Pan American Silver is one of the world's largest primary silver miners, with a diversified portfolio of silver and gold mines across the Americas (Mexico, Peru, and others) plus meaningful growth optionality — most notably the permitting path at the large, idled Escobal silver mine in Guatemala. As a miner (unlike streamer Wheaton) it carries operating and jurisdiction risk and higher price beta, but that beta cuts both ways: it is a leveraged, statistically-cheap way to own a silver recovery. The stock has fallen hard with the silver complex, but a single-digit forward multiple, a ~20% ROE and a large upside-to-target keep the medium/long case intact.
Lifecycle & sector: Mature, cyclical miner (Materials — silver/gold). Scored on asset base, cost position, balance sheet and growth optionality, with a miner's higher operating risk than a streamer.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Asset base | Diversified silver + gold across the Americas; large reserve base | 78 |
| Growth optionality | Escobal (large idled silver mine) permitting path — real upside | 76 |
| Profitability | Operating margin ~48%, ROE ~20% — strong at current prices | 70 |
| Balance sheet | Net cash; manageable debt — resilient | 76 |
| Rival | Type | PAAS's position |
|---|---|---|
| First Majestic (AG) | Primary silver | Ahead on scale/diversification — PAAS larger, lower-beta than AG |
| Hecla (HL) | US silver | Comparable — PAAS more diversified geographically |
| Fresnillo | Mexican silver major | Comparable — both large; PAAS has Escobal optionality |
Warranted-multiple anchor. A quality silver miner warrants ~12–15x mid-cycle. Actual forward ~8x → ~0.6x warranted (Attractive); trailing ~14x → ~1.0x (Fair). Earnings are rising fast (higher metal prices, +132% earnings growth), so the forward multiple is the honest anchor — and single-digit forward earnings for a top-tier silver producer is cheap. Attractive valuation is what keeps the long STRONG BUY alive through the tape overlay.
| Lens | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Warranted-multiple anchor (40%) | Fwd ~8x ÷ warranted ~13x → ~0.6x (Attractive) | 66 |
| P/B vs ROE | P/B ~2.5 on ~20% ROE — reasonable | 58 |
| FCF | ~US$1.3B FCF — a strong yield at this cap | 66 |
| Analyst target | Mean C$97 vs C$62 — ~56% upside, but only 2 analysts (thin) | 60 |
Primary driver: silver (with gold by-product) — a structural bull on monetary + industrial (solar/electrification) demand, but scored on the price trend: silver is in a live, sharp downtrend (harder than gold), so the near-term driver is capped and the metal bear is a live risk. Miner beta amplifies both directions.
| Horizon | Read | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Short | Silver in a live breakdown (−20%+ off peak); tape caps hard | ~40 Capped |
| Medium | Consolidation; corrected macro metals Neutral | ~58 Neutral |
| Long | Monetary + solar/industrial silver demand; corrected macro Overweight | ~72 Tailwind |
Amplification: the live downtrend removes short/medium amplification (short HOLD; medium BUY, not STRONG). Long is STRONG BUY — structural driver + Attractive valuation both hold. Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained silver breakdown, or an Escobal/LatAm jurisdiction setback.
The corrected macro read has precious metals short Underweight / medium Neutral / long Overweight — confirmed by the tape (silver −20%+, USD firmer). That maps to the horizon signals: a short-term headwind capping amplification, resolving to a long tailwind. Net supportive long, capped short.
Source: macro sector-map (Materials/metals — corrected) · Macro report 2026-07-03
Risk-reward: PAAS has been hit hard by the silver sell-off — the US listing shows a daily support breakdown, RSI ~35, hourly strong downtrend. As a higher-beta miner it falls faster than a streamer. RSI near oversold hints at a bounce, but there's no reversal yet. Poor short-term entry; a genuine opportunity for medium/long accumulation given the cheap valuation.
| Signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Trend structure | Daily downtrend + breakdown; hourly strong downtrend | 38 |
| Position in range | ~35% below the C$95 52-wk high; lower range | 50 |
| Momentum | Daily RSI ~35 — near oversold, no turn yet | 46 |
| Valuation support | Attractive (~8x fwd) — a real floor | 60 |
Wait for a daily stabilisation / higher low before a short-term entry; accumulate on weakness for medium/long.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Bullish | ~54 | + | S: 40 R: 70 | Breakout | 0.2x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Bearish | ~42 | − | S: 51 R: 61 | None | 0.6x |
| Daily | Downtrend | Bearish | ~35 | − | S: 44 R: 54 | Breakdown | 1.3x |
| Confluence: Long-term uptrend, near-term breakdown · MTF Score 44 | |||||||
The monthly uptrend (structural silver bull) holds, but the weekly/daily have broken down with silver — RSI ~35, a support breakdown. The split is the signal: HOLD the short (miner beta into a live downtrend), BUY/STRONG BUY the medium/long (a scaled silver miner at ~8x forward).
