Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold producer, mining and selling roughly 5.3 million ounces of gold a year (plus meaningful copper, silver and zinc by-products) from a portfolio of Tier-1 assets across the Americas, Africa, Australia and Papua New Guinea. Its core business is simple at the surface — dig ore, process it into refined metal, sell it at the global gold price — but its edge is scale and asset quality: the deepest base of large, long-life, low-to-mid-cost mines in the industry, expanded by its 2023 acquisition of Newcrest. That diversification lowers single-asset risk and lets Newmont keep generating cash deep into the price cycle while funding a dividend and buybacks. For a reader: think of it as the blue-chip, index-heavyweight way to own gold-mining cash flow — durability and capital returns over growth.
Lifecycle: Cash Cow. Newmont is the world's largest gold producer (~5.3M oz/yr guided for 2026), a mature, cash-generative franchise whose thesis rests on Tier-1 asset durability, cost control and capital returns rather than production growth. Q2 2026 (reported 23 Jul) confirmed the shape: record free cash flow, maintained full-year production and cost guidance, an affirmed dividend and active buybacks — offset by a modest revenue miss and an operational wobble (an earthquake near one asset). This is a refresh (no new quarter since the 25 Jul report); the Quality read is unchanged.
| Sub-signal | Value | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability vs peers | Net margin ~38%, EBIT margin ~52%, ROE ~26% | 82 | Top-tier margins for a major on a ~$4,060 gold tape; ROE well above the sector. |
| Cash generation | FCF ~$8.8B TTM; FCF yield ~9%; P/FCF ~7.7x | 84 | Record FCF in Q2; conversion strong. FMP's TTM capex line looks understated, so the exact FCF yield is bracketed ~9%. |
| Balance-sheet health | Net debt light; total cash $9.0B vs debt $5.6B; current ratio 2.5; D/E 0.15 | 85 | Net cash on a look-through basis; interest coverage >70x. Fortress balance sheet. |
| Revenue trajectory | Rev +15% YoY (price-led); volumes deliberately trimmed via divestitures | 62 | Growth is gold-price-driven; the volume decline is intentional high-grading, not share loss. |
| Reserve life / asset quality | Deepest Tier-1 base in the industry; long reserve life | 80 | The real moat — irreplaceable orebodies and permits at scale. |
Moat score ~53 — a gold miner's moat is its assets and cost position, not brand or lock-in. Newmont's edge is scale and diversification (the deepest Tier-1 base in the industry), which lowers single-asset risk but does not confer pricing power.
| Producer | 2026 AISC/oz | Position vs NEM |
|---|---|---|
| Newmont (NEM) | ~$1,680 | Largest scale (~5.3M oz), most diversified Tier-1 base; cost mid-pack. |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO) | ~$1,400–1,550 | Lowest-cost of the majors — higher-grade Canadian assets; the cost benchmark NEM trails, and the name winning the premium multiple. |
| Kinross (K.TO / KGC) | ~$1,730 | Slightly higher cost, smaller scale. |
| AngloGold Ashanti (AU) | ~$1,751 | Higher cost; a Donatien-tracked peer on the same gold tape. |
| Barrick (ABX.TO / B) | ~$1,760–1,950 | Highest cost of the group; NEM's clear cost advantage vs Barrick. |
Feeds the moat: NEM's Cost-Advantage sub-score (58) reflects being below Barrick/AngloGold/Kinross but above Agnico — a scale-driven mid-pack, not a bottom-quartile, cost edge. Share is stable; the competitive risk is Agnico's structurally lower cost curve (a relative-multiple threat), not share loss.
