Signals unchanged — HOLD across all three horizons. NVIDIA stays a HOLD, not a BUY: it remains in the Expensive band (clean P/E 35.8× = 1.52× the warranted 23.5×, above the 28× semis guardrail), firing the Gate-3 Valuation Ceiling ('great business, wrong price'). No Do-Not-Buy fires — the macro AI-concentration tail is armed but NOT triggering (breadth is broadening: equal-weight RSP beats cap-weight SPY on the 1-wk and 1-mo windows, above its 50-DMA — the skill's disarm signal), so its de-rating leg is a loud watch, not a live catalyst.
NVIDIA designs the accelerated-computing hardware and software that trains and runs the world's AI. Its core product is the data-center GPU (the Blackwell and now Rubin generations) plus the CUDA software stack, high-speed NVLink/Mellanox networking, and full 'AI factory' systems it sells to cloud providers, enterprises and governments. What sets it apart is a near-monopoly in AI training — roughly 80% of the accelerator market — protected by two decades of the CUDA developer ecosystem that most AI software is written against, and by a one-year product cadence rivals struggle to match. Beyond data centre it still sells GeForce gaming GPUs, professional visualisation and automotive chips. In short: the dominant 'picks-and-shovels' supplier of the AI build-out, earning extraordinary margins while that build-out lasts.
Lifecycle & sector: Information Technology / Semiconductors, classified high-growth (Q1 FY27 revenue +85% YoY, elite margins). Scored on semis + hyper-scaler-demand metrics, not mature-company P/E-of-earnings logic.
| Sub-signal | Value | Peer / context | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | Q1 FY27 $81.6B, +85% YoY; TTM ~$253B | Fastest-growing mega-cap; decelerating off a huge base | 90 | Top-line momentum still exceptional |
| Profitability | Op margin 64%; gross 74%; clean net margin ~55% | Semis median op margin ~25% | 95 | Monopoly-grade margins |
| Cash generation | FCF/sh $4.90; FCF margin ~47% | Elite; FCF conversion >90% | 92 | Cash is real, not accrual |
| Balance sheet | Net cash; D/E 0.07; int-cov 544×; current 3.44 | Fortress | 96 | Zero survivability risk |
| Industry benchmark (GM + demand) | Gross margin 74%; demand red-hot | >> 55% healthy line | 92 | Pricing power + demand both green |
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperscaler custom silicon — Google TPU, AWS Trainium, MSFT Maia, Meta MTIA (via Broadcom/Marvell) | Vertical in-house substitution | Fastest-growing threat: Meta begins in-house AI-chip deployment from Sept; custom-ASIC sales projected +45% (TrendForce) | NVIDIA's largest customers designing out dependence in the price-sensitive inference tier — erodes switching cost and cost advantage |
| AMD (MI350X/MI400) | Direct merchant rival | Not taking share — NVIDIA inference revenue exceeds AMD's combined AI revenue | Price/TCO in inference; ROCm maturing vs CUDA — real but not yet biting |
| Intel (Gaudi) | Direct rival | Losing / negligible | Minimal near-term pressure |
ROIC is top-of-peer-set (FMP ROE/ROA sub-scores both 5/5). Capital allocation disciplined — buybacks (share count falling ~1%/yr), a token dividend, reinvestment at very high returns. Management skin-in-the-game scored 72: founder-led (Jensen Huang), but insider sales run on 10b5-1 plans and SBC, while modest as a % of revenue, is real. Quality confidence 78% (−: high-growth names are inherently harder to score; the earnings-quality distortion required normalisation).
| Metric | Reported | Clean (operating) |
|---|---|---|
| TTM EPS (diluted) | $6.53 | $5.67 |
| TTM P/E (at $203.28) | 31.1× | 35.8× |
| PEG (vs ~24% growth) | 0.28 (uses hyper-growth — meaningless) | ~1.5 |
Implied-growth read (narrative colour): at $203 on clean TTM earnings the market is embedding ~24%/yr for 5 years; our disciplined estimate is ~18% — the price embeds more growth than we are willing to underwrite. On forward FY27 estimates the picture softens (fwd P/E low-20s×) — the growth-stock tension is real, and it is the honest counter-case to the Do-Not-Buy: if the aggressive forward growth is delivered, the name grows into the price. The framework will not pay up for the flawless path at a rich multiple — hence HOLD, not a fresh buy — while flagging the armed (not-yet-triggering) concentration tail as the loud downside watch.
