Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, mining and processing gold (with meaningful copper, silver, zinc and lead by-products) from a portfolio of tier-one, long-life operations spread across the Americas, Australia and Ghana. Its core business is simple to grasp: it pulls ore out of the ground, refines it into metal, and sells that metal at the prevailing spot price — so its profits swing with the gold price rather than with any product cycle it controls. What sets it apart is unmatched scale (~5.3 million gold ounces a year), a diversified tier-one asset base assembled through the Goldcorp and Newcrest acquisitions, and, after a two-year programme of non-core divestitures (>$4.6bn of after-tax proceeds), a cleaned-up portfolio and a fortress balance sheet. For a reader, think of Newmont as the blue-chip, lowest-risk way to own leveraged exposure to the gold price.
Lifecycle & sector: Basic Materials / Gold mining producer, classified Cash-Cow (mature, minimal volume growth, very high and stable free-cash generation, capital returned via buyback + dividend). Scored on the mining metric profile — AISC margin, FCF yield, reserve life, balance sheet — NOT on reported net income (gold miners' GAAP earnings whipsaw on impairments and non-operating items, so they are the wrong lens; see the earnings-quality note below).
nonop_pct_of_net_income ≈ 0.| Sub-signal | Value | Benchmark | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AISC margin (primary) | Gold ~$4,124 − FY26 AISC ~$1,680 = ~$2,444/oz (~59% of spot); Q1 by-product AISC just $1,029 | >40% of spot = 90-100 | 90 | Record producer margin |
| FCF yield | FCF/sh $11.31 → ~11.7% on price; ~12% on EV | >8% very attractive | 88 | Record Q1 FCF; huge cash conversion |
| Balance sheet | Net debt/EBITDA <0.5x, D/E 0.16, int cov ~68x, current 2.44 | ND/EBITDA <2 healthy | 92 | Fortress |
| Reserve life / scale | ~5.3Moz/yr; tier-one, long-life base (post-Newcrest) | >8yr good | 82 | Largest gold producer |
| Revenue trajectory | Q1-26 rev $7.18bn vs $4.87bn yr-ago — price-driven, volumes flat-to-lower | — | 62 | All price, no volume growth |
| ROIC / returns (FMP) | ROE score 5/5, ROA 5/5, DCF 5/5 (FMP A-) | top-quartile | 80 | High returns on capital at current gold |
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrick (NYSE:B / TSX:ABX) | Direct mega-cap peer | Stable | Competes for capital & multiple; similar cost curve |
| Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM) | Lower-cost, lower-risk-jurisdiction peer | Stable / AEM gaining premium | Trades at a valuation premium on jurisdiction + costs — caps NEM's re-rate ceiling |
| Kinross (NYSE:KGC / TSX:K) | Mid-cap peer | Stable | Capital-allocation competition |
| Gold ETFs / bullion | Substitution | Stable | Investors can own the metal directly, bypassing operating risk |
Capital allocation: materially improved — completed >$4.6bn of non-core divestitures, launched a $6bn buyback and raised the repurchase authorization, share count falling ~5% over five quarters, dividend $1.02 (payout ~13% of earnings, very sustainable). Management skin-in-the-game is modest (institutional mega-cap, low insider ownership) — scored 55. The capital-return pivot is the single biggest Quality upgrade vs the pre-Newcrest-integration years.
| Multiple | NEM | Read vs history / peers | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCF yield (universal anchor) | ~11.7% price / ~12% EV | >8% = very attractive | 88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9x | Below miner mid-cycle norms even on record EBITDA | 80 |
| P/E (TTM) | 12.5x | Low for the sector; fwd P/E ~9-10x on 2026E, ~8.6x on 2027E | 78 |
| P/NAV / P/B | P/B 3.0x | Optically full on book, but book understates reserves at $4,100 gold | 60 |
| Historical decile | ~4th decile | Middle of its own 5-yr range despite record gold | 62 |
| Analyst consensus (price target) | Value | Upside from $97.04 |
|---|---|---|
| High | $175 | +80% |
| Consensus (mean) | $144.88 | +49% |
| Median | $139.00 | +43% |
| Low | $120.00 | +24% |
Even the lowest analyst target is 24% above the current price — a strong valuation support. Grades: 27 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell (75% bullish, consensus Buy). FMP financial-health rating A- (DCF 5/5, ROE 5/5, ROA 5/5; P/E and D/E sub-scores the only soft spots). The independent cross-check confirms the cheap-plus-healthy read.
