercial growth, elevated defense budgets (NATO rearmament, US software-defined defense). Very favourable. | 85 |
| Forward (25%) | AI-capex cycle and defense budgets keep expanding; the only risk is an eventual normalisation of enterprise AI spend. Still favourable. | 78 |
Driver score = 85·0.25 + 85·0.50 + 78·0.25 = 83 → Strong Tailwind. Amplification role: eligible to lift a base BUY → STRONG BUY only when the economy is also a Tailwind. Here the base signal is HOLD at every horizon, so the driver does not amplify — it raises conviction in the long-run thesis and underpins the "accumulate on weakness" stance, but cannot turn a HOLD into a buy. Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained deceleration of revenue growth below ~30% with softening US-commercial bookings.
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
Whether the latest macro report is a tailwind or headwind, expressed as a Tailwind/Neutral/Headwind pressure plus a Trend-Following or Contrarian stance with 0-100 conviction. Its pressure is the second amplifier.
Macro report 2026-06-13 — Dominant regime: Stagflation (oil shock + hawkish Fed). Scenario weights: Stagflation 44 · Deflationary Bust 26 · Soft Landing 18 · Reacceleration 12. Technology (XLK) sector signal: Short Underperform · Medium Underperform · Long Outperform; QQQ similarly SU/U/O. The driving logic: a hawkish Fed (FOMC 6/17, "hawkish hold", easing language removed) and sticky inflation lift real rates, which compress long-duration / high-multiple growth equities near-term — exactly the cohort a ~65x-sales name sits in. Longer-term, the AI & Productivity driver (dominance 3) turns tech back to Outperform.
Stance: Contrarian · Conviction 55. The Stock-Finder placed PLTR under "Technology (Contrarian)" — owning a richly-valued growth leader against the prevailing near-term macro headwind. Pressure by horizon: Headwind (Short), Headwind (Medium), Tailwind/Neutral (Long). Amplification role: Economic Alignment's pressure is the second amplifier, but it can only intensify a BUY (with a Tailwind) or a SELL (with a Headwind). With a HOLD base at every horizon, no amplification occurs. The near-term headwind nonetheless reinforces patience: the macro is working against the multiple precisely while the technicals are weak.
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
Is now a good time to enter or exit? Multi-timeframe trend, risk-reward vs support, relative strength, a low macro overlay (defensive software), sentiment from grade actions and news, and the catalyst calendar.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Mixed and leaning weak: the monthly trend is still up, but the tradeable weekly and daily charts are in downtrends pressing the 52-week low ($122.68), the stock is well below its 50- and 200-day averages, and sentiment carries a visible bear (Michael Burry reiterated short). Not a clean entry — a knife still falling toward support.
| Component (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | Monthly uptrend (resistance breakout) vs weekly + daily downtrends (support breakdown), price below SMA50/200. Higher-TF still up, tradeable TFs down. | 43 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | Support cluster $118.9-$128.8 (~4-11% below); stop below $118 ≈ 2.4 ATR; far resistance $150-164; upside to $189 target. Catching a downtrend caps the score. | 45 |
| Macro overlay (10%, low-sensitivity sector) | Hawkish Fed + stagflation = headwind for high-multiple growth near-term. | 40 |
| Sentiment (20%) | Burry reiterated short (head-and-shoulders); "strong quarter, stock still slid"; grades Buy but 4 sells. Net cautious. | 40 |
| Catalysts (20%) | No company catalyst within 30 days (earnings ~early Aug); macro events (FOMC 6/17, Core PCE 6/25) only. Relatively calm. | 65 |
Relative strength: the stock is down ~36% from its 52-wk high while the tape de-rated it — a laggard, near the low end of its 52-week range (~5th-10th percentile). 52-week position is "beaten down," which can be value or a falling knife; with the weekly/daily trend still down, treat near-term rallies as suspect until the stock reclaims its 20- and 50-day averages on volume.
