NASDAQ:NTES NetEase, Inc.

Lifecycle & sector: Communication Services / Interactive Media & Games (China), classified Mature — mid-single-digit revenue growth, deeply profitable, cash-rich. Metric focus is therefore P/E, FCF yield, ROE/ROIC, margin durability and franchise longevity rather than hyper-growth unit economics.

Moat average ≈ 70 — sub-scores derived from the Competitive Environment read below, not asserted.

→ Net effect on moat: Switching Costs held at 68, Cost Advantage 70, Pricing Power trimmed to 62 for Tencent's distribution edge. Overall competitive threat level: moderate.

Implied-growth read: at ~15.5x clean earnings the market is pricing only mid-single-digit durable growth — below what the pipeline + buyback shrinkage can plausibly deliver, so the price embeds less growth than the fundamentals support.

Constructive near-term action — the daily has recovered above its 50-DMA (~$119.4) with RSI 58 and MACD turning up — but the setup is mixed: price ($127.24) is still below the 200-DMA (~$129.5), the weekly trend reads down, and the tool's cross-timeframe confluence is bearish. Sitting mid-range in a $106-$159.55 52-week band. A clean daily close above the 200-DMA on volume is the swing trigger.

Key levels — support $114 then $106.06 (52-wk low / May spike low); resistance the 200-DMA ~$129.5, then $141-$149 and the $159.55 high. Stop reference ~$104. Relative strength vs the broad tape is modest — a China-ADR beta-0.8 name.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

NetEase is only loosely coupled to the US macro tape — its operative drivers are the China consumer and the NPPA licence cycle. US prints matter indirectly, via USD / rate-path effects on EM-ADR risk appetite. The genuinely impactful dated event is NetEase's own Q2 2026 earnings (~mid-August), which falls beyond this report's 14-day refresh window, so the next update is the default +14d.

Longer frames are constructive (monthly uptrend, weekly MACD improving) while the near-term frames are soft — the daily has reclaimed its 50-DMA but the hourly/15-min are weakening and price is capped just under the 200-DMA (~$129.5). Net confluence reads bearish. The base matrix still makes Short a BUY (High Quality + Attractive Valuation → BUY at every horizon), but the unconfirmed tape is why it is a Half-Size, accumulate-on-weakness BUY rather than a table-pounder — full size waits for a daily close above the 200-DMA on volume.

NASDAQ:NTES daily close, mid-Mar to 1 Jul 2026. Recovered off the $106 May low to the high-$120s; now testing the 200-DMA (~$129.5) from below. Fair value ~$145; stop reference ~$104.

Probability-weighted fair value ≈ $145 (0.30·$168 + 0.50·$150 + 0.20·$100), ~+14% from $127.24. The distribution is asymmetric-up (net cash cushions the downside) but the fat bear tail is structural China/VIE/ADR risk, not company execution.

Forecast: Technical group is the swing gate: a daily close above the 200-DMA (~$129.5, only ~2% away) on >1.5x volume would open it in ~1-3 weeks — MODERATE confidence, since the daily has reclaimed the 50-DMA and MACD is turning up, but the weekly is still a downtrend and a rejection at $128-$130 resets the clock. The Fundamental group is ALREADY met (price ~12% below ~$145 fair value), so a Half-Size starter is available today; the Catalyst group depends on Q2 earnings (~mid-Aug).

Forecast: Stop (~$104) is UNLIKELY in the next 4-6 weeks — ~18% below spot and below the 52-week low; it would take a China-regulatory shock or a broad EM-ADR selloff. Profit-Target (~$158 + RSI>70) is also not near-term at the current pace. Thesis Invalidation is the one to monitor: it is regulation/structure-driven, not chart-driven, and can arrive as a discrete headline.

