Do-Not-Buy triggers: leverage + rising rates (low debt, net cash) — clear; valuation 5-yr extreme (cheap, near lows) — clear; negative EPS revisions (estimates rising: 2026 EPS ~$0.85, 2027 ~$1.13) — clear; insider selling spike (founder-aligned, none found) — clear; structural threat (incumbent-bank + Mercado Pago competition and the Brazil credit cycle are real risks — analyst note, not a trigger) — clear. None fired.
| Sub-Signal | Value | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customer / revenue growth | 135M+ customers · revenue +53% YoY · NI +56% YoY | 90 | Q1'26 net income $872M vs $557M a year ago; ~20M net new customers/yr. Top-tier for a profitable bank. |
| Profitability — ROE / ROA | ROE 29% · ROA ~2.7% | 92 | Both far above bank "strong" thresholds (ROE >18%, ROA >1.5%). FMP ROE & ROA sub-scores 5/5. |
| Efficiency ratio | 17.6% (16.6% core) | 95 | World-class — branchless model. Bank "excellent" is <50%; Nubank runs at a third of that. |
| Credit quality (90+ NPL) | 6.5%, improving (−10bps; below 7.0% Q3'24 peak) | 62 | The key risk metric. Trending the right way, but structurally elevated vs DM banks given Brazil-card mix — keeps Quality out of the high-80s. |
| NIM / monetisation | High NIM (~17–18%); ARPAC rising | 70 | Very high gross yields, but NIM compressing as mix shifts to lower-yield secured lending and Mexico deposits — the market's core worry. |
| Capital / balance sheet | CET1 ~22% · net cash · D/E 0.25 | 88 | Heavily capitalised, deposit-funded; ample buffer to absorb credit stress. |
| Industry benchmark (ROE + Efficiency) | ROE 29% + Eff 17.6% | 95 | Per the bank scorecard (ROE >15% + Eff <55% → 90–100) this is decisively top-band — profitable and operationally exceptional. |
Moat average ~69. The structural edge is cost: a digital-only bank serving 135M people at a 17.6% efficiency ratio can profitably bank customers incumbents can't, and reinvest a 29% ROE into Mexico and Colombia. Capital allocation is disciplined — no dividend (correct at this growth/ROE), founder-led ownership, measured international expansion. Confidence 74% — the banking operating metrics (NPL, efficiency, CET1, ARPAC) are sourced from the Q1'26 release rather than the structured data feed, and EM disclosure carries inherent uncertainty.
| Reference (weight) | Reading | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector median (25%) | Fwd P/E 14.9x ('26) / 11.2x ('27); P/TBV 5.4x | 62 | Cheap on forward earnings for a 30%+ grower; richer than EM banks on P/TBV — but those earn 12–15% ROE, not 29%. Net: fair-to-attractive. |
| Own historical decile (20%) | Decile ~2 of 10 | 80 | After −33% from the high and near the 52-wk low, trades at the low end of its post-IPO multiple range (peaked >30x P/E; now 19x trailing / 15x fwd). |
| Growth-adjusted PEG (15%) | PEG ~0.44 (fwd ~0.59) | 85 | ~15x forward P/E against ~30%+ forward EPS growth. Cheap on the growth it is actually delivering. |
| Reverse DCF (25%) | Implied growth < consensus | 75 | At a $61.6B cap / $45.4B EV the market prices low-20s% earnings growth — below consensus ~30%+ and the company's own 50%+ recent trajectory. The market is the pessimist. |
| Analyst consensus (15%) | 26% upside to $15.98; grades 59% bullish; targets recently cut | 62 | Price >20% below consensus (a strong signal) — but tempered: only 3 analysts issued targets last month (avg $14.30, down from $17.49 a year ago) and two June downgrades (BofA, Susquehanna). |
| Horizon (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Brazil Selic hiked to ~15% (restrictive) through 2025–26; consumer-credit stress rose and 90+ NPLs peaked at 7.0% (Q3'24); BRL volatile. A mixed-to-negative two-year backdrop. | 45 |
| Current (50%) | High Selic lifts gross card yields but raises funding costs and compresses NIM as the book shifts to secured/lower-yield lending; NPLs are now improving (6.5%, off the peak) — a constructive inflection — while EM risk-off + a strong USD pressure the BRL. Net: balanced. | 53 |
| Forward (25%) | Brazil inflation easing should open a Selic-cut cycle over 6–12 months — a tailwind to credit quality, funding costs and the multiple; secular LatAm digital-banking penetration plus Mexico/Colombia scaling are multi-year positives. | 62 |
Amplification role: 53 sits in the Neutral band (50–64) → no amplification. The base BUY (medium/long) stays BUY rather than STRONG BUY, and the base HOLD (short) is untouched. The pillar scores are not modified by the driver in v6. Thesis floor: a Brazil consumer-credit recession driving 90+ NPLs durably back above ~8–9% with sharp NIM compression, or a severe BRL devaluation, would be the driver-level break. Confidence 60% — the driver is an indirect, EM-volatile force and the forward Selic path is uncertain.