Valuation band: ATTRACTIVE (score 80). On the warranted-multiple anchor the name is cheap against fundamentals, not merely against a rich peer group. No new quarter since 25 Jul, so the valuation read is carried forward with refreshed price/target inputs.
| Lens | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Warranted-multiple anchor (40%) | 0.68 ratio | Attractive — cheap vs its own warranted multiple. |
| Clean / trailing P/E | ~12.0x (trailing 11.8x) | Cheap for a top-quartile-ROE major. |
| Forward P/E | ~8.9x | Very low on next-year EPS (~$10.6 fwd). |
| EV/EBITDA | ~6.6x | Below the 8x guardrail; discounts a mid-cycle gold deck. |
| FCF yield | ~9% | Strong cash return at a cheap price. |
| Own-history decile | ~3rd decile | Toward the cheap end of its 5-yr range. |
| Analyst consensus (15%) | Target $141.9 (median $140), 76% Buy | ~51% implied upside; consensus Buy, 1 upgrade / 0 downgrades in 30d. |
Earnings-quality check (7b): reported TTM diluted EPS ~$8.07; Q2'26 adjusted ~$2.10 with no material non-operating distortion (the mark-to-market / "other income" inflation trap that hits mega-cap AI names does not apply here). P/E and PEG scored on adjusted earnings. The valuation stands on clean numbers.
Underlying driver: the gold price trend (score 60, Neutral). This pillar reads the commodity's own price trend per horizon — distinct from the macro/regime read (Economic Alignment). Gold spot is ~$4,060/oz (GLD $371.41). The 29 Jul FOMC HOLD (no hike) nudged spot toward $4,100 intraday before it faded.
| Horizon | Driver | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short (1–3mo) | Headwind | 44 | Spot ~3.6% below a falling 50-DMA; no reclaim. Caps the short driver and removes short amplification. |
| Medium (6–12mo) | Neutral | 60 | Basing $363–379; the macro Gold signal is now Strong-Outperform, but the commodity's own trend has not reclaimed its 50-DMA — so the driver stays below the 65 amplification bar and medium does NOT amplify to STRONG BUY. |
| Long (6–18mo) | Tailwind | 72 | Central-bank buying, de-dollarisation and fiscal-debasement bid intact; the stagflation-lite regime is gold-supportive. ≥ 65 → long amplifies. |
Materials sector map (XLB) reads short Outperform / medium Outperform / long Strong-Outperform; the Gold asset class reads short Outperform / medium Strong-Outperform / long Strong-Outperform. The 30 Jul macro regime is stagflation-lite — energy shock re-armed, which is structurally gold-supportive. NEM is a gold major moving with that regime, so the stance is Trend-Following with a Tailwind. Conviction 72 — strengthened from 68 on 25 Jul: the macro upgraded XLB-short N→O and Gold medium O→SO / long O→SO. The pressure feeds the amplification (long STRONG BUY); it does not, on its own, lift medium, which is gated by the commodity's own price trend (see Underlying Drivers).
Source: sector-map (XLB Materials S O / M O / L SO) + Gold asset-class (S O / M SO / L SO); regime stagflation-lite · Macro report 2026-07-30
Timing: WEAK (score 45). Marginally better than the 25 Jul read but still a downtrend. Price $93.75 sits below all key daily MAs (SMA20 ~$93.6, SMA50 ~$98.8, SMA200 ~$104.2). The multi-timeframe confluence is bearish (monthly uptrend / weekly & daily downtrend). What has improved: the daily MACD histogram is rising toward zero (momentum less negative), price has held the $88.75 swing low and is basing, and the 29 Jul FOMC-hold spike to $95.76 showed buyers — but today's -2% rejection back to $93.75 leaves the 50-DMA reclaim unconfirmed.
| Timeframe | Trend | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | The multi-year gold bull is intact — the big picture is constructive. |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Below the 20/50-week; MACD negative. The correction since May. |
| Daily | Strong downtrend, basing | Below all MAs; RSI ~47; MACD histogram improving. Held $88.75. |
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~12 Aug | US CPI (Jul) | High | — | — | Yes | The gold real-rates driver; sets the next update. |
| 22 Oct | NEM Q3 2026 earnings | High | EPS ~$1.98 | — | Yes | Next fundamental catalyst; far out. |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul | FOMC decision (Warsh) | Hold 3.50-3.75% (9-3) | Hold | No hike | Gold-supportive (spot toward $4,100 then faded) |
| 23 Jul | NEM Q2 2026 earnings | Adj ~$2.10; record FCF | In-line | Rev miss | Mixed; guidance maintained |
The FOMC hold — this refresh's scheduled trigger — passed gold-positive. The next real-rates read is Aug CPI (~12 Aug).
