Unusually, the pillars agree here: a high-quality, net-cash business, at a fair-to-attractive price, riding a top-decile driver and the report's single highest-conviction economy call — with only the tape (a recent ~30% pullback and a Fed meeting one day out) holding the short horizon back. That alignment is why medium and long are both STRONG BUY while the short horizon is overridden to WAIT. The thing that made the gold-only seniors (AEM, ABX) only a "fair-price BUY" — a premium P/NAV — is precisely where PAAS is cheaper (~1.3× vs ~2× for the gold seniors), which earns PAAS the medium-term amplification they were denied.
Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fired. Leverage+rising-rates (net cash) ✓ · Valuation extreme (P/E not top-decile) ✓ · Negative earnings revisions (estimates rising with metal; TD Cowen & Zacks upgrades) ✓ · Insider selling spike (none in last 60 days) ✓ · Structural threat (none) ✓. Hard-gate state: CLEAR (✓).
Sector: Mining / Materials (Silver + Gold). Lifecycle: Mature producer — 2026 guidance 25–27 Moz silver and 700–750 koz gold, profitable and free-cash-generative, with a meaningful growth/optionality pipeline (Juanicipio, La Colorada Skarn, Timmins, Escobal). Scored on sector-appropriate metrics (AISC margin, FCF yield, net debt/EBITDA, reserve life), not on the optically huge but price-and-acquisition-driven +49% YoY revenue.
| Sub-Signal | Value | Sector Benchmark | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AISC margin (benchmark) | Silver ~76% · Gold ~59% of price | >40% of spot = 90–100 | 92 | Silver ~US$70 vs 2026 AISC ~US$17; gold ~US$4,350 vs ~US$1,775. Huge margin of safety on both metals. |
| Profitability vs peers | EBITDA 55.7% · net 31.7% · op ~48% | Top-tier among silver seniors | 86 | Record Q1: net income US$457M (+170% YoY), EPS US$1.08; margins near cycle highs. |
| Cash generation | FCF ~US$1.3B TTM (Q1 FCF US$488M) | FCF yield >5% strong | 80 | FCF yield ~6.3% on EV; record cash balance; ~79% FCF/operating-cash conversion. |
| Balance-sheet health | Net cash ~US$0.77B · D/E 0.11 · cur. 2.84× | Net debt/EBITDA <1× = strong | 90 | Effectively net-cash; interest coverage 22.0×. High survivability through a price cycle. |
| Reserve durability | P&P ~452 Moz Ag · ~6.3 Moz Au (Jun-25) | Reserve life >8 yrs = healthy | 78 | ~15+ yr implied silver reserve life at guided output; large M&I/inferred upside. (PAAS does not disclose explicit RLI — estimated.) |
Moat average ≈ 56. A miner's durable edge is geological and operational, not commercial — PAAS's genuine advantages are its scarce, large, long-life silver reserve base (one of the largest among publicly traded primary silver producers) and its high-grade, low-cost 44% Juanicipio JV. It cannot raise the price of its product, so pricing power is (correctly) neutral; jurisdiction risk in Latin America is the offset versus the Canada/Finland-anchored gold seniors.
| Component (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC / returns (40%) | ROE 20.8%, ROA 10.6%; FMP ROE & ROA sub-scores both 5/5. Top-quartile and rising with metal prices. | 80 |
| Capital-allocation discipline (30%) | MAG Silver acquisition (Sep 2025, ~US$2.1B) added the high-grade Juanicipio JV — margin-accretive. Record cash; ~US$1B shareholder-return target; conservative ~17% dividend payout + active NCIB buyback. | 76 |
| Management skin-in-the-game (30%) | Long-tenured team under CEO Steinmann; low SBC; delivered 2025 AISC below guidance. No recent insider buying; one ~25k-share insider sale in Jan 2026 (neutral). | 60 |
FMP financial-health rating: A− (4/5) — DCF 4, ROE 5, ROA 5, D/E 3, with the only drags being the valuation sub-scores (P/E 2, P/B 2). The independent rating confirms our high Quality read and previews the (mild) Valuation tension below — though PAAS's P/E and P/B are lower than the gold seniors'.
