Changes since 10 Jul ($94.81): Price flat at ~$94.6. Signals unchanged — Short WAIT, Medium BUY, Long STRONG BUY. Gold tape weakened further (spot ~$4,060 vs ~$4,140; GLD 8wk momentum now -10.8%), keeping the short driver a Headwind and — the key call this run — withholding medium amplification to STRONG BUY even though the 14-Jul macro firmed Gold medium N→O (live metal downtrend ≠ unambiguous structural case). Valuation still attractive; warranted multiple recomputed to 15.0x (miners guardrail cap applied), ratio 0.81. New Earnings Event caution (Q2 after close 23 Jul, 7 days) → hard-gate state clear→caution; timing eased to 40. Next update 24 Jul (earnings +1d) vs prior 15 Jul.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Newmont Corporation
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold producer, mining and processing gold across a globally diversified portfolio of tier-one operations in the US, Canada, Australia, Peru, Ghana, Argentina and elsewhere, with meaningful copper, silver, zinc and lead by-product credits. Its 2023 acquisition of Newcrest gave it the deepest reserve base and the widest spread of long-life assets in the sector — the scale that lets it run a lower blended all-in sustaining cost than most peers and generate large free cash flow through the gold cycle. The investment case is a geared, diversified bet on the gold price: earnings and cash flow rise and fall with spot gold, cushioned by by-product revenue, a fortress balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA well under 1x) and an active buyback. This is a factual primer, not a recommendation.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | WAIT | 40 | 40 | Cheap, but gold is in a live downtrend and the tape hasn't turned — daily strong-downtrend, price below a falling 50-DMA, Q2 earnings in 7 days. No confirmed entry path. Buy on confirmation. |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | BUY | 66 | 55 | Attractive valuation + high quality carry the position signal; medium amplification to STRONG BUY is withheld because the gold tape is a live downtrend, not an unambiguous tailwind. |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | STRONG BUY | 74 | 65 | Business quality + attractive valuation dominate at 3-5yr; the structural gold bid (central-bank buying, de-dollarisation, fiscal debasement) amplifies a long BUY to STRONG BUY. |
Next update: 2026-07-24 — Q2 2026 earnings after close 2026-07-23, +1 trading day (production, AISC/unit-cost guidance, buyback pace).
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.
Business Quality
75
High — tier-one scale, low AISC, fortress balance sheet
78
Valuation Attractiveness
79
Attractive — 12.2x clean P/E, 5.8x EV/EBITDA, 12.3% FCF yield, 48% to consensus
86
Entry/Exit Timing
40
Weak — bearish MTF confluence, below a falling 50-DMA, pre-earnings
40
Underlying Drivers
60
Neutral blended — Short Headwind / Medium Neutral / Long Tailwind
60
Economic Alignment
68
Trend-Following (Materials/Gold sleeve favoured medium/long)
70
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅Gate 1 — Financial Distress
Net debt/EBITDA well under 1x, interest coverage ~68x, current ratio 2.4x, FCF strongly positive. No distress.
⚠️Gate 2 — Earnings Event Risk
Q2 2026 results after close Thursday 23 Jul (7 days); NEM regularly moves >5% on prints. Timing confidence capped at 40%. Does not block a BUY on quality/valuation, but flags binary timing risk into the print.
✅Gate 3 — Valuation Ceiling
Actual clean P/E 12.2x sits at 0.81x the warranted 15.0x (attractive band, well below the 1.40x ceiling) and below the miners guardrail P/E line (15x). No ceiling.
✅Gate 4 — Accounting / Dilution
Share count falling on buybacks (1.15B → 1.07B YoY), no SBC red flag, TTM non-operating items are a net drag (not inflating reported earnings). Clear.
✅Gate 5 — Regulatory / Binary Event
No pending binary regulatory event. The Cadia seismic disruption resolved with operations resumed and no damage.
✅Severe Driver Collapse
Gold spot ~$4,060 vs AISC ~$1,955 — a ~52% AISC margin. The driver is in a downtrend but nowhere near the viability threshold. Clear.
Gate summary: one caution (Earnings Event Risk — Q2 on 23 Jul, 7 days out, caps short-term timing confidence). No hard gate triggered and no Do-Not-Buy trigger fires. Hard-gate state: caution.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A high-quality, tier-one gold major: the sector's deepest reserve base, a below-median blended AISC, and a fortress balance sheet.