Primary driver: the gold price. Newmont is a price-taker — its P&L is dominated by spot gold, secondarily by copper by-product credits and real interest rates (gold's inverse).
| Horizon (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Multi-year secular bull; gold roughly doubled off 2024 levels to a record | 85 |
| Current (50%) | Gold at a record ~$4,124/oz (2 Jul 2026) vs FY26 AISC ~$1,680 — extraordinarily favourable | 90 |
| Forward (25%) | Structural bid (central-bank buying, de-dollarisation) intact, but the move is parabolic and near-term correction risk is real; macro report has Gold Underperform short | 50 |
Driver score = 0.25×85 + 0.50×90 + 0.25×50 ≈ 76 — Tailwind. ≥ 65, so it is eligible to amplify a base BUY to STRONG BUY where the economy also corroborates (medium & long, where Gold is Outperform/Strong-Outperform). It does NOT change the three fundamental pillar scores. Thesis-invalidation floor: gold sustained below ~$3,000/oz (still well above AISC, but it would break the record-margin re-rate case and the parabola).
Macro-Economic report (26 Jun 2026): asset-class Gold = U (short) / O (medium) / SO (long); Materials (XLB) N/O/SO. NEM is not a macro-tracked watchlist name, so mapped via its GICS sector / the Gold asset-class signal (source: sector-map). Regime = 'Reacceleration lead / Stagflation rising, higher-for-longer Fed' — the metals correction is the short-term Underperform (pressure lags short), while de-dollarisation + central-bank buying keep gold Outperform medium and Strong-Outperform long. Anchoring on the medium horizon → PRESSURE = TAILWIND, stance Trend-Following (going long rides the medium/long economic trend). This Tailwind, alongside the driver score 76, ENABLED the STRONG-BUY amplification on the medium and long horizons; on the short horizon the pressure is a Headwind (Gold U) so no amplification, and the §8 event overlay caps short to WAIT-FOR-EVENT.
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-06-26
Risk-Reward (daily). Price $97.04 just bounced +4% off the $92 support shelf that held on 9 & 30 Jun. Nearest stop below $92 is ~1 ATR (daily ATR $4.30) — a tight, favourable stop. Upside to the $140 base is ~44%, so the reward:risk from here is roughly 8:1 to base. But the daily trend is still down (price below SMA50 $106.8 and SMA200 $103.2; RSI 37, oversold-bouncing).
| Signal | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF confluence | Monthly uptrend (secular), weekly + daily downtrend, hourly recovering, 15-min strong-up — classic higher-TF-bull + lower-TF pullback now turning | 55 |
| Risk-reward / position-risk | At support, ~1 ATR stop, 8:1 to base | 66 |
| Relative strength | Huge 12-mo outperformance off the $55 low, but lagged gold's fresh highs on the recent pullback; vs XLB ~neutral, vs SPY soft short-term | 48 |
| Macro overlay (Materials, 20% wt) | Weak-jobs print today is dovish/gold-positive, but higher-for-longer regime + event week is a wash | 52 |
| Sentiment (grades/news) | 27 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell; last 30d all 'maintain' (UBS maintain 30 Jun); no downgrades | 60 |
| Catalysts | Q2 earnings 23 Jul; CPI 14 Jul; FOMC 29 Jul — moderate density (clustering ~52) | 52 |
Timing 53 — mixed. The secular trend and the bounce are constructive for accumulation, but the swing entry sits under a rate-sensitive event cluster this week, which is why the short signal is deferred (WAIT-FOR-EVENT), not a clean BUY.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | ISM Services PMI (Jun) | High | 54.0 | 54.5 | ⚠ Medium | Services PMI — general risk tone; less gold-relevant than mfg PMI. Inside the 3-day window. |
| 2026-07-08 | FOMC Minutes | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | Rate-path read → real rates → gold. Drives the SHORT WAIT-FOR-EVENT override + next-update date. |
| 2026-07-14 | Core CPI YoY (Jun) | High | 2.8% | 2.9% | ✅ Yes | Inflation/real-rate read — direct gold driver. |