8
Economic Event Risk
Macro releases that matter for a high-multiple software name. Software is low macro-sensitivity, but rate-setting events move growth-stock valuations, so the Fed path is the relevant watch.
| Date | Event | Impact | Consensus / Forecast | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC (Warsh) rate decision | High | Hold 3.75%; hawkish, easing language removed, ~25% hike flagged | ✅ | Rates set the discount rate on long-duration growth — directly drives PLTR's multiple |
| 2026-06-17 | US Retail Sales (May) | Medium | +0.5% (Boris: +0.2% softer) | ⚠ | Demand-cycle read for enterprise AI budgets |
| 2026-06-25 | Core PCE (May) | High | +0.2% (Boris: +0.3% sticky) | ✅ | Sticky inflation keeps the Fed hawkish → continued multiple pressure |
| ~Aug 4 (est.) | PLTR Q2 FY26 earnings | Critical | Guidance & US-commercial growth in focus | ✅ | The real re-rating event — >14 days out, so no earnings gate today |
Two high-impact macro events inside 10 days (FOMC 6/17, Core PCE 6/25), both pointing the same way — a hawkish Fed and sticky inflation that pressure high-multiple growth. This reinforces patience near-term but is not a company-specific risk. The binary that matters is Q2 earnings in early August; the next scheduled re-rate is set ahead of it.
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI, MACD and breakout status from monthly down to 15-minute, plus a confluence read. Note: intraday bars were thin/after-hours (volume_ratio 0.03-0.05), so the 15-min/hourly signals are noise — weight the monthly/weekly/daily.
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | MACD | Key S / R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | 55.2 | +, hist rolling | S $122.7 · R $207.5 | Resistance breakout | 0.3x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | 44.8 | −, falling | S $118.9 · R $163.7 | Support breakdown | 0.3x |
| Daily | Strong downtrend ↓ | 46.7 | −, falling | S $122.7 · R $149.6 | Support breakdown | 1.1x |
| Hourly | Recovering → | 50.6 | ~flat | S $129.6 · R $134.0 | (thin/after-hours) | 0.03x |
| 15-min | Up (noise) | 54.4 | ~flat | S $132.4 · R $134.3 | (thin/after-hours) | 0.05x |
| Computed confluence: MTF score ~43 — Mixed / leaning bearish on the tradeable timeframes. (The tool's headline "bullish" is driven by the monthly breakout and dead intraday volume; on the weekly/daily charts that institutions trade, the trend is down into the 52-week low.) |
Pattern read: Higher-TF still up, intermediate-TF rolling over — the monthly uptrend is intact but the weekly and daily have broken support and are pressing the $122.68 floor. That is a potential-trend-change configuration, not a buy-the-dip-in-an-uptrend setup yet. The level that decides it is the weekly $118.9-$122.7 support zone: hold it and base, and the long-run uptrend survives; lose it on volume and the next leg lower opens. Daily ATR ~$6.6 (≈5% of price) means wide swings — size and stops must respect that.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
Illustrative 6-month path with the key reference levels — the de-rating from ~$190 toward the 52-week low, the moving averages overhead, support, and the analyst median target above. Visual companion to the MTF table.
Chart is an illustrative reconstruction of the 6-month path from approximate daily closes and verified reference levels (SMA50 $139.36, SMA200 $160.31, support $122.68, analyst median target $190); intended as a visual aid, not a tick-accurate series.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month paths with explicit triggers and probability weights. The valuation makes the distribution unusually wide — the same fundamentals support both a re-rate back to the highs and a multiple-compression air-pocket.
Bull · ~25% · to $190-207 (+43-56%)
Trigger: macro turns risk-on (Fed pivots dovish), Q2/Q3 sustain >65% growth with raised guides, US-commercial re-accelerates. The ~65x multiple holds and the stock retraces to the consensus median ($190) and toward the 52-wk high ($207). This is the scenario the price already partly assumes.
Base · ~50% · $120-160 (range-bound)
Trigger: execution stays excellent but the multiple slowly de-rates as growth normalises and rates stay high. The stock chops between the $118-123 support and the $150-164 resistance — fundamentals grow into a still-rich, gradually-compressing multiple. Net flat-to-modestly-up.
Bear · ~25% · to $100-110 (−17-25%)
Trigger: stagflation/hawkish-Fed risk-off compresses long-duration growth, any growth wobble or guide trim, weekly $118 support breaks. Multiple compresses toward ~30-35x EV/Rev and the Burry head-and-shoulders target plays out. No balance-sheet risk — purely a valuation-reset drawdown.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Mechanical conditions that convert the scores into an action plan. Entry criteria met: 0/5. Exit criteria live: 0/3 (no holder exit is currently triggered).