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | ↑ | 57.6 | + | Above key MAs | Resistance breakout | 0.72x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | ↓ | 44.0 | - | Below 20/50-wk | — | 0.70x |
| Daily | Strong downtrend | ↓ | 47.4 | - (hist rising) | Below all MAs; $88.75 support | — | 1.16x |
| Confluence: Bearish · MTF Score 42 | |||||||
Monthly uptrend (the multi-year gold bull) sits over a weekly/daily correction that is now basing. The confluence is bearish until a daily 50-DMA reclaim confirms — the trigger the WAIT short is pending.
NEM daily, last ~40 sessions to 31 Jul 2026. Basing above the $88.75 swing low; the $98.80 50-DMA is the reclaim to watch.
Gold reclaims its 50-DMA and pushes back toward the spring highs ($4,300–4,500+). NEM re-rates as record FCF + buybacks compound and the multiple expands from ~12x toward the peer/Agnico premium. Analyst high target $175. Requires gold's own tape to turn.
Gold holds the $3,900–4,100 base. NEM converges toward the analyst median ($140) / consensus ($141.9) as cheap valuation, ~9% FCF yield and steady buybacks do the work and the multiple drifts from 12x toward ~15x. This is the most probable path and anchors the fair value ~$134.
A hawkish real-rate spike (Warsh 'will not waver' on 2%) or a growth scare breaks gold below $3,500. NEM retests the spring lows as the multiple compresses; the $88.75 swing low then $76 come into play. The stop is $88.
Forecast: Fundamental group is met (cheap + driver + no earnings), so a longer-horizon investor already has a value entry; but on the SHORT horizon the pure-Fundamental path is capped to WAIT — the Technical group needs a daily 50-DMA reclaim (~$98.80) on volume, or a confirmed higher low holding $88.75, ideally with gold reclaiming its own 50-DMA. Nearest realistic trigger: 1–3 weeks if gold's tape turns.
Forecast: No exit live; price ~6% above the $88 stop. Thesis intact while gold holds its base and NEM keeps its cost/FCF profile.
No allocation was specified, so position sizing is omitted. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait on the short horizon (Fundamental-only, technical unconfirmed): watch for a 50-DMA reclaim rather than sizing in now. Medium/Long investors have a value entry available but should scale, not chase. This is not a recommendation — adjust to your own risk tolerance and existing gold exposure.
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"ticker": "NEM",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:NEM",
"isin": "US6516391066",
"api_ticker": "NEM",
"company": "Newmont Corporation",
"currency": "USD",
"country_table": "US",
"date": "2026-07-31",
"time": "1200",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "NEM",
"finder_exchange": "US NYSE",
"section": "Gold Miners",
"price_at_rating": 93.75,
"price_at_rating_currency": "USD",
"signal_short": "WAIT",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 76,
"valuation_score": 80,
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"driver_score": 60,
"driver_label": "Neutral (short Headwind / medium Neutral / long Tailwind)",
"driver_short_score": 44,
"driver_medium_score": 60,
"driver_long_score": 72,
"driver_commodity_trend": "GLD 31 Jul $371.41 (~flat vs $371.90 on 25 Jul); gold spot ~$4,060/oz. The 29 Jul FOMC HOLD (9-3, 3.50-3.75%) pushed spot toward $4,100 intraday before it faded. Gold still ~3.6% BELOW a FALLING 50-DMA (GLD SMA50 ~$385, price $371.41) and ~10% below the mid-April $443 GLD peak, but the 50-DMA slope is flattening and daily MACD histogram is rising (-3.2, improving) \u2014 an intermediate downtrend that is basing $363-379. 8wk momentum still negative, 4wk roughly flat, 2wk +0.6%. Short=Headwind (below a falling 50-DMA \u2014 caps short driver, removes short amplification), Medium=Neutral (macro Gold-medium is now SO but the commodity's own price trend has NOT reclaimed its 50-DMA, so the driver score 60 stays below the 65 amplification bar), Long=Tailwind (CB buying / de-dollarisation / fiscal-debasement bid intact; stagflation-lite regime supportive).",
"lifecycle_stage": "cash_cow",
"moat_score": 53,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin (Mining)",