| 2026-07-23 | Newmont Q2 2026 earnings | High | EPS $2.20e | — | ✅ Yes | Company catalyst — record-gold quarter; guidance & buyback pace. |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC rate decision | High | 3.75% hold | 3.75% | ✅ Yes | Rate decision — gold-sensitive; beyond this report's window. |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun) | 57K | 110K | −48% (miss) | Dovish → gold-positive; helped today's +4% bounce |
| 2026-07-02 | Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 4.2% | 4.3% | −0.1pp | Mixed — lower than feared, offsets the payroll miss slightly |
| 2026-06-25 | Core PCE MoM (May) | 0.3% | 0.3% | in-line | Disinflation stalled — supports higher-for-longer |
| 2026-07-01 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 53.3 | 54.0 | below | Softer mfg — mild gold-supportive |
Materials is a HIGH macro-sensitivity sector, so the §8 3-trading-day overlay is live: FOMC Minutes (8 Jul) and ISM Services (6 Jul) fall inside the window and defer the SHORT entry to WAIT-FOR-EVENT. Today's soft payrolls (57K vs 110K) are dovish and gold-supportive — the spark for the +4% bounce. The medium/long thesis is unaffected: those play out across the de-dollarisation / rate-cut arc, not this week's prints.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 58.9 | +, rising | S: 60 / R: 134.9 | Resist breakout | — |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 45.0 | −, falling | S: 92 / R: 112-122 | — | 0.8x |
| Daily | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 37.1 | −, flattening | S: 92 / R: 103-112 | Support breakdown (reclaiming) | 0.9x |
| Hourly | Recovering → | Neutral-Bull | 64.3 | +, rising | S: 91-93 / R: 97.8 | Resist breakout | — |
| 15-min | Strong up ↑ | Bullish | 59.1 | + | S: 94-95 / R: 97.8 | Resist breakout | — |
| Confluence: Higher-TF bull + lower-TF pullback, now turning up · MTF Score 55 | |||||||
The monthly chart is a clean secular uptrend (price far above its rising 50/200-month averages — the gold bull). Weekly and daily rolled over into a pullback that found the $92 support shelf, and the intraday timeframes (hourly recovering, 15-min strong-up) plus today's +4% close say the bounce is underway. This is the textbook 'buy-the-dip in a higher-timeframe uptrend' pattern — the missing confirmation is a daily close back above the 200D (~$103) and the 50D (~$107). Key level to watch: $92 support (thesis stop just below) and $103 for trend re-engagement.
NEM daily, Jan-Jul 2026. Pullback from the ~$132 Jan peak to the $92 support shelf; +4% bounce on 1 Jul. Price below the 50D/200D but holding support inside the larger uptrend.
Gold holds/extends toward $4,500+ (Newmont's own FY26 planning assumption), copper credits stay rich, the $6bn buyback compounds per-share value into a low multiple, and the stock re-rates to the analyst high. Probability ~25%.
Gold consolidates in a $3,800-4,200 band, record FCF continues, buyback + dividend return capital, and the market closes most of the gap to the $139-145 consensus. Probability ~50%. This is the probability-weighted centre of gravity.
The parabolic gold move mean-reverts toward $3,000-3,200 as real rates grind higher / the fear-trade unwinds and Materials rotates out; AEM's premium caps NEM's multiple; a peer (Barrick/AEM) capital-allocation or cost edge pressures the relative. AISC margin stays firmly positive so cash flow cushions the downside — hence a −18% draw, not a collapse. Probability ~25%. Competitive/relative-multiple risk is embedded here per the §3 read.
Forecast: Fundamental group is MET now (Half-Size path open). Technical group ~1-3 weeks: a daily reclaim of the 200D at ~$103 (price $97, rising ~$1-2/session on the bounce) or a clean higher-low retest of $92 would flip it — CONFIDENCE Moderate, contingent on this week's rate events. Catalyst group is date-certain: 23 Jul Q2 earnings — CONFIDENCE catalyst-dependent (consensus Q2 EPS $2.20, +54% YoY; a beat + maintained guidance on record gold would trigger it). Net: a second entry path is realistically 1-3 weeks out, upgrading Half-Size → Full-Size.