75
Lifecycle: Cash Cow · Benchmark: AISC Margin ~52% of spot (score 90) · Moat 53 · ROIC top-quartile
Newmont sits in the Cash Cow lifecycle stage — minimal volume growth, high and stable free cash flow, an active buyback and a modest dividend. Scored on the Mining metric profile (AISC margin, reserve life, FCF, ROIC), not on growth multiples.
| Sub-signal | Read | Score |
|---|
| Profitability vs peers | TTM EBITDA margin ~69%, net margin ~35%; among the richest in the sector at current spot | 82 |
| Cash generation | TTM FCF ~$12.1B; FCF/share $11.31; price/FCF 8.3x; FCF conversion >100% of net income | 85 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net debt/EBITDA <1x, interest coverage ~68x, current ratio 2.4x, cash/share $8.09 | 88 |
| Reserve life / scale | Largest reserve base in the sector post-Newcrest; long-life tier-one assets across 8+ countries | 80 |
| Unit-cost trend (watch) | Management guides higher 2026 unit costs (lower production, royalties, sustaining capital, inventory) — a live margin watch | 58 |
INDUSTRY BENCHMARK: AISC Margin
Gold spot ~$4,060/oz − AISC ~$1,955/oz = ~$2,106 margin (~52% of spot). Rating: STRONG (>40% of spot). Benchmark score: 90/100. Even with the metal ~16% off its peak, the AISC cushion is very wide — the risk is trend, not viability.
Pricing power 40 — a price-taker on a global commodity
Network effects 50 — n/a
Switching costs 50 — n/a (bullion is fungible)
Cost advantage 72 — genuine scale + tier-one asset quality give a durable low-cost position
Intangibles 55 — permits, reserves, mine-development know-how
Moat average: 53 — a scale/cost moat, no franchise moat (normal for a miner).
Competitive Environment (§3). Direct rivals: Barrick (NYSE:B / TSX:ABX), Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM / TSX:AEM), Kinross (NYSE:KGC / TSX:K), plus AngloGold and Gold Fields. Newmont is the clear #1 by production and reserves post-Newcrest. Share trajectory is stable — the portfolio is being high-graded (non-core divestitures) rather than expanded, so ounces are broadly flat while peers like Agnico gain relative operational momentum on lower-cost Canadian assets. Threat level low-moderate: no share is being lost in any competitive sense (bullion is fungible), but Agnico's cleaner cost profile is the relative-performance rival to watch, and Newmont's own rising-unit-cost guidance is the bigger idiosyncratic pressure. This feeds a stable switching-cost/cost sub-score, not a decaying one.
| Rival | Position vs NEM | Share trend |
|---|
| Barrick (B/ABX) | #2 producer; copper-heavy pivot; comparable scale | Stable |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM) | Smaller, lower-cost Canadian focus; best relative cost momentum | Gaining (relative) |
| Kinross (KGC/K) | Mid-tier; smaller reserve base | Stable |
ROIC & capital allocation: ROIC top-quartile among majors at current spot; capital allocation 76 (Newcrest synergies delivering, disciplined divestitures, buyback active); management skin-in-the-game 55 (modest insider ownership, no red-flag selling, new CEO Natascha Viljoen executing the integration).
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Attractive on every lens — cheap on cash flow, cheap on the warranted-multiple anchor, and ~48% below consensus.
79
Anchor: 12.2x clean P/E ÷ 15.0x warranted = 0.81x → Attractive band · EV/EBITDA 5.8x · FCF yield 12.3% · decile 3
THE ANCHOR — Warranted-Multiple. r = 4.62% (UST10Y, stamped from the 14-Jul macro report) + 4.5% ERP + 0.0% risk add-on (Quality ≥65) = 9.12%. g_near = 3.75% (consensus ~5% haircut 25%, under the 6% defensive/materials cap), g_term = 3.0%. Two-stage warranted P/E ≈ 17.4x, capped at the miners guardrail line of 15.0x. Actual clean P/E 12.2x ÷ 15.0x = 0.81x → Attractive band. The name is priced below what its own rate-and-growth fundamentals warrant, and comfortably below the sector's rich line — no valuation ceiling.
| Lens (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|
| Warranted anchor (40%) | 0.81x warranted → Attractive/Fair edge | 76 |
| Sector median (20%) | EV/EBITDA 5.8x vs sector ~7-8x; P/E 12.2x vs sector ~15x — below median | 78 |
| Own-history decile (15%) | Decile 3 — bottom third of its 5yr multiple range after the -16% gold pullback | 80 |
| PEG / growth-adj (10%) | Clean PEG ~0.9 on modest cons growth; earnings gold-price-geared, not secular | 65 |
| Analyst consensus (15%) | Price ~48% below median $140 / consensus $142.7; 28 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell; TD Cowen upgraded to Buy 14 Jul; note last-month avg target softened to $134.6 (Jefferies PT $158→$146) | 80 |
FCF yield anchor: ~12.3% FCF/EV — very attractive. Cash is the honest lens here: at ~$4,060 gold the business throws off enormous free cash even with the metal well off its highs.