| Lens (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Warranted-multiple anchor (40%) | 35.8× vs 23.5× warranted = 1.52× → Expensive; also > 28× floor | ~28 |
| Sector median (20%) | Fwd P/E low-20s× roughly in line with mega-cap semis; trailing rich | 50 |
| Own-history decile (15%) | ~6th decile of its own 5-yr range (not extreme vs itself) | 55 |
| PEG (10%) | Clean PEG ~1.5 (fair-ish for the growth) | 50 |
| Analyst consensus (15%) | Consensus $319.48 (+57%), median $300 (+48%), high $500, low $218 — strongly bullish; but a lagging herd at ~76% bullish (all 'maintains') | 85 |
FCF yield (universal anchor): ~2.4% (FCF/sh $4.90 ÷ $203) — the "3–5% expensive-needs-growth" zone, and below it. Confirms the anchor.
Valuation confidence 72% (+ hard analyst targets, grades, ratings snapshot all available; − the earnings-quality distortion and the reported-vs-clean gap widen the interval).
Primary driver: the AI / data-center accelerator capex supercycle — hyperscaler and sovereign spending on AI infrastructure. NVIDIA is the geared bet on the direction of that spend. (Not a commodity-price driver, so the Step-2b commodity-trend overlay does not apply.)
| Horizon (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Data-center revenue compounded from ~$47B to ~$253B TTM in two years — the strongest capex wave in tech history | 85 |
| Current (50%) | Blackwell/GB300 ramp sold out; Rubin on track; inference share ~74%; ~$1T demand visibility cited through 2027. But the 22–30 Jul hyperscaler prints are a binary — a single capex guide-down is an index-level event | 72 |
| Forward (25%) | Consensus capex still robust but decelerating; custom-silicon substitution + China export limits cap the upside | 66 |
Driver score 73 → Tailwind. This is ≥65, so it is eligible to amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY — but the base signal is HOLD, so no amplification occurs and the driver does not change the three fundamental pillar scores. Thesis-invalidation floor: a hyperscaler capex cut (not just deceleration) — that is the dial to watch, and it is the same event that would trigger the (currently armed-but-not-firing) systemic concentration tail in §11 — the downside watch; the market-wide read comes at the 22–30 Jul hyperscaler prints. Driver confidence 70%.
The 20 Jul MacroDriver regime is Stagflation-lite (energy-supply-shock driven) — a narrow, contested lead. It maps Information Technology (XLK) to Underperform short / Neutral medium / Outperform long (U / N / O): a near-term Headwind (mega-cap concentration + a 10-Y near 4.5%+ pressuring long-duration multiples + the 22–30 Jul earnings binary), Neutral medium, structural Tailwind long. Anchoring on the medium horizon, the economic pressure is Neutral, so no amplification is enabled either way (and the base signal is HOLD regardless). Stance Neutral, conviction 50 — a mild net near-term drag, informational. The same report carries an armed 'S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind' tail aimed at NVIDIA's cohort — but it is armed and NOT triggering: the macro report's own breadth-tell shows equal-weight RSP beating cap-weight SPY on both the 1-week and 1-month windows, with RSP above its 50-DMA — the skill's explicit disarm/falsification signal. So the inherited de-rating leg is a loud watch (§11 Bear), not a live catalyst, and it does not fire a Do-Not-Buy. This is a material change from the prior report's Trend-Following/Tailwind read (the 3 Jul macro had XLK O/O/O).
