Pan American Silver is one of the world's largest primary silver producers and a major gold miner, operating a portfolio of mines across Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Canada. Its core business is mining and processing silver- and gold-bearing ore into doré and concentrate that it sells to refiners and traders at prevailing spot prices, so revenue rises and falls with the metals cycle rather than with contracted volumes. What sets it apart is scale and diversification within the silver space — no single mine dominates, its 2026 silver all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of roughly US$16-18/oz sits far below a ~US$62 silver price, and a September-2025 acquisition of MAG Silver added a 44% stake in the high-grade Juanicipio mine. It also carries large latent optionality: the 100%-owned La Colorada Skarn silver-zinc deposit and the permitted-but-idle Escobal mine in Guatemala. For a reader, think of it as a diversified, low-cost silver-plus-gold producer whose earnings are a leveraged play on the silver price.
Lifecycle: Mature producer · Sector lens: Mining/Materials (silver-primary + material gold). Per the data-basis rule, Quality is scored off AISC margin, FCF and balance-sheet strength, not reported net income.
| Sub-signal | Value | Benchmark | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | +49% YoY (Q1-26 US$1,154M vs Q1-25 US$773M) | Price + Juanicipio-driven | 85 | Record metal prices + MAG volumes |
| AISC margin (silver) | Spot ~US$61.7 − AISC ~US$17 ≈ US$45 (72% of spot) | >40% = exceptional | 92 | Deep, cycle-durable margin |
| Cash generation | FCF ~US$1.30B TTM; FCF/sh US$3.24; OCF margin 43% | Strong | 82 | Record cash balance |
| Balance sheet | Net cash ~US$0.77B; int cov 22x; current 2.84 | Net D/EBITDA <2 easily | 90 | Fortress |
| ROE / ROA | 20.8% / 10.6% | Top-quartile miner | 80 | ROIC ~78th pct vs peers |
Moat = 52/100 (avg). A miner's edge is reserves + cost position + jurisdiction, not lock-in.
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory | Erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresnillo | Lower-cost primary-silver leader (Juanicipio operator) | Stable (PAAS now a 44% JV partner) | Cost-curve; PAAS is aligned, not displaced |
| Wheaton / streamers | Capital-cost advantage on new ounces | Stable | Financing cost, not operating share |
| First Majestic, Hecla | Peer primary-silver producers | PAAS gaining scale post-MAG | Reserve grade / jurisdiction mix |
→ Net effect: Cost Advantage held at 62, Switching Costs neutral 50. Competitive threat level: moderate (commodity price-taker; no share war). Quality confidence 78%.
| Lens | Value | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/NAV (mining primary) | ~1.0-1.2x at spot; net-cash balance sheet | Fair-to-cheap for scale + optionality | 60 |
| FCF yield (FCF/EV) | ~6.9% (US$1.30B / EV US$18.7B) | Attractive (5-8% band) | 75 |
| Forward P/E | ~9.1x (fwd EPS); trailing ~14.6x | Cheap on forward earnings | 70 |
| Reverse DCF / implied growth | Market embeds low-single-digit growth | Not extrapolating record silver → pessimistic | 78 |
| Analyst target (CAD) | C$65.67 vs consensus ~C$103 (high ~C$122, low ~C$77) | ~57% upside; price >20% below consensus | 85 |
| Grades consensus | Buy 13 / Hold 10 / Sell 2 (52% bullish) | Buy consensus, >30% holds | 55 |
PAAS earnings are a leveraged play on the silver price (gold is a material second leg). The company's economics are set by spot-vs-AISC, so the metal is the dominant external force above management execution.