Embedded optionality / free upside: (1) gold-price optionality — the equity is geared to any spot recovery toward the 200-DMA, and the current price embeds a metal well below its peak; (2) copper/silver by-product credits and the copper-growth pipeline (Cadia, other assets) largely un-valued in a gold-only lens; (3) Newcrest synergy over-delivery and further non-core divestiture proceeds funding buybacks below intrinsic value. Net: the core gold business justifies most of the ~$95 price; the by-product and spot-recovery optionality is roughly free. Implied-growth read: at $94.59 the market implies ~0% real earnings growth — the price embeds less growth than a flat-to-higher gold path would deliver.
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Newmont's fortunes are dominated by the gold price. Perfect execution cannot offset a falling metal, and a wide AISC cushion cannot make a downtrend a tailwind. Per the Step 2b commodity price-TREND overlay, the driver is scored per horizon — a live downtrend is not blended away by a bullish structural narrative.
| Horizon | Read (level + TREND) | Score / Label |
|---|
| Short (0-3mo) | Gold spot ~$4,060 sits ~6.5% below a falling 50-DMA (GLD $372 vs SMA50 $398), ~16% off the April peak; 4wk momentum -6.1%, 8wk -10.8%, only a shallow +1.1% 2wk bounce. Live downtrend. | 38 — Headwind |
| Medium (6-12mo) | Soft-CPI rate relief (Core CPI MoM 0.0% on 14 Jul) helps gold reassert, and the macro firmed Gold medium N→O — but the metal is still in a live downtrend, so the structural case is not unambiguous. Neutral, amplification withheld. | 60 — Neutral |
| Long (3-5yr) | The structural bid is intact: central-bank accumulation, de-dollarisation, fiscal debasement. Tailwind. | 72 — Tailwind |
Amplification role. Blended driver 60 (Neutral). Short: Headwind — removes short amplification and, with the tape rolling over, promotes the gold-price bear (§11) from a distant tail to a LIVE near-term risk. Medium: Neutral — even though macro Gold medium = O and the economy reads Tailwind, the live metal downtrend means the medium BUY is NOT amplified to STRONG BUY (Step 2b: medium amplification withheld unless the structural case is unambiguous). Long: Tailwind (≥65) — amplifies the long BUY to STRONG BUY. This is the 'narrative over tape' guard: we do not STRONG-BUY a producer into a falling metal, however cheap the equity.
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
The 14-Jul macro report favours the Materials sleeve medium/long (XLB medium O, long SO) and Gold as an asset class medium/long (medium O, long O), inside a Stagflation-lite regime where fiscal debasement is the structural gold bid. Short is Neutral: fast-money hawkish real-rate selling capped gold near an 8-month low, and the 10Y at ~4.62% is a live headwind. Position is Trend-Following (long the favoured sleeve) with 68 conviction; the pressure that feeds amplification is Tailwind at medium/long, Neutral short.
Source: sector-map (XLB Materials: short N / medium O / long SO) + Gold asset-class (short N / medium O / long O) · Macro report 2026-07-14
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Weak. Bearish MTF confluence, below a falling 50-DMA, deeply lagging SPY, and pre-earnings — no confirmed entry edge now.