Source: sector-map (XLK — NVDA not in the macro watchlist set) · Macro report 2026-07-20
Risk-reward: $203 sits below the falling 50-DMA (~$210) but well above the rising 200-DMA (~$192) and the $189.8 late-June swing low. A logical stop below that support is ~$186 (~2.3 ATR; ATR $7.5 = 3.7%). Reward to the base target ($225) is ~+11%; to bull ($295) ~+45%; downside to the bear ($145) is -29%. Not the tightly-skewed setup you want to initiate on — and the Do-Not-Buy overrides it anyway.
Relative strength: NVDA is -14% from the $236.54 May high; over the last 3 months it is roughly +2% vs SPY +6% (a ~4-point lag) as capital rotates within tech (Apple +12%/mo, NVDA -4%/mo per the tape). Vs the SMH semis ETF it lagged over 3 months (memory names led) but outperformed the falling SMH over the last month. 52-week range position ~54% (mid). Net: a modest relative laggard vs SPY.
Macro overlay (semis = medium sensitivity, 15%): the 20 Jul regime maps XLK to short-Underperform — a near-term headwind (rate + concentration drag); Fed on hold into a contested Stagflation-lite regime. Neutral-to-mildly-negative near term.
Sentiment: analyst grades are a wall of maintains (0 upgrades / 0 downgrades in 30 days) — no fresh conviction. News tone is genuinely mixed: positive product/partnership flow (Palantir government-AI deal, Omniverse toolkit, ~74% inference share, $1T demand visibility cited) against a loud valuation/rotation bear thread (Apple overtaking NVDA as most valuable, SOXX -19% off its June high, Meta in-house chips from Sept, crash-risk pieces). Blended sentiment ~50.
Catalysts: the late-July macro cluster (FOMC 29 Jul, GDP + Core PCE 30 Jul) plus the market-wide 22-30 Jul hyperscaler prints; NVDA own earnings not until 26 Aug. Some clustering of index-level events. Catalyst score ~52. Timing confidence 58% (-: below a falling 50-DMA; confluence bearish; RS soft vs SPY).
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul | Durable Goods MoM (Jun) | High | 0.3% | −4.5% | ⚠ Low | Capex demand read (indirect) |
| 29 Jul | FOMC Rate Decision (Warsh) | High | Hold 3.75% | 3.75% | ✅ Yes | Rate path → long-duration tech multiples; the regime event |
| 30 Jul | Q2 GDP (Advance) | High | ~1.1–2.0% | 2.1% | ⚠ Medium | Growth read; risk appetite for high-beta tech |
| 30 Jul | Core PCE MoM (Jun) | High | 0.3% | 0.3% | ✅ Yes | Inflation → rate path → growth-multiple sensitivity |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul | Core CPI YoY (Jun) | 2.6% | 2.8% | −7.1% (below) | Soft — eased the multiple headwind (last clean print before gasoline re-accelerates) |
| 14 Jul | CPI MoM (Jun) | −0.4% | −0.1% | below | Soft headline (energy leg); disinflation now reversing |
| 17 Jul | Michigan Sentiment (Jul) | 54.4 | 51.0 | +6.7% (above) | Consumer firmer than feared — keeps Reacceleration alive |
| 17 Jul | Housing Starts (Jun) | 1.427M | 1.31M | +8.9% (above) | Firm housing argues against near-term demand destruction |
The window is dominated by a late-July macro cluster: the 29 Jul FOMC (hold expected, no explicit Sep-cut green light into the energy shock), Q2 GDP + Core PCE on 30 Jul. Soft June CPI (14 Jul) eased the rate-driven multiple headwind, but the macro author flags it as the last clean disinflation print before gasoline re-accelerates on the Iran/Hormuz oil spike. Semis are medium macro-sensitivity, so no 3-day WAIT-override fires. For NVDA the far bigger event is off this calendar: the 22–30 Jul hyperscaler earnings — the trigger window for the armed AI-concentration tail.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 67.0 | +, hist rolling | S: 164 · R: 236.5 | Res-breakout | 0.4x |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 53.3 | +, flattening | S: 164 · R: 197.6 / 214 | Res-breakout | 0.1x |
| Daily | Weakening → | Neutral | 48.2 | +, turning up | S: 189.8 / 194.7 · R: 214 | Res-breakout | 1.0x |
| Hourly | Weakening ↓ | Bearish | 44.2 | −, flat | S: 198 · R: 207 | Support-breakdown | — |
| 15-min | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 47.9 | +, basing | S: 202 · R: 206 | — | — |
| Confluence: Mixed — primary trend up, tactical trend down (tool: bearish) · MTF Score 55 | |||||||
The higher timeframes (monthly, weekly) remain in uptrends and price ($203) is above the rising 200-DMA ($192) — the secular bull structure is intact. But the stock is −14% off its $236.54 May peak and sits below a falling 50-DMA (~$210); the daily MACD histogram has just turned up (a tentative positive) while the intraday timeframes are still heavy — hence the tool's 'bearish' confluence read. Net: a pullback / consolidation within a larger uptrend. The reachable early entry is a reclaim of the $210 50-DMA on volume, or a tested higher-low bounce off $189.8–192 — neither confirmed. Key level: $189.8–192 (swing low + 200-DMA).