| Horizon | Assessment | Data / date |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Silver ran hard over 12-24m to a ~US$65 peak, then a sharp ~20-23% correction to a 7-month low; structural deficit intact. Score ~70 | Spot history to Jul-2026 |
| Current (50%) | Silver ~US$61.74 (bounced ~3% off the low on the weak Jun jobs print); vs AISC ~US$17 the margin is ~72% — extremely favourable to P&L. Score ~82 | Spot 02-Jul-2026; gold ~US$4,130 |
| Forward (25%) | Macro report has Silver Short SU → Medium O → Long SO: near-term capitulation, deficit reasserts med/long; de-dollar bid + building rate-cut odds. Score ~76 | MacroDriver 2026-06-26 |
Driver score 80 = Strong Tailwind → amplification-eligible. The base BUY (Q/V/T) is unchanged by the driver; the driver + a Tailwind economy lift the base BUY to STRONG BUY on Medium/Long. On Short the economy is a Headwind (Silver S = SU), so no amplification there — and the §8 macro cluster caps Short at WAIT. Thesis-invalidation floor: silver sustained below ~US$45/oz. Driver confidence 68% (metal volatility haircut).
PAAS is not a named macro-watchlist ticker, so pressure is mapped from its driver/sector. The MacroDriver report (2026-06-26) has Silver Short SU → Medium O → Long SO and Materials (XLB) N/O/SO. Anchoring on Medium, the economic pressure is a Tailwind (structural deficit, de-dollar bid, building rate-cut odds) — so a long entry is Trend-Following with conviction 78. The Short horizon is a clear Headwind (SU): it blocks Short amplification and, with the §8 macro cluster, caps Short at WAIT. Tailwind + driver 80 ⇒ base BUY amplified to STRONG BUY on Medium and Long.
Source: sector-map (Silver asset-class SU/O/SO; Materials XLB N/O/SO) · Macro report 2026-06-26
| Sub-signal | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF confluence | Monthly up, weekly/daily down, intraday recovering — Mixed/Transitioning | 54 |
| Risk-reward | Near C$62-63 support; stop C$60 ~9% below; oversold RSI 37 bounce | 52 |
| Relative strength | Huge 12m outperformance; ~6-week ~−15% pullback in-line with the silver complex; 52w range position ~49% | 48 |
| Macro overlay (wt 0.20) | Materials = High sensitivity; Silver Short SU = headwind; rate-cut odds building | 45 |
| Sentiment | Net-positive grades (TD Cowen upgrade to Buy, May-12; RBC Outperform maintained) | 62 |
| Catalyst cluster | Elevated near-term: ISM Services Jul-6, FOMC Minutes Jul-8, CPI Jul-14; La Colorada reserve update + Q2 earnings pending | 50 |
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | ISM Services / Non-Mfg PMI (Jun) | High | 54.0 | 54.5 | ⚠ Medium | Growth gauge; second-tier for silver but in the WAIT window |
| 2026-07-08 | FOMC Minutes | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | Real-rate driver of precious metals; fires the §8 Short WAIT override |
| 2026-07-09 | Existing Home Sales (Jun) | High | 4.2M | 4.17M | — No | Not silver-relevant |
| 2026-07-14 | CPI / Inflation Rate YoY (Jun) | High | 3.9% | 4.2% | ✅ Yes | Top silver macro driver; next-run re-anchor |
| 2026-07-15 | PPI MoM (Jun) | High | 0.8% | 1.1% | ⚠ Medium | Inflation read-through |
| 2026-07-16 | Retail Sales MoM (Jun) | High | 0.3% | 0.9% | — No | Consumer, not silver |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment (Jun) | 57K / 4.2% | 110K / 4.3% | −48% miss | Dovish → rate-cut odds up → silver +3%, PAAS +3.3% (bullish, resolved) |
| 2026-07-01 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 53.3 | 54.0 | Below | Mildly soft; manufacturing gauge (resolved) |
| 2026-06-30 | CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) | 91.2 | 94.4 | Below | Softer consumer |
Today's Jun NFP printed a large downside miss (57K vs 110K), which markets read dovishly — silver bounced ~3% and PAAS +3.3%. That event is resolved and bullish; the live risk is the forward cluster: ISM Services (Jul-6) and FOMC Minutes (Jul-8) inside 3 trading days, then CPI (Jul-14). Because Materials is High macro-sensitivity, the in-window FOMC Minutes fires a Short-horizon WAIT-for-event override. Medium/Long are unaffected.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 56 | +8.1, rising | S:24 R:70 (US$) | Res breakout | 0.1x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 45 | −0.3, falling | S:46 R:56 (US$) | None | 0.6x |
| Daily | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 37 | −2.4, negative | S:43.7 R:55.9 (US$) | Support breakdown | 0.6x |
| Hourly | Recovering → | Neutral | 60 | +0.4, up | S:44 R:47 (US$) | Res breakout | — |
| 15-min | Strong Up ↑ | Bullish | 59 | +0.1, up | S:45 R:47 (US$) | Res breakout | — |
| Confluence: Mixed / Transitioning · MTF Score 54 | |||||||
The secular (monthly) uptrend is intact, but the weekly and daily structures have rolled over — the daily broke support with RSI at 37 — while intraday charts are bouncing (today +3.3%). This is a textbook pullback within a higher-timeframe uptrend that has not yet confirmed a higher low. Levels shown are on the US listing (US$); the CAD watch levels are support C$62-63, the C$72.6 (SMA50) reclaim, and the C$60 stop.