| Source | NU is not individually in the macro watchlist, but its closest peers are: SOFI & DLO (both XLF/EM) are rated Short Underperform · Medium Neutral · Long Outperform, and EM equities (EEM) carry the same S U / M N / L O profile. Regime: Stagflation (oil shock + hawkish Fed). Macro report date: 2026-06-13. |
| Economic pressure | Headwind near-term → Neutral medium → Tailwind long |
| Stance | Contrarian near-term — going long an EM digital lender fights the report's EM-risk-off / strong-USD caution; trend-following at the long horizon. |
| Conviction | 55 / 100 |
The cross-current, reconciled: the macro report's near-term view is risk-off for EM — a hawkish Fed (Warsh's first FOMC, 17 Jun), a strong USD, the Iran/Hormuz oil shock and private-credit stress all argue against EM financials in the next few weeks. That is the Headwind, and it is why Short is HOLD. But two things make the Contrarian long defensible at longer horizons: (1) the macro report itself flips EM/EEM to Outperform at the long horizon on de-dollarisation and EM growth; and (2) NU is down ~33% to ~15x forward earnings at a 29% ROE with NPLs improving — the valuation already discounts much of the FX/credit risk the near-term macro worries about. Conviction 55 — justified but not high, because the USD/Selic/BRL headwind is real today. For amplification: short pressure is a Headwind but the base is HOLD (never amplifies); long pressure is a Tailwind but the driver is only 53 (<65) — so no STRONG signal fires at any horizon.
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend & confluence | Monthly uptrend, but weekly downtrend (support breakdown) + daily strong-downtrend below SMA50/200; hourly & 15-min bouncing | 49 |
| Risk-reward / position-risk | Support $11.78 / $11.51 / $11.20; stop below $10.90 (~ATR-sized). 52-wk position ~20% (near lows) | 45 |
| Macro overlay | Hawkish Fed, strong USD, EM/financials out of favour near-term; VIX 16 (OK), curve +0.38 (normal-flat) | 38 |
| Sentiment | Two June downgrades (BofA, Susquehanna) vs a March UBS upgrade; estimates rising — net mixed-negative momentum | 42 |
| Catalyst layer | Q2 earnings ~mid-Aug (not imminent); 12 Jun operational-error news minor — calm-ish calendar | 58 |
Daily RSI 46.8 (neutral), the daily MACD histogram has just turned positive (+0.06), and the hourly/15-min trends are up — the green shoots of a base near the $11.20–$11.78 shelf — but the weekly and daily trends are still down and price ($12.72) is below the daily SMA50 ($13.58) and SMA200 ($15.42). The stock has also badly lagged (down ~33% while EM equities rallied). Constructive fundamentals + a weak, unconfirmed trend = Medium/Long BUY but Short HOLD. Timing confidence 66% (no earnings within 14 days; intraday volume data was thin).