| Multiple | Current | Reference | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/NAV (primary, mining) | ~1.3× (Edison est.) | Seniors ~1.0–2.0× in a bull | Conservative-to-normal band — a discount to the ~2× gold seniors. Not pricing in sustained spot silver. |
| Forward P/E | ~10.3× | 2026E EPS ~US$4.38–5.06 | Optically cheap — but the "E" is peak silver/gold; analysts model EPS easing after 2028. |
| EV/EBITDA | ~9.5× | Reasonable at spot, rich on mid-cycle | Fair today; normalises higher if metal mean-reverts. |
| Trailing P/E / P/B | 16.4× / 2.99× | FMP P/E & P/B sub-scores 2/5 | P/B rich; the statistical-cheapness book screen fails, the cash-flow screens pass. |
| FCF yield (anchor) | ~6.3% on EV | 5–8% attractive | Honest cash yield in the attractive band — higher than the gold seniors (~5.3%). |
At C$72.75 with a net-cash balance sheet and ~US$1.3B TTM FCF, the market is roughly capitalising current free cash flow at a high-single-digit discount rate with little real growth — and at ~1.3× P/NAV it is not extrapolating record silver forever (that would demand a richer multiple). Consensus agrees near-term but not long: EPS is modelled ~US$2.24 (2025) → US$4.38 (2026E) → US$4.98 (2027E) → easing to US$4.83 (2028E) and lower into 2029–30 as analysts assume metal normalises. So the forward-P/E "cheapness" rests on peak earnings, but the conservative P/NAV means the downside is partly pre-priced. That combination — cheap on cash, modest on NAV — is why Valuation lands Fair-leaning-Attractive rather than richly priced.
| Metric | USD (NYSE:PAAS) | CAD equiv. | Upside vs C$72.75 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus / mean | US$74.40 | ~C$104.3 | +43.3% |
| Median | US$72.00 | ~C$100.9 | +38.7% |
| High / Low | US$94 / US$54 | ~C$131.7 / ~C$75.7 | spread 1.7× (moderate) |
| Coverage / recency | 13 all-time · last-qtr avg US$83 | Targets racing up (all-time avg only US$52; last-year US$64) as silver/gold re-rate. Grades: Buy 13 · Hold 10 · Sell 2. | |
Targets signal ~40% upside (Attractive on this sub-signal alone, ~10% of the pillar). The grades distribution (FMP): Buy 13 · Hold 10 · Sell 2 → 52% bullish ("Buy with >30% holds" → ~50) — a constructive but not euphoric Street, leaving room to run as holds convert. Recent grade actions skew positive: TD Cowen upgrade to Buy (May 12), RBC Outperform maintained (Apr 28), and a Zacks Rank upgrade to Buy (Jun 16). A thin, only-2-analyst Yahoo CAD feed shows a much higher ~C$101 mean — treated with caution given coverage depth. FMP health rating A−, dragged only by the P/E (2) and P/B (2) valuation sub-scores — independently corroborating "high quality, full on book, cheap on cash."