{
  "ticker": "NTES",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:NTES",
  "isin": "US64110W1027",
  "api_ticker": "NTES",
  "company": "NetEase, Inc.",
  "date": "2026-07-03",
  "version": "v6",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "status_badge": "Starting",
  "finder_ticker": "NTES",
  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
  "finder_section": "EM Equities",
  "user_horizon": null,
  "sizing_html": "not computed",
  "sector": "Communication Services / Interactive Media & Games (China)",
  "lifecycle": "Mature",
  "price_at_rating": 127.24,
  "signals": {
    "short": "BUY",
    "medium": "BUY",
    "long": "BUY"
  },
  "scores": {
    "quality": 82,
    "valuation": 70,
    "timing": 50,
    "drivers": 65,
    "econ_conviction": 55
  },
  "confidence": {
    "quality": 80,
    "valuation": 72,
    "timing": 58,
    "drivers": 62,
    "overall": 58
  },
  "warranted_multiple": 17.4,
  "actual_multiple": 15.5,
  "val_multiple_basis": "clean trailing P/E",
  "discount_rate_r": 0.1,
  "risk_free_10y": 0.0448,
  "erp": 0.045,
  "china_risk_addon": 0.01,
  "g_near": 0.07,
  "g_term": 0.03,
  "warranted_ratio": 0.89,
  "val_band": "attractive",
  "ex_cash_operating_pe": 11,
  "ex_cash_ratio": 0.69,
  "net_cash_usd_bn": 24.3,
  "fcf_yield": 0.09,
  "clean_pe": 15.5,
  "clean_peg": 1.6,
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": -0.05,
  "nonop_note": "non-operating line is a net drag, not an inflation \u2014 reported earnings are operating-quality",
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
  "competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
  "driver_name": "China gaming demand + title pipeline + banhao regulation",
  "driver_label": "Tailwind",
  "driver_amplification_eligible": true,
  "driver_per_horizon": {
    "short": "Neutral",
    "medium": "Tailwind",
    "long": "Tailwind"
  },
  "amplification_fired": false,
  "amplification_note": "driver 65 clears the \u226565 bar but economic pressure is Neutral (medium-anchored) \u2192 no STRONG on any horizon; Valuation is Attractive so the STRONG-BUY valuation guard is not the binding constraint",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 55,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
  "ai_cohort_member": false,
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "gate_caution_reason": "China ADR / VIE structure + ADR-delisting tail + gaming-regulation dependence (not a live binary event)",
  "dnb_triggers_fired": [],
  "entry_groups_met": 1,
  "entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "fair_value": 145,
  "stop_reference": 104,
  "scenario_base_target": 150,
  "scenario_bull_target": 168,
  "scenario_bear_target": 100,
  "scenario_weights": {
    "bull": 30,
    "base": 50,
    "bear": 20
  },
  "analyst_targets": {
    "low": 132,
    "consensus": 154.25,
    "median": 158,
    "high": 169
  },
  "grades": {
    "strongBuy": 0,
    "buy": 27,
    "hold": 5,
    "sell": 1,
    "strongSell": 0,
    "consensus": "Buy"
  },
  "next_update_date": "2026-07-17",
  "next_update_basis": "default +14d \u2014 next earnings (Q2 2026, ~mid-Aug) beyond the 14-day window; no dated catalyst sooner"
}

First report — NetEase promoted from the Stock-Finder 'EM Equities' section (Fit 74) to fill the EM Equities × US grid cell. Finder-promoted, NOT a Donatien Pick → analysis_status 'on-going' (badge 'Starting'). Signals: Short / Medium / Long all BUY — the base Decision Matrix returns BUY at every horizon for a High-Quality (82) + Attractive-Valuation (70) name (Timing 50 only sets the flavour, 'accumulate on weakness'). No STRONG amplification: the driver is eligible at 65 but the medium-anchored economic pressure is Neutral, so no BUY is lifted to STRONG BUY. Entry conviction Half-Size (only the Fundamental path is met; Technical is unmet below the 200-DMA); Exit action Hold.