NASDAQ:NFLX Netflix, Inc.

Lifecycle & sector: Communication Services — subscription streaming platform, Growth stage maturing toward Mature. Revenue +13.4% YoY in Q2'26 but guided to +11.7% for Q3 (the slowest in three years); EPS still compounds faster than revenue via margin expansion and buybacks. Metric lens: platform economics — revenue growth, operating margin, FCF, Rule of 40, ROIC.

Competitive moat scorecard

Moat score = 67 (avg; was 71 — trimmed on intensifying competition, per the environment read below).

→ Net effect on the moat: Switching Costs trimmed to 45, Cost Advantage held at 80 (scale edge intact). Overall competitive-threat level: moderate — leader status secure, but consolidation + the content-cost arms race + a maturing password-sharing tailwind cap the quality trajectory. This propagates to the §11 Bear trigger and the §12 thesis-invalidation.

ROIC & capital allocation

Top-decile ROIC (~25%+). Capital allocation disciplined: content spend is ROI-gated, the company walked away from overpaying for Warner Bros. Discovery, and buybacks are steadily shrinking the share count. Management skin-in-the-game moderate (~60). Capital-allocation sub-score ~78.

FCF yield (universal anchor): ~4.2% on EV — fair-to-attractive for a quality compounder. Reverse-DCF: at $67.60 the market implies ~9-10% long-run growth; our disciplined estimate is ~12% → the price embeds less growth than the fundamentals support.

FMP rating B (3/5): ROE 5, ROA 5 (elite), but P/E 1 and P/B 1 flag the still-premium absolute multiple — consistent with our “edge of Attractive, not deep-value” read.

Multi-timeframe: confluence strongly bearish — monthly, weekly, daily, hourly and 15-min all downtrend/strong-downtrend. Price ($67.60) is below the daily SMA20/50/200 ($73.9 / $80.6 / $93.7) and has broken the $70.86 support. RSI oversold (daily 28.6, weekly 29.7) and the earnings gap came on 2.6x volume — a capitulative flush that can precede an oversold bounce, but MACD has not yet turned (histogram rolled back negative on 20 Jul), so there is no confirmation.

Timing 40 — weak. The oversold reading tempers an otherwise ugly tape, but a long needs the trend to turn; this is why the Short base BUY is capped to HOLD (“buy on confirmation”).

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

NFLX is a LOW macro-sensitivity name — the dominant event was its own 16 Jul Q2 print, now passed. The forward calendar is benign for the stock: no NFLX-specific high-impact event inside 14 days, so the next scheduled refresh is the +14-day default. Watch mega-cap tech earnings (28-30 Jul) only as a read on broad growth-multiple risk appetite, not as a direct driver.

Every timeframe points down after the earnings gap. The one two-sided signal is how oversold it is — weekly RSI ~30 and daily ~29 near a capitulative-volume flush — which often marks a near-term low, but the monthly/weekly structure is decisively broken and there is no reversal confirmation. The levels that matter: $65 (earnings-day low) as the line in the sand below, and a reclaim of $73-74 (SMA20) then $80.6 (SMA50) as the evidence a bottom is in.

NFLX 6-month daily (post-split scale). The April peak ~$108 to the 16 Jul earnings gap to $65-69: a -49% decline from the 52-week high. Price is below a falling SMA50; the reclaim of $74 then $81 is the trend-repair test.

Forecast: Fundamental group: MET now. Technical group: catalyst-dependent — needs the tape to turn; a reclaim of the $74 SMA20 is the first tell, $80.6 SMA50 the confirmation, neither projectable at a strong-downtrend slope (Unlikely in the next 2-3 weeks without a positive catalyst; an oversold bounce off $65 is the more likely near-term path but must print a higher low to count). Catalyst group: dormant until the ~late-Oct Q3 print. Net: this is a Fundamental-only, Half-Size entry — the Short signal is therefore capped at HOLD (“buy on confirmation”).

Forecast: No exit trigger is live. The $62 stop is ~8% below spot — reachable in this downtrend, so a scaled/gradual entry is prudent; the thesis-invalidation conditions would need a second guide-down or visible share loss, neither present today.

No allocation or portfolio role was supplied, so position sizing is not computed. Framework note: the §12 Conviction Ladder reads Half-Size (1 of 3 entry paths met — Fundamental only), which argues for a starter / scale-in rather than a full position, and the strong-downtrend tape argues for staggering entries (e.g. thirds at spot, at a $65 higher-low, and on a $74 reclaim). ATR ~$2.8/day (~4% of price) and beta >1.3 mean this trades with above-market volatility; the 12-month drawdown from the high is ~49%. Illustrative only — not advice.

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  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:NFLX",
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  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
  "date": "2026-07-20",
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  "quality_score": 79,
  "lifecycle_stage": "growth-maturing",
  "quality_detail": {
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    "roic_percentile_vs_peers": 88,
    "capital_allocation": 78,
    "management_skin_in_game": 60
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  "valuation_score": 68,
  "valuation_detail": {
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    "implied_growth_rate": 9.5,
    "consensus_growth_rate": 16.0,
    "historical_valuation_decile": 2,
    "forward_pe": 20.0,
    "ev_revenue": 6.1
  },
  "warranted_multiple": 24.9,
  "actual_multiple": 24.1,
  "val_multiple_basis": "clean operating P/E",
  "discount_rate_r": 9.05,
  "risk_free_10y": 4.55,
  "g_near": 12.0,
  "g_term": 3.0,
  "warranted_ratio": 0.97,
  "val_band": "attractive",
  "timing_score": 40,
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    "risk_reward_score": 42,
    "relative_strength_vs_spy": -47.0,
    "relative_strength_vs_sector": -30.0,
    "catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
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  "driver_score": 60,
  "driver_commodity_trend": null,
  "overall_confidence": 45,
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 62,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": 16,
  "clean_pe": 24.1,
  "clean_peg": 1.5,
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  "competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
  "fair_value_est": 84.0,
  "stop_loss": 62.0,
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  "scenario_bull_target": 105,
  "scenario_bear_target": 52,
  "analyst_consensus_target": 99.87,
  "analyst_target_high": 135,
  "analyst_target_low": 75,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 47.7,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 64,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 99,
  "fmp_rating": "B",
  "fmp_overall_score": 3,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": 1,
  "recent_downgrades_30d": 1,
  "short_entry_confirmed": false,
  "short_cap_reason": "Fundamental-only entry into a strong downtrend; Technical & Catalyst groups unmet \u2014 buy on a $74 reclaim or a confirmed higher-low off $65.",
  "entry_groups_met": 1,
  "entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "gates_caution": [
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  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "next_update_date": "2026-08-03",
  "next_update_basis": "default +14d (no impactful event; next earnings ~late Oct)"
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