| Horizon (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Silver ran ~US$36 (Jun-25) → ~US$70 (+~90% YoY); gold ~US$3,420 → ~US$4,350 (+~27%). A generational precious-metals bull; PAAS +103% over 12 months. | 95 |
| Current state (50%) | Silver ~US$70 vs AISC ~US$17 (~76% margin); gold ~US$4,350 vs ~US$1,775 (~59%). About as favourable as it gets for a producer. | 92 |
| Forward outlook (25%) | Macro report rates GLD Strong Outperform & SLV Outperform across horizons (CB gold buying, de-dollar, fiscal debasement, electrification deficit). Tempered by record price levels, a +2.2% real yield that could bite on a hawkish Fed, and silver's higher volatility — the silver-miner ETF fell ~12% in a single session on Jun 5. | 60 |
Driver score = 95·0.25 + 92·0.50 + 60·0.25 ≈ 84 → Strong Tailwind, amplification-eligible (≥65). It does not change the base BUY/HOLD/SELL or the three fundamental pillar scores — it only enables a base BUY to become STRONG BUY when the economy also pushes the same way (it does, §6). The forward leg is deliberately the most cautious input: silver near a record, a positive real yield, and a fresh −12% ETF air-pocket are exactly the record-level/pullback risks that keep this from being a naive momentum chase. Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained silver break below ~US$30/oz (with gold below ~US$2,500) would compress margins and invalidate the case; below ~US$22 silver the Severe-Driver-Collapse gate would arm. Both are far below spot. Confidence 68% (−15 for silver's inherent forward volatility; current state crystal-clear).
PAAS is not a named line in the macro report's Economic Watchlist Forecast (only MNO.TO, SOFI and DLO are), so the read comes from the Driver-Sector Impact Matrix: PAAS is Materials (XLB), and the report rates XLB Strong Outperform / Strong Outperform / Strong Outperform across Short/Medium/Long — the only sector that is SO on all three horizons — with capital flow IN / IN / IN. The matching assets are Gold (GLD) SO/SO/SO and Silver (SLV) Outperform with money flowing in on the electrification deficit and monetary-debasement bid. The dominant regime is Stagflation (oil shock + hawkish Fed), in which precious metals are the report's highest-conviction multi-year beneficiaries (de-dollarisation, CB accumulation ~244t in Q1, sovereign-debt/fiscal dominance, Iran/Hormuz risk premium).
Anchoring on the Medium horizon, the pressure is a clear Tailwind; going long rides the economic trend (Trend-Following), conviction 80. The one near-term cross-current the macro report itself flags is a fast-money USD bid and hawkish-Fed repricing (Jun 17 FOMC) that can drive a short, sharp metals pullback even as the structural tailwind persists — the same event the Timing pillar and §8 flag for the short horizon. Amplification effect: the Tailwind fired at both Medium and Long — combined with the driver (84 ≥65), it lifts the base BUY to STRONG BUY at both horizons. Unlike the premium-priced gold seniors (where the medium amplification was declined on valuation), PAAS's cheaper ~1.3× P/NAV leaves no valuation reason to withhold it. Source: sector-map; macro report 2026-06-13. Confidence 75%.
| Sub-signal (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | Monthly & weekly uptrend (monthly resistance breakout); daily downtrend + support breakdown but price has reclaimed the 200-DMA (C$68.04); hourly/15-min bouncing. | 63 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | Price ~C$72.75, ~19% above the C$59 stop; ~7% above the C$61.23 swing low; daily ATR ~C$3.7 (5.1%). A constructive support test, but below the 50-DMA. | 55 |
| Macro overlay (20%, High sensitivity) | Materials rotation IN (XLB SO); VIX 16.2 (calm); yield curve +0.38 normal; but a hawkish Fed + silver's high beta are a near-term cross-current. | 65 |
| Sentiment (15%) | Grades net-positive (TD Cowen upgrade to Buy 5/12; RBC OP maintained; Zacks upgrade 6/16); news tone strongly positive ("most undervalued silver miner," Timmins expansion, investor day). | 66 |