Entry Rules — 0 / 5 met
1 · Valuation reset (not met): EV/Rev compresses below ~40x or price < ~$115 (a meaningful de-rate toward the support zone) — disciplined entry for a name this richly priced.
2 · Technical reclaim (not met): daily close above the 30-day SMA (~$139) on >1.5x volume, RSI 35-65, MACD histogram positive ≥2 days.
3 · Trend repair (not met): weekly trend flips up / price reclaims SMA50 ($139.4) and holds.
4 · Support hold (not met): a tested bounce off $118.9-$122.7 with a higher low and rising volume (basing, not breaking).
5 · Catalyst confirmation (not met): post-earnings move >+5% with guidance raised on >2x volume.
Exit Rules (for an existing holder) — 0 / 3 live
1 · Stop-loss: two consecutive daily closes below $118 (weekly support / below the 52-wk low).
2 · Thesis invalidation: revenue growth decelerates below ~30% YoY and full-year guidance is cut and US-commercial bookings soften.
3 · Profit target: trim into $190 (median target) with RSI >70 unless Quality has improved enough to justify the new multiple.
Imagine you act at the current price $133.25 · as of Jun 16, 2026
What if you bought now?
You'd be risking ~$15 / −11% to the hard stop to gain ~$17 / +12% to the base ceiling (and ~$57 / +43% to the median target).
- Risking: stop $118 (−11%); bear case $100-110 (−17 to −25%); plus — entry rules NOT met: buying into a weekly/daily downtrend, above the <$115 valuation-reset zone, against a hawkish-Fed tech headwind.
- Gaining: base ceiling $150-160 (+12-20%) · bull $190-207 (+43-56%); plus the free embedded optionality (US/international commercial, ~$8B cash) you own at this price.
- Net: risk-reward to the base ceiling ≈ 1:1; to the target ≈ 1:3.8 — but only if the knife stops. Waiting for the $118-123 support to hold (or a SMA50 reclaim) is the higher-probability entry.
What if you sold now?
You'd be giving up +12-56% of base/bull upside and a Strong-Tailwind driver to protect against a ~17-25% valuation-reset drawdown.
- Giving up: base/bull upside to $150-207; the AIP/defense tailwind and long-run XLK-Outperform; selling a best-in-class business below the sell-side's $189 fair value.
- Protecting: capital if the bear case ($100-110) plays out on a support break + rate shock. Exit rules currently triggered? None.
- Net: no mechanical reason to sell a fortress business here; this is a HOLD / wait-for-a-better-entry zone, not an exit.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative framework only — no allocation was specified, so no position size is prescribed. The numbers translate conviction and volatility into risk-per-share math.
PLTR is a high-beta (1.52), high-ATR (~5% daily) name with a binary valuation debate — it behaves like a satellite/speculative position, not a core anchor, until it either de-rates or proves out the growth path. Risk-per-share to the $118 stop from $133.25 is ~$15 (~11%), so a fixed dollar-risk budget implies a deliberately small share count. With the signal at HOLD across all horizons and entry criteria 0/5, the framework's stance is no new initiation here; an existing holder with conviction can hold through the range, sized so a bear-case 20%+ drawdown is tolerable. Add only on the §12 entry triggers (a held support base or a meaningful valuation reset), scaling in rather than chasing.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, key level, signal and schedule — saved alongside the HTML for the next run.