Forecast: No exit trigger is live. Stop ($91) is ~6% below spot and unlikely in 4-6 weeks unless gold breaks down through $3,600-3,700 — watch the 8 Jul FOMC minutes and 14 Jul CPI for the rate read. Profit-trim is a $40+ move away.
Buying at $97 today: the reachable downside is the $91 stop (−$6, −6%); the true bear case is $80 (−18%) if gold mean-reverts — but AISC margin cushions it. You are buying before the Technical group has confirmed (daily still below the 200D) and into a rate-event week (FOMC minutes 8 Jul, CPI 14 Jul), so expect chop. Against that: you immediately start capturing the ~44% base / ~80% bull upside, collect a ~12% FCF yield and a growing buyback that shrinks the float under you, and own copper + reserve optionality close to free. Reward:risk to base is ~8:1. Read: attractive to start (Half-Size) now; waiting for a 200D reclaim or the post-earnings print materially improves the technical odds without giving up much of the fundamental discount.
Selling / staying out at $97 locks in nothing on the upside and forgoes the copper + buyback optionality, and you'd be selling ~33% below the consensus fair value. What you'd protect: the ~18% bear drawdown if gold unwinds. But no exit rule is live — stop not hit, thesis intact, gold at a record, profit-target far above. Read: there is no mechanical reason to sell; this is an accumulate/hold zone, not a distribution zone.
No user allocation or portfolio role was provided, so a position size is not computed. For context: the §12 Conviction Ladder reads Half-Size (1 of 3 entry paths met — Fundamental only), i.e. a starter/scale-in rather than a full position. Volatility context: daily ATR ~$4.30 (~4.4% of price), beta 0.455 (gold miners are low-beta to the S&P but high-beta to gold). A confirmed 200D reclaim or a post-earnings beat would upgrade the ladder to Full-Size.
{
"ticker": "NEM",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:NEM",
"isin": "US6516391066",
"api_ticker": "NEM",
"company": "Newmont Corporation",
"country_table": "US",
"date": "2026-07-02",
"time": "1200",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "NEM",
"finder_exchange": "US NYSE",
"section": "Gold Miners",
"canadian_listing_note": "TSX:NGT unvalidated via data source; using US NYSE listing",
"price_at_rating": 97.04,
"signal_short": "WAIT_FOR_EVENT",
"signal_medium": "STRONG_BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "STRONG_BUY",
"quality_score": 75,
"valuation_score": 79,
"timing_score": 53,
"driver_score": 76,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"lifecycle_stage": "cash_cow",
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin (Mining)",
"industry_benchmark_value": 59,
"industry_benchmark_score": 90,
"moat_score": 52,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 80,
"capital_allocation": 74,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 11.7,
"forward_pe": 9.8,
"ev_ebitda": 5.9,
"implied_growth_rate": 2,
"consensus_growth_rate": 5,
"historical_valuation_decile": 4
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 55,
"risk_reward_score": 66,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -6.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -1.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 52,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2
},
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 0,
"clean_pe": 12.5,
"clean_peg": 0.17,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "low",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 74,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-26",
"analyst_consensus_target": 144.88,
"analyst_target_high": 175,
"analyst_target_low": 120,
"analyst_target_median": 139,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 49.3,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 75,
"analyst_coverage_count": 36,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"overall_confidence": 60,
"quality_confidence": 78,
"valuation_confidence": 88,
"timing_confidence": 60,
"driver_confidence": 62,
"economic_alignment_confidence": 72,
"fair_value_est": 140,
"stop_loss": 91,
"target_price": 140,
"scenario_bull": 175,
"scenario_base": 140,
"scenario_bear": 80,
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"FOMC Minutes / ISM Services 3-day overlay (short-term timing only)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"entry_criteria_total": 3,
"entry_criteria_met": 1,
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"exit_criteria_total": 3,
"exit_criteria_met": 0,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-09",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-09",
"next_update_basis": "FOMC Minutes 2026-07-08 +1d (rate-sensitive high-impact release, high-sensitivity Materials sector; Q2 earnings 2026-07-23 beyond window)",
"price_at_rating_currency": "USD",
"scenario_base_target": 140,
"scenario_bull_target": 175,
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"report_filename": "NEM_Signal_v6_20260702_1200.html"
}