NVDA 6-month daily. Peaked $236.54 (13 May), now $203.28 — a −14% pullback that has broken below the falling 50-DMA (~$210) but is holding well above the rising 200-DMA (~$192) / $189.8 swing low. Monthly/weekly uptrend intact; daily consolidating.
AI-capex supercycle re-accelerates; Blackwell→Rubin ramp with no share loss; the multiple holds ~35–40× on rising clean EPS. Breadth stays broad and the concentration tail is disarmed. Reaches near the analyst median ~$295–300 (+45%). Trigger: hyperscaler capex guides up at the 22–30 Jul prints; custom-silicon share plateaus.
Growth delivers but the multiple compresses toward the warranted ~24–28× as the cycle matures and EPS grows into the price. ~$225 (+11%). Trigger: steady execution, modest digestion, no capex cut, breadth neither broadens decisively nor breaks. This is the probability-weighted centre of gravity.
The dual downside. (i) Idiosyncratic: hyperscaler custom silicon (Meta live from Sept) + AMD take visible inference share and gross margin compresses. (ii) Systemic WATCH — the 20 Jul macro AI-concentration tail is currently armed but NOT triggering (breadth is broadening, RSP leading SPY — the disarm signal). IF it fires — breadth narrows, or a dated hyperscaler capex cut / AI private-valuation markdown lands — a cohort-level multiple de-rating takes the AI mega-caps from ~30–40× toward ~18–22× (NVIDIA's own CoreWeave-type gains reverse). Combined path ~$145 (−29%). Falsification / stays-disarmed: breadth keeps broadening and capex holds.
Forecast: 0 of 3 groups met → Conviction: WAIT. There is no entry edge at $203, and the Valuation-Ceiling gate caps the signal at HOLD regardless. Fundamental turns MET only on a pullback into the ~$186–195 zone (or EPS growing into the multiple at the 26 Aug print); Technical turns MET on a confirmed higher-low bounce off $189.8–192 (moderate — tape is above it) or a $210 50-DMA reclaim on volume (low near-term — the 50-DMA is falling ~3.5% above spot); Catalyst is earnings-dependent (26 Aug). Confidence: Moderate — the realistic path to a buy setup is a de-rating toward $186–195 or the 26 Aug EPS step-up.
Forecast: For an existing holder this is a Hold — no exit rule is live: the stop ($186) is ~8% below and unlikely absent a broad tech de-rating, and the earliest real risk is the 22–30 Jul hyperscaler prints (an index-level capex tell) and the 26 Aug NVDA print. HOLD caps fresh buying; it does not force a quality holder out.
Position sizing not computed — no risk budget or portfolio role was specified for this watchlist name. Illustrative context only: the signal is HOLD (capped by the Valuation-Ceiling gate) and the §12 Conviction Ladder reads WAIT (0/3 entry paths met), so the sizing guidance is to wait for an entry path (a de-rating toward $186–195 or an EPS catch-up) rather than assign a %. Beta is 2.21 — a given dollar position carries ~2.2× the market's daily swing (a 5% weight behaves like ~11% in risk terms); daily ATR ~3.7%. An existing holder is not forced out here.