40
MTF confluence 40 · risk-reward 48 · RS vs SPY -18% (3mo) · catalyst clustering 40 (2 events in 14d)
Short-term weighting (Timing 55% / Valuation 25% / Quality 20%) puts the tape in charge, and the tape is bearish. The monthly uptrend keeps the long-term structure intact, but weekly/daily are broken.
| Sub-signal | Read | Score |
|---|
| MTF trend | Monthly up, weekly/daily/15-min down → confluence Mostly Bearish | 40 |
| Relative strength | -18% vs SPY over 3mo, roughly in line with a weak gold-miner cohort — a laggard | 25 |
| Risk-reward / position | Price ~3% above $91-92 support (tight-ish stop possible) but below a falling 50-DMA — mixed; a support bounce is the only favourable setup | 48 |
| Macro overlay (high-sensitivity) | 10Y ~4.62% a headwind; soft CPI a mild offset; regime Stagflation-lite mildly gold-supportive medium/long | 52 |
| Sentiment | 28 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell; TD Cowen upgrade 14 Jul; but PT cuts (Jefferies $158→$146) and 'still speculative money in the trade' commentary temper it | 58 |
| Catalyst clustering | Earnings (23 Jul) + FOMC (29 Jul) inside 14 days → noisy; score 40, reduce size / wait | 40 |
Timing confidence capped at 40% by the Earnings Event Gate (Q2 in 7 days) plus high macro sensitivity into the FOMC.
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.
Upcoming events (next 30 days)
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Housing Starts / Michigan Sentiment | High | 1.31M / 51 | 1.18M / 49.5 | Low | Not gold-specific; a soft consumer read is mildly gold-supportive |
| 2026-07-23 | NEM Q2 2026 earnings (after close) | High | EPS ~$2.20 | — | Yes | Company binary: production, AISC/unit-cost guidance, buyback pace |
| 2026-07-29 | Fed Rate Decision + Press Conference | High | Hold 3.75% | 3.75% | Yes | Rate-path guidance drives real rates → gold; the next regime event |
| 2026-07-30 | Q2 GDP / Core PCE MoM | High | 1.1% / 0.3% | 2.1% / 0.3% | Yes | Growth + inflation read that sets the disinflation-vs-reacceleration split gold trades off |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Core CPI MoM (Jun) | 0.0% | 0.2% | -100% (below) | Gold-supportive: soft core eased the real-rate headwind; NEM popped intraday, then faded |
| 2026-07-14 | CPI YoY (Jun) | 3.5% | 3.8% | -7.9% (below) | Disinflation surprise; one print, not tape confirmation — 10Y still ~4.62% |
| 2026-07-15 | PPI MoM (Jun) | -0.3% | — | below | Reinforces the June soft-inflation window |
Two high-impact, gold-relevant events cluster inside the next two weeks: NEM's own Q2 print (23 Jul) and the FOMC (29 Jul). The soft June CPI/PPI is gold-supportive but is a single-print signal, not tape confirmation — the metal is still in a downtrend and the 10Y near 4.62%. Position around the earnings blackout; the FOMC guidance is the medium-horizon swing.
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 58 | +, rising | S: $60 R: $86 / $135 | Res breakout | 0.3x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 44 | -, falling | S: $92 / $76 R: $112 / $122 | None | 0.5x |
| Daily | Strong downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 44 | -, below zero | S: $91.2 / $92 R: $112 / $120 | Support breakdown | 0.8x |
| Hourly | Recovering → | Neutral | 48 | flat | S: $92.4 R: $95.7 / $98.2 | None | n/a |
| 15-min | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 43 | -, falling | S: $93.5 R: $95.7 | Support breakdown | n/a |
| Confluence: Mostly Bearish · MTF Score 40 |
A textbook 'higher-TF bullish, lower-TF broken' picture: the monthly is still an uptrend (price above rising 20/50-EMAs — the multi-year gold bull), but weekly and daily have rolled into downtrends, with the daily printing a strong-downtrend and a fresh support-breakdown below the $103.8 50-DMA / $103.9 200-DMA. Price $94.6 is pinned between $91-92 daily support and the $95.7-98 near resistance. Until the daily reclaims the 50-DMA on volume, rallies are sells and the short-term tape is not a buy. Watch $91-92 as the line that decides whether the pullback deepens toward $88 or bases.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.
NEM daily closes (Apr-Jul 2026). Down ~17% over three months as gold fell ~16% off its peak; price has broken below the 50/200-DMA cluster (~$104) and is now testing $91-92 support.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.
Bull $172 (25%)
Gold reclaims and holds above the 200-DMA (spot back toward $4,400+) as soft-CPI rate relief compounds with the structural central-bank/de-dollarisation bid; NEM re-rates on its huge FCF and buyback, daily reclaims the 50-DMA on volume. Trigger: two soft core prints + a dovish FOMC guide + gold breaking the downtrend. ~+82% to $172.