| Date | Event | Impact | Relevance to NU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun | BOJ rate decision (hike to ~1.00% expected) | Medium (indirect) | A hawkish BOJ feeds yen-carry-unwind risk-off — a broad EM/risk-asset headwind. |
| 17 Jun | FOMC — Warsh's first meeting (hawkish hold expected) | High (indirect) | USD direction is the channel: a hawkish surprise (stronger USD) pressures the BRL and NU's USD-reported book and valuation. |
| 25 Jun | US Core PCE (May) | Medium | A sticky print reinforces the hawkish-Fed / strong-USD setup that weighs on EM financials. |
| Ongoing | Brazil Copom / Selic & BRL | High (company) | The single most important macro variable for NU — funding cost, credit quality and FX all key off it. |
| ~mid-Aug | Q2 2026 earnings (company) | High (company) | NPL/NIM trajectory, ARPAC, and the Mexico/Colombia ramp — the next fundamental re-rate catalyst. |
Summary: No company-specific binary within 14 days, so no WAIT override — but a high-impact macro event (FOMC, 17 Jun) lands within a day, and NU has medium macro sensitivity, which is already reflected in the timing confidence. The relevant read for NU is the dollar and the Brazil rate path rather than a single dated US release; the big company swing factor is the ~mid-August Q2 print.
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | Breakout | Key S / R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | 46.8 | Resistance breakout | S: $10.18 · R: $14.08 / $16.14 / $18.98 |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | 41.0 | Support breakdown | S: $11.20 / $11.78 · R: $15.81 / $16.43 |
| Daily | Strong downtrend ↓ | 46.8 | MACD hist turning + | S: $11.20 / $11.51 / $11.78 · R: $14.66 / $15.40 |
| Hourly | Strong uptrend ↑ | 63.0 | Resistance breakout | S: $12.00 · R: $12.80 |
| 15-min | Strong uptrend ↑ | 53.6 | — | S: $12.35 · R: $12.80 |
| Confluence: Mixed / transitioning | MTF Score: 49 | |||
Interpretation: Price ($12.72) sits below the daily SMA50 ($13.58) and SMA200 ($15.42), with weekly and daily both in downtrends — the dominant picture is still a correction. But the hourly/15-min have flipped up and the daily MACD histogram has turned slightly positive near the $11.20–$11.78 support shelf, hinting at a base forming; it is unconfirmed. The monthly remains in an uptrend (price still above its rising SMA50), which is the constructive backdrop the lower timeframes are pulling against. A daily close back above ~$15.40 (reclaiming the SMA200) would be the first real evidence the downtrend has broken; losing $11.20 (the 52-wk low) reopens lower levels.
Dashed: fair value $15.00 · support $11.78 / $11.20 · stop $10.90 · SMA50. Path: $18.76 high (late Jan) → steady de-rate → $11.20 low (early Jun) → basing near $12.72.
Brazil begins a Selic-cut cycle, NPLs keep improving, NIM stabilises, Mexico inflects toward profitability and customer/ARPAC growth continues; the multiple re-rates toward 18–20x forward and the $21 high target.
~25–30% earnings growth, mix-shift continues, NPLs plateau ~6–7%, Mexico still investing; re-rates from ~15x toward ~17–18x forward. Aligns with the $14.95–$15.98 consensus band.
A Brazil consumer-credit recession pushes 90+ NPLs back above 8%, BRL devalues, NIM compression deepens and the Mexico burn extends; the multiple de-rates on EM risk-off and the $11.20 low gives way.
Probability-weighted ≈ 0.30×19.0 + 0.45×15.5 + 0.25×9.5 = $15.05, in line with the $15.00 fair-value estimate (~+18%).
Position sizing not computed — specify your allocation and role for sizing guidance. Risk context:
| Beta vs SPY | ~0.95 | Market-like on paper, but Brazil-concentration, BRL FX and credit-cycle idiosyncratic risk dominate realised volatility. |
| Daily ATR | ~$0.50 (~4% of price) | High intraday range; set stops outside the noise (the $10.90 stop sits just under the $11.20 52-wk low). |
| ~6-mo drawdown | ~−33% | $18.98 high → $11.20 low. Volatile; size for the bear case. |
| EM concentration | Brazil-heavy | Revenue concentrates in Brazil (Mexico/Colombia still small) + FX — a satellite/speculative-leaning position despite the franchise quality, not a low-volatility core. |
Staggered entry: given the downtrend, consider tranches — one near current ~$12.70, one into the $11.20–$11.78 support shelf, one on a confirmed daily close back above the SMA50/200 — to average around the trend uncertainty rather than committing all at once.