"industry_benchmark_value": 59,
"industry_benchmark_score": 90,
"moat_score": 53,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 80,
"capital_allocation": 78,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 9.3,
"forward_pe": 8.9,
"ev_ebitda": 6.6,
"clean_pe": 12.0,
"implied_growth_rate": 0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 5,
"historical_valuation_decile": 3
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 42,
"risk_reward_score": 53,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -17.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -2.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 46,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2
},
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 0,
"warranted_multiple": 17.6,
"actual_multiple": 12.0,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean/adjusted P/E (reported TTM diluted ~$8.07; Q2'26 adjusted ~$2.10, NO material one-off distortion). Scored on adjusted. Base-case gold deck $3,700/oz; AISC margin scored vs spot ~$4,060. Cross-checked EV/EBITDA ~6.6x vs 8x guardrail, forward P/E 8.9x, FCF yield ~9%.",
"base_case_gold_deck_usd_oz": 3700,
"spot_gold_usd_oz": 4060,
"aisc_usd_oz": 1680,
"discount_rate_r": 9.0,
"risk_free_10y": 4.5,
"g_near": 3.75,
"g_term": 3.0,
"warranted_ratio": 0.68,
"val_band": "attractive",
"clean_peg": 0.8,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "low-moderate",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 72,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map (XLB Materials short O / medium O / long SO) + Gold asset-class (short O / medium SO / long SO); regime stagflation-lite",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
"analyst_consensus_target": 141.9,
"analyst_target_high": 175,
"analyst_target_low": 120,
"analyst_target_median": 140,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 51.4,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 76,
"analyst_coverage_count": 37,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 1,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"overall_confidence": 56,
"quality_confidence": 80,
"valuation_confidence": 84,
"timing_confidence": 55,
"driver_confidence": 60,
"economic_alignment_confidence": 70,
"fair_value_est": 134,
"stop_loss": 88,
"target_price": 140,
"scenario_bull": 172,
"scenario_base": 134,
"scenario_bear": 76,
"scenario_base_target": 134,
"scenario_bull_target": 172,
"scenario_bear_target": 76,
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"entry_criteria_total": 3,
"entry_criteria_met": 0,
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_hold_reason": "technical_pending",
"short_cap_reason": "Short base is a capped BUY (High Quality + Attractive Valuation + Neutral Timing), but both the Technical and Catalyst entry groups are unmet \u2014 price $93.75 is below the $98.80 50-DMA in a daily downtrend, and there is no live event (Q2 was 23 Jul; next earnings 22 Oct). This is the pure technical-confirmation cap, NOT the quality-starter override (which requires a Fair-valuation base HOLD from Neutral timing; NEM's valuation is Attractive). Short stays WAIT \u2014 buy on confirmation (a 50-DMA reclaim on volume, or a confirmed higher low holding $88.75, ideally with gold reclaiming its own 50-DMA).",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"exit_criteria_total": 3,
"exit_criteria_met": 0,
"next_update_date": "2026-08-13",
"next_check_date": "2026-08-13",
"next_update_basis": "Aug CPI (~12 Aug) +1 trading day \u2014 the inflation print is the gold real-rates driver and can move the near-term gold trend for this high-sensitivity Materials name in a WAIT short; earlier than the +14d ceiling (14 Aug). Q3 earnings 22 Oct is far out.",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
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"report_filename": "NEM_Signal_v6_20260731_1200.html"
}
Refresh (no new quarter): fundamentals carried from Q2 (23 Jul); the deltas are a gold-supportive FOMC hold, a strengthened macro (Economic Alignment 68→72), and a higher analyst target. Signals unchanged: WAIT / BUY / STRONG BUY.