Base $138 (50%)
Gold stabilises in a $3,900-4,200 range, the downtrend bottoms and the metal grinds sideways-to-up while NEM's ~52% AISC margin, ~12% FCF yield and buyback close part of the ~48% gap to consensus $140-143 over 12 months. Most probable centre of gravity. ~+46% to $138.
Bear $74 (25%)
LIVE near-term risk, not a distant tail: gold's current downtrend extends — the metal is already ~16% off peak, below a falling 50-DMA with -10.8% 8wk momentum — toward $3,600-3,700 on a hawkish FOMC / 10Y pushing above 4.75%, and higher-2026-unit-cost guidance compresses margins; NEM breaks $91-92 support toward the low-$70s. This is the dial flashing now — the driver's short-horizon headwind is exactly this path. ~-22% to $74.
Probability-weighted 12-month fair value ≈ 0.25×$172 + 0.50×$138 + 0.25×$74 = ~$130 vs $94.59 spot — a favourable skew, but the bear ($74) is a live downtrend risk, not a remote tail, which is why the short signal is WAIT and size should stay tactical into the print.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.
How to read this — the Conviction Ladder
The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open
Fundamental — not MET
Cheap and driver not a headwind — but the driver IS a short headwind, so this group is unmet on the short horizon
✅ Price < fair value estimate $135
⛔ No earnings within 7 calendar days
⛔ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (short horizon)
Technical — not MET
Tape is broken — below a falling 50-DMA, daily support-breakdown
⛔ Daily close above the $103.8 50-DMA on >1.5× volume, OR a tested bounce off $91-92 / $88 support with a higher low
✅ RSI 35-65 (not overbought)
⛔ MACD histogram positive ≥2 days OR turning up off support
Catalyst — not MET
Pre-earnings; no confirming post-print move yet
· Post-earnings move within 24h > +5%
· Guidance raised or maintained
⛔ Volume > 2× 20-day average
Forecast: ENTRY — Technical group (pullback branch): a tested bounce off $91-92 support with a higher low → FORECAST: possible within 1-3 weeks; price sits ~3% above support in a down-tape, so it is within reach on any further gold weakness. BASIS: daily strong-downtrend, ATR ~$3.8, $91-92 is the first cluster; a reclaim of the $103.8 50-DMA is 10%+ away and unlikely before a gold trend-turn. CONFIDENCE: Moderate for the support test, Low for the 50-DMA reclaim. CATALYST branch is earnings-dependent (23 Jul): a >+5% post-print reclaim on 2× volume would fire the Technical/Catalyst path and lift the short off WAIT.
Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position
Stop-Loss — not LIVE
⛔ Daily close below $88 for 2 consecutive days (below the $91-92 support cluster)
Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE
⛔ Gold breaks structurally lower (spot sustained < $3,600, monthly uptrend broken)
⛔ AISC guidance blows out and FCF/margin compresses materially
⛔ A hard gate triggers (distress / dilution)
⛔ A rival (Agnico) takes durable relative share on a structurally lower cost base while NEM's units keep rising
Profit-Target — not LIVE
⛔ Price reaches median target $140
⛔ RSI > 70
· Quality hasn't improved to justify the new valuation
Forecast: EXIT — Stop-Loss $88: possible within 2-4 weeks IF gold's downtrend extends through $91-92 — a live risk given -10.8% 8wk metal momentum, not a remote one. Thesis-Invalidation (spot < $3,600) would require another ~11% leg down in gold — plausible tail, watch the FOMC. Profit-Target $140 is ~48% away — not in view near-term.
Imagine you act at the current price of $94.59 · as of 2026-07-16
What if you bought now?
What if you bought now? You are risking a ~7% drop to the $88 hard stop (and a bear path to ~$74, -22%) to gain the base-case +46% to $138 and bull +82% to $172. Risking: you would be buying into a live gold downtrend (metal -16% off peak, below a falling 50-DMA), ahead of a binary Q2 print (23 Jul) and the FOMC (29 Jul), with the Technical entry group unmet — no confirmed timing edge. Gaining: an ~12% FCF yield and a buyback working for you while you wait, ~48% upside to consensus, geared exposure to any gold recovery, and roughly-free by-product/spot-recovery optionality; probability-weighted fair value ~$130 (~+37%). Read: the medium/long reward-to-risk is genuinely favourable, but waiting for a $91-92 support bounce or a post-earnings 50-DMA reclaim materially improves the entry — hence the short WAIT.
What if you sold now?