| Catalysts (15%) | No earnings within 14 days (Q2 ~Aug 12); no clustered events. Calm — barring the macro FOMC overlay handled in §8. | 75 |
Relative strength & range: PAAS has crushed SPY over 12 months (+103%) on the silver bull, but gave back ~30% from its mid-May ~C$88 high into the early-June flush (low C$61.23). It now sits ~24% below the C$95.39 52-week high (range position ~57%, mid-to-upper). Position-risk: the C$61.23 swing low is the line in the sand; price has reclaimed the C$68 200-DMA and the daily EMA20 (~C$71), but not the ~C$75.6 50-DMA — a daily close back above it would confirm trend repair and meaningfully improve the entry.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC rate decision + projections + presser | High | Hold 3.75% | 3.75% | ✅ Critical — silver/gold are real-yield sensitive; any hawkish surprise lifts real yields & the USD |
| 2026-06-17 | Retail Sales MoM (May) | High | +0.5% | +0.5% | ⚠️ Indirect — growth/risk read |
| 2026-06-25 | Core PCE MoM (May) | High | +0.2% | +0.2% | ✅ Inflation → Fed path → real yields → metals |
| 2026-06-30 | CB Consumer Confidence / JOLTs | High | — | 93.1 / 7.62M | ⚠️ Medium |
| 2026-07-01 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | High | 52.5 | 54.0 | ⚠️ Medium — industrial-silver demand read |
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment (Jun) | High | +70K / 4.5% | +172K / 4.3% | ✅ Labour softening → Fed path → metals |
Recent surprises (last 7 days): CPI YoY (May) 4.2% (inline, up from 3.8% — sticky); Core CPI YoY 2.9%; PPI MoM hot at +1.1% (+57% surprise); Michigan sentiment beat (48.9). The tape is stagflationary — structurally supportive of precious metals as an inflation/debasement hedge, but also fuel for a hawkish Fed and higher real yields that can pressure silver/gold short-term. Override: because mining is High-sensitivity and a high-impact FOMC is <3 trading days out, the short-term signal is set to WAIT-FOR-EVENT regardless of composite, and the report's next-update is pinned to FOMC +1 day (2026-06-18).
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | MACD | Key S/R (CAD) | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | 61.2 | +, rising | R 95.39 | Resistance breakout | 0.47× |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | 46.8 | −, falling | S 68.76 / 63.09 · R 82.98 / 88.92 | Resistance breakout | 0.93× |
| Daily | Downtrend ↓ | 42.0 | −, flat | S 61.23 · MA50 75.6 / MA200 68.0 | Support breakdown | 1.32× |
| Hourly | Uptrend ↑ | 68.6 | +, rising | S 67.3 · R 73.8 / 75.3 | Resistance breakout | 1.15× |
| 15-min | Uptrend ↑ | 56.4 | flat | S 71.1 · R 72.6 / 73.8 | Resistance breakout | 3.94× |
| Confluence: Mostly-bullish secular trend with a daily pullback — weighted MTF score ≈ 63 (tool flag: "strongly bullish," driven by the monthly breakout + lower-TF bounce). | ||||||
Monthly and weekly structures remain in uptrends with the monthly at a fresh resistance breakout, but the daily rolled over below its 50-DMA with a support breakdown during the early-June flush — the signature of a correction within a larger bull. Price has since rebounded ~18% off the C$61.23 swing low and reclaimed the C$68 200-DMA on rising hourly/15-min momentum (15-min volume 3.94×). Net read: a constructive "buy-the-dip" zone, with the next confirmation being a daily close back above the ~C$75.6 50-DMA; until then the bounce is event-exposed (FOMC).
Silver holds/extends above ~US$70 and gold above ~US$4,300; real yields ease on a dovish Fed pivot; H2-weighted production delivers and La Colorada Skarn / Escobal optionality re-rates. PAAS retests its highs toward the analyst mean (~C$104). Driver + economy fire on all cylinders.
Silver/gold range-bound at a high level; PAAS reclaims the 50-DMA and re-rates toward fair value (~C$86) and the lower analyst band as record FCF and buybacks compound. Steady accumulation pays.
Hawkish Fed lifts real yields; risk-off USD strength triggers a 25–35% silver correction (to ~US$45). PAAS breaks the C$61.23 swing low; the multiple de-rates. Margins stay positive (no distress) — a valuation reset, not a solvency event.