PAAS.TO 6-month daily (CAD) with 50-day SMA. Pullback from the Feb C$93 high to the C$62-63 support shelf; today's +3.3% bounce off the 7-month low. SMA50 (C$72.6) is the reclaim level; C$60 the stop.
Silver reasserts its structural deficit above US$75-80 and gold toward US$4,500 as rate cuts land; La Colorada reserve update and any Escobal-restart signal re-rate the optionality. PAAS runs to the high end of the analyst range.
Silver stabilises in a US$58-65 range, gold ~US$4,100; the ~72% AISC margin drives record FCF and the multiple re-rates toward CAD consensus (~C$103) as the metals correction is digested. This is the probability-weighted centre (~C$90).
Driver trigger — silver falls to US$45-48 on a risk-off unwind / firmer USD / a hawkish CPI surprise, compressing the multiple despite low costs. Secondary: an operational or permitting setback in Mexico/Guatemala. Tests the C$60 stop and the C$58 zone.
Probability-weighted 12-month target ≈ C$90 (0.30×C$118 + 0.45×C$90 + 0.25×C$58). Skew is favourable: ~+37% to base vs ~−12% to the bear zone.
Forecast: Fundamental group: MET now. Technical group: the C$62-63 higher-low branch is the reachable early entry — today's +3.3% bounce could confirm within days if it holds; the C$72.6 SMA50 reclaim is ~3-5 weeks away if silver stabilises (Moderate; a fresh silver leg down resets the clock — Low in the Jul 6-8 event window). Catalyst group: dormant until Q2 earnings (~early Aug). ⇒ 1 of 3 groups met = Half-Size.
Forecast: Stop-Loss: Unlikely in 4-6 weeks — price ~9% above C$60; would need silver back to fresh 7-month lows. Thesis-invalidation: Unlikely (silver ~US$62 vs a ~US$45 floor). Profit-Target: Unlikely near-term (needs ~+37% to C$90). Nearest risk trigger: a hawkish CPI (Jul-14) or FOMC-Minutes surprise re-breaking the C$62-63 shelf.
The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Half-Size (1 of 3 entry paths — the Fundamental group — met). No portfolio allocation or role was provided, so a precise position % is not computed. Illustrative context only: a fundamental accumulator can begin a starter/half-size position; a swing trader should wait for the Jul 6-8 macro cluster to clear or a C$62-63 higher-low reclaim. Beta ~1.5 (silver-leveraged), ATR ~C$3.4/day — size for ~2× market volatility.