What if you sold (or stayed out) now? You are giving up ~+46% base-case upside and ~12% FCF yield to protect against a ~22% bear leg if gold's downtrend extends. Giving up: you'd be selling ~30% below fair value ($135) and forgoing the buyback-driven per-share compounding and the by-product optionality. Protecting: you'd sidestep the pre-earnings/FOMC binary and the live gold-downtrend risk to $91-92 and below. Note: no exit rule is actually triggered right now (stop clear, no thesis break, target far away) — so for a holder this is a hold/accumulate-on-weakness zone, not a sell. Mechanical sellers have no trigger; only a stop-out below $88 or a broken gold structure changes that.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
Position sizing not computed — no risk budget or portfolio role was provided (Mode B general run, user_allocation_pct = null). The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry groups met): there is no entry edge at $94.59, so the guidance is to watch the $91-92 support test and the post-earnings tape rather than size a position now. Volatility context: ATR ~$3.8 (~4% daily expected move), beta ~0.48 (low vs market but high vs gold), 52-week range $56.7-$134.9 with price in the lower-mid third.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
"ticker": "NEM",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:NEM",
"company": "Newmont Corporation",
"currency": "USD",
"date": "2026-07-16",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"price_at_rating": 94.59,
"signal_short": "WAIT",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 75,
"valuation_score": 79,
"timing_score": 40,
"driver_score": 60,
"driver_commodity_trend": "GLD 14 Jul $372.35; gold ~$4,060/oz; ~16% off peak; spot below a FALLING 50-DMA; 4wk -6.1% / 8wk -10.8% / 2wk +1.1%. Short Headwind / Medium Neutral / Long Tailwind.",
"warranted_multiple": 15.0,
"actual_multiple": 12.2,
"val_band": "attractive",
"warranted_ratio": 0.81,
"risk_free_10y": 4.62,
"discount_rate_r": 9.12,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "low-moderate",
"moat_score": 53,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 68,
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-14",
"fair_value_est": 135,
"stop_loss": 88,
"target_price": 140,
"scenario_bull_target": 172,
"scenario_base_target": 138,
"scenario_bear_target": 74,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-24",
"next_update_basis": "Q2 2026 earnings after close 2026-07-23 +1 trading day",
"user_horizon": null
}
Reaffirmation, no flip: Short WAIT (unchanged — gold downtrend + earnings blackout, no confirmed entry), Medium BUY (unchanged — amplification to STRONG BUY deliberately withheld because the metal is in a live downtrend despite macro Gold medium N→O), Long STRONG BUY (unchanged — structural gold tailwind amplifies). Pillars broadly steady: Quality 75, Valuation 79 (still attractive; warranted now 15.0x after applying the miners guardrail cap, ratio 0.81), Timing 40 (weaker — daily strong-downtrend, RS -18% vs SPY). New Earnings Event caution (Q2 23 Jul); hard-gate state moves clear→caution. Next update 2026-07-24 (earnings +1d).
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_company_profile / get_financial_ratios Profile, ratios, FCF, leverage, beta, market cap — full coverage
✓
get_income_statement (6q) TTM decomposition — confirmed non-operating items are a net drag, so clean P/E ≈ reported 12.2x
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis 5-timeframe trend/S&R; monthly up, weekly/daily down
✓
get_stock_prices (NEM + GLD, 60 bars) Step 2b gold-trend: GLD $372, below falling 50-DMA, -16% off peak, -10.8% 8wk
✓
get_price_target_consensus / _summary Median $140, consensus $142.7; last-month avg softened to $134.6
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades 28 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell; TD Cowen upgrade 14 Jul
✓
get_ratings_snapshot A- / 4; DCF/ROE/ROA all 5, P/E & P/B sub-scores low (cyclical)
✓
get_economic_calendar Soft Jun CPI/PPI recent; earnings + FOMC upcoming
⚠
get_earnings_calendar Returned empty; Q2 date (after close 23 Jul) confirmed via web search + company IR
⚠
UST10Y 14-Jul macro state had no market_snapshot; 10Y = 4.62% read from the 14-Jul macro report text (‘10Y pushed to 4.62%’)
Impact on scores: Confidence is capped by timing (40%) not data: near-full data coverage on quality/valuation, so those pillars are high-confidence; the earnings blackout and the FOMC/earnings cluster are what hold overall confidence at 42. The one soft spot — the 10Y read from macro report text rather than a state field — does not change the valuation band (attractive either way).
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.