{
"ticker": "NVDA",
"date": "2026-07-20",
"version": "v6",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"ticker_display": "NASDAQ:NVDA",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:NVDA",
"isin": "US67066G1040",
"api_ticker": "NVDA",
"company": "NVIDIA Corporation",
"sector": "Technology",
"sub_industry": "Semiconductors",
"section": "Technology / Nasdaq",
"finder_ticker": "NVDA",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"lifecycle_stage": "high-growth",
"beta": 2.211,
"shares_outstanding": 24286000000,
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"price_at_rating": 203.28,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"composite_short": 54,
"composite_medium": 58,
"composite_long": 66,
"quality_score": 90,
"valuation_score": 38,
"timing_score": 53,
"driver_score": 73,
"overall_confidence": 58,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "Gross Margin + Demand (Semis)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "GM 74% / demand red-hot",
"industry_benchmark_score": 92,
"moat_score": 81,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 98,
"capital_allocation": 85,
"management_skin_in_game": 72
},
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 2.4,
"reported_pe": 31.1,
"clean_pe": 35.8,
"warranted_multiple": 23.5,
"actual_multiple": 35.8,
"warranted_ratio": 1.52,
"discount_rate_r": 11.0,
"risk_free_10y": 4.5,
"g_near": 18,
"g_term": 3,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean TTM P/E",
"val_band": "expensive",
"implied_growth_rate": 24.0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 24.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 6
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 55,
"risk_reward_score": 52,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -3.8,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": 0.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 52,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15
},
"warranted_multiple": 23.5,
"actual_multiple": 35.8,
"warranted_ratio": 1.52,
"discount_rate_r": 11.0,
"risk_free_10y": 4.5,
"g_near": 18,
"g_term": 3,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean TTM P/E",
"val_band": "expensive",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 14.3,
"clean_pe": 35.8,
"clean_peg": 1.5,
"driver_name": "AI / data-center accelerator capex cycle",
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"driver_amplification_eligible": true,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 50,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map (XLK)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "elevated",
"moat_score": 81,
"fcf_yield": 2.4,
"analyst_consensus_target": 319.48,
"analyst_target_high": 500,
"analyst_target_low": 218,
"analyst_target_median": 300,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 57.2,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 76,
"analyst_coverage_count": 79,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"fair_value_est": 200.0,
"stop_loss": 186.0,
"target_price": 225.0,
"scenario_base_target": 225,
"scenario_bull_target": 295,
"target_bull": 295,
"target_bear": 145,
"scenario_bear_target": 145,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"entry_criteria_met": 0,
"entry_criteria_total": 3,
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"exit_criteria_met": 0,
"exit_criteria_total": 3,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [
"Valuation Ceiling (Gate 3)"
],
"gates_caution": [
"Earnings-quality (non-op gains)",
"Regulatory / China export controls",
"Systemic AI-concentration tail (armed, not triggering)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-08-03",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (earnings 2026-08-26 beyond window)",
"currency": "USD",
"time": "1200"
}
Signal HOLD / HOLD / HOLD (unchanged vs 6 Jul at $196.28). It stays HOLD — not BUY — because the name remains Expensive (clean P/E 35.8× = 1.52× warranted 23.5×, above the 28× guardrail), firing the Gate-3 Valuation Ceiling ('great business, wrong price'). No Do-Not-Buy trigger fires: the macro AI-concentration tail is armed but NOT triggering (breadth broadening — RSP leading SPY on the 1-wk and 1-mo windows — the skill's disarm signal), and arm (a) fails (1.52× warranted; 1.28× guardrail). Price +3.6% since the last report; Valuation eased 39→38; Timing 54→53; Driver 74→73; Economic Alignment Trend-Following/Tailwind/58 → Neutral/Neutral/50 (XLK flipped to short-Underperform). Competitive trajectory improved 'losing'→'stable' (inference share ~74%). Next update 3 Aug (default +14d).