Key levels (CAD): Stop C$59 · Support C$68 (200-DMA) / C$61.23 (swing low) / C$55 · Fair value ~C$86 · Resistance C$75.6 (50-DMA) / C$83 / C$88.9 / C$95.39 (52w high) · Analyst mean ~C$104.
Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified for this batch analysis. Volatility context for when you do size: beta ~1.5 vs SPY (high market beta, and very high silver beta), daily ATR ~C$3.7 (~5.1% of price), and a demonstrated ~30% peak-to-trough drawdown in the last six weeks. Catalyst clustering is calm (score ~70) apart from the FOMC overlay, so no clustering-based size cut applies — but silver's single-session −12% ETF move on Jun 5 is a reminder to size for high volatility. For medium/long horizons, a staggered 3-tranche entry — e.g. after the FOMC clears, on a daily reclaim of ~C$75.6, and at a C$61–64 swing-low retest — would average in and reduce timing risk given the live event.
calibration-PAAS.TO-20260616-1703.json so the next run can compute deltas and the watchlist monitor can render the Hard-Gate / Entry / Exit cells without parsing HTML. This is the first report for PAAS.TO — no prior calibration, so no "Changes Since Last Report" box.{
"ticker": "PAAS.TO", "exchange_ticker": "TSX:PAAS", "isin": "CA6979001089",
"company": "Pan American Silver Corp.", "date": "2026-06-16", "version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going", "finder_ticker": "PAAS", "finder_exchange": "🇨🇦 TSX · 🇺🇸 NYSE",
"section": "Silver Miners", "lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"price_at_rating_cad": 72.75, "price_at_rating_usd": 51.92, "fx_cad_per_usd": 1.401,
"signal_short": "WAIT_FOR_EVENT", "signal_medium": "STRONG_BUY", "signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"composite_short": 62, "composite_medium": 67, "composite_long": 72,
"quality_score": 80, "valuation_score": 64, "timing_score": 58,
"driver_score": 84, "driver_label": "Strong Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following", "economic_alignment_conviction": 80,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind", "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-13",
"quality_detail": {"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin", "industry_benchmark_value": 76,
"industry_benchmark_score": 92, "moat_score": 56, "roic_percentile_vs_peers": 80,
"capital_allocation": 76, "management_skin_in_game": 60, "fmp_rating": "A-", "fmp_overall_score": 4},
"valuation_detail": {"fcf_yield": 6.3, "forward_pe": 10.3, "trailing_pe": 16.4, "ev_ebitda": 9.5, "pb": 2.99,
"p_nav": 1.3, "analyst_consensus_target_usd": 74.40, "analyst_target_high_usd": 94, "analyst_target_low_usd": 54,
"analyst_consensus_target_cad": 104.3, "analyst_target_upside_pct": 43.3, "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 52, "analyst_coverage_count": 13, "recent_upgrades_30d": 1, "recent_downgrades_30d": 0},
"timing_detail": {"mtf_confluence": 63, "risk_reward_score": 55, "catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.20, "rel_strength_52w_pct": 57},
"confidence": {"quality": 78, "valuation": 66, "timing": 62, "driver": 68, "economic": 75, "overall": 62},
"hard_gate_state": "clear", "gates_triggered": [], "gates_caution": [], "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"amplification": {"short": "overridden_WAIT (FOMC <3d, High macro sensitivity)", "medium": "BUY->STRONG_BUY (driver 84 + Tailwind; cheap ~1.3x P/NAV)", "long": "BUY->STRONG_BUY (driver 84 + Tailwind)"},
"fair_value_est_cad": 86, "stop_loss_cad": 59, "target_base_cad": 88, "target_bull_cad": 105, "target_bear_cad": 56,
"entry_criteria_total": 5, "entry_criteria_met": 2, "exit_criteria_total": 3, "exit_criteria_met": 0,
"next_update_date": "2026-06-18", "next_check_date": "2026-06-18",
"next_update_basis": "FOMC 2026-06-17 +1d (silver/gold rate-sensitive, high-impact within 3-day window)"
}