PAAS.TO weekly close (Yahoo, CAD), Nov 2025–Jul 2026. Ran to C$95 then fell ~35% with the silver complex; forward ~8x, ~20% ROE, Escobal optionality.
Silver resumes its bull, Escobal permitting advances, and the miner re-rates toward the (thin) Street target. ~+55%.
Silver stabilises and the deeply-cheap ~8x forward normalises toward low-double-digits. ~+29%.
A sustained silver breakdown + miner beta drag it toward the C$40 support. ~−23%. Trigger: a deeper silver downtrend or an Escobal setback.
Probability-weighted 12-month fair value ≈ C$78 (~+25%) — a strong positive skew: a scaled silver miner at ~8x forward with ~20% ROE and Escobal optionality is statistically cheap. The Bear (−23%) reflects the miner's higher beta — which is exactly why short is HOLD while medium/long are BUY/STRONG BUY.
Forecast: Fundamental met (Attractive + solid) → medium/long BUY / long STRONG BUY: accumulate the weakness. Technical unmet (breakdown) → the short-term entry is HOLD until the daily stabilises above ~C$66 or silver turns. Net: a cheap, scaled silver miner for patient capital; the higher beta means don't chase the short-term knife.
Forecast: Stop (C$44) ~29% below (the breakdown continuation); a break needs a sustained silver downtrend — the Bear's trigger. No exit trigger live today; the medium/long BUY/STRONG BUY stands.
What you're risking: a higher-beta miner while silver is in a live breakdown, plus LatAm jurisdiction risk. What you're gaining: a top-tier silver producer at forward ~8x with ~20% ROE and Escobal optionality. Read: long STRONG BUY / medium BUY — accumulate the weakness; short-term, wait for the daily to stabilise above ~C$66.
What you'd protect: against a deeper silver breakdown / Escobal setback. What you'd give up: the ~55% upside-to-target + Escobal optionality. Read: hold; add on weakness for medium/long. Stop only on a sustained break of C$44.
Position sizing not computed — no risk budget on file. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Half-size now, add on weakness for medium/long (Fundamental met, Technical breakdown): a scaled silver miner at ~8x forward, best accumulated into the silver-tape weakness. This is context, not advice.
{
"ticker": "PAAS.TO",
"date": "2026-07-09",
"version": "v6",
"company": "Pan American Silver Corp.",
"currency": "CAD",
"exchange": "TSX",
"exchange_ticker": "TSX:PAAS",
"isin": "CA6979001089",
"api_ticker": "PAAS.TO",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"lifecycle_stage": "mature_miner",
"sector": "Materials",
"gics_sector": "Materials",
"country": "Canada",
"finder_ticker": "PAAS",
"finder_exchange": "NYSE",
"price_at_rating": 62.11,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "STRONG_BUY",
"quality_score": 72,
"valuation_score": 64,
"timing_score": 44,
"driver_score": 60,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 62,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Mixed",
"economic_alignment_source": "macro sector-map (corrected)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
"overall_confidence": 56,
"val_band": "attractive",
"warranted_multiple": 13,
"actual_multiple": 8,
"warranted_ratio": 0.6,
"clean_pe": 8.3,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 5,
"val_multiple_basis": "forward P/E (trailing ~14x)",
"fair_value_est": 80,
"stop_loss": 44,
"target_price": 80,
"scenario_base_target": 80,
"scenario_bull_target": 96,
"scenario_bear_target": 48,
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Silver price-trend overlay"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"analyst_consensus_target": 96.91,
"analyst_target_high": 118.07,
"analyst_target_low": 75.76,
"analyst_coverage_count": 2,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-23",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (silver tape + FOMC/CPI)",
"prior_report": "calibration-PAAS.TO-20260702_1200.json",
"prior_primary": "WAIT/STRONG_BUY/STRONG_BUY",
"prior_price": 65.67,
"changes_note": "Cut to HOLD/BUY/STRONG BUY (from WAIT/STRONG BUY/STRONG BUY, 2 Jul). Due today (07-09). Step-2b silver downtrend overlay firms the short to HOLD (breakdown, RSI 35; miner beta) + cuts medium STRONG BUY->BUY; long stays STRONG BUY (Attractive fwd ~8x, ROE 20%, Escobal optionality). Matches K.TO/ABX/WPM. Short non-BUY confirms Materials\u00b7CA cell empties."
}
Signal now HOLD / BUY / STRONG BUY (from WAIT / STRONG BUY / STRONG BUY on 2 Jul; due today, 9 Jul). The Step-2b silver downtrend overlay firms the short to HOLD (support breakdown, RSI ~35; miner beta cuts hard) and cuts the medium STRONG BUY to BUY — but PAAS is a scaled silver miner (Q72) at an Attractive forward ~8x with ~20% ROE and Escobal optionality, so the long stays STRONG BUY. It matches the whole CA metals complex (K.TO, ABX.TO, WPM.TO). Its short non-BUY (with every CA gold/silver name now short HOLD/WAIT) confirms the Materials·CA grid cell empties this cycle.