calibration-NU-20260616-1703.json.{
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:NU", "isin": "KYG6683N1034", "date": "2026-06-16", "version": "v6",
"storage_ticker": "NU", "api_ticker": "NU", "country_table": "US", "company": "Nu Holdings Ltd.",
"price_at_rating": 12.72, "currency": "USD", "lifecycle_stage": "high-growth-to-growth", "sector": "Fintech / Digital Banking (EM)",
"analysis_status": "on-going", "finder_ticker": "NU", "finder_exchange": "🇺🇸 NYSE", "section": "Emerging-Market Equities",
"signal_short": "HOLD", "signal_medium": "BUY", "signal_long": "BUY",
"composite_short": 58, "composite_medium": 65, "composite_long": 71,
"quality_score": 81, "valuation_score": 67, "timing_score": 45, "driver_score": 53,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Contrarian", "economic_alignment_conviction": 55,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Headwind (near-term) -> Tailwind (long)", "economic_alignment_source": "peer/EEM (SOFI,DLO,EEM)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-13", "overall_confidence": 66,
"quality_detail": { "roe_pct": 29, "roa_pct": 2.7, "efficiency_ratio_pct": 17.6, "npl_90plus_pct": 6.5, "npl_trend": "improving (off 7.0% Q3'24 peak)", "customers_m": 135, "rev_growth_yoy_pct": 53.4, "net_margin_pct": 18.1, "cet1_pct": 22, "moat_score": 69 },
"valuation_detail": { "fwd_pe_2026": 14.9, "fwd_pe_2027": 11.2, "pe_ttm": 19.4, "peg_ttm": 0.44, "p_tbv": 5.38, "p_b": 4.91, "fmp_rating": "B", "consensus_target": 15.98, "median_target": 14.95, "target_high": 21, "target_low": 13, "upside_to_consensus_pct": 25.6, "recent_target_note": "3 analysts last month avg $14.30; down from $17.49 last-yr avg; 2 June downgrades" },
"timing_detail": { "mtf_score": 49, "confluence": "mixed/transitioning", "rsi_daily": 46.8, "rsi_weekly": 41.0, "trend": {"monthly":"uptrend","weekly":"downtrend","daily":"strong_downtrend","hourly":"strong_uptrend"}, "sma50_daily": 13.58, "sma200_daily": 15.42, "support": [11.78,11.51,11.20], "resistance": [14.66,15.40,15.81] },
"driver": { "primary": "LatAm consumer credit cycle + Brazil rates/FX", "label": "Neutral", "subscores": [45,53,62], "amplification": "none" },
"fair_value_est": 15.00, "stop_loss": 10.90, "target_price": 15.50, "next_earnings": "2026-08-13",
"scenarios": { "bull": {"p":30,"px":19.0}, "base": {"p":45,"px":15.5}, "bear": {"p":25,"px":9.5} },
"entry_criteria_met": 1, "entry_criteria_total": 3, "exit_criteria_met": 0, "exit_criteria_total": 3,
"gates_triggered": [], "gates_caution": ["Credit quality / NPL (elevated though improving)","BRL FX","NIM compression / mix-shift","EM regulatory","operational-risk (12 Jun liquidation-notice error)"],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [], "hard_gate_state": "caution",
"focus_qualifies": false, "focus_reason": "Short signal HOLD; entry criteria 1/3 (< half); in a confirmed weekly/daily downtrend below SMA200 — not on the cusp of a short-term entry.",
"first_report": true,
"next_update_date": "2026-06-30", "next_check_date": "2026-06-30",
"next_update_basis": "2-week re-check: monitor post-FOMC(Warsh, 17 Jun)/BOJ + Brazil Copom EM-risk-off and the BRL, and whether the weekly/daily downtrend stabilises near the $11.20-11.78 support shelf; full re-rate at Q2'26 earnings (~mid-Aug: NPL/NIM/Mexico read)."
}
Plain-language summary: NYSE:NU at $12.72 — an elite, cheap LatAm digital bank (29% ROE, 17.6% efficiency, 135M customers, improving NPLs, ~15x→11x forward P/E, 26% below consensus) caught in a weekly/daily downtrend below its 200-day and facing a near-term EM/USD macro headwind. Short HOLD (wait for the trend to turn), Medium & Long BUY (the franchise dominates). No gates or Do-Not-Buy triggers fired; a CAUTION flag sits on EM credit/FX. Confidence 66% — timing-pillar noise plus EM-FX/disclosure risk, not core data gaps.