{
"ticker": "PAAS.TO",
"exchange": "TSX",
"exchange_ticker": "TSX:PAAS",
"isin": "CA6979001089",
"api_ticker": "PAAS.TO",
"us_ticker": "PAAS",
"company": "Pan American Silver Corp.",
"country_table": "Canadian",
"date": "2026-07-02",
"report_time": "HHMM",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "PAAS",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6 TSX \u00b7 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"section": "Materials",
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"sector": "Materials (Silver + Gold Mining)",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"currency": "CAD",
"price_at_rating": 65.67,
"price_at_rating_usd": 46.29,
"fx_cad_per_usd": 1.419,
"market_cap_cad": 27670054912,
"shares_outstanding_m": 421.9,
"signal_short": "WAIT",
"signal_medium": "STRONG_BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"composite_short": 55,
"composite_medium": 66,
"composite_long": 71,
"quality_score": 80,
"valuation_score": 66,
"timing_score": 50,
"driver_score": 80,
"driver_label": "Strong Tailwind",
"moat_score": 52,
"fcf_yield": 6.9,
"implied_growth_rate": "low-single-digit embedded (market not extrapolating record silver)",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 13,
"clean_pe": 16.5,
"clean_peg": 1.3,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 78,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-26",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin (Spot - AISC)",
"industry_benchmark_value": 72,
"industry_benchmark_score": 92,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 78,
"capital_allocation": 74,
"management_skin_in_game": 58,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"silver_spot_usd": 61.74,
"gold_spot_usd": 4130,
"silver_aisc_2026_guide_usd": "15.75-18.25",
"gold_aisc_2026_guide_usd": "1700-1850",
"analyst_consensus_target": 103,
"analyst_target_high": 122,
"analyst_target_low": 77,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 57,
"analyst_consensus_target_usd_fmp": 74.4,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 52,
"analyst_coverage_count": 8,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "outperform 12m (huge), underperform ~6w (-15% pullback)",
"relative_strength_vs_sector": "in-line (silver-complex pullback)",
"rel_strength_52w_pct": 49,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 50,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2,
"mtf_confluence": 54,
"risk_reward_score": 52,
"confidence": {
"quality": 78,
"valuation": 64,
"timing": 50,
"driver": 68,
"economic": 75,
"overall": 50
},
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Accounting/Dilution (acquisition-driven share growth)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"amplification": {
"short": "base BUY capped to WAIT by \u00a78 macro-cluster override (FOMC Minutes Jul-8 within 3 trading days + High macro-sensitivity); economy is a Headwind short (Silver S=SU) so no amplification either way",
"medium": "base BUY amplified to STRONG_BUY (driver 80\u226565 + economic pressure Tailwind)",
"long": "base BUY amplified to STRONG_BUY (driver 80\u226565 + economic pressure Tailwind)"
},
"fair_value_est": 90,
"stop_loss": 60,
"scenario_base_target": 90.0,
"scenario_bull_target": 118.0,
"scenario_bear_target": 58.0,
"scenario_probs": {
"bull": 0.3,
"base": 0.45,
"bear": 0.25
},
"scenario_weighted_target": 90,
"target_price": 90,
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"entry_criteria_total": 3,
"entry_criteria_met": 1,
"exit_criteria_total": 3,
"exit_criteria_met": 0,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-09",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-09",
"next_update_basis": "FOMC Minutes 2026-07-08 +1 trading day (\u00a78 high-sensitivity macro cluster)",
"prior_report": "calibration-PAAS.TO-20260621-1006.json",
"delta_vs_prior": "Short BUY->WAIT (\u00a78 macro-cluster override); Medium/Long STRONG_BUY unchanged; price 69.02->65.67 (-4.9%); silver 65.56->61.74, gold 4165->4130; driver 82->80; timing 52->50 (-10 event haircut); valuation 65->66; scenarios 90/118/58 unchanged; next update Jul-2->Jul-9"
}
Signals: Short WAIT (was BUY — §8 macro-cluster override), Medium/Long STRONG BUY (unchanged). Half-Size, caution gate, no Do-Not-Buy. Silver ~US$61.74 (was ~US$65.56), gold ~US$4,130; driver 80 (was 82); timing 50 (was 52, −10 event haircut); valuation 66 (was 65). Scenarios C$90/118/58 unchanged. Next update Jul-9 (FOMC Minutes +1).