{
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:PLTR", "isin": "US69608A1088", "storage": "PLTR",
"company": "Palantir Technologies Inc.", "country_table": "US",
"as_of": "2026-06-16", "price": 133.25, "market_cap_classA": 305951327500, "market_cap_diluted_est": 342600000000,
"shares_classA": 2296071334, "shares_diluted": 2570924000,
"scores": { "quality": 86, "valuation": 25, "timing": 44, "driver": 83, "econ_alignment_conviction": 55 },
"confidence": { "quality": 82, "valuation": 70, "timing": 66, "driver": 72, "econ": 70, "overall": 65 },
"signals": { "short": "HOLD", "medium": "HOLD", "long": "HOLD" },
"composite": { "short": 48, "medium": 52, "long": 61 },
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates": { "financial_distress": "clear", "earnings_event": "clear", "valuation_ceiling": "caution",
"dilution_accounting": "clear", "binary_event": "clear", "severe_driver_collapse": "clear" },
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"gates_caution": ["valuation_ceiling: P/S ~63x = ~2.5x 10-yr median, but ~47% below own peak and growth accelerating -> no hard trigger"],
"valuation_facts": { "ps_classA": 58.6, "ps_diluted": 65.5, "ev_rev": 58.2, "fwd_pe_2026": 91.3,
"pe_ttm": 139.8, "fcf_yield": 0.009, "ps_10yr_median": 25.7, "ps_peak_2025": 119.5,
"rule_of_40": 119, "sbc_pct_rev_ttm": 0.14 },
"driver": { "name": "Commercial-AI (AIP) + US/allied defense software", "score": 83, "label": "Strong Tailwind" },
"econ_alignment": { "stance": "Contrarian", "pressure_short": "Headwind", "pressure_medium": "Headwind",
"pressure_long": "Tailwind", "macro_report": "2026-06-13", "regime": "Stagflation",
"xlk": {"s":"U","m":"U","l":"O"} },
"levels": { "price": 133.25, "support": 122.68, "weekly_support_zone": [118.93, 122.68],
"stop": 118.0, "sma50": 139.36, "sma200": 160.31,
"resistance": [149.64, 156.28, 163.70], "target_median": 190, "target_high": 230, "wk52_high": 207.52 },
"scenarios": { "bull": {"p":0.25,"px":"190-207"}, "base": {"p":0.50,"px":"120-160"}, "bear": {"p":0.25,"px":"100-110"} },
"entry_criteria_met": 0, "entry_criteria_total": 5, "exit_criteria_met": 0, "exit_criteria_total": 3,
"analysis_status": "on-going", "finder_ticker": "PLTR", "finder_exchange": "🇺🇸 NASDAQ",
"section": "Technology (Contrarian)",
"last_updated": "2026-06-16", "next_update_date": "2026-06-30", "next_check_date": "2026-06-30",
"next_update_basis": "Monitor whether the $118.9-$122.7 weekly support holds (base vs breakdown) and read post-FOMC(6/17)/Core-PCE(6/25) rate path for high-multiple tech; full re-rate at Q2 FY26 earnings (~early Aug 2026)."
}
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Full audit trail of every data source, with OK/partial indicators and the confidence haircuts applied.
Data Source Status
✓
get_company_profile — sector, mkt cap, ISIN, range
✓
get_stock_snapshot — $133.25, intraday
✓
get_financial_ratios — margins, multiples, FCF
✓
get_income_statement (8q) — revenue/earnings trajectory
✓
get_ticker_details (Polygon) — share count verification
✓
get_price_target_consensus — $138/$190/$230
✓
get_grades_consensus — 0/11/11/4/0
✓
get_ratings_snapshot — B+ (3/5)
✓
get_analyst_estimates — FY26-FY30 revenue/EPS
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get_multi_timeframe_analysis — 5 TFs
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get_stock_news — sentiment (Burry short, slide)
✓
Macro report 2026-06-13 — XLK U/U/O, Stagflation
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Web search — SBC %, historical P/S range (grounded externally)
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Intraday MTF bars — thin/after-hours (vol 0.03-0.05); hourly/15-min treated as noise
Impact on scores: Core fundamentals, valuation, analyst data and the macro overlay are all verified from primary tools — high confidence. Two items were grounded by web search rather than a single MCP field: SBC (~14% of revenue) and the historical P/S range (peak ~119x, median ~25.7x) — both load-bearing for the gate calls, hence verified before scoring. Timing confidence is held at 66% because the intraday timeframes carried near-zero volume and were down-weighted to the monthly/weekly/daily. Overall confidence = min across pillars = ~65%.
Methodology: v6 five-pillar framework. Base BUY/HOLD/SELL from Quality·Valuation·Timing via the Decision Matrix; amplification by Underlying Drivers + Economic Alignment (cannot amplify a HOLD); then Hard Gates and Do-Not-Buy triggers. High-growth-software metric profile (revenue growth, Rule of 40, gross/FCF margin, SBC). Reverse-DCF run explicitly. Share count verified against Polygon; diluted lens used for the headline P/S. All figures USD via Polygon/FMP as of 2026-06-16.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
DonatienInvestment · Stock Signal v6 · NASDAQ:PLTR · Jun 16, 2026 · Not financial advice